Polls: Obama Wins Post-Convention Bounce

Are Democrats even daring to hope for a post-convention bounce? John Kerry got none whatsoever in 2004, and Barack Obama’s post-June 3rd and post-European trip upticks were short-lived. And on Friday, John McCain’s vice-presidential announcement just hours after Barack Obama delivered his acceptance speech looked like it could be enough for the GOP to steal back the spotlight and blunt whatever bounce Obama was hoping to have.

But it looks like Democrats are finally getting their wish and Obama is opening some distance between the Arizona Senator and himself. Over the long week-end, four major national polls were released, accompanied by our two tracking polls (note that all these surveys were also completed post-Palin and over the week-end, not the best time to get a poll in the field):

• For CNN, the race was tied at 47% last week. Now, Obama gets 48% to McCain’s 47%. In a four-way race, Obama leads by 2%.

• For CBS News, the margin was 5% last week. Now, Obama-Biden leads McCain-Palin by a comfortable 48% to 40%.

• For USA Today/Gallup poll, Obama had a 4% lead last week. This week-end, Obama leads 50% to 43%.

• A Hotline poll released today has Obama up 48% to 39%. He led by 4% in a poll released before the convention.

• Gallup’s tracking poll found a clearer trend, as Obama gained 10% in four days to take an eight point lead. The margin then decreased a bit to stabilize at 6% over the past two days, with a 49% to 43% lead for Obama in the latest release.

• In Rasmussen’s tracking, Obama got a decent bounce and reached his highest level of support ever in today’s release. He leads 48% to 43%, and 51% to 45% when leaners are included!

All six of these polls find some gain for Obama, ranging from 1% for CNN to 5% for CBS and Hotline and 6% for the Gallup tracking poll. While such a margin is in line with the historical average of post-convention bounces, some Democrats might find it a bit small, especially compared to the golden standard the media always invokes - Bill Clinton’s 16% bounce in 1992. It is even small compared to the one Al Gore experienced in 2000. But the circumstances are very different:

1. A 4-6% bounce would be very impressive for a candidate like Obama who already had a slight advantage in the polls, as that obviously limits how high he can still rise. Al Gore was trailing massively before his convention in 2000 and Bill Clinton benefited from Ross Perot’s exit in 1996. Now, Obama is finding himself up in the high single-digits in most of these polls. That’s a good place to be.
2. Past convention bounces were measured more “purely,” namely at the end of a week that was entirely devoted to a party’s nominee. But these past few polls also include McCain’s naming Palin on Friday. In fact, that has already allowed McCain to already get part of his own convention bounce; the main objective of a convention is to solidify the base and energize your party, and McCain’s pick already did some of that.

It is the internal numbers of these polls that are particularly encouraging for Democrats. If Obama had just changed the head to head numbers, the millions spent last week might not have been worth it. But it looks like he managed to improve the electorate’s perception of the candidate and of the Democratic Party.

First, Obama looks to have made progress towards uniting his party, and mobilized registered Democrats with his convention - though McCain did the same thing with his own base with the Palin pick. In the past few days, Rasmussen has found that both candidates have improved their ratings among their own base. CBS has McCain getting 81% of the Republican vote and Obama getting 82% of the Democratic vote (McCain’s support among the GOP is usually higher).

However (and this is a crucial measure), Obama only gets 58% of Clinton supporters in the poll, versus 22% for McCain. That remains too low a figure for Democrats to be happy about and it is a frustrating lack of progress after a week aimed at getting them back in the Democratic tent.

A crucial constituency that Obama looks to have made progress in is the female vote. Giving such a role to Hillary Clinton at the convention and hitting McCain on abortion and equal pay was meant to solidify the support of women, and that appears to have worked. McCain’s choice of Palin is not helping among women (for now) but among conservative men.

Looking more closely at the impact of Palin, there is little evidence for now that voters outside of conservatives trust this pick. 52% of CNN’s respondents rate the choice as excellent or good, and 50% say she is not qualified to become president; 75% agree with the statement that McCain chose a woman to help himself get elected. In a head-to-head match-up against Biden, Palin would lose 54% to 41%.

Obama’s acceptance speech was a key moment. Gallup found that Obama’s speech got great reviews, with 58% viewing it as excellent or good - a record. The CNN poll finds the number to be 64%, and 51% of respondents say that the convention made them more likely to vote for the Illinois Senator (versus 32% who say they are less likely).

In particular, voters now feel better about Obama’s experience, substance and strength. In the CBS poll, 58% of voters (versus 29%) now say he is “tough enough.” Three weeks ago, the answer was 48-39. Last week, 49% said he had not prepared himself to be president; this week-end, 43%. And in what is a particularly dramatic swing, 50% now say Obama has made clear what he wants to do as president, versus 44% who say he has not (three weeks ago, it was 41-55). And in the USA Today/Gallup poll, Obama has an edge when voters are asked who is the strongest leader, 46% to 44%, compared to an 8% deficit last month.

In other words, the national polls are showing that Obama has improved his position in the head-to-head matchup, yes, but also in the perception voters have of his character, resolve and strength on national security. Those were of course all perceptions the convention was looking to improve. and now comes the abridged Republican convention. We will have to wait one more week to find out what impact St. Paul has on the electorate.

Read more at Daniel Nichanian's blog, Campaign Diaries.

Comments

[BeltwayBette]

Lincoln was right. We can only be destroyed from within. And Sen. Biden was right; this may be our last chance to save our amazing government.

As a former -- ande more naiive -- senior Bush campaigner , I am horrified by McCain's incredibly bad judgment .His silly choice of his self-reported "soul mate", Political Barbie, underlines McCain's obvious lack of concern for our nation's future AND SAFETY. Further, a VP candidate who cannot be questioned by the national press predicts a VERY SCARY ELECTION. .

As for Sen. Obama's experience, I strongly recommend David Mendell's book, "Obama, from Promise to Power" for meticulous research -- warts and all. Check out BO's legislative record, his bills -- those mandated into law and otherwise -- and do some careful comparisons. Ditto for Obama's and Palin's foreign affairs work. Ditto for their knowledge about economics. Ditto for their stances on social issues and education.

As for McCain using the POW argument to excuse this nomination and other blunders", take a look at the YouTube site: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_KjsEs46C70

I offer you this very interesting video of a POW who was in the same prison with Sen.McCain --Please pass this on to all media.
A military vet with two decorated war heroes in my family. I will never vore Republican again.

[Bama4obama]

I am very heartened by the polls but I also feel that so many voters don't get polled...but thats ok. I live with the deep south bible thumping born again evangelics....who are still bitter and clinging to their guns and religion. .I feel I am slowing getting to people and changing minds...one vote at a time. I really feel that is my task. Sarah Palin has made me determined to see that the Obama/Biden ticket will come through.

I also feel that there are many people that live in my area that will quietly vote for Obama/Biden...especially after I get working on them.

[AnotherToerag]

Nobody has come up with polls for any individual states in quite some time. I don't think a single state has been released since the DNC.
The national popular vote is irrelevant! I want to see the state-by-state polls and electoral college predictions!

Other than that, nice analysis with the numbers that you have to work with!

[MadeInAmerica]

Real Clear Politics has all the state polls and Obama is doing very well! Use the link below then click on the state by state links on the left sidebar.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

[MagisterLudi]

"We jail he petty thi-eves but appoint the great ones to public office."
Aesop.

[beanchihuahua]

I can't help but think McCain will not get much of a bump..

[grata2ude]

According to political pundits if a candidate hits the 50% its a really good sign.

Go Obama/Biden

[NicasioKid]

I think most of these polls are conducted the "old-fashioned" way - regular land lines to households where someone is likely to be home. I wonder what percentage - if any - are young people who use only cell phones? We could discover that traditional polling is going to be less and less accurate over time - and maybe this November will produce a big surprise in the outcome - more of a landslide, if those young people head to the polls!

[JLee]

I keep being reminded of 1932. The polls had Hoover winning because a lot of Roosevelt supporters didn't have telephones.

[rjmiller]

This is absolutely true. I don't know what percentage of voters is 18-30, but a large proportion of them do not have regular phones (myself included) and the vast majority are Obama supporters. If that demographic makes up even 5% of voters then this may turn into a landslide.

[surfcitysteven]

I am in complete opposition to the use of land lines anywhere in the world. they are cruel and indiscriminate in the havoc they reek.

[SocialistDistortion]

Whoa there, killer. Let's not forget that this is BEFORE THE RNC. Wait until next week to see if Obama holds that large of a lead. McCain will be sure to get some kind of bounce himself.

Besides, all the polling in the world means absolutely nothing if McCain wins. Don't forget that John Kerry held a 6 point lead over Bush during the 2004 campaign season and look what happened.

Bottom line, polls don't matter. November 4th is what matters. We need to stay sharp and stay focused on McCain and his dangerous policies, not Sarah Palin - that's exactly what the Repubs want.

[allseasons]

The prime objective of the MSM is to report that this race is really close. That keeps the people watching and the advertising dollars pouring in. This is not about reporting. This is about money.

[bwaynester]

obama will win in a landslide. i keep blogging it. it will be true. no one wants McC to win. not even the repubs. these polls are erroneous. if you are a patriotic american, and you can hold your racism in check, you can not want 4 more years. be honest with yourself. you know it is true.

[jgalvan]

Not so fast, I support Senator Obama for President and also hope for win for our country this November but, everyone must get out and vote and tell everyone they know just how he will change Washinton. With all due respect telling everyone that its a landslide will only keep voters away because they believe its in the bag. Keep the faith.

[JeffE]

Gallup says 81% of former Clinton backers now back Obama. McCain's choice is rightly being seen as a slap in the face to women who backed a candidate with substantive, credible national governing experience, and who now support the candidate she's endorsed.

Obama and Clinton squared off as equals, went toe to toe on the major issues. Sarah Palin is no Hillary Clinton, and yet, the Republicans are suggesting that to criticize her is somehow sexist. How parternal an attitude is that?

McCain continues to prove that he's simply not up to the job, while Obama and Biden take the high road to the White House. Americans are fed up with cynicism and stale political maneuvering. They want real change, the genuine article, and the Dems have it in Barack Obama.

[clearthinker2008]

Americans are becoming more ignorant by the minute.

[AnotherToerag]

Hmm... the polls are trending to show otherwise!

[washington31]

The RNC convention is dull. Tried watching and couldn't stomach it.

[KIMBER]

"Obama only gets 58% of Clinton supporters in the poll, versus 22% for McCain."
When are we going to wise up and stop bellyaching about this? These people were never Clinton supporters, they are Rush Lintball "operation chaos" people who voted for Clinton because they wanted to sow discord and yes, chaos in the Democratic party. All you had to do was listen to the guy for a few minutes, and you could hear all about it, him egging people on to do it, bragging about their successes, people calling in saying they had done it. They were at the polls smirking about what they were doing, and some of them shot themselves in the foot when they discovered it precluded them from voting for other Rethugs. Clinton was the candidate of choice for Rethugs who wanted to mess with the Democrats. It was a well orchestrated and documented phenomenon, and they're still out there as PUMA's, throwing around statements about how they were supporting Clinton but now they're supporting McCain, still attempting to sow chaos. They were never for Clinton, they were always Rethugs in donkey clothing, and we need to quit giving them attention so they can just slither off and lick themselves.

[eden4barack08]

Fantastic!

Can you explain by what dynamic the CNN poll can be so low and so different from the others (1%)?