Republicans Are on a Different Planet, Posing Problems Into 2009

George Bush's approval rating among Democrats is 1%. Among Republicans it's 67%. And among Independents it's 14%, according to the American Research Group poll last April. Every other poll shows substantially the same partisan disparity. News outlets talk about Bush's approval levels approaching "Nixonian" levels, but they shy away from acknowledging the obvious -- that the GOP has become marginalized from the American mainstream.

George Bush's Job Approval
CBS News: Democrats 12%. Independents 22%, Republicans 55%
Rasmussen: Democrats 11%, Independents 28%, Republicans 70%.
Gallup: Democrats 7%. Independents 26%, Republicans 60%

Disapproval of Bush's Job Performance
ARG: Democrats 95%. Independents 78%, Republicans 27%
CBS News: Democrats 87%. Independents 67%, Republicans 29%
Fox News: Democrats 82%. Independents 63%, Republicans 28%

As we begin to deal with the failures of the past eight years, will the political landscape be defined by a permanent Democratic majority and permanent Republican obstructionism? Democrats and Independents are on the same page; Republicans are on a different planet. Literally. Less than half of all Republicans believe there is solid evidence of global warming, compared to 84% of Democrats and 75% of Independents, according to a recent Pew poll. Republicans still support Bush's handling of the economy and believe that we should stay in Iraq until "we complete the mission."

Approval of Bush's Handling of the Economy
ARG: Democrats 1%, Independents 15%, Republicans 65%.

Respondents who say we should leave Iraq within a year of sooner:
Rasmussen: Democrats 89%, Independents 60%, Republicans 30%.

Respondents who say we should stay Iraq to complete the mission:
Rasmussen: Democrats 8%, Independents 34%, Republicans 66%.

Why did Republicans become so estranged from the rest of us? Because they still listen to the lying crackpots who got us into this mess. Facts never seem to discredit the likes of Charles Krauthammer or Fred Barnes because, as Arianna details in her book, the mainstream media still treats them with undeserved respect.

So David Brooks could offer up the same old nonsense in a different wrapping last Friday. "Newt Gingrich wrote a highly influential piece this week in Human Events, Brooks told The NewsHour,"where he said you can run that kind of event, that kind of [traditional Republican] campaign. [But] we know it does not work." What would work? Gingrich's "Nine Acts of Real Change That Could Restore the GOP Brand," which included:
"Repeal the gas tax for the summer,"
"Declare English the official language of government,"
"Overhaul the census and cut its budget radically," and
"Remind Americans that judges matter."

This is what Gingrich calls real change. And this is what David Brooks deems to be highly influential. Last year Gingrich told Fortune, "I am seeking to create a movement to win the future by offering a series of solutions so compelling and so deeply drawn upon the American people that if the American people say I have to be president, it will happen." Which is more stunning, his grandiosity or his intellectual feebleness?

Republican spokesmen not only get indulged by the mainstream, they have a sanctuary in their own cable network, which sends the message that the other side is not to be believed. As a Pew survey noted last August, "being a Republican and a Fox viewer are related to negative opinions of the mainstream media." Gingrich appears on Fox News almost every other day. And only 41% of Republicans have a favorable view of national newspapers, versus 79% of Democrats.

Though the Republican party keeps losing support, Fox News holds on to its viewers. And since those viewers are older, they are more likely to show up at the polls. Historically, turnout has been more reliable among older voters than with any other segment. About 75% of Brit Hume's viewers or Bill O'Reilly's viewers are outside of the 25-54 age range coveted by advertisers. (I assume that few of the non-25-54 viewers are younger than 25. Most young people get their news from the internet.)

The GOP seems incapable of reforming itself. Its base is in deep denial. So-called moderate Republicans -- John Sununu, Norm Coleman, Gordon Smith -- are the ones with the dimmest prospects for reelection. In any event, the moderates have proved to be spineless and ineffectual, as we saw when Arlen Specter declined ask Alberto Gonzales to swear under oath, and when Susan Collins refused to subpoena the White House when investigating Katrina. And of course, there's John McCain, who doubled down on the Bush tax cuts and on the Bush surge. He opposed opportunities for bipartisanship when he rejected the Baker-Hamilton Commission recommendations, and when he rejected Senator Webb's bill on veterans' benefits.

McCain and the Republican leadership remain wedded to Gingrich's last-man-standing style of politics, which sacrifices the greater good for the sake of making the other side, i.e. Congress, look bad. That approach has been largely effective, in the sense that disapproval of Congress is consistent across party lines.

Congressional Job Approval
Fox News: Democrats 20%. Independents 27%, Republicans 22%

"Congress is doing a good or excellent job"
Rasmussen: Democrats 18%. Independents 10%, Republicans 10%

In 2009, when we have a new president and Democratic majorities in Congress, we will be able to confront the Bush legacy and deal with our problems. But there's every reason to expect that Americans will be in a recriminatory mood. Irrespective of blame, the cold facts are that the U.S. Army has been substantially destroyed, Social Security has been bankrupted, Iran's influence in Iraq will expand as U.S troops are forced to withdraw, the mortgage crisis will not be over, economic competition from China and India will accelerate, and global warming will trigger more humanitarian crises. And Republicans are very effective in stirring up resentment and in thwarting compromise. This is what Gingrich's Republican revolution was all about.

Despite all the talk about the GOP hearing a wake-up call, we should expect more of the same. Remember, the McCain campaign consults with the White House and receives advice from the new political analyst at Fox News, Karl Rove.

Comments

[ranchobob]

Here's what you all need to face.
it's tribal.
The two main tribes, whether called Democrats and Republicans, or Liberals and Conservatives, are virtually living in different realities.
The fact that McCain who is now just a doddering, ranting, two-faced liar is the presumptive candidate of the Republicans is living proof of the theory.
In one of the painfully embarrassing Bush-Kerry debates in '04 Bush threw up his hands in bemused disgust and called him a "flip-flopper".
Has anyone given us a count of McCain's dervish-like set of 180's on almost everything?
The fact that people in such numbers like, admire, and or approve Bush is irrefutable evidence that is no longer about thought. It's about the primary genetic imperative - "we must destroy the other."
Any reasonable person would say this has been one of the worst, ineffectual, corrupt, lying, constitution shredding, fiscally mad administrations ever.
But tribalism is not about reason.

[julieeiluj]

That is because republicans are inherently dishonest, greedy, and at times murderous thugs who simply do not care about anyone who is not well to do, and they certainly do not care about the planet we live on.

[InDudeMood]

It's still a question, I'm afraid, if the Democrats will capitalize. Will they stand up and be counted, or just continue more of the same Republican-lite, spineless, wimpy, muddled message. It isn't enought to "not be Republican"... they need to define what they stand for. Sorry to say, I can't tell anymore. There is an unprecedented coalition to be built, for a man (or woman) to stand up for the country instead of big business. Will we see that person? My hopes are dwindling.
Many conservatives (the real ones, not the neocon drones) are saying the GOP has left them. In similar fashion, the Dems have ignored me. I'm a hard working, white-collar MBA with kids. How about tackling just the simplest of issues: fiscal responsibility with our tax dollars? For just a start? Please?
Obama could really nail the GOP to the wall if he started talking about our bloated government, the $135 million per day wasted in Iraq, the pork and utter lack of respect for hard working American's tax dollars being spent in a way that's an insult to drunken sailors on leave.

[UnbiasView]

"Obama could really nail the GOP to the wall if he started talking about our bloated government"

No he couldn't, not when he is talking about expanding government social programs and increasing the overall size.

"the pork and utter lack of respect for hard working American's tax dollars being spent in a way that's an insult to drunken sailors on leave"

Problem being there that Obama's name is tied to millions of $$$ in earmarks, McCain's is tied to $0 in earmarks.

[UnbiasView]

I wish for once they would ask this question that defines liberals these days:

Do you believe you can spend your money better than the government can?

100% Yes from Republicans

1% Yes from Democrats

[ImmanuelGoldstein]

That depends on what you are talking about.
For example: on the matter of national defense, having the pentagon buy an F-22 Raptor or Bradley APC is certainly better than anything I could buy myself.

Likewise on the matter of health care. Spreading the risk of disease amond a risk pool is advantageous for the participants. A governement health care system alows the creation of larger risk pools than anything the private sector can do, which is why countries with single payer systems achieve better outcomjes with less money, in some cases with as little as half the amount per capita on health care as we do.

The entire internet is the result of a governemnt research program. I doubt I could have spent the money for that better myself.

So as a point of mathematical,economic , and technological fact there are definitely situations the government CAN spend my money better than I can.

[UnbiasView]

I am talking about the individual level and the feeling of entitlements that has grown in this country, people all over this website are screaming for the government to fix their problems when in reality you can fix your problems yourself with just a little work.

[izAriver]

You are so funny. So, where did you get these stats? Also, do you know the definition of "bias" or "unbiased"? It does not appear that you do.

[UnbiasView]

The stats are imaginary, I just am going by the entitlement liberals on this website who thinks if Obama gets elected all their problems will be solved or if the Dems control the senate their every need will be met.

[ranchobob]

The myopic flaw in your cliché, and poorly thought out argument is this.
Yes I can spend my money better than the government at Circuit City or Target, but when comes to building roads, schools, water treatment facilities, etc....
here's the tricky part.
We as citizens of a common territory - a people - a nation - we pool our resources, and then we ELECT people to administer those funds for the general good. (that means not for the profit of a few)
it's called 'cooperation" it's also called "society"
When you and Grover Nordquist have shrunk the government and drowned it in the bath tub, we can all be poisoned by unregulated food manufacturers, and killed in crashes of planes owned by unregulated airlines. Sure free market forces will make that airline less competitive but what if your mom was on that plane? I guess that"s just the price of doing business.

[UnbiasView]

"killed in crashes of planes owned by unregulated airlines"

Bad example, planes are crashing frequently because they are unregulated?

Maybe its just me but I would think that would be bad for business.

[TheNewHampshireLiberal]

"So-called moderate Republicans -- John Sununu".

Sununu has an almost prefect Bu$hco voting record. In fact, the only time he has oposed the administration on anything was when he thought the business record keeping requirements in (un)patriot act II was "too burdensome for small business".

The only moderate thing about Sununu is that he isn't a visible cheerleader for Bu$hco.

I'm looking forward to voting against him this fall.

[LouisPWu]

Why couch the argument in Democrat/Republican terms? The real divide is between progressives and conservatives. At the bottom lies a psychological difference: Most conservatives are Authoritarians - most progressives aren't. Most conservatives can be described as having an external locus of control. Most progressives enjoy an internal locus of control. These are basic personality differences that can be see developing in early childhood. We grow up to be progressives or conservatives, and the political gulf between the two camps continues to grow ever wider.

[Rescisco]

"Why did Republicans become so estranged from the rest of us?" Actually, they have been estranged from reality for forty-four years and in control of the national agenda for the last twenty-eight years. The damage is likely permanent. The Democrats surrendered long ago and have basically forgotten who they were once upon a time. Perhaps times are finally ripe for a new progressive alternative. Just as likely, the "partys" are simply over.

[UnbiasView]

Everyone is estranged from far left liberals, Democrats are normal people and not that much different than anyone else.

[ImmanuelGoldstein]

Since according to Republicans, eveyone who thinks that Iraq isn't just hunky dory is practically a communist.

Gee than makes about 2/3 of the country commies! The country is a lot farther left than I thought.

[Rescisco]

There have been no "far left liberals" since 1972. Democrats who have voted Republican have done so for reasons having nothing to do with the issues that matter most. Republicans, beginnimg with the "Southern Strategy" in the 1970's and the false "values" debate beginning in the 80's have successfully appealed to prejudice as a tactic to distract us from substance, especially where economic self-interest is concerned. Turns out you can fool most of the people most of the time.

[JTyroler]

One of the reasons that some working class people vote for Republicans is that the Republicans are always promising less taxes - even if those lower taxes are for other people. How many people who are no where close to having to worry about paying estate taxes saying that we need to get rid of the "death tax".

We live in a nation that teaches everyone that they can grow up to be wealthy and/or powerful, and, even though there isn't that much upward mobility, we tend to still believe that we will be the one person who does move up in the world. That's one of the reasons that so many people buy lottery tickets.

[UnbiasView]

"Republicans are always promising less taxes - even if those lower taxes are for other people"

The only good thing Bush did, give me 3% more of my money back which will be going away in 2010. If anyone ever thinks that the Bush tax cuts only help the rich, you are a moron . . . do some research.

I am a firm believer that I can spend my money better than the government can. Everytime taxes are raised that mean the government thinks they can spend your money better than you can.

[Davwbaird]

Its hard for birds of feathers to shed their feathers. And I agree. My recent interactions with republicans in my business reveal they don't value education of our children, nor universal health care and they love war and could give a rats fart less about our brave troops dying in the hell of Iraq and they know how to say 9/11 a lot. I don't want their business.

[KarateKid]

I ask my business colleagues (we are in the educational publishing business) why they vote Republican when it is so clear they are anti education and bad for business? They don't have a rational answer other than to rip the Democratic party for taxing us to death. I mention how a Republican Congress spent us into the 22nd century, creating a deficit our grandchildren will inherit, and they simply shrug. In the meantime, supplemental education publishers are going out of business, resulting in loss of jobs.

I am as incredulous at their lack of cognitive thinking as you are.

[UnbiasView]

WTF are you takling about?

Everyone values the education of our children and if the government valued our children's education they would dump the department of education and give tax credits if you want to send your children to private schools. If that was the case the public schools would be forced to compete in a real world where results matter.

Universal health care I don't value at all, I don't believe in entitlements adn believe that the system needs to be reformed but please name me 1 efficiently run government program and then we'll talk about handing the keys over to Washington.

Many Republicans want to end the war in Iraq but we also see that there can't just be a pullout.

[MinerSam]

Dearest David,

You are psychic. As, in response Hillary Supporters considering McCain (Delusional that the problem is the administration and not the Republican Potty), I was *just about* to check Republican Approval rating for him to make my argument to them(suspected it went from 75% lately to 60)..

Also hoped you would set Krugman straight on the impact of traders gas prices. CURRENTLY HUGE

That said: I do not agree that FOX is something set apart when it comes to the Democratic Primary

I am Media Trained, and a Primary Source (C-SPAN, CNBC etc live 20/7) AND SEEN THE DISREPORTING When the Republicans were majority PLUS current CASCADES OF ERONEOUS AND PROJECTIONS about who Hillary is (while promoting Obama the phony yuppie race card kid)

SO ther is a SINGLE thing I agree wAmerican Fascist Republican Party BASE: that the Main Steam Media IS FULL OF BUNK. And "CONVENTIONLA WISDOM" (especially the so called "progressive" view of who Hillary) IS A CLUMP OF CALCIFIED DISRPORTING OVER TIME. And if you don't catch it catch live you can consider yourself brainwashed.

To Arianna: (RE: interview on Charlie Rose)...Bill Clinton tried to pass an Infrastructure Bill (WHICH would have Repaired the Levees for 14B)..your then GNEWT inc filibustered it!

I worked on the 1st generations of products that connect computers ot each other. (email 27 years)ONLY sources I trust: You, Craig Crawford, and David Brock.

[noliberals]

He already has Check it Out

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May12.html

[kavan]

Well, if they like him so much, they could all go to Texas with him next January! I'll chip in gas money!

[Thabit]

at current prices you might have to take out a second morgage on your home to pay that much gas

[kavan]

Well worth it, if they'd stay!

[KillTheMessenger]

Adult science illiteracy can not be helped. The neurons necessary to map reality to a logically coherent map in the brain have to be either wired in ones youth or they will never be there.

In the same sense magical thinking can not be cured. A person who is used to substitute group-think for individual sanity checks will not one day wake up and admit that everything they have been told in their lives was a steaming pile of...

The one and only way for this country out of this mess is to out-grow and out-die it. The hope is that the science literate youth can, eventually, out-number the brain dead boomer generation. Given the state of the public school system, that hope, however, is fading.

[CanuckforObama]

He he. I have had that thought myself. At some point, we just have to wait for a new generation to completely seize the reins. May take quite a while for all the bigotry and superstition to die along with the last generation to have really had those ideas drilled into them from birth (the boomers). Nevertheless, we will prevail someday, perhaps in 20 years or so. Hopefully it won't be too late till then.

[ImmanuelGoldstein]

Pusillanimous.
I'm not big on tossing a $10 word into every other sentence. My word choice is more Hemingway than Buckley. But there is one word that would bring a smile to Buckley's face, wherever he is now.
Pusillanimous.
I can't think of any other word that quite fits Ginrich's new contract on America. Nothing else quite conveys the essence of how insipid, ineffectual, small-minded it is.
Pusillanimous.
And the worse part of it is that Ginrich, of all Republicans seems acutely of just how much trouble the party is really in. He labors to save it and brings forth this mouse.

http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?print=yes&id=26376

This is going to save the Republicans in November? The dimwitted gas tax holiday? Overhaul the census? Remind people 'judges matter"? Yeah boy, I see the people surrounding the White House with their pitchforks and right now demanding that damned census bureau be held to account!!!!

'The Change You Deserve" indeed! "From the mess WE created"!

'm gonna make this as simple as I possibly can. For the health of American politics and society and indeed the safety of our world.
THE REPUBLICAN PARTY MUST BE DESTROYED!

Fortunately it doesn't look like this is going to be too hard.

[runswithscissors]

You're "misunderestimating" the stupidity of the GOP base. They will be whipped into a frenzy over this, for no other reason than the fact that they're being told to do so.

[BillZBubb]

Your article is right on the money. And it poses a question which you didn't address: presumptive Democratic nominee Obama has made "working with the other side" a centerpiece of his governing promise. When the right wing is so entrenched and so opposed to common sense and needed compromise, how much "change you can believe in" can one really believe in?

I can't figure out if Obama is being deceptive or is just naive. Anyway, the right wing will eat him alive.

[LABC]

whatever...I think Barack Obama has a little more brains and backbone than he is given credit for.

[egal]

"Working with the other side" doesn't mean working wih self-serving idiots, it means working with people who have legitimate but different viewpoints. Hence the dismissal of the gas tax as the ploy it is rather than pretending to seek a middle ground when what we might otherwise assume IS the "other side" insists upon stupidity.

[RobtBrock]

Well, unless a quite different House is elected and unless the Dems pick up most of the Senate races...Obama wouldn't have many across the aisle to work with.

[pbfishtaco]

Whatever Republicans are left after November will fall into two categories; those that want to hang on to their diminished role and start to reform what's left of their party, and Joe Lieberman. I don't think there will be enough of them to fire any meaningful volleys, but hey who knows, we could still let them sneak in the back door (apologies to Sen. Craig.)