Is This Primary Irreversibly Shredding the Democratic Party? I'm Skeptical.

I want Clinton vs. Obama to be over too. For a while we had a vigorous debate about issues, experience, and how to change America. That time is long past (deceased circa March 4), and now it's just gotten ugly.

However, what may be uglier than the campaigns' recent below-the-belt jabs ("You know Bill Ayers!" "Well you know the Weather Undergound too!") is the media's insistent pushing of the storyline that this protracted primary campaign is irreparably damaging the Dems' chances come November.

I just don't see it, no matter how many experts they parade in front of me on cable news citing poll after poll of polarized Democrats. According to them, alarming numbers of Obama supporters that will absolutely never support Clinton and, likewise, many Clinton supporters that will absolutely never support Obama. (Heck, double-digits are willing to defect to McCain!)

Here's my problem: these polls are being taken at a time of fever-pitch, dug-in primary-season intensity in April. We're six-and-a-half months away from the general election. Six-and-a-half months ago -- in ancient September 2007 -- Senator Clinton was the "inevitable" candidate and Rudy Giuliani (!) was the Republican favorite. That came according to the same pundits, pollsters, and experts feeding us this week's story about this disastrous Democrat implosion.

A lot happens in six-and-a-half months.

While John McCain may be getting far more sleep and spending far less cash than Obama or Clinton right now, I'm skeptical that supporters of either Clinton or Obama -- candidates with similar policy platforms -- would stay home and let John McCain -- the political antithesis of their favorite candidate -- walk into the White House if their favorite doesn't get the nomination. Get ready for heresy: this week's polls on that subject are misleading trash!

As we've learned from both primary races, it doesn't really matter who has the upper hand six-and-a-half months from Election Day. The talking heads need to calm down.

Dan Brown is the author of "The Great Expectations School."

Follow Dan Brown on Twitter: www.twitter.com/danbrownteacher

Comments

[DallasMike]

04:36 PM on 04/25/2008

This is no different than the media pushing thes so called experts on Global Warming down our throats.
Hell Gore won't even answer questions about the food shortage and hoe his Global Warming crusade may have effected it.

[Marlyn]

10:03 AM on 04/25/2008

My view is that there is NO DIFFERENCE between Clinton and McCane. I'll never vote for either one of those WAR MONGERS. I'm so sick of the Neocons and what they are doing to America. Hillary has sold out to them (or perhaps she was always in their pocket). I don't trust her to choose LIBERAL judges for the Supreme Court. She has personally distanced herself from the "Liberal" label.

If Hillary is the Democratic candidate, I'll drop out of the Democratic Party. Would I EVER vote for a Republican? Silly question, of course not.

Barack Obama is America's last hope.

[halfdemhalfgop]

10:48 AM on 04/25/2008

The Times of London thinks there is NO DIFFERENCE between Clinton and Obama.
"Obama and Clinton: two cynical losers" was one of the headlines today.

[Marlyn]

10:52 AM on 04/25/2008

like that makes it true ???????????????

[Titonwan]

09:59 AM on 04/25/2008

Apparently my comments are too controversial for your controversial op/ed. I find, that by voicing my opinion, is somehow counterproductive to your agenda, gives you reason to exclude my previous comments. That's fine. I know other ways to get my opinion hear-namely the owner of this website. You can't censor responses on the Huffington Post merely because they hit home and you disagree. You're going to find out that my opinion is shared my thousands of like minded voters.

[holyhandgrenaid]

09:47 AM on 04/25/2008

Mr. Brown, I believe that you are dead wrong. Sure, almost everyone who says that they will vote McCain if their candidate is not nominated is most likely just full of hot air. BUT, consider some basic things that will happen. We have record turnout this primary cycle. Why? because people who usually don't care have been turning out in extraordinary numbers, such as the AA voters and young people. These groups may not cross over and vote McCain if Clinton is nominated, but the damn well will stay home in November. In fact, it would take years for the Democrats to recover, as the young people would remain disillusioned for the foreseeable future. This will tear the party apart, as the Dems always do. It sickens me that one of the main political parties in this country lacks any semblance of unity, or organization, let alone the stones to do what needs to be done.

Sometimes i hate being liberal... theres no one i can count on to get things done

[pdxwoman]

10:03 AM on 04/25/2008

I agree wholeheartedly!!

[cleveyucks]

09:16 AM on 04/25/2008

I think you are terribly wrong. The Democratic party may have already destroyed itself. It has for me. I am terribly shaken that half of the people who belong to this party would support the things I find intolerable in the Republicans; gutter politics, lying, guilt by association, push polling, using racial cues, embracing irrational arguements, abandoning rules for personal advantage... the list goes on. Hillary has embraced this type of campaign against a fellow Democrat at the expense of the party.
I have seen the kind of candidate and campaign that I can support in Obama. I want to vote for integrity, intelligence, the ability to articulate harsh truths, someone who believes we can be better than we have been and strives for that goal.
If the Democratic party chooses Clinton and her style of politics, that fact coupled with the congress who have done nothing since getting the majority to challenge the Bush admiinistration, they will have proven to me and many like me that there is truly no significant difference from the Republicans and I can not and will not support them.

[Relax08]

09:32 AM on 04/25/2008

Thank you for your comment. I'm sitting here trying to eat my breakfast and fuming over the insanity that has developed through the help of the Media that is rewarding those people who break the rules, punish those that stand by their principals and who believe that reason and truth are the hallmarks of a good campaigner and a good politician. Obama is all of those things and through his actions remains on the moral high ground. Hillary on the other hand continues to demonstrate that she and the people she surrounds herself with are the lowest moral character imaginable.

It is difficult to believe that anyone could surpass Karl Rove in filth but Hillary and Bill have in my mind reach that depth of depravity.

[pdxwoman]

10:10 AM on 04/25/2008

You are so right. IMO, it's becoming clear that the DLC is nothing but a republican group who is determined to destroy whatever is left of the democratic party. The way I see it is: If the democratic party cannot or will not deal with these republican infiltrators for the good of the country and our future, they don't deserve our support .

[Titonwan]

08:28 AM on 04/25/2008

This is really starting to piss me off. And your article doesn't help matters. Why is it, that a black man has to do extraordinary things, just to meet the status quo? In World War II, the Tuskeegee Airman trained in the racist south, overcoming titanic odds, just to go fight and lose their lives for a country that didn't even recognize their equality. They not only rose to the task, but excelled at it, never losing a bomber to enemy attack. History is chock full of examples (Civil War, Westward expansion, etc). If you think for a minute, blacks and progressives are going to forgive this outright racist grab for power, you are fatally flawed. It's either going to be redemption or chaos. YOU TAKE YOUR PICK. (the world is watching).

[Titonwan]

08:05 AM on 04/25/2008

You think you know human nature. You do not. This started out as a great reaction to the utter disgrace our country has weathered for 7 1/2 long years of neoconservative tyranny. This is the reason for such great turnout. But to assume people will forgive and forget is ludicrous! (You're out of your mind!). You opine on what you HOPE will be the outcome. THIS is what will happen. You derail Barack Obama's historic run for the White House and you will shatter the democratic party. Black people know this. Informed white people know this. The world knows this. You think for a second that swindling the nomination from the finest candidate, because of his color, will be forgiven, you are gravely mistaken. WATCH :|

[RonnieDebb]

07:15 AM on 04/25/2008

We are in the midst of a heated, epic battle between two historic candidates. The stakes for the presidency were never this high. The supporters on both sides have strong emotionally driven support towards the candidates.

Polarization that surveys show are nothing but logical. But the difference between Hillary and Obama are trivial comparing to McCain. The issues are too important to ignore. I am very confident that the democrats will come together.

McCain is the one who has an uphill battle come November.

[Marlyn]

10:12 AM on 04/25/2008

" the difference between Hillary and Obama are trivial comparing to McCain."

WRONG! That is the media spin. Hillary the HAWK does her best to act like she is ready to PUSH the BUTTON. And McCane? He has shown that he will do anything, eat shit even.

Barack Obama has said that not only do we need to get out of Iraq, but we also need to get rid of the mindset that got us there in the first place.

Obama 08 ...... OR BUST!

[jcwtts1]

06:09 AM on 04/25/2008

Here is why the primary is starting to fray the party around the edges. It is the simple calculus that black votes do not matter as much as white working class votes, when historically in the party black votes are what kept the party in power in the house for firty years. Since the new deal, since the civil rights movement, blacks have voted as a block for the dems. Almost 90 percent in presidential elections, but look at the local elections as well. In Philadelphia, blacks have dominated the democratic landscape, fifty percent of the city, sixty _ of the dem party, blacks elect people in PA.

[jcwtts1]

06:09 AM on 04/25/2008

The culturally conservative reps and dems in the wester part of the state, and for dems the western part starts at Lancaster, fall specifically into three categories, Blue collar union voters, blue clollar/rural voters, and racial voters. Obama got some of the BC union guys, he got less of the BC Rural and Cultural voters and got zero of the Racial voters. That is the split. But here is the rub, Hillary got basically none of the black voters. This theory that the black voter will come back to the fold is insane. It is far more likely that a ticket of Obama and Rendell or Mark Warner or Webb gets the white Union vote in the fall than Hillary gets one single black vote if Obama loses the nomination. I'm talking the nutter 5 percent here, they just aren't going to vote for a democrat for as long as they live. Oh you'll get the occasional insane person but the percentage of blacks will fall bellow 1 percent.

[jcwtts1]

06:09 AM on 04/25/2008

It won't vote democratic ever again. Not even if she picks Obama to be her vp which is her nostrum for the mess the dems will be in. If after he wins big in NC the media continues to shft the burden of proof that is fine, the media does not pick the nom. If after going 68 and 3 in supers since super tuesday Hillary still gets the nomination... Obama, even if he calls for calm and asks people to support the ticket won't get it. Blacks will feel like he is doing the right thing but they won't vote. Not for a ticket headed by her. Not after stealing the election. People may argue about whether she stole it or not, but that isn't the point I am making. The point is that the perception will be theft and the perception will be anger and the dems and the blacks will have to go their separate ways. A lot of dem voters might not understand this but black people are fairly culturally conservative. Huge chunks of us are fundamentalist Christians, opposed to things like gay marriage and immigration. We have a different basic argument on gun control in inner cities but the rural blacks hunt and own guns. We aren't a monolitic people though we have voted in a monolithic way.

[Marlyn]

10:26 AM on 04/25/2008

"Obama, even if he calls for calm and asks people to support the ticket won't get it."

I AGREE. This is a tricky point. The usual political approach is for the loser to endorse the winner, thus unifying the party, and then to run again next time.

But this time things are different. It is not just Democrats against Republicans. This time it is the Neocons against the enlightened. Could Obama say to his supporters "Vote Neocon"? NEVER.

[jcwtts1]

06:08 AM on 04/25/2008

Here are the states that Hillary loses outright if blacks don't turn out in huge numbers as always. Maryland, Ohio, PA, MI, Ill, MO, can't be competitive in FL without black votes, NY (ask the republican mayors for the last 16 years), NJ, I;d have to do a better break down of some numbers but those are the highlights. If detroit doesn't turn out MI goes for McCain, if Philly doesn't turn out, the burbs and the north east can go dem but McCain wins the state, if Trenton, Newark, Jersey City don't turn out, NJ goes Rep, ask Christie Todd Whitman.

[pdxwoman]

10:01 AM on 04/25/2008

I agree with you. I'll add the youth and the previously disenfranchised who are overwhelmingly supporting Obama. The youth who see him as the only geniune non-warmonger will NOT support Hillary. I know I won't. I've never donated or volunteered and I'm over 40. I've been utterly disgusted by double-speak politicians who produces only Marie Antoinnette's 'crumb's for the people and the Clinton-Bush dynasty who have left a trail of blood all over the world.

Clinton has managed to offend nearly everyone in this primary: youth, 'activists', 'small states', 'latte drinkers'....... the list goes on and on. She is NOT a viable candidate for the GE.

The double standard is really striking too. How is it that Hillary and her surrogates can INSULT democratic voters ad infinitum and the media just ignores it, and one sentence by Obama is taken out of context and blown up and spun to make him appear 'elitist' ?

My sense is, if they steal this from Obama, more than half of his supporters will stay home. Why? Simple , because the democratic party will not deserve a shred of support of they deny US the nomination ( yes "us" because he is the Obama is the candidate who won MORE contests, delegates and the popular vote) .

[wayoutleft]

03:07 AM on 04/25/2008

democrats do politics- not policy. they remain well within their comfort zone. john mccain does not really interest democrats. neither of the candidates is interested in diverting attention to mccain when other democrats are so much more interesting. the strategy is to ignore mccain until he is elected; then carp about all the right-wing policies the usual democrat senate gasbags will be going along with thereafter. much to their immense relief, the mccain victory they are preparing for will again let them off the hook on health care, NAFTA, the war, and what have you. the challenge: barack and hillary defining each other negatively enough to assure that no republican policy catastrophe can derail mccain. they are making headway: they have finally clarified that they are lying about ending NAFTA and the war. they may be only one more hillary combat story- or obama outrage against exquisite redeneck sensitivity- away from their goal. god knows the party itself has done what it could: the late convention, the florida and michigan debacles- and the fact that their two survivors split the party along race and class clean as a razor while the mortgage con men blew by them like they were painted on a wall. those who grope for some rationale are already back to the "keep obvious social darwinists off the court" canard. looks like a 4 year rainy afternoon with gramps and the war stories .

[poomplet]

02:57 AM on 04/25/2008

I'm sorry to say, I just can't see a way out of this death spiral

Scenario 1: Hillary gets even MORE weaselesque...pulls strings, bribes superdelegates, whatever, and gets the nomination. I'd say 80% of the black democrat vote would be gone, same with immature, disillusioned college kids...and hardcore liberals. Many will actually vote McCain, as his campaign will effectively play up his 'maverickness' (false as it is).

We lose.

Scenario 2: Obama wins the nomination. There goes the vast, working-class, never-had-an-espresso BITTER vote. Women will be pissed, and above all, inside the voting booth, millions of self-proclaimed non-bigots are going to find themselves unable to vote for a black man. Not just a black man, but a ultra-liberal, terrorist-lovin' (Ayers) uppity' black man. There is so much ammunition the GOP can use, by the time november rolls around, he's going to be Malcom X in the minds of white america.

We lose...actually by a wider margin than if Hillary had won it.

In hindsight...as much as I hate her...had this primary gone smoothy/decisively...Hillary might have beaten McCain (I'm not so sure Obama would have). But she has...well, not just her, but both of them... polarized the party to the point where a significant chunk of solid Democratic voters won't vote for their party's candidate..and THEN you gotta figure the swing voters that are already running away from this train wreck.

It's over.

[Phaedrus21]

07:20 AM on 04/25/2008

I think your scenarios have merit, although I would take exception with the assertion that both of them have polarized the party. Obama has been incredibly restrained in attacking Clinton. He's followed the corollary of Ronald Reagan's 11th Commandment which is "Democrat shalt not attack Democrat".

He could have easily put her away by seizing on the 'sniper' story and running ad-after-ad about how "Hillary is a liar". But he didn't...and now he's being called "weak".

[jeg]

07:53 AM on 04/25/2008

I'm not sure John McCain is nearly as electable as people think he is. He hasn't faced a real challenge this election cycle, and there's plenty of ammunition lying around to make him completely unelectable in the fall.

[LittleSanityLeft]

09:49 AM on 04/25/2008

But he's white, and a war hero. The Republicans will once again define what being American means and being black and articulate isn't going to get it done.

I agree with every one here, the dems are done in November. Even with their men and women dieing in Iraq the dems can't get their shit together. Once Hillary threw in the kitchen sink it was over for the democrats.

[ChicagoNorth]

12:51 AM on 04/25/2008

I was really paying attention to a rather intelligent political discussion until Mar 4 or so when Hillary started going negative. Now I remember why I always hated politics and turned off those foolish talking heads and just read the candidate's positions.

Hell is freeze over before I vote for Hillary! She is creating this ugly mess. Another important situation is that Obama is bringing a lot of Dems with him - he is training "Fellows" this summer. What is Hillary planning for this summer??? To destroy Obama and take the fight to the convention.

Who has the character to lead !?? Obama is a leader who brings people with him -- millions of new voters, grass roots people, helping fellow Dems. Hillary is an empty person who has a fanatical say-anything -do anything lust for power. She helps no one but herself. I can't believe sooooo many Americans are supporting her destruction.

Let's turn off the TV and tell the media we want honest, intelligent discussions - we reject and denounce destructive, trash politics.

[LittleSanityLeft]

09:52 AM on 04/25/2008

"I can't believe sooooo many Americans are supporting her destruction. "

Obama's black and women feel very strongly that "it's Hillary's turn". In other words, believe it.

[Marlyn]

10:51 AM on 04/25/2008

YES Obama is black, half black anyway. So you, LittleSanityLeft, are a racist? That is your argument? That America is full of bigots and we don't want to CHANGE?

Some women (like you) may feel that it is Hillary's turn, but that is NOT how we choose our leaders in the USA.