Yesterday's poll results all centered on crucial battleground states:
The four polls confirm what we have known from some time (apart from Ohio and Florida polls, surveys have been quite consistent over the past few months!). Obama seems to be safer than past Democratic nominees in Oregon -- but also in Iowa: The only poll in which McCain ever led Obama in this 2004 Bush state was a survey released in… January 2007, and even then the Republican was only ahead by 1%. While this latest poll has a slightly tightening margin, Obama’s superior ground game in Iowa (inherited from the caucuses) should boost his total by several points.
Until July 24th, Colorado shared Iowa’s distinction as a red state in which McCain had never led. But Obama’s narrow lead in this state has been consistent, with the Democrat holding an advantage hovering around the margin of error. PPP’s latest poll is just further confirmation of that trend. But consider how close Obama would get with just IA and CO -- just one electoral vote away from a tie, making every other state must-wins for the McCain campaign, especially large ones like Virginia, which seems to have become the ultimate battleground of 2008. Consider that there hasn’t been a single Virginia poll with either candidate leading by more than 2% since Obama wrapped up the nomination.
Meanwhile, we got three important down-the-ballot polls:
PPP is the third institute in a row to find Udall losing ground in the Colorado Senate race (after Rasmussen and Quinnipiac) but the election leans towards the Democrat. In fact, the contest has been tight for much of the past year, with Udall opening a slight lead only late this spring. Given that this is an open seat in a swing state in a Democratic year, Udall was expected to have a more comfortable lead - but his advantage is at least consistent.
In Oregon, Gordon Smith has been running an aggressive ad campaign seeking to highlight his moderate credentials and win the support of Democrats and independents. This is the second poll in a row (after SUSA’s poll last week) to find Merkley’s numbers low among Democrats and suggesting Smith’s strategy is working. Merkley has been unable to respond as much as he should as his financial situation is weak (though the DSCC is getting involved). Note, however, that we should not take Rasmussen’s poll as a sign of a bounce in Merkley’s direction as that July poll was somewhat of an outlier.
Beyond the stakes of controlling Missouri’s gubernatorial mansion (which will also matter at the federal level, since Missouri is projected to lose a House seat in the 2010 census and the Governor will have a say in the redistricting process), I believe the state of the Nixon-Hulshof race will also tell us a lot about the presidential election. This is an open seat with two solid candidates. And while it is true that Nixon started campaigning years ago, that alone does not explain the large lead he has opened against Hulshof. That a Democratic non-incumbent is leading by double-digit in this red-leaning state confirms how dismal the environment is for the state GOP and that is sure to have an impact on the Obama-McCain contest.
I like your ideas, why don't you run for something?
The L word.
Land....! ;)
Obama is leading: http://www.pollster.com and http://fivethirtyeight.com
To those comparing this to McGovern and Mondale's run for office, please look at the historical context too. Reagan was popular at the time (not that I've ever figured that one out) as was Nixon. Watergate had happened & was in the news at the time, but I voted for McGovern & knew he hadn't a snowball's chance in hell, nor did Mondale. I heard no woman mention she was impressed with Ferraro. Bush is not Nixon or Reagan and this year's election, when you get down to it is still very much about George W. Bush. Where is the outrage over the forged letter, linked to Cheney, that tried to suggest a Saddam Hussein - 9/11 perpetrator connection?! The Democrats would have been tarred with that one....
I'd love to see a large majority in the House & Senate as well. Finally, we'll be able to get some things accomplished.
Inch-bes-es
Great post!
I live in PA, am a lifelong democrat, am not and never have been an Obama fan, and have watched all my friends who were Obama supporters be so disappointed that they now say they won't vote. I will suck it up and endure the nausea to pull his lever, but only because of the Supreme Court.
All the polls I see show that he has THE SAME TINY EDGE he had months ago. with the state of the economy he should be roaring ahead in the polls, but he's not. He's losing steam, he's taking scrutiny now that he should have had months ago, but the media gave him a pass.
WHY ISN'T HE DOING BETTER? here in PA, I think he may lose. I have friends in VA who say the same thing. If they are counting on the college kids, they shouldn't. I watched them leave in droves on primary day when they realized they had to wait in line more than a few minutes. More left when they were asked to leave their beer in the car and not bring it to the polling place.
They need to start polling in different places, and they need to start asking different questions. Do you intend to vote? How many times have you actually voted in the last several elections?
Answer: Racism and fear
You state: "I watched them [college students] leave in droves on primary day when they realized they had to wait in line more than a few minutes.
Counterpoint: My college aged daughter spent a whole evening in Colo caucusing even though she had a test the next day. Why???? Because this is incredibly important and the college aged (and educated) know that this election will have a huge impact on their life. And unlike their parents, many many fewer are racists.
When Nixon crushed McGovern oh so many years ago, one of the New York literati said how she couldn't believe Nixon had won. Nobody who she knew had voted for him. Similarly, as Mondale cruised to his defeat, his staff kept the polling numbers from him, and he is said to have believed the huge crowds he drew indicated he was winning.
The race will get down and dirty; to reject Obama will seem more credible. The fact remains however that McCain is a very conservative Republican who would keep effective elements of the Bush administration in power despite their sorry economic and civil rights record. Obama is the elitist of the best kind, a person who works for his accomplishments and earns the faith of those who observe him most closely. A person can do no more.