The October Surprise May be Coming

While the media and blogosphere have been preoccupied with the maternity issues surrounding Sarah Palin's family, a much more important news development occurred over the weekend. Sadly, almost no one bothered reporting about it.

To wit, according to a September 1, 2008 article in the Jerusalem Post (an article I found through a link at antiwar.com), the U.S. is planning to attack Iran "within weeks." The source for this information, as noted in the article, is the Dutch intelligence service (also known as the AIVD). According to the article, the AIVD has called off its ongoing spy operation in Iran, and pulled out its intelligence operatives, "due to an assessment that a US attack on the Islamic Republic's nuclear program is imminent . . . ."

This article also reported that Iran has warned that if such an attack went forward, "it would be the start of another World War." Iran is not alone in this assessment. According to a 2006 report from the Oxford Research Group, "A US military attack on Iranian nuclear infrastructure would be the start of a protracted military confrontation that would probably involve Iraq, Israel and Lebanon as well as the United States and Iran, with the possibility of west Gulf states being involved as well." The same report concluded that, at a minimum, thousands would die as the result of a U.S. attack upon Iran. And, the impacts predicted by this assessment should be seen as quite conserservative now in light of the recent re-emergence of Russia on the world stage which only heightens the possiblity of a greater war.

Of course, the reported Dutch assessment that the U.S. will imminently attack Iran does not guarantee the certaintly of such an attack. And, I have read at least one commentary opining that the Dutch report may itself constitute psychological operations against Iran -- that is, that the report itself is designed to intimidate the Iranian people by posing a false specter of war. At the same time, the report certainly has some air of credibility, and adds to the growing weight of speculation that a military assault against Iran is in the offing. Given the disastrous global consequences which would follow from such an attack, it is incredible that no mainstream media source in the U.S. (at least that I know of) thought that this report was worth sharing with the American public. This is but another example of how the Fourth Estate has simply collapsed in this country.

Given what appears to be a real possibility of an impending military attack on Iran, it is important to point out that any such strike would be both immoral and illegal. Indeed, the carrying out of such an attack for the ostensible purpose of destroying a nuclear program which Iran claims is peaceful, and which the U.S.'s own National Intelligence Report has concluded is peaceful, would constitute the "waging of aggressive war" -- a war crime of the highest order. As the International Military Tribunal at Nuremberg concluded, it is "essentially an evil thing . . .to initiate a war of aggression . . . ," and such a war "is not only an international crime; it is the supreme international crime, differing only from other war crimes in that it contains within itself the accumulated evil of the whole." The fact that an "aggressive war" against Iran could set off a world-wide conflagration (just as the Nazi aggression against sovereign nations in Europe did) is the very type of heightened evil which the Nuremberg Tribunal was decrying.

Indeed, even if it were proven that Iran is engaged in the development of nuclear weapons (and there is no evidence that it is), any attack premised on this basis would still constitute an "aggressive war" under the Nuremberg principles. This is so because the mere development of nuclear weapons (especially when the U.S. has the largest nuclear stockpile in the world and Israel, with 150 nuclear weapons, is the only nuclear power in the Middle East) is not in and of itself a provocation which would justify war. And, Iran has not otherwise provided any provocation for war.

The truth is that Iran has been cooperative with the United States, having aided its efforts against the Taliban in Afghanistan after the 9/11 attacks, and having formally offered in 2003 to engage in comprehensive negotiations with the United States over its nuclear program as well as with assisting the U.S. in tackling the problem of the Iraq "insurgency."

Moreover, if, as I suspect, such an attack by the U.S. were motivated by the intention to try to influence the outcome of the November elections (in favor of McCain), this would make such an attack all the more legally and morally deplorable.

In light of the above, people of conscience and good will must take steps to prevent such an attack from coming to pass. First, it is critical that the U.S. public be informed of the possibility of such an attack and encouraged to raise their voices against it. In addition, the Obama/Biden team must get out in front of this story and denounce such an attack as illegal, immoral and calculated to improperly influence the presidential elections. Finally, peace activists must take all non-violent measures to try to stop such an attack - for example, by organizing marches and demonstrations, sitting down in Congressional offices and military recruitment centers and otherwise attempting to disrupt business as usual in protest of the plans for such an act of aggressive war.

Comments

[Ishmael1]

Considering that there are now four aircraft carrier battle groups (3 US and 1 UK)and two Marine Amphibious groups in the region, look to see the following if either the US or Israel attacks Iran.

Look to see Iran conduct wave attacks of hundreds of Exocet, Oniks and Moskit anti-ship missles against the Fifth Fleet inside the Gulf. Look to also see numerous Shkvall 200mph+ rocket torpedos fired upon the fleet from Iran's Kilo-class subs and from small boats. Neither the Oniks not Moskit has any effective defense capable of stopping them. This holds true for the Shkvall as well with the newest models being wire-guided.

When the US Navy conducted their own war games on this scenario two years ago, every US warship inside the Persian Gulf was sunk with US casualty estimates in the 20-30,000 dead range. When this develops as I've outlined, expect the US to quickly escalate to nuclear weapons as Iranian troops will move across the Shatt-al-Arab, take Basra and cut off US forces in Iraq from retreat while the Shi'ite militias in Iraq rise up to aid them. Iran has scattered it's missle launchers all along it's coast where they are easily concealed in Iran's mountainous terrain.

Of course, what do I know? I've actually trained and specialized in anti-sub and anti-ship weapons systems for 6 years in the Navy and have been to both the Persian Gulf and Iran itself among other places.

[Ishmael1]

With three US carrier strike groups in the area and a third British group around HMS Ark Royal and two Marine Amphibious landing forces in the area, this will get very bad, very fast. Here's a link to the ship listing here:

http://www.afterdowningstreet.org/node/35448

If these ships enter the Persian Gulf, they WILL be destroyed by wave attacks of Iranian anti-ship missles like the Moskit, Onyx and Exocet as the US Navy's own war games confirmed. So the question becomes this.

Would the Bush administration allow the fleet to be destroyed and some 30,000 sailors killed to give McCain a leg up?

[TheDubba44]

Recent events in and around the Gulf would seem to point toward some major military action. I believe that bombing Iran's nuclear sites would be a big mistake. Western Civilization is at a critical crossroads. The fact that vital resources are being rapidly depleted means that either we commit to a generation of warfare or we begin to solve the problem creatively with the help of many other nations. If the U.S. continues our ongoing resource grab then we are going to come in conflict with other Nations...and some pretty powerful ones indeed. To make a long story short...The American Way of Life must become negotiable if we are to survive. Who do we think we are? Time to lose the 'Greatest Nation on Earth' hubris and begin to really solve the problem. As Gene Kranz said during the Apollo 13 crisis "Let's work the problem people." Yes change is ahead. If we are to survive as a species then we are going to need to re-structure our society in ways that will be immediately painful but very beneficial in the long run. We are no longer children...it is time to grow up. I do have faith in both my country and mankind. Our understanding of both ourselves and our place in the Universe has really advanced in recent years and this collective leap in intelligence will enhance our shared intelligence and creativity.

[TheDubba44]

Recent events in and around the Gulf would seem to point toward some major military action. I believe that bombing Iran's nuclear sites would be a big mistake. Western Civilization is at a critical crossroads. The fact that vital resources are being rapidly depleted means that either we commit to a a generation of warfare or we begin to solve the problem creatively with the help of many other nations. If the U.S. continues our ongoing resource grab then we are going to come in conflict with other Nations...and some pretty powerful ones indeed. To make a long story short...The American Way of Life must become negotiable if we are to survive. Who do we think we are? Time to lose the 'Greatest Nation on Earth' hubris and begin to really solve the problem. As Gene Kranz said during the Apollo 13 crisis "Let's work the problem people." Yes change is ahead. If we are to survive as a species then we are going to need to re-structure our society in ways that will be immediately painful but very beneficial in the long run. We are no longer children...it is time to grow up. I do have faith in both my country and mankind. Our understanding of both ourselves and our place in the Universe has really advanced in recent years and this leap in intelligence will enhance our shared intelligence and creativity.

[petepete3161]

You are correct, Dan, the media did not cover this. I could not find anything on the Huffington Post aside from your article.
Your article is persuasive only to those who consider abstract international law discussions important. And, yes Dan, believe it or not, the vast majority of people could care less about international legalities.

[mbafromharvard]

Iran is harboring WMD and has been given ample opportunity to peacefully end their nuclear program. At this state, an intervention to end their hostile intentions is the safest option for the US and our allies. If this decision should be carried out as noted by the Dutch press, the American people (and congress) need to give 100% support to the President.

[jhNY]

Nice to see an MBA from Harvard is not too squeamish to shy away from being labeled a Nazi. In this regard, you resemble our present commander in chief to the point of being indistinguishable, except I note no spelling errors in your comment. A pre-emptive war doctrine, ever the darling of paranoids with a hankering to do foreign policy, will be, as it has been for all the other failed empires, the undoing of our greatness, whatever untattered bit of it remains flapping about. But thanks for writing in regarding our nation's Middle East stategery!

[peterg76]

So I take it you support a "coalition of the willing" overthrowing the US government to put an end to its hostile intentions.

[LeftRight]

So, how's it feel to be lying for Rove?? Is the money worth it?

[lw1899]

And your proof that Iran is harboring WMDs is......?

[LeftRight]

The same as his proof that Iraq was harboring WMDs.

[magen]

Again, they have to distract us from the real threat.

I read today that Al-Qaida has free movement throughout Pakistan. Pakistan already has nukes. The installed puppet leader (Musharraff) is gone. Yet Iran is the problem they say.

How can the military of the great United States of America sustain this nonsense?

Our last 2 exports-war and its machinery (guns, bombs, tanks, planes) and entertainment.

[DickTater]

4th estate has collapsed. yes.
It was bought and paid for. Then gutted. Now it's puppet-like remains are animated by a corporate non-human agenda.

[jstwtasec]

Oh god... this is the scaryest thing in the world. I posted a comment about this same thing 2-3 months ago... God help us all.

[HBeachbum]

Can IK get the tin foil hat concession for this blog? I'm gonna be rich I tell 'ya!

[hopeless277]

The attack on Iran will happen. It will serve a number of purposes.
1. Allow Republicans to undermine the constitution(they may suspend it).
2. Allow Bush to declare national martial law and jail his opponents.
3. Make sure that no American soldier ever comes home from Iraq.
4. Dole out no-bid contracts to Blackwater because our military is over-stretched.
5. Disrupt the oil supply allowing Big Oil to jack up the prices sky high.
6. Make Bush look tough.
7. Make McCain look tough.
8. Get the press off Palin's back.

And many, many more. It is a sure bet.

[Henry]

The insanity of the Bushwa Cabal!

[LeftRight]

The American people, and particularly, the American Military will not let that happen! The military is stretched too thin, and NOBODY trusts nushco(tm) anymore! ESPECIALLY about war!

[TheIndependenceParty]

In my medical work I have seen patients display profoundly psychotic behaviors. In one instant they are smiling, and in the next they become agitated and physically threatening. In one case a young man with such an illness leaped toward the window of his fourth floor room. It was acrylic, and so he bounced off, but tried again to destroy himself until we had subdued him.

And so we seem as a nation to the world. We are outwardly rational, sometimes appearing calm, but indeed an attack on Iran would be similarly psychotic on our nation's part.

Before Bush and Cheney commit this second war crime, should it come to pass, it is important that we say to the world, clearly, that our government is out of control, ours and everyone's. It is run by lunatics for whom the clock of their control over the White House is running out. Such men are always desperate to retain the power to which they are addicted. The world must stop this attack, which has hung like a sword over us all for nearly two years.

[Bryanedwardhill]

Dan,

Thank you for bringing this to our attention. I hadn't heard about it. This is incredibly disturbing.

BH