Clinton's Last Stand?

Welcome to the last presidential voting day until November 4th. The last presidential primary is upon us, and yet all eyes are fixed on New York, not on South Dakota and Montana. There have been no Zogby tracking polls, no wall-to-wall CNN coverage from Helena or Rapid City. Instead, every single one of Hillary Clinton's movements has been scrutinized for clues as to her plans: Will she drop out tonight? Will she give an uncommitted speech and drop out in the coming days once Obama reaches 2,118 delegates? Or is her campaign serious about its repeated threats to continue their quest all the way to the Denver convention?

There no longer is an obvious route for her campaign to take. For the past three months, Clinton had been avoiding the pressure to drop out by claiming she had to stay in until every voter was able to vote and she kept herself busy by campaigning full time, traveling to states that were holding primaries (even Puerto Rico last week-end).

After tonight, she can continue her quest for the nomination, but with what rationale? In a statement yesterday, Clinton laid out the case for her candidacy:

Tomorrow is the last day of the primaries and the beginning of a new phase in the campaign. After South Dakota and Montana vote I will lead in the popular vote and Senator Obama will lead in the delegate count. The voters will have voted and so the decision will fall to the delegates empowered to vote at the Democratic Convention. I will be spending the coming days making my case to those delegates.

Clinton is trying to put herself on par with Obama, as if both had won one of the counts, putting them on equal footing. But the popular vote argument is a difficult one for her to make as she would have been in a stronger position had she surpassed Obama with a count that includes all the caucus states. Instead, the best count in which Clinton is ahead is one that includes Michigan and grants the uncommitted to Obama but does not include estimates for four caucus states that have not released raw numbers. Note that these numbers could change again tomorrow.

Meanwhile, the Obama campaign will try to make it easier for Clinton to take her decision by ensuring that the third option no longer be on the table once Hillary, Bill and her team meet to discuss the end game. They do not want to appear to be pressuring her to drop out, but they are working overtime to ensure that enough superdelegates endorse them from this afternoon to tomorrow evening for the threshold to be crossed sometime soon. And there are many reports circulating that dozens of superdelegates -- particularly House members but perhaps even Senators, as Ken Salazar and Tom Harkin (both undeclared right now) are pressuring their colleagues -- will rally behind the Illinois Senator starting tonight.

In other words, Obama is likely to surpass 2,118 in the coming days -- and probably open up a substantial margin. The question then for Clinton is no longer to justify to superdelegates why they should endorse her (and thus have a reason to stay in the race) but justify why she is staying in the race after Obama has clinched a majority of delegates.

Finish reading this post at Daniel Nichanian's blog, Campaign Diaries.

Comments

[NetProphet]

I have never read so many ANTI-HILLARY remarks. This is a FINE way to treat a fellow Democrat - who saw the light after Reagan took office with his mystical might of theatrical rhetoric - if there's a soul out there who can remember what that man did to this country. And she has been a staunch Democrat ever since.

IF YOU ALL ARE TRULY Democrats, you should realize we FINALLY HAVE two distinguished (and I'm including Barack Obama, of course) for the Democratic ticket - - - - AND TO WIN THIS NOMINATION IN NOVEMBER. And what do you all decide to do - as a slap in the face to your potential nominee, Obama, but ignore his chances at WINNING...­....IN NOVEMBER.

This is what it's about: WINNING OUR GOALS over the agressive, beligerent, 100-year war policies of
McCain. What you're doing is only making it easier for the media to RUIN THE POTENTIAL double-edge victors ( and I'm including both Clinton and Obama) that the Dems have strong.

Don't spoil it. Clinton will ( and has made many concessions and respectful comments and encouragement over to the Obama camp (and so has he!......L­ISTEN between his comments)

DON'T FALL TRAP TO THE GOPpers tactics. As Obama has said: "We don't want a 3rd term of more Bush-McCain!"

[researcher]

She missed her calling

She should have been a repub

Slime politics is right up her ally

The scary part almost 18 million voted for her but then how many folks voted for bush and Cheney.

Mc war loves her maybe he will make her his vp.

the fems would have voted for Eva Braun to have a woman in the white house

She was so easy to figure out as a politician. Lust for power at any price.

Integrity and Hillary are not synonyms.

Thank you America for sinking her ship

[tedbear]

I know what Hillary and Bill can do next. They can go to a third world country and take it over. They think they can strong arm their way back into the White House, even though she lost tonight.

She actually thinks she can FORCE US TO ACCEPT HER. AFTER WHAT SHE DID TONIGHT, SHE DOES NOT RESERVE ANY RESPECT, SHE DOESN'T DESERVE ANY ACKNOWLEDGEMENT AND ALTHOUGH OBAMA SHOWED HER RESPECT, SHE DOESN'T DESERVE IT.

Tonight Hillary Clinton proved she is a classless thug, trailer trash of the worst kind, because she knows better. To not concede to her opponent is as low as you can go. How can her supporters hold their heads up tonight, after their candidate embarassed them in front of the entire world. Imagine,
losing an election and not admitting it. It is proof of the Clinton's insanity. They cannot lead a country because they are cons who think they can bogart people out of their way, and because they live in Clintonland, an alternate reality only they live in.

[heal57]

Hillary has no class or grace, just like Bill; only he could fool people back when. The night Obama won was about him and our country; not all about 'what Hillary wants' cause we just don't care. She set women back 50 years with her complaining and nasty wisecracks about Obama; such a double standard. She thought she had a coronation February 5th. Her sense of entitlement is most disturbing.
She won't concede even after Obama wins the election.

Independent for Obama '08

[slope142]

Hillary, I love ya babe, but it's over. Time to think about the party and doing what we can to get those damned republicans out of office. You haven't run the campaigne I would have loved to see but you did your best. I think you've got a lot of class. Show it now.