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Polls: McCain Leads In Colorado, Ties In Ohio
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John McCain, Mccain Battleground States, Mccain Colorado, Mccain Obama Colorado, Mccain Obama Ohio, McCain Ohio, Mccain Ohio Colorado, McCain Polls, Mccain Swing States, McCain West, Obama Ohio,
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Only two presidential polls were released over the week-end, but they are both important in what is becoming a presidential roller-coaster, much like the 2004 election (on this day four years ago, Electoral-Vote.com had John Kerry leading George Bush 327 to 211 EVs) -- quite a contrast with the continuing good news for Dems from down-the-ballot races:
- In Ohio (polling history), Obama loses the lead he had these past two months in PPP polls (including 8% in July). In the August edition, he is tied with McCain at 45% due to a poor performance among registered Democrats -- only 75%, particularly among whites and females (we know who they supported in the primary…). This means that Obama is unable to exploit the swing in partisan ID (from +5 GOP in 2004 to +7 Dems in this poll).
- In Colorado (polling history), a poll conducted for CBS/Rocky Mountain News by Public Opinion Strategies (a Republican firm) but designed by a Democratic firm finds McCain leading 44% to 41% - within the margin of error.
Only PPP found that big a lead for Obama in July, and most surveys from the state have found a narrow race; so the tie is not particularly traumatizing for Democrats. Yet, the survey’s internals are more troubling. More than two months have passed since he wrapped up his party’s nomination, and he is very much at the same point he was on June 3rd: The massive shifts in partisan identification should give him an advantage, but that would require him to solidify his support among the Democratic base. Getting 75% of Ohio Democrats will not be enough come November 4th.
It has long been clear that Barack Obama would not select Hillary Clinton as his nominee unless he had to do so to unify the party. Not all polls are showing such weak numbers for Obama among self-identified Democrats, but if the campaign’s internals are showing similar results, did they dismiss Clinton too early? The Obama campaign still has work to do to appeal to the white, blue-collar electorate that shunned the Illinois Senator in the primaries.
As for Colorado, it is no longer a surprise to see McCain leading in a poll -- and this is one of the most unfortunate polling developments for the Obama campaign. McCain had never led in a Colorado poll until July 24th’s Quinnipiac survey; then came Rasmussen, and now this CBS poll. All surveys found McCain’s margin within the margin of error - but so were Obama’s leads. The only reason for Democrats to feel confident based on Colorado polling was that Obama’s narrow edge was consistent; now 3 of the past 5 polls (including 2 of the 3 released in August) have McCain ahead. Colorado is more of a toss-up than ever.
Meanwhile, in the one down-the-ballot poll we got over the week-end:
- In the Tennessee Senate race, competing internal polls by the campaigns of Republican Lamar Alexander and Democrat Bob Tuke find very little to compete about, with both finding the GOP incumbent crushing his opponent: 60% to 30% and 54% to 32%.
This race made some noise a while back -- but that was because of speculation that Lamar Alexander might choose to retire. Sure, Bob Tuke is more credible a candidate than in many other races, but we are unlikely to hear much about this race (or Tennessee in general) in the months ahead.
Read more at Daniel Nichanian's blog, Campaign Diaries.
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I've been living in Colorado, was in Colorado for the 2004 elections, trust me, Bu$h only won our state by something like eight points over Kerry. We also sent the Democratic Salazar brothers to Congress, and also succeeded in electing a Democratic governor.
Obama will carry Colorado, don't believe what the polls say. Even if McCain ends up winning, that's just 9 EV...
As for Ohio, I'm sure they are tied because of the two conflicting DHL ads from both camps being shown there, but once people there find out about the real McCain, Ohio will shift Dem. Not to mention no Kenneth Blackwell to do a corrupt election with voting machines, the Dems have Ohio under control this election season. I fail to see why the good people of Ohio would vote for more job losses with McCain...
Obama/Whomever 08
You fail to see how the "good people" of Ohio would vote for more job losses with McCain...? Apparently you are unfamiliar with the sickness in a large portion of the American electorate, that is, the sickness that makes them vote against their own economic interests every fours year. Ohio traditionally has been a right-of-center state politically, no doubt due in large part to its high level of German ethnicity (the ol' "Achtung/Sieg Heil" mentality), and its citizens, like those in so many other states, get caught up in the "God-Guns-Gays" red herrings the GOP tosses out every election cycle that they ignore the real pressing social, economic and environmental issues that truly affect them. Ohio may not go for Obama, even in spite of the fact that Ken Blackwell no longer is manipulating the Diebold voting machines in the Buckeye State.
Wilbur
the reason Obama is loosing in thoses states is because people see the real deal!!! he dissed Hillary(a woman) he says he dont need her, he is going to win - We women do not like that and we will just have to show him that he will not win without her - i will die and go to hell before i vote for him. John Mcain you just go another Democratic vote!!!
Regarding the "shifts" in voting - you have to factor in the "Democrat for a Day" and Operation Chaos that was full-throttle ahead in Ohio and Texas. Pushed by Bill Clinton who appeared on the Rush Limbaugh show on the day of the primary even. That's why those people on the rolls as "registered Democrats" for the polling purposes aren't voting for Obama - they were McCain voters all along.
Obama is losing because he promised change, but is now voting for what Bush wants. The change he promised isn't the government, it's him; he's changing
Wait for the convention and the debates.
Polls are meaningless. Anyone could make up their own numbers to suit what they want
The only polls I heard were on Friday, Aug. 15th. The Gallop polls showed the candidates in a dead heat , 44-44, reflecting a 3 point drop by Obama.No mention was made of the location of the polls.
I suspect that Obama may be sinking for a number of reasons. People are getting tired of his rhetoric. His words are many but his point is lost in his words. People are having the chance to take a good look at this candidate & find him lacking in substance. Obama's replies to various questions put him on the slow track, such as his replies on the Georgia situation.
If the Dems were smart, they would take a new count of the delegates & see if the delegates, even those pledged to him, are as tired of Obama as the voters seem to be getting to be. Truly, after only 143 days as a Senator, he is still wet behind the ears & hasn't learned enough to know the forwards & backwards of being a politician, much less a President. Let them nominate a far worthier person like Sen. Joe Biden or Clinton. I am afraid that if they do not change their course, the race will go to the GOP in November, a result that will bring us more of the Republican shananigans.
How can you be tired of the rhetoric when Obama is the only one that has a plan to fix our country? You hardly hear McCain talk except when he says something bad about Obama. That is the person you should be tired of. McCain's lack of issues and all condemnation campaign is the one I'm tired of and will be when November comes around.
Like you, I didn't expect this kind of thoughtful and even kindly reaction. Yes, we do have the Idiot Vote, and there's not much you can do about this. In our district, Mary Jo Kilroy didn't have a chance against Deborah Pryce, or so it seemed -- because of the rural gerrymandering -- but that didn't happen, she lost by only 1,000 votes and Pryce won't run any more. Again, I'm only talking about my experience, but my experience was that open-minded people were let down by Kerry and the lack of specifics. Not being convinced they went, quite tragically, with the status quo.
This is the ad I would like the Obama Compaign to run, especially in Ohio:
"Isn't the time is now that we begin to judge our next President by the cabinet he will keep? Mr. McCain claims to know little about economic policy, yet his chief economic adviser, the former CEO of Hewlett Packard, Carley Fiorina, has been one of the biggest off-shorer of jobs of the large corporations. When confronted with this, her retort was, 'No one has a God given right to a job!' Mr. McCain, who professes to be the biggest 'free trader' there is, seems to not truly care while Ohio's economic viability withers and dies. Isn't time to realize that our family viability and welfare cannot be risked to the ideology of the likes of Carley Fiorina? This is one 'sucker's bet' not to be taken!"
I believe that with this ad, Carley Fiorina will become history faster than you can shout "Phil Gramm"
Louis A. Carliner
Masaryktown, FL
Would Obama release the members of his cabinet? Whose company does he keep? This works both ways, ya know.
"Whose company does he keep?"
That's easy. For starters, just look at the list of participants in his economic meeting not too long ago. This is common knowledge for those who take the time to know the candidates.
This is the adI would like for Mccain to run, Resco, VP, Wright Secretaryof State and Ayers Press Secretary.
It's August. Enough said.
McCain lost Colorado this past weekend.
http://www.denverpost.com/opinion/ci_10218277
"McCain lost Colorado this past weekend.
http://www.denverpost.com/opinion/ci_10218277"
He's lost Utah, New Mexico and Wyoming, too.
McCain is toast, this election is over.
McCain will never lose Utah and/or Wyoming, as they are the two most conservative states in the nation.
The only way a Dem could win Wyoming is if about 100,000 Dems moved to make Wyoming their permanent residences and voted in every election. Not out of the realm of possibilities, though!
Wilbur
You better hope Obama does not get in the White House - he is going to throw you under the bridge - You are going to be in for a big surprise . CHANGE!!!!!!!
Has anyone noticed how the Clinton campaign has been playing out lately? Not so ready from day one, I think.
Here's the problem I had as a campaigner for Kerry in 2004. In my Ohio district, which is about 50-50, I had few turn-downs (i.e., "my mind is made up, I'm voting for Bush"), and most people were very willing to talk, to understand where Kerry stood on the issues. They clearly recognized that the issues were complex and they were willing to be persuaded. After a few of these sessions, I realized I was giving them "my answers," and not "Kerry's answers," and that I had very little to go on -- I couldn't recall a speech or some dramatic advertising that in any way wasn't vague or clicheish. Clearly in Ohio, people want more than cliches, and I fear the same thing is happening with Obama right now. The ads that run show how out-of-touch McCain is, and identify that we have problems. Where are the "plans," the "steps" to get us out of these various messes? I know that deep down in the literature you can find the answers, but they need to be on the surface, for people to see and, yes, even feel.
Ohio was a big reason we got Bush for two terms. It's hard to believe they care about issues, "plans," "steps," "solutions," or what have you in any realistic way at all.
Obama has been talking a lot about how he intends to fix America. He doesn't use a lot of cliches but he does use them from time to time.
The problem is with the media. They have failed to inform the public on the issues and they want to make this into a dramafest in which one goes after the other's throat and vice versa.
Just yesterday Obama stated that he wants to help middle class Americans and what his plans are. Yet the media covered McCain lashing out on Obama once again.
Stop listening to the media. Go and do your homework. Look up videos and audios of what Obama has been saying throughout this campaign. There is a wealth of information that has been drowned out by the media bias against Obama.
I live in Denver. My neighborhood is awash with Obama signs and I have yet seen a sign for McCain.
Its true we have Tancredo country in the south part of the state but he is toast. I can hardly image the mountain communities being for McCain since they are populated with some pretty liberal people.
Maybe the pollsters can take a show of hands at the Obama speech with its 75000 seats filled and a long waiting list.
Where are they getting the signs? I have made three trips to Obama HQ. Twice to the Santa Fe office and once to the Colorado Blvd office. They don't have one sign. Haven't had any in months. This campaign is as disorganized as Kerry's. You will not see a single sign in Eastern Colorado. I get three phone calls a day. Why? I am committed. Call someone else.
I got my sign at a caucus meeting..its not a yard sign but a sign I have stapled to my fence. I was not aware that they are so hard to get, maybe after the convention they will be available. Do you agree, most Colorado people I know are for Obama but you know we have a lot of those redneck types hanging around. If Colorado does not go for Obama it is really going to hurt us particularly since we have the DNC convention.
I am going to try to remain positive.
I couldn't get Obama signs in Pittsburgh neither. I made many calls.
Go to www.BarackObama.com and under store you can order them for $8.00. It goes directly to his campaign too. Unless you're lucky enough to get on at HQ across the country this will be the only assured way to get one. They're going like hotcakes!
We should be looking at support ranges, not individual numbers. If Poll 1 shows Candidate A at 45%, with a margin of error is +/-3 points, then the poll is saying that Candidate A has a support range of 42-48%. Now if Poll 2 has Candidate A at 40%, also with a margin of error of +/-3 points, that means that this poll's support range for Candidate A is 37%-43%. Now superimpose the polls' support ranges for Candidate A. The result is a support range of 42-43%.
When a poll comes along which doesn't match all of the previous polls, then we need to calculate new support ranges. Also we now know which candidates are showing upward or downward movement and by how much.
Doing all of the above, we discover the following:
Colorado tied: Obama 45.5-46.6 McCain 45-47.2
Virginia tied, trending Obama: Obama 45-48 McCain 44.1-46.1
Missouri McCain: McCain 46.4-46.5 Obama 44.5-45.5
Michigan Obama: Obama 45.4-48.4 McCain 40.5-43.5
Ohio Obama: Obama 46.4-47.5 McCain 41.8-42.6
Florida McCain: McCain 46-52 Obama 39-44
In other words, the claims of Obama's "problems" in these states, and his need to "reconsider" Hillary for veep, are based on very flimsy evidence. Obama is leading or trending up in three of these states, trending up in one, tied in one and losing in two.
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