Advice for the Candidates: Let's talk Romney/Perry in Iowa

This is no longer a name recognition contest; this is the real deal. Rick Perry appeals to conservative voters and he is electable both in the caucus/primary process and in the general. But he faces a problem: will he peak too soon?
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Welcome to the political horse race: the game changes rapidly.

Rick Perry is soaring. Gallop and PPP both have him in the front of national polls. He is also in front of a recent Iowa PPP poll.

This is no longer a name recognition contest; this is the real deal. Perry appeals to conservative voters and he is electable both in the caucus/primary process and in the general. But he faces a problem: will he peak too soon?

Romney is laying low, which is exactly what he should be doing. And he has enough money to hit Perry hard, should he need to, come closer to the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary.

Here are the scenarios as they stand today:

1.Perry peaks too soon: Bachmann wins Iowa, Romney wins New Hampshire, and Romney wins the nomination.

2.Perry peaks too soon: Romney wins Iowa, Romney wins New Hampshire, and Romney wins the nomination.

3.Perry does not peak too soon: Perry wins Iowa, Romney wins New Hampshire, the contest is fought in South Carolina (and possibly beyond) for the nomination.

4.Sarah Palin's instincts and internal polling shows that she can have an impact on the race and possibly even win the nomination so she enters. What if she starts taking the lead in Iowa?

5.Perry/Romney/Bachmann/Palin win in Iowa, Huntsman has a surprise win in New Hampshire, and the contest is fought in South Carolina and possibly even beyond (this does not include Bachmann, as she cannot win beyond Iowa). Am I delusional? He is barely even polling! Weirder things have happened. Remember, politics changes on a dime.

It seems hard for Mitt Romney to lose the nomination at this point. But not all Republicans are enamored with him. And money does carry huge weight. But it is not everything in this horse race almost beyond belief.

Let me know your own thoughts below. You can also visit www.DavidHelfenbein.com or www.AdvicefortheCandidates.com.

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