Polls: Obama Pre-Convention Numbers Rise In Key Swing States

Pollsters have been productive in the week before the Democratic Convention. In the last 24 hours, they put out eight surveys from states that are rated toss-ups or lean, including polls from three of the big four (MI, FL, and PA). And after a week of worrisome results for Democrats, today’s survey should reassure them. Obama takes a solid lead in Minnesota for the first time in four polls, leads outside of the margin of error in Michigan and Pennsylvania as well as in Bush-state New Mexico, and he is within 2% in red Florida, North Carolina, Nevada.

McCain receives good news as well, however, as he looks to be in the running in Pennsylvania, fully closes the gap in New Hampshire in two separate polls and jumps 13% in Minnesota if Tim Pawlenty is included as his VP. Here is the full roundup:

• In Florida (polling history) it’s a one point race as McCain stays stable at 47% and Obama rises by 1% at 46% in ARG’s latest poll. Obama’s share of the Democratic vote is slightly lower than McCain’s share of the GOP vote, but Democrats make up a bigger proportion of the sample. And take a look at this: “45% of likely voters say they would never vote for John McCain in the general election, up from 32% in July, and 33% of likely voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the general election, down from 39% in July.”

• In Pennsylvania (polling history), Obama leads 45% to 40% in a new Rasmussen poll (48% to 45% with leaners). That’s a slight tightening over the past month.

• In Michigan (polling history), a new Detroit Free Press poll conducted by Ann Selzer brings good news to the Illinois Senator, who leads 46% to 39%. Obama leads 2-1 among first time voters.

• Insider Advantage’s first poll of North Carolina (polling history) has a tight race well within the margin of error, with McCain leading 45% to 43%.

• In the race for New Mexico’s five electoral votes, Obama maintains his lead in Rasmussen’s latest poll, 47% to 41%. The margin is 48% to 44% when leaners are factored in. Obama

• In New Hampshire, Rasmussen finds that Obama has lost the large lead he once enjoyed. Up 11% in June and 6% in July, Obama now gets 43% to McCain’s 42%. The margin stays the same with leaners, 47% to 46%. McCain has solidified the Republican base.
• Another poll from the state, released by ARG, finds Obama ahead 46% to 45%. He led by 2% last month.

• In Minnesota (polling history), a Minnesota Public Radio has Obama’s first double-digit lead in the state in a while, up 48% to 38%. Nader gets 3%. But when Pawlenty is included as McCain’s running-mate, the GOP ticket jumps 13%!

• In Nevada, a Research 2000 poll shows a one point race, with Obama getting 44% and McCain 43%.

• In Maryland, finally, Obama is up 53% to 41% (53% to 43% with leaners) in a Rasmussen poll.

• In Kansas, it’s McCain on top by a large margin in SUSA, 58% to 35%. No surprises here.

None of these results are surprising, though it is so rare to see numbers from New Mexico or Nevada that any poll release from those states is an event. Obama looks to be building a consistent lead in NM in particular, but it is difficult to draw any conclusions given that there have only been 4 polls released in more than two months - three of which have come from Rasmussen. (Needless to say, Obama would be very close to the prize if he were to start with New Mexico and Iowa leaning in his direction.)

Obama supporters will be happy to see that these polls do not find McCain gaining in states like Florida, North Carolina and Minnesota - states in which other August surveys found McCain improving his position. And the Michigan survey has to be particularly heartwarming for Democrats, as Ann Selzer is a very reputable pollster (albeit one that is based in Iowa) and Michigan looks to be one of the most dangerous states for Obama. As I said above, however, the NH surveys are great news for McCain, as they mostly erase the notion that Obama has an advantage in the Granite State (though David Broder has concluded that the state leans Obama). McCain could gain some valuable breathing room if he were to capture those 4 electoral votes.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

• In New Hampshire’s Senate race, Jeanne Shaheen maintains a double-digit lead in ARG, 52% to 41%. That includes a 61% to 33% lead among independents. In July, Shaheen led by 22% - but that had always been somewhat of an outlier.

• In the New Mexico Senate race, today’s Rasmussen poll is the first sign that Tom Udall might not be as safe a bet as we thought, as he loses significant amount of ground. He still leads 51% to 41%, however (52% to 44% with leaners).

• In the North Carolina gubernatorial race, the Civitas institute finds a close race, with Perdue leading 43% to 41%. She was up by 3% last month.

• In the NH’s gubernatorial race, no surprises as Gov. Lynch crushes his minor Republican opposition.

• In MO-09, an internal poll for the campaign of Judy Baker finds the Democrat narrowly ahead of Blaine Luetkemeyer, 41% to 39%. However, Republicans are much more undecideds than Democrats.

• And in the Kansas Senate race, Senator Roberts crushes his opponent Jim Slattery despite talk by some Democrats that this is a winnable race. Roberts leads 58% to 31%.

Some interesting numbers here as well, and ARG’s poll is the second in as many days to find Shaheen with a double-digit lead. For an incumbent to enter the fall trailing is always a bad sign, but to have been stuck in the low 40s since the first polls of the cycle is devastating. At least, Sununu has a big enough warchest that he will be able to deal some harsh blows and perhaps tighten the race, but Shaheen retains a clear advantage. As for the New Mexico race, Pearce and Udall have exchanged ads lately, and the Club for Growth has gotten involved on the Republican’s behalf. Yet, no other poll has shown any sign that the race is anything but a blowout for Udall, so we will have to wait and see what other surveys have to say about this.

As for MO-09, this is the first poll to be released from this race. It is great news for Judy Baker that she is this competitive in a conservative district, as her primary opponent’s supporters said that she was too liberal to fit the district. There are two ways to read the results, however. On the one hand, Luetkemeyer has much more of a reserve and could progress as the primary wounds heal; on the other, this reveals a deep malaise with the GOP in Missouri (one that cost Jim Talent his Senate seat in 2006 and that is putting Jay Nixon ahead of his gubernatorial race right now) and that will boost Baker.

Read more at Daniel Nichanian's blog, Campaign Diaries.

Comments

[illinoisan]

If you want to win a national election, you've got to understand America's national groupthink. A better example could not be found than the march to war in Iraq in 2002.

The key is to win the daily news cycle consistently. Once the MSM consensus picks a winner, the voters follow the narrative like lemmings. States like Iowa and New Hampshire often buck the groupthink in the primary season but important GE swing states always jump on the bandwagon.

[Bobrobert]

The times they are a changing.

[NurseyPaola]

Yep, I just got my Obama VP text message!

Obama/Biden 08!!!

[schicklett3]

Everybody get ready for the 3am text message!!!!!

[allonfla]

3am lol

[ladeyday]

I wish NM would stop bing considered a "Bush state". A Republican won here in 2004 by only 1%. In 1992, 1996, 2000 we went Democratic.. We have a Democrat for Governor, a Senator, & probably a 2nd Senator in November. New Mexico is THE maverick state because we are blue surrounded by a sea of red.

[jmbflame21]

drudge is reporting that signs are being printed saying OBAMA/BAYH­!!!!!!!!!!

Fri Aug 22 2008 17:52:03 ET /// KMBC's Micheal Mahoney reports a company in Kansas City, which specializes in political literature, has been printing Obama-Bayh material... MORE... Gill Studios, would not confirm information about the material. They would not deny it either. At least three sources close to the plant's operations reported the Obama-Bayh material was being produced...
SOURCE: DRUDGEREPORT.COM

[allonfla]

I saw a picture of that sign - it does not have the Obama logo on it.

[diogeron]

Leave it to Drudge to get it wrong.

[Head-Liner]

Why haven't i received a call to take a poll??? The only Polls I will trust the most is the ones conducted on Nov. 4 when we make history by electing OBAMA/CLARK into the White House!!!!!!!

[SaltySaltillo]

Mac Daddy has opened a 25 point lead in Tennessee... so that explains why in national polls he "appears" to be closing. He's just deepening his support among his base in states Obama has already lost. Fine by me. Let him have a 50 point lead in TN. People of CO and VA and OH... WAKE UP and do this country right please!

[greeniefromOH]

I'm in Ohio (obviously) and I WISH TO GOD my fellow Ohioans would do as you suggest and wake up! I cannot believe it! The economy here is terrible -- we've had record flooding every year for the past 2 or 3 years -- and we've lost many troops in Iraq (and civilians). Economy, climate change, Iraq -- McCain has nothing to offer on these issues. I cannot imagine what folks are thinking. Just inconceivable.

[ChristianEcon.com]

"I cannot imagine what folks are thinking."

They're not, apparently. Ohio needs to wake up and do the sane thing for America this time.

[BoVandy]

A suggestion for the Author. Not everyone here has memorized every congressional, senate and gubernatorial race in the country. How about making sure you clue us in to each state, and/or party when you mention a race?

[heal57]

My thoughts exactly. It's very confusing.

[S1m0n]

I'll third the motion.

[foxbat]

For those who follow the Congressional and Senate races, http://www.electoral-vote.com/ is a pretty good site. It gives a daily rundown of new polls in races and gives a nice digest version of the past 24-hours and what might be hot today. Also gives a "Chuck Todd" kind of analysis of what the numbers are saying or not saying. Does a decent job of smoothing and also culls out partisan polling. Take about a cup of coffee's worth of time in the morning to "drink it all in."

For those who are real number junkies, fivethirtyeight.com can satisfy the itch.

I'm glad that the author did take the time to include the down-ticket races because it helps to underscore why Obama's campaigning in places where he himself may still lose. In some cases, the local Democat might be close and Obama could provide enough extra enthusiasm to tip the scales and help the party.

[AtticusinPa]

Nice to see such poll numbers before the convention.

[mergina]

THAT IS BULL. They are just trying to gloss over the continuing slump that is inevitable after he chooses one of these lame brain v.p. picks.

[Fabienne]

Because you know the truth?

[heal57]

The only BULL here is that Obama isn't leading by 20 points. It's hard to believe that so many Americans will vote for McCant, even though he can't' win. The dumbing of America is totally unbelievable.

Independent for Obama Whoever '08

[ChristianEcon.com]

"The dumbing of America is totally unbelievable."

Couldn't agree more. Masochistic.

[roshni]

Don't ya wish!

[SaltySaltillo]

There is no slump - McCain is just deepening his support in places like KY and TN...

[AshevilleVoice]

The problem with polls is that the data is going to differ according to how the poll is conducted. During the primaries, we in Asheville, NC were getting poll calls daily. They were made by a real person and asked how many household members of voting age intended to vote Obama. That answer for us is 3- 2 parents, college age son. Student households are often comprised of up to 6 voting residents.

I'm now getting bi weekly polls that are automated. It's easy to press a wrong number, no way to backtrack and correct, and no questions about other household members. So the data from our household will reflect 1 intended vote for Obama rather than 3. That's if I pressed the right keypad button while making dinner.

[BeeOplentee]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Did you observe today's AOL straw poll? Taken by ordinary American folks, not policy wonks or geeks? Obama is in the hole, big time. Check it out and report back, please.

[allonfla]

taken by the same ordinary American folks whenever they check their e-mails? maybe? Hmmm? I'm sure McCain and Obama are use the AOL straw poll to refine their strategery - NOT! But after yesterday butt smacking from Obama - you would need some comfort.

[nomobull]

oh please

[Fabienne]

Yeah, right, an online poll beats them all for accuracy.

[heal57]

MSM [includes AOL] has an agenda to push the Republican candidate. Obama can't be stopped no matter what they say the polling is, or whatever bad publicity they can come up with.
This train is coming through!


Independent for Obama/Whoever '08

[Passenger57]

...And McCain is on the tracks,looking down at his $500 shoes,trying to remember how many houses he has...

[patwal]

Tell me you didn't really post that? An AOL online poll!! In the words of John McEnroe: "You cannot be serious!" lmfao

[happyboy]

The importance of the Democratic Convention cannot be stressed enough at this pivotal moment in the election cycle. The Democrats have a chance to show unity behind Mr. Obama. There will be some hard feelings to sooth with former Clinton supporters, but Mr. Obama will reach out to them once again. Will he placate them all? Hardly. The Democratic party is in a transitional phase and can complete the transition peacefully, one could hope. Mr. Clinton ran a tough, valiant campaign and deserves recognition for that, as well as some platform concessions, but Mr. Obama won the close primary fair and square. His organization was far superior and he represents people hungry for real change from business as usual, in the political sense. These results show his organization hard at work, trying to gain former red states. Mr. Obama has been underestimated from the beginning of the election cycle. Republicans cannot rest at all in states they once considered sure things. Non-Maverick, John McCain, is not 2000's John McCain. He has become a poser. His compromises of principle, in order to win the Republican nomination, are obvious and his adhereance to Bush doctrine is damning.