"We don't know."
That's not a sentence we, as Americans, like to hear. But after talking to scientists on the Gulf Coast and in other parts of the country about the oil gusher now more than eight weeks old, "we don't know" is something I heard a lot. And it's scary.
We hoped for better answers when we set out to do a careful scientific report on the effects of all that oil in the water for this week's special edition of my weekly news magazine program Dan Rather Reports. But reality is as murky as the water when you're trying to measure an unprecedented event in complex ecosystems. You don't get the concrete assurances that reporters, policy makers and the general public crave.
WATCH:
There are a lot of lessons we as a nation need to learn from the unfolding environmental catastrophe, but one of those lessons had better be a healthy dose of humility.
What will be the long-term effects of those large oil plumes, now called clouds, far below the surface? We don't know.
What is the toxicity of all that chemical dispersant being used at the site of the gusher and in the open waters of the Gulf? We don't know.
What will the oil mean for the tiny juvenile blue fin tuna that we hope will grow to hundreds of pounds and reinvigorate an endangered species? Will the use of dispersants help keep the oil off the shore or make a bad situation worse? What will the oil mean for the deep sea coral of the Gulf only recently discovered? Will the birds being so meticulously cleaned of oil live when they're returned to their habitats? How many animals have died below the surface only to have their carcasses sink to the bottom of the sea away from the accounting of science?
We don't know.
And there are countless other scientific questions without any good answers. That's not to say that all these questions are unknowable. It's just to say that they will require a lot more study. The truth is that what is taking place in the Gulf is an uncontrolled and unprecedented experiment. We know the results are bad, but we may not know for years, or even decades, how bad they are. Responsible scientific research often can't be rushed. And we better get used to that.
When I was growing up in Texas oil country, I spent some time working alongside the tough men who did the backbreaking labor of earlier oil booms. Many had little formal education, but when some geologist would come along and say, "drill over there" the whole process took on the aura of science. We now know how primitive those efforts really were. The modern oil business has worked hard to project a scientific confidence. Thoughtful engineers are the staple of their television advertisements.
We were told that there was a lot of oil in the deep waters of the Gulf. They were right. We were also told we could drill safely at those depths. I think the record is clear that those assurances pushed beyond the boundaries of our scientific knowledge. After we change the technology that led to this current disaster, can we drill safely at these depths? We don't know.
Not knowing should not be, necessarily, a reason for not trying. We didn't know if we could put a man on the moon or conquer polio. But in both cases, we respected the science. We based our measurements of risks and rewards on impartial data. Now it seems the facts have become political footballs. We have wonderful scientists in this country. We need to fund their studies and respect their results. We need to base our policy decisions on independent peer-reviewed research, not wishful thinking by industry "experts" whose points of view come with vested interests
One NASA scientist told me that we know a lot more about the surface of the moon than the sea floor of the Gulf. Another scientist told me that researching the ocean is so difficult it has been likened to flying a blimp over a forest at night and dropping down a hook, pulling up a twig or a leaf, and trying to surmise all the animals, plants and living organisms that call it home. These are honest assessments of the challenges by people who have dedicated their lives to studying the Gulf. It's far past time the oil companies, the government and all of us recognize how little we understand about the planet we call home.
Dan Rather's special report from the Gulf Coast, "A Gulf in Understanding", will air Tuesday, June 22 at 8 PM and 11 PM Eastern on HDNet. It will also be available on iTunes.
Leo Hindery, Jr.: USW-AWEA 'Partnership for Progress' -- This Is What it Should Be All About
Is "US" American companies making things in America, or is "US" multinational corporations based in the U.S. but with much/most of their business and production abroad?
Some of us are very well informed and some of us aren't. I think this article speaks to the less informed. For instance, my opinion is that many who understand the concerns about the spill are aware of how little is known about the ecology of mile/s depths at sea. Also, my opinion is that many of us enjoy anecdotal recollections that reference and compare how things have been done.
I like you Mr. Rather, and if I had any chance to communicate with you, this may be a chance. What I request is that you keep writing as often as possible, and consider your audience a little more informed.
BP and the other oil "drilling" companies - they know how to drill, but not plug!
The Obama administration (who now CAN'T admit they screwed up royally)
The Coast Guard (ditto above)
The News media - which suffers from panic attacks and inferiority complexes and can't even see a major scandal when it hits them in the face!
Did NASA scientists say "We Don't Know - how to bring the Apollo 13 astronauts back"?
Did Jonas Salk say "I Don't Know - how to create a vaccine against Polio"?
Since when has "Can Do" and "We'll Find Out" been replaced with "Can't Do", "Don't Know" and "Don't Care", in this country???
The south has boatloads of ignorance, boatloads of arrogance. And still, in the year 2010, boatloads of disdain....uh, maybe that word is too high falutin'.........resentment.........still too cerebral....... ok, hatred for the north - yea those northern sissies that don't want drilling in places like George's Bank or the Santa Barbara coast.......
Dan, I know you're a Texan - so perhaps you should qualify your statements about what "we" know and don't know. Some people who aren't American rednecks - say Norwegians, for example, actually do know which way is up. That's why they insist on drilling relief wells BEFORE a blowout occurs. And they insist on acoustic switches to remotely activate BOP valves. And they aren't in the habit of using thick walled drill pipe that their BOP shears can't sever to stop a blowout. So Dan, speak for yourself and your fellow rednecks. Others around the world have humility - that's precisely what has driven them forward - ahead of us in the use of technology to protect all that is worth protecting.
http://blog.seattlepi.com/greenhuman/archives/147541.asp
If you don't know, you shouldn't do it. Of course, trying to get oil co's to do the right thing is like depending on abstinence education to prevent pregnancies.
As one who believes as the Native Americans do -- that the earth is a living, breathing organism -- human beings ought to start showing it some reverence instead of recklessly abusing our glorious and unique planet with little regard if any for the potentially apocalyptic consequences. If our species can't do that then we deserve to become extinct.
It seems we have become the laughing stock of the world, held hostage by incompetents at BP who are learning how to handle this catastrophe on the fly as they try one failed experiment after another. But, we are assured that once the two relief wells intersect with the Deepwater Horizon pipe, all will be (pardon the pun) well.
Republicans have the answer of course: "Pump and Drill, Baby, Pump and Drill!" And apologize over and over for having the audacity or expectation that their main benefactors, BP and Big Oil, should ever pay one penny to those out of work fishermen whom they call "hobos" who may bleed some of the campaign contributions away from their reelection coffers.
Will this become America's Dunkirk? Or, is this just another ephemeral act of desperation to convince those who live near and love the Gulf that all will be restored to its original state? How many fewer wild cranes and other bird species will ever return to nest and how many will return to the northern states and Canada after mating season is over?
Dan Rather has the answer: We don't know. We do know that we will all pay.
Could there really be a coordinated news blackout going on, orchestrated by the Obama administration and for what purpose? To protect BP from immediate bankruptcy perhaps? To protect Obama and the Congress from embarassment perhaps? Are we killing the Gulf so some people can avoid being embarrassed and held accountable???? I sure hope it's not that simple!!!
Knowing the science only adds to the despair. I actually envy people who think the President, or a submarine, or an atom bomb can plug the hole.
The awful truth is that this disaster's name is Greed, and it has poisoned our children's future. There is no upside to the situation.
There was before and there is now.
Not even God is going to forgive ths.
Time will tell whether some, even in Congress, knew a lot more than they are telling and knew that more could have been done early on. I worry that it was more than just BP circling the wagons on this catastrophe!! I worry it was the Obama administration and the Congess as well.