Just You Wait, Barack Obama, Just You Wait

Is it 2012 yet? It sure seems so. Just go online, pick up your newspaper or click on the TV or the radio and speculative stories, largely spurred by Sarah Palin's resignation as the governor of Alaska, abound on President Obama's likely 2012 Republican rival.

For some thoughts on this sudden hot news issue, I rang up Larry Sabato, the director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, viewed by a number of Washington pundits as one of academia's brightest political minds.

The last time I caught up with Sabato was a few months prior to the Democratic national convention. At the time, it was pretty widely accepted that Clinton would be the party's presidential nominee. Sabato had his doubts, telling me she was anything but a shoo-in and suggested I don't underestimate Obama, the man who came from practically out of nowhere.

As of now, Sabato sees three frontrunners. His trio -- in order of his assessment of their chances of capturing the nomination -- are Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty and Mr. X.

Sabato gives Romney, whose chief broad appeal is his business and economic savvy, barely a slight edge over the little known Pawlenty. The academic notes that Romney has been around the track, has national recognition and did reasonably well in 2008, although the Republican party has never fully accepted, embraced or been excited about him. Still, he believes the fact that Romney -- who more or less placed second among the Republican presidential nominees to winner John McCain -- puts him in a good position to snare the 2012 nomination. (Huckabee, incidentally, claims he was the actual runner-up to McCain).

One public relations man who worked for the governor in his losing 2008 presidential campaign, tells me "Romney is hungry for the 2012 nomination, he's actively engaged in laying the groundwork for it and he's convinced he's going to get it and be the next president."

Pawlenty, who was elected governor twice in heavily Democratic Minnesota and has a blue-collar background, is viewed by Sabato as a candidate who offers broad appeal and would be a compelling figure in a general election. Right behind Pawlenty is a mystery man, Mr. X, who, Sabato says, could be anyone, namely a senator or governor, who wins big in the 2010 elections.

What about Palin, who said the other day that all cards are on the table for 2012 and is viewed by some in the Republican hierarchy as a virtually certain presidential candidate that year? Sabato's view: "I doubt if she will run; Americans have concluded she does not have presidential stature, and Republicans will not want to nominate a loser."

Why her resignation as governor? Speculates Sabato: "I think she's fed up, is thin skinned, faces a lot of ethical suits, and that's it."

My wife, Harriet, who has been uncanny in projecting winning political candidates -- she was certain early on that Obama would beat out Hillary Clinton for the Democratic Presidential nomination -- picks Mike Huckabee as the Republicans' next presidential standard bearer. "He's got a great forum and national stature with his Fox TV show. He's friendly, homespun, everybody likes him and he has the same Southern charm that helped put Bill Clinton in the White House."

Sabato and Harriet, though, are on different wavelengths. While he rates Huckabee with his fundamentalist base as a possible candidate, he doubts he could gain the nomination because he lacks presidential stature. Meanwhile, some folks at Fox disagree, with a couple of officials there essentially telling some outsiders we have the next president of the United States working for us.

Sabato figures that if Palin should decide to jump into the race, she would unquestionably hurt Huckabee because they both cater to the same base and many people find her much more appealing.

Former House speaker Newt Gingrich is viewed by many as a potential presidential nominee, but Sabato rules him out because, he says, "he's deeply flawed."

Some New Yorkers wonder if there could be another run by Rudy Giuliani even though he performed poorly in the 2008 presidential sweepstakes. The former New York mayor, who has put on a fair amount of weight, actually looked like a campaigner for something at a recent dinner at a Manhattan Chinese restaurant as he took the initiative and shook the hands of some patrons who recognized him as he wandered around the restaurant.

Sabato's view: "It is highly unlikely to the vanishing point that Rudy will be back. His 2008 campaign was a total failure and there just isn't a market in the GOP for his social liberalism despite the appeal of his 9/11 image. He may run for governor in 2010, but that's about it."

One major George Bush supporter thinks it would be a mistake to rule out brother Jeb. Sabato says Jeb Bush would instantly become a major candidate if he decided to run because of the family name, money and connections. But he doubts Jeb would do well, observing it's too soon after his brother's unpopular presidency. Even if he got the nomination, Sabato says, "He would be his brother's keeper, he would be held accountable for George's mistakes and he would be a general election loser."

Is there any way Obama could be deprived of the 2012 nomination? Sabato doesn't think so. "Only by an act of God," he says. Of the opinion that the 2012 presidential election campaign will be focused on three major issues -- "the economy, the economy and the economy" -- Sabato, pointing to such consumer concerns as the jobless rate, inflation, debt and income growth or the lack of it, does think, though, Obama could be vulnerable in a general election if the economy continues to sink.

Likewise, he thinks some shockers -- such as a possible terrorist attack, either domestic or foreign, or a national disaster, like Katrina or a devastating earthquake in California -- could change the voting complexion.

Of course, 2012 is a long way off. Maybe Doris Day summed it best with her hit song in Alfred Hitchcock's The man Who Knew Too much: Que sera, sera. Whatever will be will be.

Comments

[ShinjiIkari]

Mister X?

Does he have a small army of henchmen, a stash of cash inherited from wealthy parents, and a Fortress of Solitude?

The notion that President Obama will have to defend himself against a comic-book character is clasically absurd; but then, so is the GOP.

[Grada3784]

Palin thin-skinned?

What Republicultist isn't thin-skinned?

Just a bunch of whining bullies who can dish it out, but can't take it back in return.

Shades of cousin Dudley.

[Rmath]

Pawlenty is a posturing phony who loves to jump in front of the camera. Like Palin, he craves media attention, hence his "stern father" role-playing in unilaterally dismantling the state budget He's distinguished himself as a joke among Minnesota governors.

[ShinjiIkari]

And when your competition is Jesse "The Body" Ventura, that's saying something!

[Fabienne]

Whoever the gops nominate is a loser, and as for a disaster changing the temperament of the voters, why, when Obama is capable of rising to the situation and the gops have proven that they are not?

[melissamsouza]

Romney is "certain" he will be the next President of the United States? There is really no limit to these guys' egos....they are completely blind and have no sense of perspective whatsoever on themselves­...Romney, with all his billions of dollars, couldn't even win the Republican nomination against McCain who was far from loved by the Republican Party (they had to swallow him sugar-coated by Palin). He is a terrible speaker, has no charisma or personal appeal--everyone sees right through his phoniness. Plus, he is plutocrat who has known nothing but privelege all his life and who caters to the wealthy--another one of those, after Bush dynasty? I don't think so...and Sabato is not the only guru with political acumen--lots of people, including myself, thought Obama would snag the nomination from Hillary Clinton...and no, I predict that the economy will turn around by 2012 and Obama will be reelected...if he feared any of these bozos Sabato suggests, he would have offered them a job by now, like he did with Huntsman.

[jt2020]

Being form Minnesota, I can tell you what a humiliation Pawlenty has been for my state. Thanks to him, we have an insanely permissive gun law allowing - even encouraging - every resident to carry a concealed handgun. For those of us simply trying to do business, it is a great humiliation when you have an out of town visitor asking us questions about why we have big signs outside all our offices, stores, and public places which says "WE DO NOT ALLOW FIREARMS ON THE PREMISES."

Is this a contest to see how quickly we can make a good place look like some backwater dump in Alaska? Are the bloods and crips bankrolling the republicans? (they are the ones who benefit the most).

[mom of three]

Wow! Thanks for that Minnesotan perspective. Eye-opening...

[TremoluxMan]

I've lived in Minnesota since birth, 61 years. Pawlenty is indeed a political lightweight, an ideologue. His mantra is "I won't raise taxes." And he hasn't -- to the detriment of every city, town, and village in the state. Aid to the cities plummeted and they've been forced to raise local property taxes to make up for the loss. Fees were raised on everything from license tabs to fishing licenses. He called it a 'service fee' increase. Infrastructure is crumbling, and the list goes on, but hey. He cleaved to the Right-wing dogma of 'No Tax Increases'. He treats the legislature like Bush treated Congress: "Do as I say, not as the people want."

President Pawlenty? I shudder to think. Oh, and forget the 'working class' image. It's just that, image. He ain't exactly revered in his hometown, as a recent article in the StarTribune noted.

[Petey131]

I thought Romney was a MORMON?

[skippypicasso]

A lot of people put that second silent "M" in that word. I usually leave it out.

[generationyes]

Zing!

[furryone]

please...please ...PLEASE ---do stop with the 2012 prognosticating! when did this country enter perpetual campaign mode? are we so unable to stay interested in something unless it involves a battle?
if so, then we are heading down a path of past great society and empre...ROME! The next thing will be handicapping President Obama against opponents in gladitorial battles!

[serindipity803]

The media has to have some explosion every few days to stay employed.

[allonfla]

the ratings from the 2008 primaries and elections were so good they are breaking their necks to keep it going.

[TomTheAlmostUgly]

Jeb Bush? Ya gotta be kidding me. Forget losing in the general election, he's not macho enough to get the nomination. And the few moderates left in the Republican Party would vote for Kim Jong Il in the primaries before they'd vote for another Bush.

[Romulus]

I have a feeling that the Repub nominee will be someone coming out of left field like Obama did.

[Kitster]

Do you mean perhaps someone coming out of...right field?

[truegreen]

I agree w/ the article. The Republicans and the media are itching for 2012. I support the President. He is not doing a bad job, but he is not really doing a good job either. But too underestimated Obama is to commit suicide. The guy is a political animal when he's ready.

[mom of three]

To say "he's not doing a good job" is mind-boggling when you consider that he's on track to have the highest Congressional success rate in 50 years!

[Hawkman4]

Just what we need...a shrubbery of Bushes.

[greymom]

LOL

[winstonian22]

If I had to choose between voting for a Republican tree stump and Obama I would happily vote for the tree stump.

[mainemomma]

Eat more fiber. That will clean you out real good... think clearly.

[Romulus]

Well you should get your wish as it seems to me that most Republicans running for president have IQs equivalent to tree stumps. :-?

[LBaby]

And this is reason one why the GOP is in the crapper - look at what they have as a base...

[mom of three]

LOL!

[DDK]

Romney is not a Baptist minister. That's laughable.

[barackobama4prez]

Did Romney switch faiths just as I predicted a few weeks back?

The choices they have are incredibly weak. The economy will have rebounded before re-election time.