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Polls: Obama Leads In Key Battleground States
Yesterday's poll results all centered on crucial battleground states:
- In Colorado (polling history), PPP finds Obama holding on to his lead from July, 48% to 44%.
- In Virginia (polling history), SUSA has the two candidates locked in a toss-up, with McCain at 48% compared to Obama’s 47%. McCain leads among whites by 19% - which means Obama is improving on Kerry’s showing by 5%.
- In Iowa, Obama is narrowly ahead in Rasmussen’s latest poll, 46% to 41% (49% to 44% with leaners). Last month, Obama was ahead by 9%.
- In Oregon (polling history), Obama holds on to a solid lead in Rasmussen, 47% to 37% (52% to 42% with leaners). He led by 9% last month.
- A national poll released by YouPoll/The Economist has Obama leading 42% to 39% - the same margin he led by in July.
The four polls confirm what we have known from some time (apart from Ohio and Florida polls, surveys have been quite consistent over the past few months!). Obama seems to be safer than past Democratic nominees in Oregon -- but also in Iowa: The only poll in which McCain ever led Obama in this 2004 Bush state was a survey released in… January 2007, and even then the Republican was only ahead by 1%. While this latest poll has a slightly tightening margin, Obama’s superior ground game in Iowa (inherited from the caucuses) should boost his total by several points.
Until July 24th, Colorado shared Iowa’s distinction as a red state in which McCain had never led. But Obama’s narrow lead in this state has been consistent, with the Democrat holding an advantage hovering around the margin of error. PPP’s latest poll is just further confirmation of that trend. But consider how close Obama would get with just IA and CO -- just one electoral vote away from a tie, making every other state must-wins for the McCain campaign, especially large ones like Virginia, which seems to have become the ultimate battleground of 2008. Consider that there hasn’t been a single Virginia poll with either candidate leading by more than 2% since Obama wrapped up the nomination.
Meanwhile, we got three important down-the-ballot polls:
- In the Oregon Senate race (polling history), the July Rasmussen poll was the first (and so far only) poll to find Merkley ahead. This month, Rasmussen finds Smith with the lead, 47% to 39%. With leaners, the margin is 50% to 44%. Merkley’s weak point is the Democratic vote, as he only gets 69% of the vote.
- In the Colorado Senate race (polling history), it is PPP’s turn to find a slightly tightening race, with Rep. Udall leading former Rep. Schaffer 47% to 41% - down from a 9% lead last month.
- In Missouri, meanwhile, Rasmussen released its first poll since Kenny Hulshof won the Republican primary: There is no primary bounce for the GOP congressman, who trails Attorney General Jay Nixon 51% to 39% - up one point since the July poll.
- In Virginia, no surprises in the Senate race as Mark Warner is marching towards a sure pick-up, leading 58% to 34% against Jim Gilmore in SUSA’s poll.
- Rasmussen also released two less important Senate polls, finding Democratic Sens Harkin and Levin comfortably beating their Republican challengers in Iowa and Michigan.
PPP is the third institute in a row to find Udall losing ground in the Colorado Senate race (after Rasmussen and Quinnipiac) but the election leans towards the Democrat. In fact, the contest has been tight for much of the past year, with Udall opening a slight lead only late this spring. Given that this is an open seat in a swing state in a Democratic year, Udall was expected to have a more comfortable lead - but his advantage is at least consistent.
In Oregon, Gordon Smith has been running an aggressive ad campaign seeking to highlight his moderate credentials and win the support of Democrats and independents. This is the second poll in a row (after SUSA’s poll last week) to find Merkley’s numbers low among Democrats and suggesting Smith’s strategy is working. Merkley has been unable to respond as much as he should as his financial situation is weak (though the DSCC is getting involved). Note, however, that we should not take Rasmussen’s poll as a sign of a bounce in Merkley’s direction as that July poll was somewhat of an outlier.
Beyond the stakes of controlling Missouri’s gubernatorial mansion (which will also matter at the federal level, since Missouri is projected to lose a House seat in the 2010 census and the Governor will have a say in the redistricting process), I believe the state of the Nixon-Hulshof race will also tell us a lot about the presidential election. This is an open seat with two solid candidates. And while it is true that Nixon started campaigning years ago, that alone does not explain the large lead he has opened against Hulshof. That a Democratic non-incumbent is leading by double-digit in this red-leaning state confirms how dismal the environment is for the state GOP and that is sure to have an impact on the Obama-McCain contest.
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I do not trust Rasmussen, they have a Repub slant. According to Chuck Todd, Obama has a double digit lead in IA, WI, and has already won them.
I say dump all the parties, keep Ron Paul & Dennis Kucinich, & a few that are tried and true, & create a whole new government of people from oue communities who are for the people, by the people & of the people. Get a receipt everytime you vote you can keep. Give them the same hours we have to work, a decent salary. and do'nt make money an issue to campaign. Put a cap n it, allow the same amount of commercials in the same places, and let Americans choose a whole new government of real , educated, & intelligent people.Make each candidate take a lie detector test before they can even run. I want REAL CHANGE!!
If only!
I like your ideas, why don't you run for something?
The L word.
The L word.
Land....! ;)
If the negative ads were working, Mcsame should be up by quite a bit by now. He's wasting his $$$. $50 mil in debt is the goal!
I can almost guarantee that Barack Obama would win the approaching election if he would do one single thing, and that is to run negative ads with John McCain being the focus, but with George Bush's face imaged on the body. Most of us already believe McCain is running for Bush's third term. It is high time for Obama to make his run in a serious way. It is getting late and Obama needs to repay McCain for all the negative ads he has sent over the television sets of the world.
leave that to the 527s, and after the convention
New Alaska poll: Obama +5 http://www.haysresearch.com/080708.htm
Obama is leading: http://www.pollster.com and http://fivethirtyeight.com
I'd like to know too, "intelliwoman" (a.k.a. Karl Rove?!) why in heck you'd be having nausea from voting for Obama. As a woman, maybe you need to know the background on McCain. McCain's first wife spent years trying to get him out of POW camp and home, while she was home with five kids. She nearly dies and a car crash just before he's finally home & he rewards her by having an affair with a 25-year-old woman who he lied to about his age. Then he divorces said wife and marries his beer heiress current wife. As a woman, if that background does not make you nauseous, I wonder about what exactly you want in a candidate.
To those comparing this to McGovern and Mondale's run for office, please look at the historical context too. Reagan was popular at the time (not that I've ever figured that one out) as was Nixon. Watergate had happened & was in the news at the time, but I voted for McGovern & knew he hadn't a snowball's chance in hell, nor did Mondale. I heard no woman mention she was impressed with Ferraro. Bush is not Nixon or Reagan and this year's election, when you get down to it is still very much about George W. Bush. Where is the outrage over the forged letter, linked to Cheney, that tried to suggest a Saddam Hussein - 9/11 perpetrator connection?! The Democrats would have been tarred with that one....
Polls, polls, polls. Let's vote and get thing over.
Dems unite and this election is over. Don't be stupid. It's in your best interest to vote Obama.
This is quite exciting to see. Wonder why CNN still has Colorado leaning McCain on its electoral map?
I'd love to see a large majority in the House & Senate as well. Finally, we'll be able to get some things accomplished.
CNN's map is awful. I looked at it yesterday. All of the states do not have results, and some of the states that were leaning obama/mccain were not listed.
Daniel,
Inch-bes-es
Great post!
The polls are encouraging but the race is far from over. I think the Democrats will get a big bounce from their convention, the Republicans not so much. By mid-September the Democrats will have a comfortable lead, but that's about the time the Republican smear campaigners will get to work. They will do a lot of damage and the race will tighten. Still, I can't believe a majority of voters would fail to grasp how disasterously the GOP has governed and return them to power. Change is coming!
I don't know where you folks poll.
I live in PA, am a lifelong democrat, am not and never have been an Obama fan, and have watched all my friends who were Obama supporters be so disappointed that they now say they won't vote. I will suck it up and endure the nausea to pull his lever, but only because of the Supreme Court.
All the polls I see show that he has THE SAME TINY EDGE he had months ago. with the state of the economy he should be roaring ahead in the polls, but he's not. He's losing steam, he's taking scrutiny now that he should have had months ago, but the media gave him a pass.
WHY ISN'T HE DOING BETTER? here in PA, I think he may lose. I have friends in VA who say the same thing. If they are counting on the college kids, they shouldn't. I watched them leave in droves on primary day when they realized they had to wait in line more than a few minutes. More left when they were asked to leave their beer in the car and not bring it to the polling place.
They need to start polling in different places, and they need to start asking different questions. Do you intend to vote? How many times have you actually voted in the last several elections?
You ask: "WHY ISN'T HE DOING BETTER? "
Answer: Racism and fear
You state: "I watched them [college students] leave in droves on primary day when they realized they had to wait in line more than a few minutes.
Counterpoint: My college aged daughter spent a whole evening in Colo caucusing even though she had a test the next day. Why???? Because this is incredibly important and the college aged (and educated) know that this election will have a huge impact on their life. And unlike their parents, many many fewer are racists.
The polls are the most revealing items of campaign news. Therefore, intelliwoman is entirely correct: They have to be questioned and we should struggle to understand them.
When Nixon crushed McGovern oh so many years ago, one of the New York literati said how she couldn't believe Nixon had won. Nobody who she knew had voted for him. Similarly, as Mondale cruised to his defeat, his staff kept the polling numbers from him, and he is said to have believed the huge crowds he drew indicated he was winning.
The race will get down and dirty; to reject Obama will seem more credible. The fact remains however that McCain is a very conservative Republican who would keep effective elements of the Bush administration in power despite their sorry economic and civil rights record. Obama is the elitist of the best kind, a person who works for his accomplishments and earns the faith of those who observe him most closely. A person can do no more.
Voting Obama will induce nausea for you?
What maladay will voting McCain bring about?
Please.
Why isn't he doing better? The question, "intelliwoman," is not why isn't he doing better, it's WHY ARE YOU NOT DOING MORE to insure a Democratic win this fall? I never thought much of Sen. Clinton's campaign, or for that matter, any of the other Dems who ran this year, although she would was my second choice. But had any of the others won the nomination, I would be doing as much for their candidacy as I am doing for Obama.
We cannot afford more Republican destruction of our courts, our constitution, our middle class or our foreign policy. That's the bottom line. It's not about yours or my personal choice out of two pretty darned good Democratic candidates - it's about what's better for the country and Obama is going to be better for the country over John McCain, period.
Obama never claimed to be the answer to this country's woes. I fear you are falling victim to Mark Penn/Karl Rove's framing of him as the celebrity-Moses-messiah. It's not the case at all. In fact Obama has consistently said the opposite - his candidacy and history are all about empowering citizens to exercise their voice and vote, and returning democracy to the people who are governed by it.
So gulp a little Pepto Bismol, get your shoes on, and start knocking on doors like the rest of us. We need you. It's time to get the job done and send these lunatics back into the woodwork.
Actually college students got turned away in NC, bc they were told they had to have two forms of ID, never were told that before. Most had their drivers liscense and their college ID, but that wasnt good enough. In Indiana many got turned away bc there was not enough ballots, some voting places said that in the college towns the kids came out in droves and they didnt have enough ballots so they turned them away.
I am 26 now, but I did vote 4 years ago. I waited in line, just like I will wait this time. You try to act like these college kids are immature with no patience. Let me remind you that these are the same ages of most of our soldiers. You bash the young voters in this country bc they are smart and bright enough to look at the issues. They do want change. The war actually effects them, they have friends they went to school with in the war. They like me see the debt that we will have to pay back, probally along with our kids.
Hillary campaign laughed when they found out that O went after the youth vote, bc after all they dont usually show, except this time they did. They actually had kids going to the dorms and knocking on the doors reminding everyone to vote.
Like I said you are full of it. Dont post lies.
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Posted August 12, 2008 | 08:40 AM (EST)