McCain Strategy Unveiled: Another New Map

Showcasing its general election strategy, the McCain campaign released data, slides and maps from a recent briefing. The strategy plan now runs basically as a PowerPoint presentation given by Campaign Manager Rick Davis at the McCain website. In addition to basically indicting the Bush Administration ("Today's political environment is among the worst in modern history for Republicans. Voters are frustrated with the current administration. The wrong track numbers for our country are at a historic highpoint."), the material confirms that McCain will portray Obama as "outside the mainstream" and will seek to use his opponent's clear problems in Appalachia (which include Southeastern Ohio and Southwestern Pennsylvania) to take control of the states Democrats have been hoping to contest. The campaign released the following electoral map of the states it believes McCain will be able to strongly contest:

The extent to which both parties believe they will be able to "change the map" this cycle is remarkable, especially when we consider that this was one of Obama's main electability arguments against the more traditional approach of the Clinton campaign. McCain's map is most remarkable in terms of what is left out and the two surprising states that are included. First, notice the exclusion of:

Red states that the Obama campaign is planning on contesting, starting with Colorado, Virginia and North Carolina, in what is an attempt to downplay Obama's competitiveness in traditionally Republican areas. Note how confident McCain sounded today when asked about Virginia's new status as a swing state. "We will win," he insisted.

Florida and West Virginia, traditional swing states which the GOP is a bit more confident of carrying with Obama bearing the Democratic mantle.

Washington and Oregon, traditional swing states which McCain is said to want to compete but which Obama will have an easier time defending than Clinton would have.

New Jersey, Iowa and Minnesota, states in which polls find a tight race and which the GOP is committed to contesting (particularly if McCain chooses Gov. Pawlenty), so I am puzzled as to their exclusion.

The exclusion of Minnesota and Iowa when Michigan is included confirms that MI will be at the center of McCain's campaign and should be considered as one of the most important battles of the campaign, along with PA and OH. Obama could conceivably lose the latter two but get to the White House through a less conventional route, but the loss of all three states would surely be fatal to Democratic hopes.

Furthermore, the exclusion of those two states and of New Jersey's is striking considering the campaign's choice to list California and Connecticut, two states which conventional wisdom (and polls) rate as more safely anchored in the Democratic camp. While the map-changing potential of McCain's appeal to independents is undeniable, it is hard to envision that it could lead the Republican to an upset in the Golden State without first putting him on top in a state like Oregon.

In fact, California's inclusion can be best described as an effort by Republicans to get Democrats worried about the state, forcing them to spend resources defending this must-win state instead of setting their sights in more interesting contests. The GOP sets a similar trap every 4 years, though Democrats rarely fall for the trick; in 2000, Al Gore did not revisit his campaign plans to defend California and it is George Bush who wasted the most time pretending like the contest there was competitive. Expect the McCain campaign to continue making a similar case in the coming months.

Yet, it is most likely that Republicans will have no money to actually contest the state and actually move numbers. This is why McCain has to settle for the minimal strategy of convincing the press that California could swing and thus propagate a narrative that will (the GOP hopes) lead Democrats to panic and play defense. Indeed, Republicans are at a major financial disadvantage this year, and given Obama's financial advantage it would not be that much of an inconvenience for him to drop a few millions in the Golden State to make sure its 55 electoral votes are safely in his column.

In fact, Obama's financial advantage should allow Democrats to play the same trick on Republicans in McCain's must-win states. And since Obama will have plenty of money, he will be able to spend some of it in places like Texas and Arizona to test McCain's vulnerabilities (while the GOP can do little else than leak strategy briefings). If Democrats are successful in moving these races within single-digits, they would tie McCain down to playing defense in states he cannot afford to lose.

Read more at Daniel Nichanian's blog, Campaign Diaries.

Comments

[XME]

The biggest joke is that McCain thinks he might have ANY chance of winning California!

[CamJam]

In the article it states "Washington and Oregon, traditional swing states which McCain is said to want to compete but which Obama will have an easier time defending than Clinton would have."

Hate to date myself, but I've lived in Oregon dating back to the 60's. I'm a bit surprised to read that Oregon is considered a traditional swing state especially since Bush went into office.

But more surprising to see that McCain could win California?? Really? Nahhhh!

[bobpomeroy]

McCain's Magical Screen may be laughable, but I hope not so much that it lulls us all to sleep. He has the substantial credibility of being 1 of the 2 major candidates. Given the American tradition of voting against instead of voting for, we ought to be working very hard. We need a landslide, not only for Obama, but in both houses of Congress, to have a chance to clean up after W, the president who was AWOL from kindergarten and never learned "getting along" or "clean up after yourself", without being tarnished irreparably from the trash itself. Our recovery will be no picnic on Sunday afternoon, and simply prioritizing has the risk of becoming a quagmire without an organized super-majority.

[bobpomeroy]

I can hardly wait for Bill Richardson's reply to the notion that McCain is a "good fit" for the Southwest, so I will give mine.
Bullcrap.

[Myshkin57]

California? That's their plan? If it is, this will be a clean sweep for the Democrats.

[arglebargle]

The GOP is dreaming. Obama's up 10 points in Minnesota. Notta chance McCain turns this blue-leaning state red in a blue-leaning year.

[walk0nwalls]

California­... vote Republican­...

Pretty much only if they split the whole state in half would that be true.

[kellygrrrl]

even then it won't happen
Nor Cal and So Cal are all happily very much Pro 0bama

sure, there are a few little pockets here and there that are ReThug strangleholds, but they're minimal
and will be inconsequential in the GE

[lostonbridgetofuture]

The map is laughable.­.but the fact they think they can win CT is kind of telling, like Lieberman will be on the ticket.

[Cugel]

And since when has winning Ohio become "changing the map" for a Republican?

I just about fell out of my chair when I saw that one! Ohio voted for Bush twice and for Republicans in 8 of the last 12 elections since 1960. This year Ohio is a dead even swing state of course, but how would winning "change the map" for McCain?

Talk about confused thinking!

As for Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota, forget it! Republicans have lost Michigan the last 4 elections. As for Minnesota, they voted for every Democrat since 1972. That includes: Carter twice, Mondale, Dukakis, Clinton twice, Gore and Kerry. Ain't gonna happen for McSame this year.

Wisconsin too has voted for Kerry, Gore, Clinton and Clinton the last 4 elections.

But the real laugher is Connecticut, which also voted for Democrats the last 4 elections.

I'm surprised they didn't put Vermont on that map!

[closerthanuthink]

Funny you should call it a "...strate­gy of convincing the press"! Because if Wolf B's interview with Sen. Boxer a few hours ago is anything to go by, then the scenarios already been bought by the talking heads!! They are hooked, so be prepared for another season of the "map wall" or whatever that was!

[kellygrrrl]

I cannot even watch CNN anymore - they are so Foxian in nature at this point it is just laughable

[AnotherHuddy]

John King and his magical screen.
~s~

[gbht12]

What the heck are they smoking?

[Americanium]

For anyone to think that Lieberman has coattail effects in CT currently they must be smoking something wacko.
This PPT was done to for cheer leading only. McDinosaur thinks he can muddy the Obama campaign by planting stories.

It will not work. He better defend his home turf of AZ cause it is in the purple zone.

[CTmom13]

I don't think CT is in play for him...Funn­y he says because of Liebermann? Liebermann is not popular here anymore...­.CT is higher income (highest per capita in the country) and has one of the largest number of college grads, McCain will not win here

[kellygrrrl]

I was wondering about that.
I would be shocked if CT is sitting proud of LiberCon these days.

As for CA., I promise, if CA votes McLame, I will eat this laptop

[MiddleRoadLiberal]

I hope McCain sets his own trap in Michigan. Yes, there are tons of conservatives here, but not enough to turn us red. If the state didn't turn red in 2004, it won't this year. 2004 saw homophobic and anti-affirmative action proposals along with a very, very popular conservative candidate for governor. This year has none of that and with the bonus of the first black candidate from a major party. I wish you luck, Senator McCain, and please spend as much money as you can here.

[PioneerKing]

DANIEL:

The republicans have five cards to play: race, the phony charges of Obama being a muslim, the pathetic flag pin/patriotism, questioning Michelle Obama's patriotisim and Rev. Wright/Trinity Church.

Regrettably, bigotry and racisim abound, as a result the republicans will win.

[kellygrrrl]

you really think the majority in this nation are that racist?

that would shock me.

there is no way in he!! CA is going to vote for McLame.
this state will be a landslide, IMO.

[closetodemfection]

It's hard to imagine for those living in heavily Dem. urban/northern cal. cities but we have a popular Repub governor and there are vast amounts of conservatives in southern cal, especially in Orange County. San Diego and Bakersfield/Fresno areas are HEAVY republican.

Not to mention the latinos...

Even GWB got 44% in 2004...

[walk0nwalls]

Those are really weak cards when gas is supposed to hit 6 bucks a gallon come december.

[SolarPowerGuy]

Gas will be at $3/gallon in late October, right before Election Day -- courtesy of Saudi Arabia. They very much appreciate having American troops stationed in Iraq and will open the spigots to get McCain elected.

By December? Sure, $6/gallon.

[Yola]

ROFLMAO! The fact that he has strong association with Lieberman means he should count CT out. We are so sick of that man!