THE BLOG
11/06/2012 08:46 am ET Updated Jan 06, 2013

Welcome to Election Day 2012, The Helfenbein Guide ("'The Bean' Guide")

WELCOME TO ELECTION DAY 2012, THE HELFENBEIN GUIDE ("'THE BEAN' GUIDE"):

ALL SWING STATES ARE BELOW. THE LIKELY OUTCOMES, AS PREDICTIONS, ARE AS FOLLOWS:

a. FLORIDA [ROMNEY]
b. IOWA [OBAMA]
c. MICHIGAN [OBAMA]
d. NEVADA [OBAMA]
e. NORTH CAROLINA [ROMNEY]
f. VIRGINIA [ROMNEY]
g. WISCONSIN [OBAMA]

IF YOU ASSUME ALL OF THE ABOVE PREDICTIONS TO BE CORRECT, THEN CHECK OFF THE NUMBERS BELOW AS THEY OCCUR AND YOU MAY BE ABLE TO CALL IT AN EARLY NIGHT.

1. THERE ARE ONLY FOUR SWING STATES TOMORROW NEEDED IN ORDER TO WIN: NEW HAMPSHIRE, PENNSYLVANIA, OHIO AND COLORADO.

2. WHOMEVER WINS NEW HAMPSHIRE NEEDS EITHER AN OHIO OR PENNSYLVANIA WIN. IN OTHER WORDS, THE SAME CANDIDATE WHO WINS NEW HAMPSHIRE MUST WIN EITHER PENNSYLVANIA OR OHIO IN ORDER TO WIN* (*this is necessary not sufficient; this does not mean that the candidate wins).

3. IF ROMNEY WINS NEW HAMPSHIRE, HE ONLY NEEDS OHIO OR PENNSYLVANIA TO WIN. IN OTHER WORDS, HE WILL WIN IF HE WINS NEW HAMPSHIRE + JUST ONE OF THESE TWO STATES.

4. IF ROMNEY LOSES NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT WINS EITHER OHIO OR PENNSYLVANIA, THEN HE MUST ALSO WIN COLORADO IN ORDER TO WIN THE ELECTION.

5. IF OBAMA WINS NEW HAMPSHIRE, THEN HE MUST WIN OHIO OR PENNSYLVANIA IN ORDER TO WIN. IF HE WINS BOTH, HE WINS THE ELECTION.

6. IF OBAMA WINS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND OHIO OR PENNSYLVANIA, HE MUST WIN COLORADO ALSO TO WIN THE ELECTION.

THIS ELECTION IS POLLING INCREDIBLY CLOSE IN THE POPULAR VOTE AND ALSO IN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE. EVERY VOTE MAKES A DIFFERENCE.

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