Gaza and the Obama Effect -- Ending the War

Barack Obama is not even President yet but he may have just played a central role in getting to a ceasefire in the current Gaza Israel crisis -- just by being there. All the signals are that we are in a final and ugly escalatory cycle in advance of hostilities being ceased and that the proximity of this war ending to next week's inauguration of the new president is not coincidental.

Here's where things stand:

Egyptian mediation is now reaching a ceasefire package building on U.N. Security Council Resolution 1860, and barring last minute hiccups, it is likely to deliver a breakthrough in the very near future. The elements of that ceasefire package are well known: ending military actions and rocket strikes, withdrawing IDF forces, opening the Gaza border crossings, and preventing future weapons smuggling into Gaza. In fact, one of the most painful truths of this conflict is that these ingredients were known in advance and had the current, frantic diplomacy been conducted one month ago, this terrible human suffering could probably have all been avoided. The details are now being hashed out with the comings and goings of Israeli and Hamas officials in Cairo.

On the Israeli side, there have been fierce disagreements within both the political and military leaderships since Operation Cast Lead was launched. Defense Minister Barak apparently supported a truce during the very first days of the attack. Foreign Minister Livni later got on board for a de-escalation, and with the military chief of staff widely reported to be unenthusiastic about an entrenched and prolonged re-occupation of Gaza, the Prime Minister seems finally ready to bring this to an end.

In recent days, the Israeli media has seemed to be building to this crescendo with generous helpings of propaganda with regards to Israel's achievements and the enfeeblement of Hamas (the true picture is likely to be more mixed).

The Defense Minister also scored his victory photo today with the killing of Hamas Interior Minister Said Siam. While that is the picture most Israelis will be looking at, the rest of the world is likely to be pouring over further bombings of U.N. facilities and a death toll that is now over a thousand, of which according to Israeli estimates, only 360 are Hamas fighters (according to Ofer Shelah in the Maariv newspaper, quoting Israeli military sources). Nevertheless, the war has given Ehud Barak and his Labor party a boost in the run-up to February's elections.

The war has been popular with Israelis and a key element in delaying a ceasefire has been the need for not just one, but two, victory narratives and photos--one each for the two senior ministers whose parties are competing in elections (Livni and Barak). By the way, it's worth remembering that the Iraq War was just as popular with the American public after three weeks as this action is with the Israeli public. But even if Israel ends now, the longer term consequences are likely to be as debilitating for Israel in this situation as they have been for the US in Iraq.

According to the latest news, Livni is now likely to get her own victory photo, too. The Israeli Foreign Minister is on her way to Washington to sign a memorandum of understanding with Secretary Rice regarding American commitments to assist in preventing weapons smuggling into Gaza. It will almost certainly be Rice's last act in office.

Hamas, too, is busy preparing its own victory narrative. They will claim to have withstood the Israeli onslaught and to have deterred the Israelis from entering deeper into the urban warfare awaiting them in Gazan cities. They will assert that despite international efforts to isolate Hamas, they have been negotiating the terms of the ceasefire and that they have achieved their key demand of lifting the closure on Gaza (it's worth noting that according to Israeli's former Mossad chief and former national security adviser, Efraim Halevy, "If Israel's goal were to remove the threat of rockets from the residents of southern Israel, opening the border crossings would have ensured such quiet for a generation"). Expect Hamas to also emerge politically strengthened with President Abbas having looked like a bystander throughout this conflict and even being perceived by many as complicit in the destruction wrought on Gaza. The terrible images emerging from Gaza, and that may get worse (when foreign camera crews finally get into Gaza and the extent of damage becomes known) are likely to generate further sympathy.

If a ceasefire is becoming imminent, then it is fair to assume that while the dynamics of the conflict (Israeli recoil from fully re-occupying Gaza), and the diplomatic effort have played a role, the key element to timing here is the approaching Obama presidency.

First of all, the various actors--and one imagines Israel in particular--will not want to piss on Obama's parade this Tuesday. More substantively, there is an expectation that the new president would have felt compelled to immediately intervene in this situation. While there is an assumption that the Obama administration will remain strongly supportive of Israel, one can also anticipate a more thoughtful articulation of what serves American interests in the Middle East, how the close Israel-America relationship should be managed, and the taking of corresponding efforts to immediately de-escalate this spiraling crisis. It might be pushing the envelope to call Obama the peacemaker here, but it's hard to deny that his impending entrance to the world stage has an effect.

If this conflict does now end (as one desperately hopes it will), then it will of course be the Obama administration that is left to deal with the fall out. The memo of understanding, due to be signed by Israel and the US tomorrow, is one part of that. It seems to be a smart move by Condoleezza Rice to give this to the Israeli Foreign Minister in order to get her fully on board for ending the war. If it is indeed mostly political theater, an election campaign photo-op for Livni, then so be it. But if it amounts to more, then this might well be one final poison chalice that the Bushies are bequeathing to 44. If America is to play an active military role in the Sinai, then expect complications and a scenario with all the makings of nurturing over time another insurgency with possible blowback, and even with consequences for the shaky and unpopular regime of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.

Then there is the rest of the post-Gaza mess: a humanitarian emergency to alleviate, the further weakening of America's regional allies, notably including the Palestinian Authority, and a new wave of anger in the region directed at America and its Israeli ally. The first challenge is to make the elements of the ceasefire actually work--ensure an end to hostilities, an IDF withdrawal, and functioning border arrangements. Immediately following that comes the need to rebuild and rehabilitate Gaza which will require an international effort. Essential here will be to avoid the temptation of using reconstruction assistance as a blunt instrument to advance regime change in Gaza but rather to shape this as a core ingredient in facilitating the beginning of a serious Palestinian national reconciliation. That means changing course on the previous failed policy and encouraging-and not vetoing-third party mediation efforts between Fatah and Hamas.

But it is the bigger picture of the festering Israeli-Palestinian conflict that will continue to sap US credibility and security until a workable equilibrium can be found. That will require a realistic approach not only to Gaza and its rulers but also to the other 94% of the Palestinian territories - the West Bank and East Jerusalem (the '67 territories)--an approach that finally guarantees Israeli security within recognizable borders and Palestinian independence and de-occupation. US leadership will be a prerequisite for achieving it.

This issue has forced itself early onto the Obama agenda and if it returns to the back burner then it is guaranteed to periodically explode in everyone's face, sucking America in and costing America dear. A better option is to push for a workable solution now. Nothing will more dramatically and positively affect the prospects for successful US diplomacy in the vital challenges it faces in this most dangerously destabilized of regions.

Comments

[Chilly TX1]

The only consistant talk here is that it is Israels fault. Also wont stop there, even if the Gaza weopons and terrorists are cleaned out and they bulit a Wal-Mart, well Israel lost. Anyone seen that trend, forever?
Has anyone ever, ever, seen Arabs and Muslims condem any attacks on Israel? Ever?
That should be a clue to what is going on in Gaza. The talk by many here on this blog is the same old thing. We need a new approach, call it a logical approach. Something other than Israel lost and or will lose when this is over.
There is a problem in the Middle East and it starts with religous hatred toward others that do not want to practice Islam or disagree with it. And it reaches far beyond Israel.
Ever notice that people can visit Egypt, go see Cairo and more, but Egypt keeps the locks on their border to Gaza to keep Hamas out?
Has anyone ever seen Israel fire random missles into Gaza or send people to blow themselves up in public places or hide behind women and children, or place families in the same building where they keep their weopons (only to show death toll numbers). The clues are in front of us all to what is really going on in Gaza.

[K Roosevelt]

Chilly. Yes, Muslims very often condemn attacks on Israel. No, the core of the Israel-Palestine problem is not hatred by Muslims for non-Muslims. What is really going on in Gaza is evidenced by the fact that not a single Israeli child has been killed in the current conflict, but over 300 Gazan children have been killed. Your fantasy of Israel as a good and honorable democracy defending itself against attack has no basis in fact. There has ALWAYS, from the very founding of Israel as a state, been a vastly greater number of Palestinians killed by Jews than the reverse. Israeli leaders have repeatedly asserted that 10, 50, 100 Palestinians should be killed for every Israeli killed. Israel has never been concerned about avoiding harm to civilians, in fact it has been a pioneer in intentionally killing civilians in order to try to undermine their leaders. Of course that strategy has never worked, Hamas has been most likely strengthened in popularity by this horrific episode. Chilly, you really shouldn't opine on issues before educating yourself.

[Chilly TX1]

And can you direct me to any of this:
""Chilly. Yes, Muslims very often condemn attacks on Israel. No, the core of the Israel-Palestine problem is not hatred by Muslims for non-Muslims"""

To think that I do not have any idea of what is going on in the Middle East is, well, is rediculous.
As an American, primarily getting involved in the Middle East after 911, I have not concentrated on anything more, other than my work and family. I used to always beleive it was Israels fault, then time started to tell. It is always the same old thing. I am asking for somehting different. Like let's, maybe this one time, get behind Israel. We (the Free World) have never done this. That would be a super big change right? It would also be a first. And we need a lot of firsts over there in the Middle East.

[mommamia526]

The Dutch have a saying: *The best sailors stand ashore*. It is like the dutch, short, to the point and a little sarcastic. All those opinions of a bromwich a levy, and Pali apologists do not really have a solution to anything. O.k. jews would like to be loved, but it will never happen. Oh, well, as long as we do our very best. Like the abused wife - and some of us have been abused wives and jews - we can always change ourselves, be better, try harder, do more. And, then one day, we realize it is not going to make one iota of a difference. So, that is when the wife files for divorce, or the Israeli will rid himself of the abusing assailant. The Palis in kidnapping and attacking, burrying into Israeli territory, shooting off kassams, threatening to murder and annihilate, as a different entity, commit acts of war. Hamas is being offered a longlasting cease fire, but they will not accept a cease fire, except on THEIR terms, i.e. a cease fire WITH ONGOING REVENGE OF THEIR CASUALTIES OF THIS WAR! This comes down to Israelis lie down their weapons and Hamas continues to revenge. It is still a cease fire, to be sure, cease the Israeli fire. Now, if all those sailors ashore would come up with solutions to Darfur, high seas terrorism, etc., etc. which will PROVE to WORK I would gladly listen to them.

[Chilly TX1]

Nice, just trying or attempting to get a conversation started other than the same old thing: the reason the nice people in Gaza are sending random missiles into Israel and blowing them selves up in public places is to restore peace. The Arabs and Muslims seem to use this tactic everywhere around the world.
Until the Islam religion is taken out of all of this (and out of their governments) this will just keep happening around the world and of course in Israel.
Religion has no place in governments.
If we were to take the religious part out of all this, there would be legal disputes and legislation and eventualy a legal binding understanding of a peace treaty, and the treaty would have some meat behind it if someone were to break the law.
America and other free countries figured this out a long time ago, oh we are not perfect but we are free. That is the one thing that the people of Gaza may never experience as long as they are the puppets of the other Arab and Muslim nations that arm feed and breed the people of Gaza to kill Israel. I keep thinking, what if the people of Gaza knew what life was like to be truly free, to have children educated with careers, hospitals and so on, they would not want to continue being puppets. But they no nothing else, but to fight for the religion of Hamas.

[Realisticat]

So, you are giving Barack Obama (who isn't even president yet) credit for playing the CENTRAL role in a cease fire (that hasn't taken place yet). Hmmm... And I suppose if the cease fire falls through it'll be Bush's fault?

LIBS... lol

[exotic]

i am not posting on the presidential election;I am posting re: the crisis in Gaza

[exotic]

there has to be a CHANGE in our policy immediately. I am counting on UN ambassador Rice to be the leader.

[rightbackatu]

Dear Hamas,

Stop firing rockets into Israel. You don't have the manpower and weapons to destroy Israel. You are hurting your own people and making them suffer for your actions.

Dear Israel,
Quit trying to snub out the Palestinians. You took their land away from them and have moved them to walled in prisons. End this massacre now.

[digitalprophet]

So let me get this straight..­.. Most comments here are upset with Israel. And any act of Obama to try to keep peace there is considered him pandering to Israel.

Would you people rather they blow themselves up more and more and we sit back and not do anything to promote peace, even if it is biased towards Israel(a country of peoples harassed time in and time out over thousands of years)?

The thing with international policy(or politics in general) is you rarely get to have your cake and eat it to. That's diplomacy. Either be happy there might be peace in sight, or go help Hamas fight back.

[StopNThink]

nice to know that Barak and Livni got some election mileage out of the carnage. Good for them. Maybe mccain could have slaughtered some Mexicans, might have put him over the top.

Obama is (a) as pro-Israel as the rest the senior US leadership - bought and paid for. Look at his mideast team of Israel apologists for proof, then (b) arriving on the scene when all Arabs are seething and plainly blaming the US for complicity and worse (c) arriving just before Netanyahu wins.

All this guarantees more settlement building, more poinltless negotiations wherein the US/Israeli side tries to bully the ARab side and the arabs look intransigent for not accepting crumbs with a smile, more death by the 1000's.

>>>and Michale 32086 - please save your fingers the typing effort= yes, all terrorism is unacceptable, all arabs are evil, Israel is perfect, don't hide among civilians, show me proof etc
I don't know why the other posters here bother engaging this propagandist who clearly has no job except camping on Huffington.

[Michale32086]

}}}}
>>>and Michale 32086 - please save your fingers the typing effort= yes, all terrorism is unacceptable, all arabs are evil, Israel is perfect, don't hide among civilians, show me proof
}}}}}

Well, out of all that only the first one was accurate..

I am somewhat amazed, though, that someone would require PROOF that terrorism is unacceptab­le...

Michale...­..

[mommamia526]

Hamas will not accept a ceasefire containing any Israeli conditions,such as stop digging tunnels into our territory,stop shooting off rockets into our territory.­AND they will accept a ceasefire where Israel can not set any conditions and they are setting their conditions­.They will agree to such a ceasefire,­however,th­ey will continue to revenge the deaths of their fallen terrorists! StopandThink. There are Palestinian Arabs in the U.S. who are scared as hell.No, not of Americans, jews or Israelis,but of their fellow Arabs. Some are forced back into Islam, forced to wear ME outfits, and one I know of still was murdered. Islamists (Arabs) are murdering people in Darfur!! No manner of negotiation stops them.Musli­ms stop free speech and expression in Europe,and murdr each other over speech of individuals in...Denma­rk!! Who built the settlements in Lebanon? Who in Gaza? Why does Jordan not want their Palis back, or Egypt their Gazans? I think you should stop your typing efforts, dear, just Stop, and try to Think first and get some facts. No one says all Arabs are evil.We ARE saying that some Arabs are terrorists and terrorists are evil.I am saying, personally, in addition,that if a man does not work, is a terrorist, and maintains a fourstory building with four wives and 36 children, hides behind them and among them, he is guilty when his own spawn dies.

[MalleusMaleficarum]

This is a competent synopsis that elides one huge elephant in the room: the fact that the agreement between Livni and Rice is designed to be a diplomatic mechanism to demonize the Palestinian people as the wickedly militant rocket-wielding terrorists in contrast to the angelic and pacifist Israelis who are the victims of terrorism. No other nation in the world would swallow this one. With more than 4,000 dead Palestinians killed by the IDF and IAF since 2000 in contrast to the 30 Israelis who died as a result of rocket fire, who are Livni and Rice attempting to persuade? The answer is clear: the gullible American public and its equally gullible MSM. The first task should be humanitarian relief and the US should not attempt to enforce a weapons-smuggling ban on Gaza, an impossible task that could devolve into yet another quagmire to accompany other quagmires neocons in Washington and Israel prodded us into: Iraq; Afghanistan and the greater Persian Gulf. Obama should beware of any and every diplomatic agreement inked by Rice in the final phase of the Gotterdammerung of the Bush Era.

[justice2all]

Israel only has US supporting this massacare at this point.

[Michale32086]

@zaz33

}}}}}
Machale - I suspect that weapons was a small percentage of what was smuggled through the tunnels.

Do you have a link to prove me wrong?
{{{{{{

Who needs a link..

It's agreed that Palestinians are starving..

It's also documented from HAMAS stating that they have thousands of tons of weapons, missiles and military equipment.­.

Imagine if they had brought in food instead of all that weaponry..

I dare say we would not be having this discussion­...

Michale...­..

[justice2all]

If Hamas has all those weapons why is there only 10 Israeli soldiers dead while 1000 Gazans dead? And 7 of those Israeli soldiers died from 'friendly' fire. Hamas has the capabilites of a 15th Century army

[Michale32086]

Because they got them from IRAN... It's like getting high end appliances from Pic n Save....

Michale...­..

[livnletlive]

Israel holds most of the peace cards if it wanted peace....e­ven for Hamas, Israel's targeted assasination to Hamas operatives mainly targeted the moderate wing in Hamas leaving the extremists­...if you examine the assasinated sheik Yasin statements along with the late Ranteeci after him, they all were in favor of a long term truce and actual words were "palastinian infighting is a redline or a taboo" Israel did exactly the same when it killed all the Carismatic leaders of the PLO like Abu jehad, and even Arafat leaving the corrupt ones and the theives like Dahlan because it fits their needs which are to fester more infighting since such bad leaders are not embraced by the people and it deflects Israel from paying the price of peace...i.­e withdrawal since their excuse will always be "we have no valid partner". I am not certainly a conspiracy theorist and palastinians and arab shoulder plenty of blame for their dismal situation but Israel plans things shrewdly and just like an antibiotic does, when you kill the good bacteria or flora you will end up with the opportunistic disease causing ones....th­e politics of the middle east are more complicated than putting a chart of how many rockets were fired when......­Israel wanted this to buy time on building settlement­s.....till the west bank is swiss cheeze and the 2 state solution is no longer possilbe..­.

[zaz33]

livnletlive - interesting observation which makes sense. I don't believe there are short term goals for the US, Israel, and the Europeans.

Gaza is just another "birth pang" to put the Middle East under the thumb of the "coalition"

[Michale32086]

@SERGIOUK

}}}}
Israel is decimated and hated in all corners of the World. Hamas will live to fight another day. I'm not too sure of Israels prospects.­....
{{{{

There is a phrase in meteorology that fits your statement perfectly.

It's called "wishcasti­ng"....

Michale...­..

[justice2all]

No...It's called reality

[Michale32086]

And your evidence is....????­?

Thought so...

Michale...­...

[YR]

"It might be pushing the envelope to call Obama the peacemaker here, but it's hard to deny that his impending entrance to the world stage has an effect."

I'm sorry but Levy's above statement is ridiculous. Israel started this war to get as much support for it in the Bush's waning days and for their own election purposes. Obama's inauguration only figured as the outside limit to their war. And in the name of self-defense, their propaganda justified a disproportionate killing and maiming of Palestinian children and their parents, decimating their homes and infrastructure, and leaving scars seen and unseen for the unforeseeable future. Israeli politicians disgust me. And their MSM has covered Gaza the same as ours has, in a biased and flawed way.

See
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jDNXSKy5hAvIp-4y37J-q3q_Trzw

"Israel's usually unforgiving media has had to fend off accusations that it has practised self-censorship and muzzled dissent with its overtly patriotic coverage of the army's offensive in Gaza."

[Pippen]

YR, your wrong and your wrongness is based on your bias towards Israel and to Jews. Your post is tainted like poison throughout your postings.

You even go so far as to suggest that they may not have been attacked (missles) and they (Jews) made up the story to have a reason to invade Gaza for election purposes ! The missle launch on Israel was aired on world television and shared through out the journalist polls.

You sir/woman are not credible.

You deny that Hamas launched missles into Israel near a civilian community near where teenagers load up on school buses to argue against Israel's defense of their nation ?! Well I guess we can thank Allah that your not one of the diplomats negotiating the peace because reality and justice escape you.

[YR]

Your interpretation of my posting is not credible.

[bigbadsam]

Obama will be in the pocket of Israel the same as all of his predecessors. The majority of both houses of congress will sell out American interests in favor of Isreal. There will be no peace if they have their way. The only hope is that the rest of the world gets fed up and acts in concert to force a settlement in Palestine.

[Michale32086]

A well written article..

I think it gives HAMAS too much credit and also exaggerates the prestige that HAMAS will get from this. HAMAS is decimated, there is no doubt. Many of it's top leaders in Gaza (not the ones hiding in Damascus) have been killed.

Hopefully, the Palestinian people will remember that their leaders went into hiding and forced innocent civilians to take the brunt of Israeli's assault... I don't hold out much hope for that, however...

Time will tell..

Michale...­..

[nkc46]

you are right. the palestinian people are more likely to remember being starved of food and medicine for a year before being shelled and airstriked for a month as part of an israeli election campaign

[Michale32086]

And you don't find it strange that HAMAS can smuggle in thousands of tons of weapons, but can't smuggle in enough food??

Talk about selective seeing...

Michale...­..

[zaz33]

I'm not convinced that the US and Israel will allow Hamas and Fata to be unified. I suspect they will see to it that Abbas ,the puppet, will emerge the dictator of all the Palistinians.

Even if Abbas is anointed the dictator the spirit of resistance will continue without and in spite of him.

Hamas is just a name.

[SERGIOUK]

Israel is decimated and hated in all corners of the World. Hamas will live to fight another day. I'm not too sure of Israels prospects.­....

[AntiSocialite]

C'mon Michale, you don't find it the least bit disingenuous to say, without a doubt, that Hamas is decimated? By their own account Israel has killed 360 Hamas fighters, which i must say is a fairly large amount but, they also managed to kill about 750 innocent civilians and injure roughly 5150 others. So the Innocent:Hamas kill ratio is fully 2 to 1, without even considering those injured.

Now, out of those 750 civilians how many had a husband, wife, father,mother, brother, sister, aunt, uncle, or cousin that now see Israel as the cause of their loved ones death? Add to that the fact that the same government that just killed their loved one has also been keeping their entire neighborhood, town, and virtually all of their ethnicity segregated and blockaded, making even basic needs like food, water, medicine, and now thanks to the renewed fighting shelter extremely hard to come by.

Does this seem like the portrait of a suicide bomber, because it sure does to me. Look, it's no secret that people in desperate situations do desperate things and no amount of denunciation or righteous indignation will change that. Where these people live and the conditions that they live in are scarcely better than a prison colony and until something about that changes and Palestinian kids can see something in their future other than violence and destruction "martyrdom," will continue to look like an attractive option.

Peace

[maddogbitesback]

Time has told.

[Michale32086]

It ain't over til the fat bald guy sings..

And trust me, you don't want me to break out in song... :D

Michale...­..

[SiberianRat]

The fact that all of this massacre was fueled by politics (i.e., essentially a political stunt) is beyond reprehensible. Hopefully the violence will cease soon, but our vigilance should not. We MUST pressure our government to radically change our policy toward Israel and to radically (by 100%, if I had my way) reduce the aid we send there. Israel pulls this kind of stuff often--we cannot, we MUST not support it any longer.