Despite the recent military coup against Manuel Zelaya, Hondurans will most likely elect their next president by the end of 2009. This might end the crisis that led to the coup. But elections will not fix all of Honduras' political ills. Honduras must also address the decline in the quality of democracy that predates the current crisis, or else it will remain dangerously susceptible to more breakdowns.
On the surface, Honduras prior to this crisis appeared to have moved steadily towards strengthening democracy. From 1982 to 2008, Honduras held seven consecutive civilian elections followed by uninterrupted presidential terms. Honduras also seemed to have tamed its military by the mid-1990s, as civilian leaders had reined in military spending and the military's political veto power.
The current crisis in Honduras is a stark reminder that democracy entails more than free and fair elections and a military that answers to civilian authority -- crucial as these may be. Democracies must also expand the rule of law, citizens' access to the justice system, state guarantees of civil and political rights, and protections for political minorities. These added aspects of democracy help democracy deliver positive development outcomes and ensure citizens' political satisfaction. In Honduras, these added aspects were faltering prior to the recent constitutional crisis.
The immediate cause of the June coup was clearly the inability of democratic institutions to rein in a president who was violating the law. The military compounded the problem by expelling the president. But the longer-term problem was a decline in the quality of democracy, which hampered the political system's ability to protect citizens and spread prosperity. Poverty remains rampant, corruption pervasive, and crime has gotten worse. In addition, inequality in this vastly unequal society increased during several years in the last decade. And in surveys we have conducted in rural areas, people often report feeling abandoned by an incapable or absent state.
Honduras' low quality of democracy has produced disenchantment. Data compiled by the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) in 2008 shows that less than half of Honduras' population expressed confidence in the Congress, the judiciary, or the Presidency. Tellingly, Hondurans reported greater trust in the military than in any other national political institution. In terms of state legitimacy and citizens' political tolerance, Honduras ranked last after Haiti.
Political behavior has changed, as well. Honduran voters used to go to the polls, virtually without fail, to vote for one of the two dominant right-of-center parties. In recent elections, turnout dropped along with party identification. Discontent with the two dominant political parties was rising, but no clear alternative was emerging. The political system was becoming a rudderless ship. Because of these trends in attitudes and behaviors, LAPOP went as far as to dub Honduras in 2008 as a "democracy at-risk," a claim that now appears prescient.
This precarious pre-coup situation suggests that Honduran democracy may not be immune to future threats, even if the current crisis eases. As with humans and viruses, all democracies in developing countries are susceptible to a wide array of potential assaults: overzealous presidents, drug lords capturing the state, corrupt politicians in congress, executive-legislative deadlock, and ruling parties in disarray. But democracies with low quality institutions are least likely to survive these assaults, let alone resolve them legally. The current crisis may very well abate with the upcoming election, but Honduras, under the best short-term scenario, will still remain vulnerable to future viral attacks.
One of my ancestors was President for a few months and deposed by a coup. My grandfather, a Congressman, died in political exile. My uncle also died in political exile. My father, a Congressman, retired from politics after a coup dissolved Congress, and was able to die in his bed. The name of the capital should be changed from Tegucigalpa to Tegucigolpe.
The military, concerned over his safety, wink, wink, if he is allowed to return, is suggesting that Mr. Zelaya could be accidentally shot by one of his enthusiastic supporters. The 'de facto" government has announced that Mexico could be open to receive Mr. Zelaya and his family in permanent exile. I guess they are supposed to jump at the opportunity of leaving behind everything they own.
The US needs to cut off the aid like pronto. Anything short of that sends the wrong message. It looks like the Obama administration is dragging its feet hoping that Mr. Zelaya runs out of time while talks produce nothing in Costa Rica. Lanny Davis, a close friend and associate of the Clintons, is being paid to lobby Washington. The plotters have plenty of money and they are not stupid. Davis has not been hired because he has no connections, and his most public connection, other than his pal Joe Lieberman, is the Secretary of State. What kind of person would put a friend, Mrs. Clinton, in that kind of a situation. Some people will do anything for money.
Under the current Constitution, the President cannot run for a second term. The situation regarding the Constitution in Honduras is not as what we have here. Our Constitution and Bill of Rights have worked well and adding ammendments is a big deal and the process discourages change. Honduras has had 16 Constitutions since independence from Spain in 1821. Sixteen! Constitutions seem to come and go there. I found this very confusing when I was in elementary school. Zelaya was proposing a popular vote to let voters decide yes or no to a second term. The argument that he was trying to take over the country to turn it into a "comunist" paradise is ludicrous. I imagine the business class considered the possibility that he could prevail, run again, maybe get back in power and continue to push for reforms. Therefore, coup. The military, part of the power structure there, is always ready to pounce. In my lifetime, I am 65, there have been three military coups. A close friend had his head blown up during a "peaceful" coup. I have neglected to mention a third powerful player there, the Catholic Church, and its representative the Cardinal, a big supporter of the status quo, and a big opponent of sex education and birth control. Evangelicals have made some inroads there, but the majority of the population is Catholic and multiplying exponentially.
And for the matter I grew up in Guatemala which has had an even more messed up history than Honduras..
(Marimba music still brings chills to my spine. One thing that always happened in coups in Guatemala was non stop Marimba music on all radio & TV channels...)
There are two traditional parties there, the "red" Liberal Party (liberal and sometimes populist) and the "blue" Nationalist Party (conservative). In recent years there has not been much difference between the two, and other smaller parties have emerged. The deposed Zelaya belongs to the Liberal Party, and surprised the real power, the business class, by turning to the left. A possible explanation is that he is not part of the Tegucigalpa or San Pedro Sula political or business elites. He is a rancher and comes from a rural area. He is sort of a "good old boy", loves horses, plays the guitar and sings, dresses to match his interests and is a bit of a show off. He tried some populist reforms, such as a mimimun wage, etc.. without much success. The maquila industry and Chiquita Banana are also very powerful there. Oil, the lack of, is a big issue since Honduras does not have any and it has to be imported. By getting friendly with Chavez and joining ALBA he was able to get a deal for cheaper gas. Zelaya is not a firebrand like Chavez, he just does not have in him. He is amiable and wants to be liked by everyone including the US. He came to Washington invited by Bush and he and his family had a ball. I saw the pictures, he looked like he was ready to kiss Bush, he was so honored by the invitation.
Next chapter, the "encuesta".
The military advisor to the "de facto" President is a man who was involved in deaths, torture and disappearances in Honduras during the Reagan wars in Central America, and had to leave the country to avoid justice. He came back to Honduras in the 90s and is now advising the "President". There is also a racial and class thread running through all this. Zelaya supporters are mostly poor, mestizo, black Garifunas and rural. The poor are 66% of the population. There is apathy there, that part is true, because no matter who is elected the hold of the oligarchy remains the same. Without opportunity and jobs, the young turn to crime or try to immigrate to the US.
More in another comment.
More in another comment.
Let me take a wild guess here : trust fund baby ?
it seems to me that you see things through an ideological blinker and ignore the facts on the posted on the wall.
I'm no fan of the quasi aristocratic oligarchs that dominate most of Latin America politics and businessIMO if one takes a long look one would be on fairly safe ground to claim that a lot of the problems in Latin American politics are a legacy of how the Spanish crown ran it's colonial empire.
But I find the Left's long love affair with leftist caudillos to be a case of sheer idiocy in itself. So you kick of one greedy set of bastard sand you replace him with another set of power hungry idiots whose only difference between is that they claim that they are doing all this for the benefit of the poor and landless...But once in power they behave exactly like the ones they replaced so the only thing the poor campesinos get is that they've traded one aristocratic set of idiots for new pack of thiefs who proceed to behave the same way as the previous lot with the only difference that it is the party leadership who gets all the benefits and perks of the rich and as for the poor all they get are platitudes and an occasional handout to keep them in their place.
Yes i'm a cynical about both the Latin America left and the right.
The worst of it being that they think that by just parroting the line that Zelaya was breaking the law that it makes it so, is just irritatingly smug. No proof, no facts, no chance guys--not with this crowd. Will you and the other oligarchs and their enablers get away with it? Probably. But we're on to you.
Zelaya intended to hold a non-binding public poll ( encuesta ) about the conformation of an elected National Constituent Assembly. To do this, he invoked Article 5 of the Honduran Civil Participation Act of 2006. According to this act, all public officials can hold non-binding public polls to inquire what the population thinks about policy measures. This act was approved by the National Congress and it was not contested by the Supreme Court of Justice when it was published in the Official Paper of 2006.
Zelaya broke no laws. He violated no article of the Honduran Constitution.
CAPITULO III
DE LOS CIUDADANOS
(snipped prior articles)
ARTICULO 42.- La calidad de ciudadano se pierde:
(Snipped section 1-4)
5. Por incitar, promover o apoyar el continuismo o la reelección del Presidente de la República; y,
(Snipped section6)
(snipped references to other sections) y para los casos de los incisos 4) y 5) también por acuerdo gubernativo, previa sentencia condenatoria dictada por los tribunales competentes.
Rougly Translated:
Chatepr 3 Of the citizens...
Article 42 The status of citizenship will be lost if:
5. For Inciting, promoting, or supporting the continuism or reelection of the President of the Republic.
....and for cases of sections 4) and 5) Also by govermental accord, with a prior condemnatory sentence(decree) dictated by the relevant tribunals. (
Where?
How?
What are your proofs for this allegation? Roberto Lovato takes just the opposite view, and has considerable evidence to back it up. Where is yours?
Even "democracies with low quality institutions," are preferable to military coups and suspension of all civil liberties!