Breaking Down UFC 194: Aldo vs. McGregor

Breaking Down UFC 194: Aldo vs. McGregor
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Five months after they were originally slated to meet for the UFC title, champion Jose Aldo and Conor McGregor will finally meet to settle their longstanding feud. The pair of featherweights will square off in the UFC 194 main event, Saturday, December 12, at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.

Dating back to before July's UFC 189, Aldo (25-1, 7-0 UFC) and McGregor (18-2, 6-0 UFC) have been the talk of the MMA world. But a rib injury late in training camp prevented Aldo from entering the cage. McGregor would instead face Chad Mendes in the main event, winning the UFC interim belt with a second round TKO.

With Aldo's rib now healed, along with McGregor's ailing ACL, the two will finally do battle inside the Octagon; the winner leaves the UFC's undisputed champion.

For McGregor, the keys to victory come on the feet and in the boxing game, where his height, reach, and power all trump Aldo's. But the champion possesses some of the most refined and sophisticated Muay Thai in mixed martial arts, along with a punishing leg kick assault. Aldo also owns an advantage on the ground, where his wrestling and Brazilian Jiu Jitsu supersede McGregor's acumen.

It can not be ignored that it has been over a year since Aldo last fought at UFC 179, so ring rust may be somewhat of an issue. However, Aldo has come back from long layoffs in the past, and has never missed a beat. And with the extra motivation of becoming the first man to defeat McGregor inside the Octagon, it's safe to bet Aldo will arrive prepared to deliver his finest performance.

And while McGregor has been more than impressive during his stint with the UFC, becoming the sport's most visible male athlete, his run will end on Saturday at the hands and feet of Aldo.

Expect Aldo to attack McGregor's lead leg and alter the Irishman's game plan. And with his leg hobbled, McGregor will be unable to land his spinning attacks or pressure the champion. Aldo will dance in and out of the pocket to land punches, capitalizing on McGregor's misfortune.

But don't expect McGregor to go down quietly. This bout will go the distance, with Aldo scoring the decision victory.


Co-main event: Chris Weidman vs. Luke Rockhold

Still days away from fight night, this matchup between Weidman and Rockhold is already being called the greatest middleweight title fight in UFC history.

Weidman (13-0, 9-0 UFC), who first won the promotion's middleweight belt in July 2013 with a stunning KO of the legendary Anderson Silva, enters UFC 194 on the heels of his third title defense, a first round TKO of Vitor Belfort at UFC 187.

Rockhold (14-2, 4-1 UFC), a former champion in the Strikeforce promotion, is coming off of four straight finishes, including a dominant submission of former light heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida in April of this year.

Both fighters are among the sport's most talented and well rounded. Weidman's grappling credentials are arguably slightly more noteworthy than the challenger, although Rockhold has demonstrated phenomenal BJJ for MMA in his last three contests.

On the feet, Rockhold, the taller and longer fighter, has an edge in the kicking department. However, just ask Silva about kicking Weidman. The decorated former champion learned the hard way, breaking his tibia in half at UFC 168 as the result of Weidman checking a kick.

Still an amazing bout between two fighters in their prime, this contest ultimately favors Weidman, who will pressure Rockhold and cut off the cage with angles. Look for Weidman to score the late TKO, sometime late in the third or early in the fourth round.


Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza vs. Yoel Romero

For the third time in 2015, the UFC is attempting to make this fight between top-five middleweights Souza and Romero, after injuries scratched the matchup at February's UFC 184, and April's UFC on FOX 15.

Souza (22-3 1 NC, 5-0 UFC) has long been considered one of MMA's finest grapplers and all-around competitors. Undefeated in more than four years, Souza can trade punches with the best 185 pounders on the planet. But Brazilian Jiu Jitsu has always been his forte; Jacare's submission game is one of the best in mixed martial arts.

Romero (10-1, 6-0 UFC) also excels on the mat, although his preferred discipline is wrestling. A silver medalist on the wrestling mats at the 2000 Olympic Games, Romero has come full circle in his MMA transition, most recently stopping Lyoto Machida with elbows in June.

Conventional wisdom would favor Souza, the more experienced competitor. However, Romero has faced much tougher opposition inside the Octagon. He also has the exact style to nullify Souza's dominance on the ground and control the top position, should the pair hit the mat.

Yoel Romero lands the upset here, taking this contest by decision.


Gunnar Nelson vs. Demian Maia

A BJJ dream matchup, this contest between Nelson and Maia features two the of the welterweight division's top grapplers, and two of MMA's more credentialed Jiu Jitsu specialists.

Nelson (14-1-1, 5-1 UFC), who last competed at UFC 189, has shown improvements in his standup game of late, while Maia (21-6, 15-6 UFC), a bigger and more experienced competitor, is coming off a submission win at UFC 190.

Expect both fighters to constantly look for the takedown, using punches to close distance and set up their shots. And while Nelson will be active and give up position to take chances, his BJJ will be nullified by Maia, who will use similar tactics and techniques.

Ultimately, this bout will be settled on the ground, where Maia will attempt more submissions and control the top game en route to a decision win.

Max Holloway vs. Jeremy Stephens

Along with featherweight champion Aldo, Max Holloway is tied for a divisional best seven-fight win streak, dating back to January 2014.

A young striker from Hawaii, Holloway (14-3, 1-3 UFC) possesses an unconventional kickboxing style that is complemented by an improving submission game. Tall and long for a featherweight, Holloway strings together crisp combinations to pick opponents apart and do damage from the outside.

Jeremy Stephens (24-11, 11-10 UFC) is a power puncher and a hard-nosed brawler, who pushes forward, unloading heavy blows.

Former training partners, Holloway and Stephens know each other well, so there will be no surprises here. Stephens will march forward; Holloway will use distance as a weapon and land punches and kicks.

And while Holloway has put together an impressive run, climbing into the divisional top 5, his streak end here, as Stephens absorbs the damage and lands the knockout punch in the second round.

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