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David Feige

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Let's Finally Say It: The Dow Favors Democrats and Loves Obama

Posted: 09/27/10 07:03 PM ET

It is an article of faith among the right wing punditocracy that the Democrats are bad for business, bad for the markets, and bad for the economy. The numbers, though, tell a completely different story. And yet, we Democrats seem powerless to counter this right-wing narrative. Rather than tout our accomplishments we seem to prefer to empathize with those still suffering.

Let's take, just for fun, one of the most widely regarded metrics -- the Dow Jones Industrial Average. If we look at how the markets have performed in the first 21 months of various administrations, it turns out, the markets love Democrats generally, and that in fact, in the first half of his term, Obama has presided over the biggest market rally of any newly elected president in more than 45 years. But do we tout this huge improvement? Oddly no.

2010-09-27-performancegraph.jpg

Here's the breakdown with the actual DJIA historical data...


UNDER RONALD REGAN:

DOW BEGAN: 970.99
DOW ENDED: 824.01
For a LOSS of 17.8 PERCENT


UNDER GEORGE H.W. BUSH

DOW BEGAN 2,239.11
DOW ENDED 2,427.48
For a moderate GAIN of 7.8 PERCENT



BILL CLINTON:

DOW BEGAN: 3,241.95
DOW ENDED 3,878.18
For a GAIN of 16.8 PERCENT



GEORGE W. BUSH

DOW BEGAN 10,581.90
DOW ENDED 7,698.81
For a whopping LOSS of 37.4%

And finally...

OBAMA

DOW BEGAN 7,949.17
DOW ENDED: 10,819.31
For a GAIN of 26.5%



Ok, so let's all agree to just trust the actual numbers which make clear that Democratic presidents have been great for the market, and that that Obama in particular has been wildly effective in shepherding in a massive recovery So from now on, instead of whining about how much better we need to do, let's try, just for once crowing about the biggest market rally in the first half of a new president's term in more than 45 years.

 
 
 
 
 
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08:13 PM on 09/29/2010
I'm sorry, Mr. Feige, but I'm not buying the snake oil.

The Federal Reserve dumped a unfathomable amount of money into the system during 2009-2010. I would certainly HOPE and expect that the stock market would have a strong, positive increase.

CHART:
http://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/lGLdoo07JjTgzhW9H-Vzd4dX4kA0K46oRqqqn30O9FQ

SOURCE:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?s[1][id]=AMBNS

In none of the other examples cited did the Federal Reserve respond so dramatically.

Likewise, look at total federal spending as a percentage of GDP. Note the huge increase in 2008-2010. Don't forget the $787+ BILLION Stimulus spending.
http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/downchart_gs.php?year=1980_2010&view=1&expand=&units=p&fy=fy11&chart=F0-total&bar=0&stack=1&size=l&title=US Government Spending As Percent Of GDP&state=US&color=c&local=s

The federal government is also running record deficits for the time period that you cover.
http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/downchart_gs.php?year=1980_2010&view=1&expand=&units=p&fy=fy11&chart=G0-fed&bar=0&stack=1&size=l&title=US Federal Deficit As Percent Of GDP&state=US&color=c&local=s

I'll take the Clinton-era returns any day as the conditions under the Obama Administration are ... what does the President call them ... UNSUSTAINABLE!
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04:29 PM on 09/28/2010
This is how this article originally began--

David Feige: Let's Finally Say It: The Dow Favors Democrats and Loves Ob...
Instead of whining about how much better we need to do, let's try, just for once crowing about the biggest market rally in the first half of a new president's term in more than 45 years."
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04:38 PM on 09/28/2010
Following the "W" word meme might land a person a job as presidential press secretary.
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04:05 PM on 09/28/2010
The Dow is irrelevant.

Jobs are what count.
12:06 PM on 09/28/2010
Under Bush it went up to 14,000! before the housing bubble and high oil prices brought it down to in the 7k's. With Obama it had to go back up. Either way you made more money under Bush. Based on historical data it goes up and down...

http://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=INDEXDJX:DJI
02:43 PM on 09/28/2010
I believe the author said "within the first 21 months of an administration."

'Cause yeah, how did it go from $3878.18 Clinton ended to $10,581.90 began Bush. (Did you catch that?) No average man made more money under Bush. Still, the numbers confirm that in the last 45 years, within the first 21 months of a presidency, the Dow favors the Dems. Which is what he wrote about.
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shothot
same, same, but different
03:23 PM on 09/28/2010
anyway to spin it. gotta read it right.
11:57 AM on 09/28/2010
You've presented some interesting correlations, but no examples of specific policies that may have caused these changes.
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cgeorgan
Proud American-Canadian Libertarian
01:40 PM on 09/28/2010
If you like those correlations, look up the ones where divisional winner of the NFL determines the direction of the DOW.

That "study", like this one, is quite commonplace on Wall Street.
11:53 AM on 09/28/2010
Posters, pundits, newspapers want exciting news, so they say the sky is falling. They will say foreclosures are up in 17 states, instead of saying forclosures are down in 35 states. Jobs are up in the private sector, but they say jobs are down, when it is government cut backs causing government job losses. Many of the jobless people do have income, but unreported income. Skilled jobs are difficult to find qualified people. Scare tactics on thre health bill, rather than the wonderful parts. I am sick of the whiners.
11:48 AM on 09/28/2010
First of all, the DOW is not the best reference for this example since it only represents 30 stocks. The S&P on the other hand represents 500 stocks. In any event, Obama was elected after the worst sell off since the Great Depression. It really comes down to timing not Obama's performance or the democrats. The S&P is still down by 30% from its peak in 10/07.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Broderick Crawford
11:35 AM on 09/28/2010
This is an attempt by David to focus on telling a completely different story. When you only look at a small section of economic data the results can be skewed quite a bit. Like when Ronald Reagan took office it was after Jimmy Carter left the country with 21 1/2% interest rates. No building was going on. RR won in a landslide but his tax cuts took more than two years to fully implement. What happened after that is far different and he was re-elected in another landslide. Barrack Obama was elected after a protracted economic freefall and since the market had been hovering around 14,000 he still has more than 3,000 to make up just to get even. The turn around in the market isn't going to get much higher anytime soon but after other recessions the market tended to return rather quickly to its former high and went higher. The reason it has moved recently is probably because if the republicans can control congress it won't be as bad for business and it is looking like that is going to happen.
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04:26 PM on 09/28/2010
I recall that Volcker was responsible for raising those rates into the twenties while serving under Reagan.
ThatsTheTheWayItIs
religion, ideology, partisanship are delusional
11:05 AM on 09/28/2010
The reason Dems don't tout those numbers is that Progressives (like those here) say it proves the Dems are a sell-out to Wall Street.

Yet another way radical Progressives ensure the defeat of Dem candidates. You see, most Americans work for or hold stock in corporations, they don't want them destroyed.
12:58 PM on 09/28/2010
This is partly true. The degree of satisfaction that Wall Street is feeling about how things are going does indeed look very much like a direct measure of the extent to which Obama has failed to deliver (or even fight for) the meaningful change that was promised.

(And why exactly are we supposed to feel that Obama making Wall Street billionaires happy is a good thing? They are riding high at the moment because they have been allowed to dump the long-term losses of their unethical and outright criminal enterprises onto the shoulders of the US taxpayers while being permitted to keep the short-term profits for themselves. Plus they have again side-stepped meaningful regulation and all accountability. Of course they are feeling good about that - but why should we?)

But your assertion that "Progressives" want to ensure the failure of Democratic candidates is ludicrous. I think they just want a Democrat who acts like one and are tired of electing peoply who after elected turn out to be indistinguishable from Republicans. One lesson that the Democrats have never seemed to learn is that in a race between a Republican who acts like a Republican and a Democrat who acts like a Republican the Republican will usually win.
ThatsTheTheWayItIs
religion, ideology, partisanship are delusional
01:47 PM on 09/28/2010
The problem is the term "Wall St" is meaningless. The big banks, the ones affected by financial reform, are not happy, and nor are their stockholders. Look at before/after crash stock prices of big banks:

Goldman: was $240, now $145
Citigroup: was $55, now $4
Morgan Stanley: was $73, now $25
BOA: was $55, now $13

I'm a stockholder, but only US solar stock, otherwise all international funds. If that's my return, I am not a happy camper. The idea that we bailed out stockholders of big banks is ridiculous.

We bailed out Main St, those stocks have come back - not Wall St.
Wall St knows this. Read yahoo finance, cbsmarketwatch - they hate Obama.
ThatsTheTheWayItIs
religion, ideology, partisanship are delusional
04:20 PM on 09/28/2010
If "acting like a Democrat" means excoriating Wall St, attacking big business and private enterprise, then a Dem acting like a Dem will always, always lose.

This is a much more right-wing nation since Reagan, this is not the land of FDR. Reagan convinced most Americans that government is the problem. Even the bailout: they don't blame Bush for wrecking the economy, just bailing out the banks. They think if government left capitalism alone, everything would work fine. We know that's not true, but the electorate does not.

42% of American say they are Conservative, 20% say Liberal. I think those numbers speak for themselves; Dems seen as Liberals lose.
11:01 AM on 09/28/2010
Republicans want our government so starved of revenue it can't support any programs other than defense--it's been their "starve the beast" mantra for years. They don't care if it messes up the economy or if people are starving, as long as they can kill those "evil" programs such as Social Security and Medicare. Some of them even think unemployment insurance is against the Constitution.

Right now their plan is obvious--tank the economy so it helps their prospects at the ballot box:


Republicans introduce “Kill the economy” plan

Congressional Republicans unveiled a plan on Monday that they said would hurt the nation’s economy, benefit the wealthy at the expense of the middle class and add billions to the national debt.

The move is a continuation of Republican policies during the Bush administration and part of a plan they hope will lead to rising voter dissatisfaction and Republican gains at the ballot box.

“Remember how we racked up huge deficits during the Bush years, gave billions to the wealthy and let the middle class fall behind? Well, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet,” House Minority Leader John Boehner (R- Ohio) said. “We’re going to drive those unemployment and deficit numbers up so high that the American people will be voting Republican until they realize we screwed them over once again.” (continued….)

http://www.thechicagodope.com/2010/08/16/republicans-introduce-%e2%80%9ckill-the-economy-plan%e2%80%9d/
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inmyhumbleopinion
Vote third party.
10:27 AM on 09/28/2010
Great news, but unfortunately only a small percentage of Americans are benefiting from the market upswing. Until that prosperity translates to jobs, the Dow can go up 100% and it won't make a difference to the average Joe.
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Welib
Peace on Earth!
12:57 PM on 09/28/2010
Well the only problem is that the Blue dogs and the Republicans refuse to allow Mr. Obama to put money into the hands of the middle class that create demand. 

Every time there is a bill for spending here, on our people, in our country, the Republicans block it.  They want us to crash again so they can say it's Obama's fault.

We are only 2 years into this depression.  The last one took us a full 25 years to recover from.  If we don't get rid of them in November, it's going to get a lot worse over the next 2.
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Nosybear
Liar, damned liar and statistician
10:18 AM on 09/28/2010
I really don't know if I'd find cause in this correlation but it plays nicely for the election. In the broader picture the economy has generally benefited from what in this country passes for liberal policies, a fact our Liberals don't have the means to communicate. It's a longer thought than a three-second sound byte and the voters, being victims of what we call an education in this country, can't focus on anything longer and, horrors, there's math involved.
09:46 AM on 09/28/2010
The stock market doing better under Dems than the GOP goes way back. Since1929, Dems and Reps have each had the White House for 40 years. Under Dems, $10,000 in the S&Pindex would have grown to just over $300,000, average growth of 8.9%. Under Reps, $10,000 would have grown to $51,000. IncludingHoover, it's only $11,000. This from Smart Money , the Wall Street Journal magazine, not a liberal rag.
Let’s remember how we got into this mess. It took the USA 204 years to run up a debt of $1trillion, and then about $3trillion was added by Reagan and BushSr. BushJr ran up $5.5trillion in just 8 years, and did it with a RepublicanCongress for 6 of his 8years ( and about all he had to show for that debt was richer rich people, a poorer MiddleClass and a lot of dead US soldiers). So about 75% of the debt for our entire 233-yr history was run up in just 20 GOPyears! Clinton?He gaveBush what Bushhimself called “surpluses-as-far-as-the-eye-can- see."

LOOK at facts, not propaganda about GOP fiscal responsibility:

http://www.skymachines.com/US-National-Debt-Per- Capita-Percent-of-GDP-and-by-Presidental-Term.ht m

Supply-side GOP economics hasn't worked. It's been a disaster. Genuine Conservatism-- stay out of wars, stay out of debt, stay out of people's bedrooms--that is all gone from the GOP. Barry Goldwater must be turning over in his grave.
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FALCON72
You can see the truth in every mirror.
12:23 PM on 09/28/2010
Very good analysis......F & F!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
den1953
The best politicians are for free!
09:17 AM on 09/28/2010
The Republican Party can not project anything good about the Obama administration that would go against all the anti Obama projections the republican have to spout out. How can Republicans con the general public about good things in the economy the manifesto calls for doom and gloom until November 2. After the election the republicans will be back out in Public in full force glowing with self worth about how electing the Republicans is bringing this nation back to prosperity even if it is untrue. Remember all those big cardboard checks in those photo ops when the stimulus checks were giving out in home districts, you know with the Republicans holding the checks and taking credit while b*tcing in Washington !
09:11 AM on 09/28/2010
you attribute the rise to obama -------the collapse under bush is the story ----

in wall street parlance it is called """"""shaking out the weak hands""""""

it is all part of the grand scheme called ""the fleecing of america""""
09:48 AM on 09/28/2010
The GOP Grand Scheme actually includes a long-term plan to End Social Security. It's called "Starve the Beast", and if you Google the term, it'll tell you how they want to run up debt to the point where they can justify ending Social Security. They've done a heckuva job with the part about running up the debt.
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Welib
Peace on Earth!
01:00 PM on 09/28/2010
Well of course we attribute the rise to Obama.  It certainly wasn't his fault nor was the Dems that we have this bankruptcy.  The GOP spent 5.7 trillion dollars and they did it before the Dems took Congress. 

The Repubs refuse to allow Mr. Obama to spend money here, on our people and on our country.  They're trying to make us crash again so they can blame it on Obama.

The Repubs were handed the best economy we've had in our history and turned it into the worst economy in our history.