The Ticking Lie Scenario

President Bush, at his press conference on Tuesday, pleaded ignorance as his excuse for statements going back many months--statements which, if made with knowledge and not from ignorance, were treacherous, deceptive, and entailed a deliberate risk to the security of the United States.

He said he didn't know the contents of the December 2007 National Intelligence Estimate until a few days ago. This, he implied, was the reason why he spoke freely and provocatively through the summer and fall about the direness of the international threat posed by Iran. A pardonable error, since he was using the best intelligence available to him at the time.

The NIE seems to have been made public as a result of pressure within the intelligence community. The new findings about Iran, if kept secret and distorted, might deeply affect the future of the United States; and so their release became a patriotic obligation. A similar motive can be heard in some recent court decisions and in public statements by leaders of the armed forces.

The National Intelligence Estimate of December 3 says: "We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program." It adds: "We assess with moderate confidence that Tehran has not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007." And: "We continue to assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Iran does not currently have a nuclear weapon." And finally: "Tehran's decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005." There are several other judgments, all in the same vein.

President Bush said in his December 4 press conference: "I was made aware of the NIE last week. In August, I think it was Mike McConnell came in and said, we have some new information. He didn't tell me what the information was; he did tell me it was going to take a while to analyze." Anyone who has ever told a lie or detected a lie, and who heard those words as the president spoke them, could pick out the tell-tale signs: the odd pause, the empty negative ("he didn't tell me"), the needless symmetry ("he did tell me"), the calculated vagueness about an entity already as vague as the month of August ("I think it was"), for which precise words had not been charted. It was not only a lie but a shallow lie, easy to expose, unworthy of him.

Compare the press conference of October 17 at which the president said: "We got a leader in Iran who has announced that he wants to destroy Israel. So I've told people that if you're interested in avoiding World War III, it seems like you ought to be interested in preventing them from having the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon. I take the threat of Iran with a nuclear weapon very seriously." The deliberate fudging around "the knowledge necessary," and the citation of the Iranian president's repulsive words about Israel as the worst we knew about Iran, together now suggest that on October 17 the president already knew the shape of the actual intelligence. He was doing the most he could with non-incendiary materials; but he didn't yet expect that the NIE would tell the country what he himself had been made to see.

Very likely, he knew of Iran's cutback already when he shot out the major quotation of the day on August 28, in his American Legion address in Reno: "Iran's active pursuit of technology that could lead to nuclear weapons threatens to put a region already known for instability and violence under the shadow of a nuclear holocaust. Iran's actions threaten the security of nations everywhere. And that is why the United States is rallying friends and allies around the world to isolate the regime, to impose economic sanctions. We will confront this danger before it is too late." Note the mention of Israel, conjoined with the ambiguous, exploitative use of the word holocaust (a word, in connection with "nuclear," seldom heard since the 1960s). Bush may have wanted to pique the interest of the American Legion, but his real audience for this part was Israeli politicians and the Israel Lobby. The president, moving our country closer to war, was reassuring a Middle East ally that he was still on course. A hidden indication that he knew of the NIE but thought it would stay a secret may be found in the words "active pursuit." A phrase that carefully says nothing but makes your pulse race anyway; implying, without asserting, that Iran's nuclear program is active.

In August, the president was sure of his cover; all he needed was plausible deniability. In December, he was caught in the open. He had to feign an innocence so ludicrous it amounts to a confession of incompetence in itself.

One set of reactions has been revealing. The power of anger is not in the Democrats. Some essential ingredient of the human passions has passed out of their system. Senator Biden, before the NIE appeared, had threatened to impeach the president if he went to war against Iran without authorization; but here was plain evidence of a four-year instigation toward a war, without authorization: why not now summon Cheney, Hadley, and Bush to testify what they knew and when they knew it before they try a similar experiment by a different route? And, while you are at it, call on Senator Lieberman, the author of two incendiary and (as they now appear) ill-informed resolutions on Iran. Many people would like to know who gave Lieberman his certain knowledge of the state of Iranian nuclear knowledge--a question the more interesting since, evidently, that certainty did not come from the United States.

Harry Reid issued a statement of consummate nervelessness. "I hope this Administration reads this report carefully and appropriately adjusts its rhetoric and policy vis-a-vis Iran. The Administration should begin this process by finally undertaking a diplomatic surge necessary to effectively address the challenges posed by Iran." Hillary Clinton, for her part, implicitly sided with the president when she did not have to, and, saying nothing about the abuse of intelligence, declared that the problem remains how to "stop Iran's nuclear ambitions"--for which she said (steering a middle path against the romantic illusions of the CIA) the cure is "neither saber rattling nor unconditional meetings." She spoke on December 4 as if she knew exactly as much as any of us knew on December 2. Barack Obama, a quarter-shade to the left of Clinton, noted without excitement that the NIE "makes a compelling case for less saber-rattling and more direct diplomacy." Of the leading candidates, only Edwards drew the obvious lesson with some sharpness: the NIE "shows that George Bush and Dick Cheney's rush to war with Iran is, in fact, a rush to war." Edwards implied that stopping the rush would call for continued pressure against Cheney and Bush by a determined opposition.

These local tremors would have ended the story within two days, had it not been re-opened elsewhere. For the president's plea of ignorance was exploded once and for all in a country with a free press: Israel. Amos Harel reported in Haaretz on December 6: "Israel has known about the report for more than a month." Harel specified the Israeli Defense Minister, Ehud Barak, as one of those who knew the contents of the NIE; it was also, he said, a subject of discussion at Annapolis between George W. Bush and Ehud Olmert. The Haaretz story incidentally carries a subtext. Israel was surprised by the fact that American intelligence acted in American interests and made the report public, thus rendering questionable the case for a U.S. attack on Iran. One can understand the disappointment. The fears of a Barak may be warranted, as those of a Bolton are not, given the proximity to a hostile power and the danger even of a non-nuclear threat. But maybe these private understandings based on public falsification of the facts, on which Olmert and Bush had relied, are a consolation well lost to the leaders of two professing democracies. They should not be in the business of keeping secrets from their people in order to lead their countries into new wars of aggression. The Israeli analyst Harel keeps his balance more steadily than one can imagine an American doing, were the positions reversed. Israeli estimates differ in degree from those of the NIE, he remarks; so who is right? "It just might possibly be the Americans."

Suppose for experiment's sake the innocent hypothesis. The president ran into Michael McConnell some time in August, and heard there was something radically new in the NIE, but he didn't care to follow-up before the public release of the estimate. This is an old story with him. We heard it about George Tenet and the presidential daily briefing a month before the World Trade Center catastrophe, when the president was told Bin Laden intended to strike within the U.S. and he thought nothing of it. The lack of curiosity alone, in these cases, amounts to a public menace. Combine that with the arrogance, the restless anxiety, the love of vicarious action and the ability to look us in the face and lie -- and it makes a very toxic brew.

This president is a danger-maker, convinced he lives for all of us when he lives on the edge; and his authority must be curbed. Every statement issuing from the White House or its vicinity may now be assumed to be false unless supported by interests that are demonstrably separate from those of the White House. Trust has completely broken down. We are better off recognizing the truth and acting on the recognition than pretending for a moment longer. The pattern, from Iraq to Katrina to Iran, is not accident but character.

Comments

[nicksc]

Very excellent post! The president's lie or curious absence of curiosity was obvious when Jay Rockefeller told a reporter on NPR that he had been briefed in the summer on the substance of the NIE, and it is unlikely that Sen. Rockefeller would be told more than the president, despite the very human urge to shelter children and the mentally infirm.

[Bernique]

I think you make a case for the president is "senile". When can he be committed?

[miamirat]

it always amazes me that somehow gwb is attributed with this problem. Dear American's you have been giving your dollars and your limbs and your lives up 2 hundred years of lies. Democracy in this land was not for the masses. Things got out of control for a little while, during which the lesser of you thought you should have a piece of the action too. Not so. You're the damn enemy to the elite folks.

Just imagine, if your imagination is still working, that the commies were never our enemies. Maybe like the cubans, and the native americans and the muslims were given no choice but to defend themselves for survival and thereby became the enemy while not being the agressor? It is the history of the gringo's, including the british before america that the elites wealth was generated by taking it from those who had it.

I hear pundits complaining that they want a government that's run like a business!! Like Enron ! that's the GWB white house for sure. Kenny Boy could run the U.S. Government on the same rules as GW. But, don't bitch about GW being unique in this. It's been visible for anyone to see for 150 years in the home of brave. That Monroe Doctrine. That Manifest Destiny. That bunch of lying liars. Tell me how it is that america is now different from the spin Communism got for those more than 50 years. What's the difference between the Nazis and US? Aren't we headed that same way. Aren't we just using Israel to keep the arab hatred alive. Isn't that the real reason that Palestine was handed off to the jews instead of Miami Beach? That's the great likeness of the jews and the wasps: They don't know how to stop making enemies, so they're always defending themselves with "if you're not with us, You're against us. America was founded on religious Hatred and so was Israel.

LISTEN TO A MAN (GOVERNMENT) TALK ABOUT HIS ENEMIES, AND HE'LL TELL YOU ALL ABOUT HIMSELF AND NOTHING ABOUT ANYONE ELSE !

[amacd]

Since 12/3 “everything has changed”!

12/3, the date of the NIE reporting that Iran was no nuclear threat, has “changed everything” as the saying goes.

Since 12/3, all American citizens and voters have been able to see that all the mainstream candidates, of both parties, were totally wrong in their militarist threats that “all options had to be ‘on the table’ with Iran” --- and that all the candidates’ ‘tough guy’ threatening to bomb Iran have now been shown to be dangerous exaggerations by posturing and cowardly fools.

But the MSM, which has anointed these rash, cowardly, foolish and dangerous candidates, is now trying desperately to bury this story and ignore all the debate videotapes of these ‘leading’ candidates having just weeks earlier said things like, “Well, I would take an even stronger position than my fellow candidates and ‘leave all options on the table’”.

Does the MSM expect that Americans are really so stupid that they can not remember the wrong and threatening statements that all these fools took only a few weeks ago?

Does the MSM think that they can fool the entire American public, as Bush tried to do with his ‘happy-talk’ press conference the next morning --- saying that almost starting a nuclear war with Iran was OK because it worked out fine?

Does the MSM think that Americans are going to believe any of their ‘Entertainment Tonight-style’ reporting of their vacuous election analysis now that we have all seen the truth of 12/3?

What 12/3 shows the American public is not simply that Iran was not ever a nuclear threat, but far more importantly, that the entire circus of all these corporate sponsored, MSM-promoted, and pro-war candidates running around in circles and threatening to wage more war for the Empire behind ‘Vichy America’ is a deadly and dangerous sham of democracy that they and their children can not afford to be fooled about.

[HearsaWho]

David Bromwich's article is clear, hard-hitting and packed with justified outrage. He nevertheless is pulling his punches. The time is past for hinting about our only constitutional remedy for an out-of-control, law-breaking, lying, Constituti­on-trashin­g, war-mongering presidency. The "I word." IMPEACHMENT! We all need to be saying it, and saying it loudly. Pushing it in the faces of our spineless (or perhaps "complicit" would be a better word) representatives. Impeach now, before it's too late!
Senator Biden is pussyfooting around the issue, talking about impeaching Bush "if" he attacks Iran. Too little, too late my friend! Try this scenario out: a US warship blows up and sinks in a Middle Eastern harbor, or a destroyer in the Persian Gulf is reportedly attacked in the middle of the night by torpedo boats, or US troops "accidentally" on the wrong side of the border are attacked and killed. Or worse, a "dirty bomb" goes off in Jersey City, triggering a stampede of millions of panic-striken people trying to escape from Manhattan. Bush blames Iran, orders a retaliatory strike, and goes before Congress thundering outrage and demanding support. How many of our spineless legislators will stand up to him THEN? At best they'll split, at worst they'll stampede for cover!
No, we need to act NOW. We need to take all our disgust and despair and outrage, all seven years' worth, and forge it into a mighty movement that can push Congress into doing its duty. Impeach and remove this pair of dangerous scoundrels before it's too late!

While we're at it, David, let's stop being shy about naming the leader and moral beacon of this movement, Congressman Dennis Kucinich, the un-candidate!

[CSE]

The following source is unavailable at Haaretz given the information. Can you provide a reference to the original story?

"Amos Harel reported in Haaretz on December 6: "Israel has known about the report for more than a month." Harel specified the Israeli Defense Minister, Ehud Barak, as one of those who knew the contents of the NIE; it was also, he said, a subject of discussion at Annapolis between George W. Bush and Ehud Olmert. The Haaretz story incidentally carries a subtext. Israel was surprised by the fact that American intelligence acted in American interests and made the report public, thus rendering questionable the case for a U.S. attack on Iran."

[mamacat]

One of the lies coming from the White House has been that Iran does not need to develop nuclear energy because they are sitting on top of more oil than they could possibly use. Thanks to the New York Times today, in an article on dwindling oil supplies, where they point out that within the next ten years Iran will become an oil importer.
While I am not thrilled with the idea of using nuclear energy plants to replace oil energy plants (nuclear plants are very susceptible to bombing from the United States, with all of the radiation fallout that would ensue), it is clear that all nations need to think about and plan for the day when they will not be able to use oil for their energy needs.
I have not decided who to vote for, but as Mr. Bromwich points out, neither Sen.s Obama nor Clinton appear to have a handle on how dangerous the right wing policies vis-a-vis Iran are to world stability.

[charon]

Bush lied. Cheney lied. They tried but couldn't keep the NIE secret. Huckabee lies about pushing to have a convicted rapist released. Giuliani lies about spending NYC money on his girlfriend. Gonzo lied. The CIA destroys torture tapes to protect themselves from liability. The Inspector General is given oversight of a company where his brother sits on the board of directors. The list grows.

In short, the Republican executive is the greatest danger to the American people. It is rife with traitorous scum from bottom to top. The whole lot of them belong in prison for Treason, or extradited to the Hague for trial on charges of Crimes Against Humanity. The 30% of Americans who polls say still support Bush are supporters of a lying, immoral, corrupt, lawless group who have conspired to break the laws repeatedly and obstructed any attempts to bring them to justice.

It is time to end this abomination.

[SeriousBlack]

Excellent, excellent post by David Bromwich.

[coop]

I'm more surprised that the media is surprised. They're SHOCKED that he lied. In fact they're so shocked that they are trying to figure out what possibly could have happened because of the contradictions. They're trying their damndest to make sense of it all and the confusion and possibility of deception is crumbling their little world view.

It's quite simple, he said those things about WWIII and atomic bombs because he didn't expect the NIE to defiantly tell the truth.

Now the trick is, if the media can work out the logic: "hmmm, if he blatanty lied about that... maybe he lied about other things too... but we didn't listen to the whistle blowers because the Administration told us they were crazy, angry, partisan...

Wait a minute, could all those stories be true all this time? Could Bush and Cheney really be... bad?, Oh crap what have we done!"

[Marlyn]

"The lack of curiosity alone, in these cases, amounts to a public menace."

That's our president.

[Marlyn]

"He had to feign an innocence so ludicrous it amounts to a confession of incompetence in itself."

GW incompetent? Surely you jest.

[Marlyn]

"It was not only a lie but a shallow lie, easy to expose, unworthy of him." ???

Why do you say "unworthy of him"?

GW Bush is not worthy in any way. He and his administration have done nothing but lie to us. They don't believe in telling the truth.

[brutus948]

Just shows the power of Israel lobby in this country. The can make us go to war for no reason at all.

[JohnCitizen]

THE LATEST NIE

The day the BUSH/CHENEY WAR OF TERROR on the American people died! Shocking - Darth Vater can no longer make up the intelligence he needs to match his beliefs and ideology. Thank you, Bob Gates. Bush/Cheney will have to live in the real world, the rational world. UNBELIEVABLE, IMPOSSIBLE!