Obama Advancing On The Ground, Under Pollsters' Radar

It increasingly looks as though this close election may be determined by investments on the ground, in local precincts across the country, an area of the campaign that Barack Obama's organization and supporters have excelled at.

But this is not the type of edge pollsters pick up on, making any metrics concerning the ground game that much more valuable. Most of the data we have seen up to now has looked at shifts in voter’s party affiliations. That tells us how many more (or less) voters are registered as Democrats or Republicans, but not much about new voters, as much of these partisan shifts are due to already-registered voters changing their affiliation. These new voters are one of the key weapons of the Obama campaign, and one of the reasons he won the Democratic nomination (for instance, his influx of new voters overwhelmed Clinton and Edwards’s caucus organization on January 3rd).

Now, Time provides us this very useful table of voters who have newly registered from January to July 2008, and the numbers are very encouraging for the Obama campaign. More than 3 million voters registered in that period, and while a lot of them are not Democrats, Time’s table shows that these new voters are registering as Democrats at much higher than normal proportion; also, a disproportionate number of new registrants are under 35, Obama’s strongest demographic group.

The most impressive numbers come from Florida (441,225 new voters, 45% of which are Democrats and half of which are under 35), Michigan (where 63% of the 411,207 new voters are under 35), North Carolina (429,059 new voters, 49% of which are Democrats and 55% of which are under 35) and Pennsylvania (where an outstanding 67% of the 286,255 new voters are Democrats and 69% are under 35). Remarkable numbers as well out of Nevada (where 110,124 new voters is a lot considering the state’s size, especially as 53% of them are new voters) and Ohio (65% of the 255,587 new voters are under 35).

In some of these states, a lot of work was done during the primary season. In others, these gains are due to Obama’s general election effort. And Democrats should feel even better that these numbers only cover the period ending in July. The campaign is sure to continue voter registration until the deadlines start coming up in late September/early October. In other words, the final numbers are likely to be much higher than they are now.

Of course, registering new voters is only the first step -- getting them to the polls requires a whole other round of effort. As the New York Times reported today, this is where early voting comes in -- and we will have to keep track of any data from that department once the first states open their ballots at the end of this month.

One obstacle to all of this will come in the form of legal challenges. A month ago, the GOP signaled it was sending teams of lawyers to key battleground states to review voter registration applications and issue challenges. Now, Florida election authorities are saying they will start enforcing a voter ID law that was on hold pending legal review for the past year. This law (read the details here) could lead to a lot of new voters being forced to cast provisional ballots on Election Day; they would have two days to prove their identity. If the election comes down to a small margin in FL, expect a huge legal battle. (In other news from Florida, the Obama campaign seems to be aware of its relative weakness among the Jewish community and is organizing very extensive outreach among the community.)

Meanwhile, McCain supporters are also increasing their ground game. Today marked the NRA’s first move in the presidential race, and they made sure to make a splash by producing a brochure that warns that Obama would be “the most anti-gun president in American history.”



The brochure contains a lot of text and tells voters not to believe Barack Obama - contrasting what he says and what he does: “He has supported bans on handguns and semi-automatic firearms, and he has voted to ban possession of many shotguns and rifles commonly used by hunters and sportsmen across America. And we will remind voters every single time he lies.”

They will print 6 million brochures, and it will reach at least 4 million NRA member. Of course, this is not a surprise - the NRA targeted John Kerry four years ago - but it is a reminder that this is one more obstacle Obama has to overcome to address his weakness among culturally conservative white voters, whether Reagan Democrats or independents (remember that today’s CNN poll found Obama trailing by 18% in the Detroit suburbs).

Read more at Daniel Nichanian's blog, Campaign Diaries.

Comments

[Yohomegirl]

North Carolina needs you! Come to NC, we are registering a K a day, and more, across the state, but we need MORE! Come help NC go BLUE! Thanks in advance! Obama 08!

[freedog]

Except that McCain has a ground game too.

[Yohomegirl]

Yeah, it's called 'Change', as in change the subject every time talk of economy comes up!

[Yohomegirl]

McCain's 'game' is also called 'change' as in Change the subject off the economy!

[chf2go]

Why is it that the suppress the voting tactics that the Republicans favor seem to represent the worst in the 3rd world countries that try and fix elections? In this country, it's hard to believe that they have been allowed to get away with it? Where is the media on this? They should be monitoring all of the voting places and never allow this to happen again.

[chf2go]

Don't pollsters only poll land lines? What about the tens of millions of cell phones out there. Don't believe the polls, Obama is going to win.

[CassandraPriam]

It gets down to one basic question:

Does America have free elections?

I think not.
The repugs most likely will steal this election
just like they have in the past. Americans are fools,
Obama is a great leader like Lincoln or FDR.
And the US will have lost the best talent to come along in a very long time.

[whit4brains]

Does anyone know how many NRA members are Repugs? I would guess the number is really high and now with Sara h "shoot and kill" Pal in I am sure they are all supporting the G O P ticket.

[smurrayesq]

I'm a Democrat and a NRA member who would never vote for McCain. There are other more important things, and I don't tow the NRA line. However, Obama was going to be targeted by the NRA, no matter who was on the Republican ticket. Most of the members would not vote for Obama if he were handing out guns to every citizen. They simply never support Democrats.

[KIMBER]

I know several red-state NRA members. They own guns, they hunt (not from helicopters), and they are committed progressive Democrats. They consider their membership in the NRA to be very important because of the overwhelming right wing dominance in the organization. Such people do indeed exist.

[rayofhope]

It is truely unfortunate that the individual that talks about how much he loves his country and how everyone should respect him because of his record blah blah blah. This man and the RNC have started their caging process clear across the US. I find it reprehensible that they are already sending lawyers across the country to challenge this process. There has been wide spread fraud used in Ohio and Colorado with the RNC sendind out bogus absentee ballots and trying to blame it on the Dems creating lists so that individuals who lost their homes to foreclosure can't vote in Mich and God only knows what else they are doing. It is up to WE THE PEOPLE to be vigilant during this election and call the republicans on everything they do. Get it to the media make calls to the newspapers and report everything. I call what MCbush is doing un American un Patriot and one that is not worthy to be president of these united states. Hypocrits of the highest order. I thought this was a democracy.

[Pete Ross]

One other factor to consider - polls are taken using regular phone lines.
Many people, especially younger voters who are likely to be new, Democratic voters are no longer using regular phones - they are using cellphones and voip phone lines (Vonage, Skype, Cable Company, etc) and do not show up in the surveys. There was a significant increase in the numbers of younger voters in the Democratic primaries but not the Republican primaries.

If we will remember, polls towards the end of the primaries were inaccurate and the pundits were left confused as to why.
I think Obama may well have a very large lead which is not showing and may well not show at all until election day.

[noblereno]

What was that comment again - "they are clinging to their guns and religion". Pretty insightful comment and it is apparently true. Let the NRA make all the accusations they may - I want just one automatic weapons owner to explain to me why they need to hunt with a weapon that would blow the prey into miniscule pieces? Oh - yeh! I forgot - it is "SPORT"!!

[freedog]

As usual, the left doesn't know what they are talking about. Just because a weapon is "automatic" does not mean that it will blow anything to pieces. That's based on many other factors. I am a member of the NRA and a former Army Ranger and I AGREE WITH YOU. Automatic weapons, designed for military use, have no place in the civilian market and must be controlled. However, all other weapons must be allowed as per our constitutional rights. As for a ban on hand guns, honest, law abiding owners of guns are not the problem, more gun laws will not solve gun issues. Start ENFORCING our current gun laws and make sure the good guys have the right to carry concealed. More crimes in the US are stopped by Concealed Carry, law abiding citizens than police offices. Police only get there AFTER the crime is committed. These facts are all over the place and it's why the Dem's have given up on gun control.

[NEW-YORK-SID]

I HAVE NEVER BEEN POLLED


i have a thought about polling as well. what about the millions of folks that have lost there homes

with out a house and phone you cant be polled and i dont think tohe bulk of these folks are voting for the GOP.

[useyourbrain]

These polls are meaningless since they don't call cell phones and most young people, and many other people do not use landlines for their phone service. That means the demographics are not accurate.

Also, you have to give 15-30 minutes of your time to a pollster. I don't know if I would give out personal and political information to a stranger on the phone. They could be identity thieves or a government agency. Maybe you'd get put on a list for expressing a strong opinion. The problem is working people cannot take that kind of time to talk on the phone so it's likely that the polls are skewed towards the elderly.

There are a lot of new voters that are not being counted. Also, if there are poll takers outside where you vote make sure you tell them who you voted for. Exit polls are the most accurate polls and those exit polls in Ohio that showed Kerry winning were correct. It was the Diebold (Bush) touch screen and paperless electronic voting machines that were wrong. In one town they had all 6000 votes going to Bush. That was more people than lived in the town. Some technician came in and "fixed" the problem.

[QuicksilverKW]

A ban on hand guns? Great!! Too many people have guns and use them for crime - not for protection of their property or their right to kill and sadistically mutilate animals. Way toooo many guns out there where kids are killing kids. A ban on hand guns is a good thing.

[alkamm]

I don't have any myself, but I don't fear law abiding citizens with any guns. I think that if I lived in the country, I'd have guns for both protection and hunting, but for sadistically mutilating animals, I'd let butchers take care of that.
When the Korean store owners in L.A. positioned themselves with rifles against looters, they got to keep their stores' inventories and the livelihoods that would have slipped away from them.
Every time naive people on the left argue in favor of taking away guns from the American people, we lose votes. Americans know that one of the main reasons for owning guns is that criminals have them and would be emboldened by bans.
Drugs are also illegal, and despite all the laws we can make, they are more plentiful than ever.
A ban on hand guns is not a good thing because it runs counter to the constitutional rights citizens need to respect and protect.

[CognitoErgoSum]

Most criminals who use handguns in committing their crimes acquired them illegally, so they wouldn't be traceable back to them.

[jemjones]

Let's all get back to that place where we were a year ago when we first embraced Obama's message of hope and change. Let's remember that we felt that our country had been hijacked by the right-wingers in the Bush administration and we believed we needed not just policy change, but fundamental change in how government works -- openness, accountability, and honesty. Obama still offers that change.. To rekindle that spirit, watch this video from two years ago, "Runaway Train":
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjQ___hJgYY

[HHarvey]

I think it's great that all you ground operations volunteers are signing up new voters, it's wonderful! However, I am concerned what will happen afterwords when Nov. 7 comes and people are getting manipulated at the polling booth like they have in the past two elections. Will the ground forces be watching, will you be following up on everyone who signed up? It's great that we have an enormous amount of registered voters, but beware of Rove tactics because it's already happening.

[Fromageball]

I am worried about that as well.

[DoTheMath]

I think we should put some serious energy into making sure our votes are counted. A high-profile effort would, if nothing else, alert everyone - the media, the rovians, registrars, secretaries of state - that we mean business.

For a start, we could conduct a massive email, snail-mail, and call-in campaign to ask our secretaries of state what we can do about specific concerns we have regarding voting issues.

[Sparky123]

Yes. Very good point. We must remember 2000 and 2004. Vote counting was rigged and Bush won only because the interests that wanted him in office had control of the counting, i.e. voting machines and ballot problems in Florida. I am very concerned about this too.

[pauldog]

Nothing, a void, empty air ...not even the most advanced radar system will work in that
atmosphere...there's nothing in the Obama campaign to detect...

[WFV]

We are working hard here in Pennsylvania to register new voters and I can assure you, the numbers in September are huge where I live. And almost all are Dems. We have until October 6th, so the work continues....stay tuned.