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Daniel J. H. Greenwood

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Market Irrationality in the Law School 'Arms Race'

Posted: 05/06/11 05:57 PM ET

In Sunday's New York Times, David Segal correctly identifies so-called "merit" scholarships -- tuition discounts given to students with high LSAT or grades in order to induce them to attend a particular law school -- as a serious problem for students. But the story is headlined "How Law Students Lose ... as Law Schools Win." This is wrong.

In fact, everyone loses. These discounts ought to be banned as illegal price discrimination. As long as they are permitted and US News and World Reports rankings remain influential, Adam Smith's invisible hand of the market will lead students and law schools alike to act in ways that make us all worse off.

"Merit" scholarships should more properly be called "US News & World Report Ranking Rebate Fees": schools give them because they need to maintain entering class GPA and LSATs in order avoid sinking in the USNWR rankings -- not because they believe recipients are likely to be better law students or happier, competent, just or successful lawyers.

Employers hire young lawyers based mainly on potential, and potential is notoriously difficult to assess -- as Yogi Berra says, predictions are hard, especially about the future. USNWR, however, offers simplistic rankings of law schools that allow any hiring partner an easy way to sort applicants and a clear excuse if a hire turns out to be a mistake -- if you hire a student from a highly ranked school and he turns out to be a mistake, it is the school's fault, not the hiring partner's. That makes USNWR key in the entry level hiring market for lawyers. So students who go to higher ranked schools have an easier time getting jobs, and schools that place students well have an easier time attracting students, faculty and alumni contributions.

The result is that USNWR's rankings quickly become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Schools that learn how to play the rankings game attract the students, faculty and money necessary to make real improvements, while schools that don't -- don't. Any school that dares to ignore the USNWR rankings risks a death spiral of rapidly departing employers, students and faculty, leading to lower ranking and even more problems.

Unfortunately, rankings are a zero sum game: if everyone learns to game them, no one can get a competitive advantage. Instead, like Alice in Wonderland's Red Queen, who had to run as fast as she could just to stay in one place, schools feel coerced to spend ever greater sums on whatever USNWR measures just to stay in the same place. And that means increasing tuition in order to offer large discounts to students whose numbers increase the average that USNWR reports.

The consequence is a market-induced disaster.

Students lose -- but not primarily because of the issue David Segal identifies, that students who get unexpectedly low grades unexpectedly lose their scholarships. Instead, students, faculty, the profession and the justice system suffer because competition for USNWR rank leads schools to abandon core aspects of their mission.

First, USNWR rankings distort admissions. No admissions officer would place as much weight on undergraduate grade point averages and LSAT scores as USNWR does. Grades need to be interpreted, not averaged: only a news magazine on a limited budget would treat an "A" in Military Marching from a local community college as a better predictor of legal acumen than a "B" in Organic Chemistry or Ethics from Harvard.

Even more critically, no one gets better undergraduate grades or LSATs for actually wanting to be a lawyer or having the personality traits likely to predict success or happiness in the field, for being committed to justice or wanting to practice in an essential underserved area of the law, or for having the interests and learning style best fitted to a particular school's strengths.

But law schools need their graduates to get jobs, and graduates' ability to get jobs depends on the law school's USNWR rankings. So once some schools decided to get a competitive advantage in the rankings by over-weighting LSATs and grades -- admitting candidates solely because their numbers will improve the school's USNWR rank -- other schools had no choice but to do the same.

And similarly, once some schools decided to shift financial aid to offering tuition rebates to attract students with higher LSATs and grades, the same pressures forced the others to follow along. Today, schools spend vast sums -- Ranking Rebates are the largest budget item at some law schools -- in order to attract students who aren't even the students they really want or are best able to serve.

Second, the market for school rank damages the strongest part of the law school curriculum -- the first year -- and the relationships that underpin the later years.

Most obviously, the threat of losing grants leads students to focus on grades rather than education, and on competition rather than cooperation. Students learn best when they learn together; this is never true more than in law, which is best approached as an ongoing conversation about how we, as a nation, want to live together. Students must join the conversation -- debate the law -- in order to understand it. And students need to learn to work together: law, like most professions, is practiced in groups. But grade-grubbing leads students to see their colleagues as competitive threats, not cooperative assets. Everyone loses.

Slightly more subtly, the first year is where students develop the relationships and skills that faculty and fellow students use to identify leadership strengths and weaknesses that need to be addressed. But the ranking system means that students who do well are tempted to transfer to higher-ranked schools, at the cost of the relationships they've made, the leadership positions they should have assumed and the quality of their education (and, of course, their scholarships). A few highly ranked schools are well-known for using this to game the ranking system: they accept small first year classes (to score better on USNWR's calculations of their entering class GPA and LSATs) and then add lots of second year transfer students (who don't affect USNWR rank) to make the budget balance. Mid-ranked schools, in contrast, replace the top students who leave with similar students from slightly lower ranked schools, but the loss of community, relationships and cooperation hurts everyone. The resulting churn hurts education and morale with no compensating benefit.

Third, the zero-sum competition for rank distorts law school budgets in irrational ways. Instead of using tuition to educate or research or run clinics or help students find jobs, the ranking game leads law schools to spend it on Ranking Rebates to run as fast as they can just to maintain their relative position. If Ranking Rebates were illegal, or if USNWR lost its influence today, many law schools could drop their tuition by a third tomorrow and leave their budgets better off.

Students would be better off if they could focus more on education and less on grades, if they expected to spend three years at one school with colleagues who were doing the same, if they were better able to plan their tuition expenses, and if they had colleagues who were happy rather than disappointed (at having lost a grant) or isolated and frustrated (at having been abandoned or having chosen to abandon personal connections in pursuit of a slightly better chance at a job).

The problem is the natural result of a badly regulated market and the solution is to fix the regulation.

When customers know less than providers, increased competition always, inevitably, focuses on appearances instead of reality. That is why the professions used to self-organize in the days before Market Idolatry: to ensure that those who actually know what best practices are were in a position to do something about it. Properly structured markets align individual interests with collective ones, so that the invisible hand guides people pursuing what is most advantageous individually to do what is best socially. But this does not happen by magic. It requires sound regulation to ensure that providers and their clients focus on quality rather than -- as here -- the appearance of quality.

Law faculty and law students, in general, understand that the system is broken. So do lawyers, who report massive unhappiness in the profession. We even know what to do about it -- focus less on LSATs and grades, for one thing.

But the market makes it impossible for any individual actor to do what is right -- the invisible hand is perverse. What we need is an association of educators empowered to impose common standards, including limits on transfers and "merit" scholarships, and to take other actions to reduce the devastating effects of zero-sum competition for top standing in a simplistic ranking system.

Unfortunately, fixing the law schools' rankings-induced race to the bottom probably would be illegal under current interpretations of the anti-trust laws. Current anti-trust law permits huge corporations to grow so large that they can buy politicians and public opinion, thus threatening the legal foundations of markets where they are most likely to succeed. At the same time, it bars the professions from using collective action to displace markets precisely where market forces are perverse. This is backwards. We need to break up any corporation big enough to lobby effectively for regulatory subsidy of private profit -- and re-organize the professions as self-governing bodies dedicated to public service.

And we need to make price discrimination illegal in the Universities, just as we did more than a century ago for the railroads.

If Ranking Rebates were illegal, many schools could immediately cut their tuition by a quarter or a third. Admissions officers could focus on the qualities that actually predict success in the law, instead of the ones that are easily measured in numerical rankings. Law students would be better able to focus on education, group learning and building relationships with their peers and professors, instead of competitive grade grubbing to keep their grant or transfer to a higher ranked school. And scholarship money could go to those who would best make use of it, instead of those who make schools look better on USNWR's arbitrary rankings.

[The author's much shorter letter on the same topic appeared in the New York Times May 7, 2010.]

 
In Sunday's New York Times, David Segal correctly identifies so-called "merit" scholarships -- tuition discounts given to students with high LSAT or grades in order to induce them to attend a particul...
In Sunday's New York Times, David Segal correctly identifies so-called "merit" scholarships -- tuition discounts given to students with high LSAT or grades in order to induce them to attend a particul...
 
 
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09:35 AM on 05/11/2011
I'll say it here too. What has to be an enormous challenge for law schools is recruiting students who are smart enough to become lawyers and dumb enough to become lawyers.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
healthanalyst
Banned from commenting, so?
09:51 PM on 05/08/2011
Journalism and law are two professions that churn out lots of wide eyed students out for a bad awakening when they find out the the real world is full of their profession. They graduate about as many practicing lawyers each year.
07:12 PM on 05/08/2011
I'm pretty sure that I was one of the first people in my class - at a third tier school - who made more than $100k per year, but it wasn't practicing law. It was that magical "legal-related" category, and that was 5 years after graduating and starting a business where my "job" was essentially two $50,000/yr salaries. To be fair, even "good" law jobs are usually something like that: 80-plus hour weeks to bill 35 hours.

The big problem, IMO, is that the law school system gives out-sized rewards to those who get into the very top law schools because of academic ability (and top 1 or 2% LSAT scores). These people get jobs, but aren't necessarily very good lawyers. Given that few do clerking while taking classes and what I've heard about their BS summer interships, they are almost necessarily not good lawyers, yet.

At the lower tier schools, academic emphasis makes zero sense, at least after the legal writing class. Clerking, usually with a PI, BK, DWI, small business or family lawyer is what almost every student should be doing first and foremost, and might actually learn how to be a lawyer and, more importantly decide if you want to be one.

That's really the problem that law school hides. Oh, and the fact that most law professors have great gigs, and wouldn't/couldn't practice law if their lives depended on it (although they usually are very smart).

Other than that, it's great.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
PolitiConservative
reasoned debate welcomed here
10:08 AM on 05/12/2011
"most law professors have great gigs, and wouldn't/c­ouldn't practice law if their lives depended on it"

without a doubt

please see my comment above
11:40 PM on 05/07/2011
Is it possible that if all law schools in America closed tomorrow, in ten years we will still have too many lawyers?
12:56 AM on 05/08/2011
Probably. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimates that there are 550,000 practicing attorneys in the US. The American Bar Association estimates that there are 1.2 million people in the US with some manner of law degree (JD/LLB/LLM/SJD). Perhaps more tellingly, the BLS estimates that there are about 29,000 entry level attorney positions open each year; 25% of which are temporary jobs. The ABA estimates that there are about 45,000 law school graduates every year. Additionally, the legal market has been contracting since 2007; there are tens of thousands of formerly employed attorneys who are now out of work. It is hard to overstate just how hard it is to find a legal job out of law school, much less a career, much less a career that justifies the $150,000 - $200,000+ investment that law school represents.
09:04 PM on 05/07/2011
"Students learn the most when they learn together; this is never true more than in law, which is best approached as an ongoing conversation about how we, as a nation, want to live together."

What a totally unfounded and baseless claim. The "best" legal minds ever to exist in America were self taught via "reading law' and then apprenticed to practicing lawyers, ( i.e., our founding fathers). the worst lawyer ever produced have come from our current "modern" legal education system.
07:17 PM on 05/07/2011
Law School is a total waste of time and money. Most of the professors have never really practiced law and have little to offer their students. Instead, the lucky students get their training from the law firms where they work. The unlucky ones learn to practice through trial and error.

Law firm hiring decisions are equally irrational. Who wants to be represented by a kid right out of law school who knows nothing about actually practicing law and who has never actually tried a case? But this is exactly what the big firms offer their clients, and at top dollar.
05:34 PM on 05/08/2011
That's an interesting and even plausible story but--as it happens--complete fantasy.

Law schools offer a very valuable education in thinking logically and paying attention to detail, even for those who never practice law, IMHO. As a factual matter, no "big" (i.e.: corporate) law firm lets folks "fresh out of law school" have any direct access to clients, except as a silent observer with a partner of the firm present or on a matter so minor that a good paralegal could handle it. Also, easily half of all practicing lawyers in America never set foot in a courtroom after being sworn in as an attorney--and corporate law firms are where most of them work.

But nice try.
12:40 PM on 05/07/2011
Wait there are jobs for lawyers out there? The missing piece of this article is that law schools are falsely advertising the post-graduation employment and salary statistics of their students. They pay exorbitant salaries for professors jacking up the cost and leaving students with massive debt. Loan payments replace mortgage payments for the next 15 years. The promise of education leading to greater financial gain is gone. I tell anyone considering law school that they better have rich parents or lots of money saved because it's not worth living in perpetual debt.
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xanas
libertarian, voluntarist, anarchist
12:39 PM on 05/07/2011
"schools feel coerced" - And you want to replace the feeling with actual coercion. At least they have choices now even if they feel like they can't take them, but you want to force the your way.

"Grades need to be interpreted, not averaged" - This is a good point, but is more of an argument for an alternative rating system other than one for using force.

"But the ranking system means that students who do well are tempted to transfer" - yeah, and this wouldn't happen without rebates? Come on now, aren't you just debating against other people's choices that you don't like even more now.

"The ranking game leads law schools to spend it on Ranking Rebates" - This is typical of a government advocate to assume that tuition not paid is "spent."

"Properly structured markets align individual interests with collective ones" - There are no collective interests. People are individuals. When individual interests coincide they don't become "collective" interests.

"But the market makes it impossible for any individual actor to do what is right" - According to you, yes, but according to the individual... not so much.
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xanas
libertarian, voluntarist, anarchist
12:15 PM on 05/07/2011
First, law schools are hardly a free market, with government guaranteed loans that can't be discharged through bankruptcy and there being far more laws than should exist. Law is certainly not about justice in this day and age, it's about rules made by petty tyrants. Your ideas are more of the same.

If everyone loses, USNWR will lose reputation with regard to the rankings. There should be no "illegal price discrimination" laws in the first place.

Individuals can and will make choices regarding their futures. Your desire to force them into one future or another because of what you deem best is frankly tyrannical.

"Schools give them because they need to maintain entering class GPA" - why? Why couldn't they instead prove themselves by taking lower GPAs and making them better over the course of their education? Why couldn't they demonstrate through debates or inter-school competitions that their students are the best in other ways? These are entrepreneurial decisions, and if the schools are so bad they can't think of other ways to do their job (and they agree with you that USNWR rankings don't work) they will fail and USNWR will not be respected.

It's sounding more and more like you just want to be able to declare the conclusion of this, but you would never dare to put your own money on the line to prove them wrong. Instead you want the government to come in and take over the situation and do it your way.
01:27 AM on 05/07/2011
A timely article, particularly in pointing out how hiring in the legal profession largely uses USNWR rankings as a proxy to determine who is interviewed and who is not. This is especially prevalent on the coasts.

However, I think that a crucial, and even more devious law school practice was overlooked. That is the perpetual and fraudulent overstating of graduate employment and salaries. These figures play a huge role in drawing top applicants. Consequently, most law schools go through all manner of machinations and Enron-style accounting to claim that 90% or more of their graduates come out with six-figure salaries. This is accomplished in part by throwing away graduation surveys that claim unemployment, temporary employmenr, and nonlegal employment, which these days constitute the majority of law school grads. Naturally, falsely claiming that every grad comes out with a huge salary justifies the absurd cost of attending law school, which is crossing the $70,000 year barrier in NYC/DC/Boston/Chicago/LA/SF as you read these words.

And why charge so much? Because compared to the rest of higher education, it costs next to nothing to operate a law school. Just a building, a library, a handful of bargain basement computers, and a few professors (most can be low-paid adjuncts). Those extra tuition dollars go straight into the pockets of the admin, or, if the school is altruistic, to subsidize loss-making departments, like engineering and medical schools. Result? Many thousands of heavily indebted, unemployed young attorneys.
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healthanalyst
Banned from commenting, so?
10:00 PM on 05/08/2011
You missed how much if any firms kick back to the schools. Happens a lot in business, not so much other fields, though engineering is subsidized, lots of pay for project work.
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ChicagoBob
Save the Earth-It's the only planet with chocolate
11:03 PM on 05/06/2011
College graduates, as with all other fields, vary all over the place. Think of a ven diagram with overlapping circles. There are always a few in the second tier group that outperform some in the first tier group.

The law school rankings in this case allow the lazy firms to hire without serious investigation. Clients should be aware of this.
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realitytrumpsbull
two 'alves of coconut!
10:56 PM on 05/06/2011
Isn't the legal profession pretty much lined up to become one more casualty of the Information Age? We no longer live in caves, are no longer a Nation of simple farmers and an-alphabets, people who cannot read, and must therefore seek legal counsel when they run into problems, because they're less likely to have such problems by virtue of being able to learn about the law to begin with, and know what's legal, and what's not. You can reference legal information online, whatever you need, there, and pretty much help yourself, at this point. 'Education' is just as much a jobs program, as it is anything else, and that includes law school.
05:49 PM on 05/08/2011
"You can reference legal information online, whatever you need, there [sic], and pretty much help yourself, at this point."

Actually, you can't "pretty much help yourself". It would be like skydiving from a biplane over mountains at night with a self-taught pilot and a self-taught parachute packer. You can find and download appellate court opinions, newspaper stories, and whatnot easily enough but without an actual college graduate who earned a postgraduate degree in law and went on first to be licensed by the specific jurisdiction(s) where your problem lies and then to gain experience in the specific areas of relevant law, you'd be all but certain to screw up some minor detail that would do you more harm than good. Beyond that, there's your emotional interest in the matter at hand: it's said that (even) "a lawyer who represents himself (or herself) has a fool for a client."

Even when well-meant, one really shouldn't advise others to do something of great potential harm to them.
06:57 PM on 05/06/2011
I question what the criteria are for ranking law schools in the first place. As a result of my high LSAT score, I was extended a full academic scholarship from a law school at a reasonable tier. I was convinced by "experienced" lawyers to take it and post on the high top tier schools. One of the years I attended, our law school forgot to answer the US News survey and, as a result, our school plummeted in the rankings significantly. So how did that, in any way, change the caliber of student or the quality of the school? Not one iota. But it certainly changed the way the world perceived how young lawyers should be evaluated from our institution and I don't doubt it changed the careers of some young people who would have made superior advocates.