Japan's first week of this crisis has revealed to the world what many Japan watchers have known for many years -- that it was woefully unprepared to deal with an inevitable severe earthquake and its repercussions.
TEPCO (the Tokyo Electric Power Company) and the Japanese government have unfortunately fulfilled the expectations of many who are familiar with their histories addressing crises, in which they have proven either inept or purposely misleading in delivering trustworthy information to the public. To proclaim, as one Japanese minister did last weekend, that the amount of radiation released at that time was equivalent to a CAT scan was simply absurd. We should not have expected more from TEPCO, which has in previous instances delivered purposely misleading information. But the Japanese government had an opportunity to shine in managing this crisis; it has regrettably fallen fall short of the mark.
Had TEPCO and the government either had a handle on what was occurring at the Fukushima nuclear complex, or been honest and forthright in reporting what was occurring, they might have put themselves in a position to reach out for international assistance more rapidly, and the events over the past week at the complex may not necessarily have unfolded as they have.
U.S. government officials have expressed alarm at how this ordeal has been handled and envision a possible 'dead zone' in Northeast Japan for decades. We could see a scenario in which a large swathe of northeast Japan becomes permanently uninhabitable. Were that to occur, the impact on the Japanese economy would clearly be severe and would preclude the idea of rebuilding areas impacted by the quake and tsunami. As bad as that would be, the impact on companies expecting to participate in the rebuilding effort would be unwelcome, and the anticipated 'bounce' in global share prices as a result of spending an anticipated $200 billion to rebuild the area would prove to be premature, since it may not happen at all.
Even if it is determined that there is no breach of the reactor cores -- which would be a real miracle, and completely unexpected at this juncture -- it will take many months and possibly a year or more for the cores of each reactor to completely cool down. This may require controlled releases of small amounts of radiation into the atmosphere on an ongoing basis, with an inevitable, yet unquantifiable long-term impact on the food chain and water supplies. Can regular exposure to high levels of radiation ever be acceptable to people living up or down wind from the reactors? Certainly not. The result would presumably be mass exodus from northeast Japan, and even possibly from cities as far away as Tokyo.
The Japanese government, its people, and its businesses face some unsavory choices. First, they must ask some very hard questions about what can realistically be accomplished. Is it realistic to presume that the area within 50 kilometers of the Fukushima complex can be repopulated? Does it make sense to imagine rebuilding in the quake and tsunami impacted areas? And can the radiation be truly contained in the absence of kamikaze-type workers who will agree to die for the greater good of the Japanese people?
Second, if mass forced relocation is required, how can tens of millions of people be moved to safe ground within Japan? This will be a serious problem, and will undoubtedly require creation of millions of temporary shelters and ultimately, millions of permanent residences in the southern part of the country. This is where any construction boom could occur.
Third, how can thousands of businesses either be relocated or shift their mode of operation to alternative locations? What impact will this have on the national and global supply chain? How long would it take to make such a transition?
Whether Japan ultimately faces this nightmare scenario or is able to salvage its northeast through some sort of miracle, TEPCO and the Japanese government must do a much better job managing the crisis and delivering believable and trustworthy information to the Japanese and global public. Fukushima is evolving into what will surely become the world's worst nuclear accident. Japan, and the world, are learning some valuable lessons about what needs to be done to prevent a similar event from ever occurring again.
Daniel Wagner is managing director of Country Risk Solutions, a political risk consulting firm based in Connecticut, as well as senior advisor to the PRS Group.
Follow Daniel Wagner on Twitter: www.twitter.com/countryriskmgmt
Carl Pope: What Have They Done to the Rain?
Have a similar earthquake happen in China, off Taiwan or near California, and watch what happens. Will those be handled much better? I don't think so. A quake of that magnitude will cause major tragedies wherever it happens.
Typical for a Westerner. We think that organization and solutions should come from essentially artificial institutions. The true strength of Japan transcends the current government or a power company, it is in the sinews of Japanese culture. Japan and the Japanese are schooling we Westerners on how a truly advanced culture deals with adversity.
There will be a Japan long after Western nation-states (an invention of the 18th Century, in any case) are nothing more than relics of history.
Which country on the planet could handle that with ease?
We're hardly the ones to point fingers; Katrina was just 6 years ago, not exactly a shining moment in American disaster management.
2000: 480,000
2010: 340,000
No other country could do what Japan is doing right now. Ultimately, it's up to the people, and local government. When people depend on central government or corporations, they will get inferior results.
Humans will NEVER be able to account for every variable in nature.
Japan or US?
“? and the ? government have unfortunately fulfilled the expectations of many who are familiar with their histories addressing crises, in which they have proven either inept or purposely misleading in delivering trustworthy information to the public.”
TEPCO/Japanese or BP/Big Oil/ US?
“To proclaim, as one ?(1) did last weekend, that the amount of ?(2) released at that time was ?(3) was simply absurd.”
(1) Japanese minister or US Cabinet Secretary?
(2) radiation or oil?
(3) insert grossly understated measurement of choice
“We should not have expected more from ?, which has in previous instances delivered purposely misleading information.”
TEPCO or BP/Big Oil?
“But the ? government had an opportunity to shine in managing this crisis; it has regrettably fallen fall short of the mark.”
Japanese or US?
Pattern here? The parallels are obvious in this and other articles and broadcasts.
It can take as long as ten years for spent fuel rods to cool enough that they no longer need to be submerged in water.
Not sure who the "Japan watchers" are but it seems a bit early to start throwing sticks and stones. There is and will be a lot of dead to bury/cremate while disease set's in. Maybe the lectures can come a little later. I sure hope the US watchers have the Gulf Coast prepared for the upcoming season of hurricanes but then again, you can see those coming so therefore nothing to worry about. Maybe instead of stating "sticks and stones" above I should have said "rocks in glass houses".
"Japan, and the world, are learning some valuable lessons about what needs to be done to prevent a similar event from ever occurring again."
Theories on prevention would need to be tested on a full scale but fake nuclear plant with a 9.0 eartquake thrown at it with no negative effects. Prevent might be to lofty a goal especially when you add "ever" to it.
DW
Japan was hit by a 9.0 earthquake, followed by a tsunami, followed by multiple, ongoing nuclear power plant problems. The death count is currently projected to be over 10,000. This is very tragic. However, if this triple threat hit any other country, do you really think they would have fared BETTER?
If this happened in Los Angeles, where I live, we would be sc.rewed. A lot of our buildings haven't been retrofitted to match earthquake safety standards! We should give the Japanese credit not just for their preparedness, but also for their dignity and honor. There is hardly any looting happening in Japan. Would that happen in the U.S.? Highly, highly unlikely given what we've seen in Hurricane Katrina.
Also, it's kind of hard to prepare for a tsunami beyond going to higher ground and following tsunami evacuation signs (which Japan does have). At least with the earthquake, no buildings came toppling down. It was the tsunami that took thousands of lives.
Yes, why aren't those looters rushing into the radioactive zone?