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David H. Young

David H. Young

Posted January 20, 2009 | 05:30 PM (EST)

A 'Bi-Unilateral' Ceasefire


It is still unclear if the 'bi-unilateral' ceasefire will hold, but if Jerusalem is actually right where it wants to be (having secured vapid promises from Washington to help allies in the region crack down on smuggling), then it doesn't seem like much has changed, nor that much was even supposed to change. All the rhetoric, tactics and strategy emanating from of Jerusalem over the last three weeks seemed to point to something much more resolute than a unilateral ceasefire. It seemed obvious that Israel had had enough with all things 'unilateral', like the Gaza withdrawal in 2005, which Jerusalem now condemns as a terribly weak decision.

Equally bizarre, Jerusalem's effort-detailed by Mark-to play Hamas' leaders and their mediators off of each other seemed to demonstrate that Israel hoped to force its enemy into making painful concessions at the negotiating table, as is frequently the custom in violent conflicts. And even if Jerusalem didn't want to "legitimize" Hamas with negotiations, Israel seemed likely to use the conflict to bind Egypt to...well, anything. Even officials in Cairo were caught off guard by Israel's sudden indifference to securing (even the facade of) a short-term "lull" in violence. After all, if "enough" really "is enough," why are we seeing a resignation in Jerusalem to Hamas' "nihilism" and the status quo? To drive the point home, the head of Shin Bet has conceded that Hamas will be rearmed in just a few months.

The answer, remarkably, is that the Israeli government is playing its own population as much as the rest of us. Losing 10 Israeli soldiers just so Jerusalem could 'make a statement' seems a bit pointless-though, admittedly, the statement contains more than 1300 Palestinian footnotes. But why, if Israel has now re-established its deterrence, would Jerusalem feel so hopelessly impotent as to resign to the previous state of affairs, minus a few Hamas lieutenants? With this outcome, Israel is left only with the knowledge that when Hamas wants to fire rockets/mortars in the future, the militant group will expect Israel to unleash hell in response. And if Hamas attacks anyways in three months, because the blockade is still in place? What then? How will Jerusalem re-explain this latest operation, or the next one?