The UFC kicks off three consecutive days of fight cards as part of its annual International Fight Week with a lightweight title bout on Thursday, July 7 (6 P.M. EST, UFC Fight Pass) at the MGM Grand Garden Arena. Headlining the event will be 155-pound champion Rafael dos Anjos, who looks to make his second title defense against challenger Eddie Alvarez.
Now fully recovered from a broken foot that kept him out of a UFC 196 main event against Conor McGregor, dos Anjos (25-7 MMA, 14-5 UFC) will step into the Octagon for the first time in 2016. The decorated Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt has won five bouts in a row, and ten of his last 11 contests.
Alvarez (27-4 MMA, 2-1 UFC), who has won titles in several other MMA promotions, excels at pressuring opponents with his wrestling and clinch work. He also possesses crisp and accurate striking, and can threaten with submission attempts. Alvarez has used his varied attacks to beat two former titlists in a row, edging out Anthony Pettis at UFC Fight Night 81 and Gilbert Melendez at UFC 188.
Both dos Anjos and Alvarez have complete skillsets on both the feet and on the ground. And while Alvarez has been known to slow fights down by bringing them to the mat, dos Anjos' jiu jitsu acumen off of his back will likely nullify the wrestling threat. It is in the standup game where this bout will likely be decided.
Having already dominated Pettis to win the title at UFC 185, dos Anjos has shown an ability to break from the clinch and deliver heavy punches and elbows. Against Alvarez, dos Anjos will need to do the same, and land strikes in close before moving out of range.
Expect this one to go the distance, with dos Anjos taking the decision in a Fight of the Night candidate.
Co-main event: Roy Nelson vs. Derrick Lewis
A pair of hard-hitting heavyweights will go at it in the evening's penultimate bout, with former The Ultimate Fighter winner Roy Nelson squaring off against Derrick Lewis, who has won three straight bouts.
The more experienced of the two, Nelson (21-12 MMA, 8-8 UFC) is known for his one-punch knockout power, as seven of his eight wins inside the Octagon have come via KO or TKO. Nelson is also a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, but those skills will likely not come into play here.
Lewis (15-4 MMA, 6-2 UFC), who has recorded knockouts (and TKOs) in all six of his UFC wins, has improved with every outing. But Nelson is a big step up in competition.
Look for Nelson and Lewis to paw at each other for the first two minutes, establishing range. Nelson will connect first, dropping Lewis, before pounding him out for the TKO win.
Alan Jouban vs. Belal Muhammad
This welterweight battle between Alan Jouban (13-4 MMA, 4-2 UFC) and UFC newcomer Belal Muhammad (9-0 MMA, 0-0 UFC) is an intriguing matchup of long and rangy strikers.
Jouban, who has recorded three first-round knockouts inside the Octagon, has shown an ability to mix up kicks with the knees from the Thai clinch. He also likes to use elbows in close range, which could pose a problem for Muhammad.
A former champion with the Titan FC promotion, Muhammad has never tasted defeat in his MMA career, relying on his crisp striking and takedown defense to batter opponents on the feet. Muhammad is a hot mixed martial arts prospect with loads of potential, but Jouban's experience will likely be the deciding factor.
Look for Jouban to edge out a close decision on the strength of his kicking attack.
Joe Duffy vs. Mitch Clarke
Once lauded as the last man to beat Conor McGregor (prior to Nate Diaz at UFC 196), Joe Duffy entered the UFC with two impressive stoppage wins. The Irish boxer and grappler demonstrated a phenomenal ability to use all facets of the MMA game and was quickly elevated to a pivotal bout with top-10 lightweight Dustin Poirier at UFC 195.
Losing to Poirier in a brutal affair, Duffy (14-2 MMA, 2-1 UFC) now looks to rebound against Canadian Mitch Clarke (11-3 MMA, 2-3 UFC), a respected grappler who has had difficulty finding consistency inside the Octagon.
Having only fought once a year since 2011, Clarke has shown some impressive submission skills in the past, but inactivity and injury have been his biggest battles since signing with the UFC.
Duffy brings the wider skillset to this bout, with a more varied boxing attack and ability to switch from the striking game to the ground with fluidity. And while Clarke is a formidable opponent, Duffy will wear down the Canadian with pressure, earning the stoppage late in the third round.