Was the 2012 presidential election just decided by the Republican-controlled legislature in Ohio? It is possible. Two days ago, the state's House of Representatives passed one of the most restrictive voter ID laws in the country. If the bill is enacted into law, it will make it harder for President Obama to win in Ohio next year.
Ohio, as we all know, has become the mother of all swing states. It was ground zero of the titanic fight between Bush and Kerry in 2004, and the outcome there narrowly secured Bush a second term. Ohio was also hotly contested in 2000.
Obama fought hard to win the state in 2008, and did so with a five point margin. But a new poll out earlier this week now shows Ohioans exactly divided on whether Obama should be re-elected. With unemployment in Ohio still likely to be above 8 percent next year, Ohio is going to be a tough fight for Democrats and the state will again be the scene of massive turnout efforts by both parties.
If Ohio is decided by a close margin, the new voter ID law could give a Republican contender enough of an edge to win there. And, if the state's 20 electoral votes are decisive, the outcome in Ohio could determine the election.
The math here is pretty simple. According to state Democrats, an estimated 890,000 Ohioans do not have a government-issued photo ID. A disproportionate number of these people are African-Americans, Latinos, seniors, and students -- groups that tend to vote Democratic. In fact, nationwide about 25 percent of African Americans do not have a photo ID and nor do a fifth of voters between 18 and 22.
A 2007 study on voter ID requirements by three political scientists -- Matt Barreto, Stephen Nuño, and Gabriel Sanchez -- found that voting laws which require specific or multiple forms of identification are likely to "disenfranchise many Latino, Asian and African American citizens."
The study also found that voter ID laws have clear partisan effects:
We find compelling evidence that those less likely to have access to multiple forms of identification are disproportionately Democrat. . . . voters with more access to identification are more likely to vote Republican.
The Ohio Republicans who engineered the voting ID legislation say there should be no worries because the new law allows voters to get a free photo ID at the Bureau of Motor Vehicles. But come on: the obstacles to registering and voting are already bad enough in most states and Ohio is worse than most. Ohioans must register 30 days before election day, even though polls have long shown that many voters don't get really engaged in election contests until a few weeks or even days before election day.
Ohio is also famous for its long lines at polling places and various other problems with its election practices. Things were so bad there that in 2005 top state officials were sued by reform groups and citizens for failing to protect the fundamental voting rights of Ohioans. That suit resulted in a historic 2009 agreement to fix how elections are conducted in the state.
Maybe I'm missing something here, but asking some of the state's poorest residents -- many of whom don't have ID because they don't have cars -- to schlep to the BMV to get a photo ID card is not exactly consistent with the spirit of that agreement. (Nor is it consistent with efforts to control state spending, since giving out those free IDs could cost nearly $20 million over three years, as Tova Wang, a Senior Democracy Fellow at Demos, pointed out in testimony to the legislature there earlier this week -- just one of the implementation costs associated with the law.) The net effect could be to throw up the highest barriers to voting in Ohio yet.
Which seems to be exactly the point of Republican legislators who rushed the voter ID bill through the Ohio House.
Now, if there was any credible evidence of voting fraud in Ohio, there might be reasons to think this is something other than a partisan power play. But no such evidence exists. As the Brennan Center for Justice notes about Ohio, in a policy brief about voter identification: "a statewide survey found four instances of ineligible persons voting or attempting to vote in 2002 and 20042 out of 9,078,728 votes cast - a rate of 0.00004%."
Not surprisingly, fraud is not a pressing concern of local election officials. For instance, as the Cleveland Plain Dealer reported "Cuyahoga County Board of Elections head Jane Platten, a Democrat, said she has never seen a case of voter impersonation in the seven years she has been with the local elections board." During that period, millions of voter were cast by the nearly 1 million registered voters in the county. Former Democratic Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner told the paper that during her four years in office she also never saw a single case of voter impersonation in Ohio. And a top election official who served an earlier secretary of state said the same thing.
Last year, Demos Senior Fellow Lori Minnite published a groundbreaking book with the blunt title The Myth of Voter Fraud. Minnite's research in multiple states confirmed the observations of veteran election officials in Ohio: voter fraud is not a significant problem in U.S. elections.
What is a threat to our electoral system are deliberate efforts to disenfranchise voters for partisan gain. And make no mistake: That is what is happening in Ohio.
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David A. Love: Voter ID Is the GOP's "Block the Vote" Effort for 2012
You may note that the state will waive the cost of ID. True, but that doesn't cover the cost of, say, a certified birth certificate copy, time off from work, or transportation to get to the BMV. Many older folks gave up their drivers license when they stopped driving -- my father, who died at 96 last year literally didn't have a birth certificate, and for those living only on Social Security, again, the cost is prohibitive. This bill, H.B. 159, puts a great burden on a lot qualified electors.
If it was legal last time - it should be legal this time.
This is called Republicans trying to skew the votes.
You could email OFA and tell them your idea.
1. How would you know if there has been no instance of voter impersonation if one does not check who the voter is.
2. The study states that those without access to multiple forms of ID are disproportionately democrat. Doesn't the law state a voter only needs one? (a valid state ID) Why does a voter need multiple forms?
3. What do long lines at the voting stations have to do with the requirement for a picture ID to vote?
4. A state ID in Ohio is good for 4 years, why is it unreasonable to ask a voter to take 2 hours out of one day every 4 years to get a state ID. Please note: the BMV has reasonable hours of operation.
see the link for the various location hours. http://bmv.ohio.gov/county_lst.stm
5. The total cost for a State ID is 8.50$ per every 4 years (2.125$ per year http://bmv.ohio.gov/fees_for_services.stm) which is probably as much as a road trip bus ride to a polling place. Why should these be free in the first instance.
6. If your theory is correct regarding the Republican party's desire to produce legislation to provide an electoral advantage at the polls, does that not mean that the Democratic party is doing the same thing?
7. If those disenfranchised voters happen to vote in aggregate Republican, would you be still advocating for this?
Because of the extra time it will take for the polling workers to check the ID.
Republicans know they can't win a fair fight. So they're always trying to rewrite the rules.
Those living on the streets with out ID are left out in the cold, but that's a small percentage of people. However those in the shelters can be helped. People in shelters can use the address of the shelter, or of a relative, anyplace they can go and pick up the card when it comes in the mail. One of the services shelters perform is to get people ID so they can get benefits, they help them get copies of their birth certificate and school records. You have to have 2 pieces of ID to get an ID card.
So in Michigan we went to the shelters, the week before voter registration closed (which is 30 days before the election), took people to get registered, and then went back to the shelters and picked them up and took them to early voting. Where there is a will there is a way, so not to worry.
Not to worry Ohioans, we registered 98% of age eligible Detroiters in 2008 with those same restrictioÂns. And we didn't use Acorn.
You have to start early, keep pressing the need to vote and start registerinÂg voters now. Get churches, and organizatiÂons to hold registratiÂon drives each weekend. Just remember where there is a will there is a way!
So yes we went to the shelters, the week before voter registration closed (which is 30 days before the election), took people to get registered, and then went back to the shelters and picked them up and took them to early voting. As I said before where there is a will there is a way, so not to worry Ohioans.
I registered 60 people in 2008 and everyone I know registered at least 2 people. I went door to door and left people addresses and places they could go to get registered. Most people in my neighborhood were registered except those just turning 18, but everyone knows as least 2 people who are not registered, just work on them. Take them to the Secretary of State.
See republicans don't know how to do that kind of grass roots organizing, and they think being a community organizer is funny. That's why they lost in 2008 and will loose in 2012.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/24/carlos-lam-scott-walker-fake-attack_n_840383.html
And by the way, voting is a right in the most fundamental terms. Not an "entitlement" or "privilege" but as fundamental as speech, life, assembly, religion.