Don't write off Barack Obama just yet. He may be politically wounded, but he's far from politically dead.
In fact, despite his skidding approval numbers, the furor over his inability to resolve the jobs mess and the whipping he took in the mid-term elections, leading a number of political pundits to predict he'll be a one-term president, lo and behold, Obama has emerged as the odds-on favorite to recapture the White House in 2012.
That's the assessment of the United Kingdom's William Hill, one of the world's largest and most influential bookmakers. After a week of brisk betting on the U.S.'s 2012 presidential outcome following the recent elections, the bookmaker has established Obama as the man to beat and rates him as even money to reign again for another four years.
What makes this outlook especially noteworthy is that Obama is now the top dog and by no means an underdog, some media reports notwithstanding.
What's more, William Hill boasts a pretty imposing record in picking winners in the U.S. presidential sweepstakes. "We normally get it right," says Rupert Adams, director of the bookmaker's media operations, who tells me the firm's favorites win about 80% to 90% of the time.
The national election, of course, is still two years away and the unexpected, such as a deep economic downturn or another attack on American shores, could easily alter the course of events and the favorites can always change. But as of now, Adams says, no potential candidate comes even close to Obama in the betting odds.
Indicative of this, Obama's closest rival in the betting on who will win the 2012 presidential race is distant runner-up Mitt Romney at 7 to 1.
Following Romney, three names are quoted at 14 to 1: Sarah Palin, Indiana governor Mitch Daniels and South Dakota senator John Thune.
Speaking of Romney and Palin, some Wall Streeters are abuzz about an unusual bet made between a top official of a buyout firm and one of the country's wealthiest hedge fund managers. In brief, one is wagering Romney will be the Republican standard-bearer in 2012; the other is saying it will be Palin. If either fails to run, the bet, which was made last Saturday, is null and void.
The loser provides the winner with an all expense-paid 10-day summer vacation for he and his family in the Hamptons at a cost not to exceed $200,000. Hopefully not, that's $20,000 a day. One participant in the bet, which has I.R.S. ramifications, confirmed the wager on the promise of anonymity for both names.
Rounding out the odds on William Hill's list of presidential candidates are Mike Huckabee at 18 to 1; Hillary Clinton, 22 to 1; Newt Gingrich and Minnesota governor Tim Pawlentry, both at 25 to 1; Missisippi governor Haley Barbour, Joe Biden and Louisiana governor Bobby Jindall, each quoted at 33 to 1; Ron Paul, 50 to 1; Mike Bloomberg, 100 to 1; and American pop singer Lady Gaga, 500 to 1.
Another obvious question: who will be the G.O.P.'s presidential nominee?
Here again, for those political bettors, William Hill has come up with a list of names and their odds.
Romney takes the top spot at 11 to 4 (meaning you put up $4 to win $11 for a total return of $15). Palin takes second spot at 5 to 1, followed by Thune, 6 to 1, Daniels, 13 to 2, Pawlenty, 8 to 1, and Gingrich and Huckabee, 10 to 1.
Rounding out this group are Barbour, 14 to 1, Indiana Congressman Mike Pence, 16 to 1, and Jindall, 22 to 1.
If you figure you know the answer and you're temped to bet a few bucks at William Hill, forget it. If you have an American address, it's illegal.
What do you think? E-mail me at Dandordan@aol.com.
Our 2024 Coverage Needs You
It's Another Trump-Biden Showdown — And We Need Your Help
The Future Of Democracy Is At Stake
Our 2024 Coverage Needs You
Your Loyalty Means The World To Us
As Americans head to the polls in 2024, the very future of our country is at stake. At HuffPost, we believe that a free press is critical to creating well-informed voters. That's why our journalism is free for everyone, even though other newsrooms retreat behind expensive paywalls.
Our journalists will continue to cover the twists and turns during this historic presidential election. With your help, we'll bring you hard-hitting investigations, well-researched analysis and timely takes you can't find elsewhere. Reporting in this current political climate is a responsibility we do not take lightly, and we thank you for your support.
Contribute as little as $2 to keep our news free for all.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
The 2024 election is heating up, and women's rights, health care, voting rights, and the very future of democracy are all at stake. Donald Trump will face Joe Biden in the most consequential vote of our time. And HuffPost will be there, covering every twist and turn. America's future hangs in the balance. Would you consider contributing to support our journalism and keep it free for all during this critical season?
HuffPost believes news should be accessible to everyone, regardless of their ability to pay for it. We rely on readers like you to help fund our work. Any contribution you can make — even as little as $2 — goes directly toward supporting the impactful journalism that we will continue to produce this year. Thank you for being part of our story.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
It's official: Donald Trump will face Joe Biden this fall in the presidential election. As we face the most consequential presidential election of our time, HuffPost is committed to bringing you up-to-date, accurate news about the 2024 race. While other outlets have retreated behind paywalls, you can trust our news will stay free.
But we can't do it without your help. Reader funding is one of the key ways we support our newsroom. Would you consider making a donation to help fund our news during this critical time? Your contributions are vital to supporting a free press.
Contribute as little as $2 to keep our journalism free and accessible to all.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
As Americans head to the polls in 2024, the very future of our country is at stake. At HuffPost, we believe that a free press is critical to creating well-informed voters. That's why our journalism is free for everyone, even though other newsrooms retreat behind expensive paywalls.
Our journalists will continue to cover the twists and turns during this historic presidential election. With your help, we'll bring you hard-hitting investigations, well-researched analysis and timely takes you can't find elsewhere. Reporting in this current political climate is a responsibility we do not take lightly, and we thank you for your support.
Contribute as little as $2 to keep our news free for all.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
Dear HuffPost Reader
Thank you for your past contribution to HuffPost. We are sincerely grateful for readers like you who help us ensure that we can keep our journalism free for everyone.
The stakes are high this year, and our 2024 coverage could use continued support. Would you consider becoming a regular HuffPost contributor?
Dear HuffPost Reader
Thank you for your past contribution to HuffPost. We are sincerely grateful for readers like you who help us ensure that we can keep our journalism free for everyone.
The stakes are high this year, and our 2024 coverage could use continued support. If circumstances have changed since you last contributed, we hope you'll consider contributing to HuffPost once more.
Support HuffPostAlready contributed? Log in to hide these messages.