8 Waving Red Flags Hoisted

On the surface, the U.S.'s failure to win the 2016 Olympic games is no big deal. So it went to Rio De Janeiro instead of Chicago. Too bad, but life goes on. And as far as the stock market goes, judging from its ongoing strength, the loss is pretty much a non-event.

That's not the way it's seen by Selwyn Ortz, a principal of Hong Kong-based global money manager HK Investments, Ltd. He believes the market could eventually face a meaningful setback at some point because of the implications of President Obama's failure -- despite a full-court press -- to induce the International Olympic Committee to choose Chicago as the host city for the 2016 Olympic games.

The Olympics loss, as Ortz sees it, is one of eight red flags the market should be wary of. "The market's adverse reaction to this episode is not something that will happen tomorrow night, but it's on the way," he says.

"Not getting Chicago the Olympics was a significant loss for Obama," says Ortz. One ramification, as he sees it, will be to fire up the Administration's political enemies and make it much tougher for the President to achieve anything of a concrete legislative nature in Washington. Eventually, he feels, the market, confronted by legislative stalemates and much greater political bickering, including within the Democratic ranks, will get the message that Obama's honeymoon is over, and stock prices will be punished.

The Olympics loss, he also thinks, will cause the President to lose some of his international luster and support, which could embolden the U.S.'s enemies.

There's an old saying you can worry yourself sick over nothing. One of academia's leading political minds, Larry Sabato, professor of politics at the University of Virgina, reckons Ortz's concern may be a case in point. Why so? Because while he views the Olympics loss as domestic and international humiliation for the President, he doubts it will have any drastic effects on his ability to get legislation through a heavily Democratic Congress. It was a "memorable embarrassment," for sure, but memories should fade quickly as we move on to other topics, Sabato says.

Speaking of risk factors for the market, Ortz argues that Wall Street is presently blind sided by the widespread and swelling view that stock prices -- despite a more than 50% run from their March lows -- still have nowhere to go but up. Ortz, who believes stock prices, generally, are overvalued based on fundamentals, doesn't buy such optimism, contending the market has enough concerns on its plate to be wary of such exuberance.

In fact, he sees a slew of additional risks, any of which he thinks could precipitate a sharp market decline -- anywhere from 10% to 20%, he believes -- if they become a reality. Noteworthy among them:

• Continued revenue declines, as evidenced in the upcoming issuance of third-quarter earnings reports, which would raise questions both about the ability of companies to boost profits without cutting costs and the viability of the recovery.
• If news on the jobs front should continue to worsen, with no indications of any renewed hirings.
• Any clear message from the Administration that a second stimulus package (which Alan Greenspan recently said was not needed) is definitely out.
• Any hint from the Federal Reserve of some credit-tightening, which most pros feel is unlikely because it would dampen renewed economic growth, but which some insist is only a matter of time because of prospective new inflationary pressures and any renewed decline in the dollar.
• If the Christmas season turns out to be much worse than expectations.
• Any meaningful accelerated selloff in the highly volatile Chinese stock market, which shot up more than 100% between November and August and has since fallen more than 20% in recent weeks. Selloffs in the Chinese market now frequently trigger declines in markets around the world, the U.S. included.
• Any negative earnings surprises from the major U.S. banks, which have evolved into new market darlings, but which are generally expected to post substantially more losses related to mortgage loans.

So there you have it: Eight waving red flags. It all reminds me of a warning Julius Caesar received about the Ides of March. He ignored the warning and, as we all know, it cost him his life. Ortz's admonition: Don't be another Caesar!

Write to Dan Dorfman at [e-mail]

 

 

Comments

[S1m0n]

Wall Street should stick to its knitting.

Wall Street's recent display of incompetence, larceny, and corruption is an epic fail that dwarfs Chicago's inability to win its Olympic bid. The market has FAR more important things to think about - it's behaviour, for instance - than the Olympics.

[Tim303]

I suspect very much that the decision is not a predictor of anything to do with share prices. It's a political decision based on perceptions of fairness (Brazil hasn't had it, South America hasn't had if for a while, etc.).

[listeningpost]

I had to wonder, who is this Selwyn Ortz? A quick google check showed a handful of references, all penned by the same person, Dan Dorfman.
?
What expertise does Mr. Ortz have with American politics. Is Mr. Ortz an American?

I don't think the IOC decision affects Obama's standing one bit.

[bettygg]

You can find someone to give a commentary or quote expressing just about any view imaginable. Doesn't mean it has any merit.

[unitron]

Somewhere on television (I think it was CNBC) I heard this exactly once.

The Asian nations all voted for Toyko in the first round, but there weren't enough of them to put it on top in the second.

As I said, I only heard it once, but I strongly suspect it to be true.

My theory is that if there had only been one round with everybody voting either "yes" or "no" on all of the candidates, and the winner being the one with the greatest number of "yes" votes left after subtracting the "no" votes, the outcome, or at least the order of who came in second, third and fourth, might have been different.

Wish we conducted political elections that way. Then you could vote for your real choice *and* the candidate you'd otherwise wind up voting for in order to defeat the one you fear. This would have kept Perot from taking votes away from G.H.W. Bush and Nader from taking away votes from Gore, and would also have given a truer indicator of how people felt about 3rd party candidates.

[Tim303]

Well put.

[bettygg]

Exactly. That's why it was said that the USOC was wary of the first round. Voters tend to go 'regional' in that round, then which each round more voters are freed up to be independent.
Rio was considered the favorite and Chicago the second choice. That most likely never changed.

[hather]

The author considers himself a commentator. Reads more like a stenographer - no critical analysis, just cut and paste a few digs from an unknown Hong Kong money manager. Could've saved a little time and just posted a link to The Drudge Report ( or The Politico). Guess he'll be home before the evening rush hour.

[dfranz]

President Obama was Bush wacked again. The rest of the world has not forgotten about GW Bush and how he thumbed his nose at them with every opportunity. There is also international concern about the paranoia that swept this country after 9-11. It was heard said by a IOC delegate from the Mideast that it is concerning to visit America because of the VISA policies and the mistrust of any one of color. If you add to this that the USA has been having disputes with the IOC over television revenues since 2002 and the fact that no Olympics ever was held in South America, I's say the cards were stacked against him.

Only a true conservative would blame Obama for the dirt left over by their hero George Bush and try to show how this might affect the market. Give me a break.

[AJH]

The Market shuld be happy it's the IOC's blessing of the globalist international order and funnelling the olympics to the rising stars.

Obama should be happy the right can't play him as the darling of foreign cheese eating wimps. Hard to crown him the head of the global order if he can't get the olympics.

China's market decline isn't surprising. Having the unfettered ability to put their stimulus in play building they will of course burn through it more quickly than we do ours. As long term growth for them remains dependent on foreign consumers getting positive and spending (Neither of which will happen this X-Mas) much to a chinese market analysts chagrin also ensured it.

The Job market will worsten.

Banks will again use the last quarter to write of bad debt running a 3 quarters of positive news 1 quarter of bad news stock value market strategy.