As the Republican primary swings into full gear, it is clear that much has changed since early fall, when the candidates first began to duke it out. A combination of #JebIsToast and Donald Trump's widely covered antics about Islam, women and political correctness have shifted the campaign away from the establishment toward an all-out battle between a pool of candidates vying for second place, behind The Donald.
The most successful strategy so far has been for candidates to claim that they are just as conservative as Trump, but more electable. This was the mantra of Ben Carson, who quickly captured momentum, fueled by the candidate's impressive bio and candid appeal to American voters. But in the last month, Ted Cruz has catapulted ahead of Carson, as voters begin to look toward the general election. In Cruz, the right has found a fiery conservative, an articulate orator and a candidate with the seriousness and laser focus to win the general election.
The primary race began as anybody's game. Now, we have seen campaigns grow and others fizzle, largely based on the competence of the candidates and the effectiveness of their managers. John Kasich, a candidate with one of the strongest records on the primary stage, came off as not only out of touch with voters - recently defending a bank bailout (valid, maybe, but certainly not what voters are looking for), but also spineless and somewhat annoying. His dismal debate performances and lack of clear message have prevented a breakout. A potential vice presidential nominee from the start, Kasich has all but ruined his chances of breaking out of the pack.
Chris Christie pulled off the unexpected, pulling ahead in New Hampshire as his strategy of focusing on the early-voting state began to pay off. Highlighting his experience as a prosecutor and framing himself as an aggressive, macho candidate willing to fight ISIS has helped him play into the current mood of the Republican Party and stay alive. By adapting to the circumstances of the race - an electorate focused on foreign policy and interested in a strong leader - Christie has pulled into second place, behind Marco Rubio, as a viable establishment option.
Where Christie adapted, Scott Walker and Jeb Bush have completely failed. Neither candidate took the rise of Donald Trump seriously enough to fundamentally change their strategy. Republicans are looking for an aggressive winner as their president, not a policy wonk or a career politician. Walker, seeing the writing on the wall, dropped out. Bush will probably run this election to its finish. With nothing to lose, the bland candidate will chug on clamoring for whatever support he can find until he runs out of money.
Meanwhile, smaller-time candidates who probably entered the race for the publicity, not because they stood a serious shot, have dropped out. Lindsay Graham successfully moved the party to the right on fighting ISIS. Bobby Jindal quit earlier. Jim Gilmore, Rick Santorum, and George Pataki should follow suit. This will leave us with the final cast of characters: Carson, Trump, Bush, Huckabee, Paul, Cruz, Christie, Fiorina and Rubio.
Perhaps the most interesting candidate to look at is Marco Rubio, who I first predicted would be president back in May. These days, I'm not as sure. Clearly, Rubio was undervalued back then - European bookmaker Paddy Power had him at 1:8 odds on being elected president. These days those odds have climbed to 1:5 (unfortunately, it's illegal to bet on U.S. political outcomes).
These odds seem fair. Despite his place as the establishment's first choice candidate for many months now, Rubio has failed to consolidate influence among the establishment. At the same time, he has not made inroads into capturing right wing supporters. That's problematic, because he's had plenty of time to do so. These voters have vetted him - and decided they don't like what they see. Now the establishment is starting to get jittery. What happens when Rubio gets trounced in Iowa and New Hampshire? Will he be able to come back?
As a strong conservative and a party insider, Rubio has been positioned to catapult into first or second place. But he hasn't. That's because instead of pivoting right, getting more aggressive on ISIS and sounding angrier, he is not adapting. He's hoping he'll win as the calm and controlled Trump alternative. But blue-collar workers are only going to leave Trump when they feel like the alternative is not only more electable, but also specifically catering to them. This has been the magic of Cruz. By sticking to his current strategy, Rubio is eliminating roads to the nomination. I'm increasingly struggling to visualize exactly how this Rubio resurgence empirically happens.
Instead, I increasingly visualize Cruz outperforming in Iowa and Christie outperforming in New Hampshire. Suddenly, Rubio looks weaker. When Super Tuesday rolls around, Trump and Cruz dominate, leaving Rubio and Christie to divide the establishment. Perhaps Cruz will win outright, or alternatively, we'll go into the nominating convention with no guaranteed winner. But at this point, neither Christie nor Rubio will be strong enough to pull out ahead. It will be obvious that the insurgents won. That will leave the party with no choice but to nominate Cruz.
Now the minute this happens, Democrats spend millions of dollars to get the first say on defining freshly nominated Cruz to the public, just as they did with Romney. Since all the Hillary dirty laundry has already been aired, Cruz will be up for a beating - especially seeing as there's so much to work with: Cruz tried to shut the government down twice and doesn't believe that a women who is raped should be able to get an abortion. For Clinton, this is now a perfect demographic battle. Winning millennials, Hispanics and women, the deeply-flawed candidate cruises to an undeserved victory.
The Republicans had better hope Rubio picks up his game. Because it's clear that slow and steady will not win this race.