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GSPM Presidential Horse Race: Split Decision on 'Swing" States

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The George Washington University Graduate School of Political Management Survey Finds "Swing States" a Split Decision for President Obama and Governor Romney.

Yesterday, the George Washington University Graduate School of Political Management (GSPM) released the 14th installment of its weekly Horse Race poll, which found that President Barack Obama bested Governor Romney for the first time in four weeks.

Full survey results for the week ending Nov. 4, are as follows:

Rate the prior week's performance (1 -- Very Ineffective, 5 -- Very Effective)
Mitt Romney's PERSONAL PERFORMANCE as a Presidential candidate 3.37
Barack Obama's PERSONAL PERFORMANCE as a Presidential candidate 3.63
Mitt Romney's presidential CAMPAIGN OPERATION 3.37
Barack Obama's presidential CAMPAIGN OPERATION 3.56

Which presidential campaign "won" the previous week?

Romney Campaign: 30 percent
Obama Campaign: 58 percent
Neither: 08 percent
Both: 04 percent
Don't know: 00 percent

Which candidate will win the following states?

Colorado -- Romney (47 percent)
Florida -- Romney (81 percent)
Iowa -- Obama (56 percent)
Nevada -- Obama (77 percent)
New Hampshire -- Romney (48 percent)
Ohio -- Obama (63 percent)
Virginia -- Romney (55 percent)
Wisconsin -- Obama (57 percent)

As you see it, what was the pivotal moment of the campaign in the previous week (please describe in your own words)?

Select Comments

Democrat Insider: "The pivotal moment of the week was how both campaigns reacted to Hurricane Sandy and how President Obama effectively utilized the powers of the federal government in responding to a natural disaster of epic proportions."

Republican Insider: "I think the pivotal moment of the campaign was Hurricane Sandy. It refocused the candidates on the important things and at least allowed us to take a break from the negative ads, etc. They each handled the situation appropriately and took the opportunity to remind Americans how we rally in difficult times."

Non-Affiliated Insider: "President Obama and Gov. Christie visiting the hurricane-devastated areas in New Jersey."

What is the first thing the winner should do after the election is decided (Please indicate whether the advice is being directed to OBAMA or ROMNEY at the beginning of your comment)?

Select Comments

Democrat Insider: OBAMA -- "Seek bipartisan solutions by reaching out to political opponents in the House of Representatives. There will be opportunities for responsible governance with the sequestration looming on the horizon."

Republican Insider: ROMNEY -- "Start working with Congress to craft health care legislation to replace Obamacare."

Democrat Insider: OBAMA -- "Speak to the public about the next four years, to re-assure them and make clear that he wants to work with Republicans. However, they have to also demonstrate a willingness to compromise and work with him."

Republican Insider: ROMNEY -- "Talk immediately with Senate and House Democrats about fiscal cliff proposals."

The GSPM Horse Race is an aggregated, weekly measure of the opinions of graduate students, alumni, full-time faculty and adjunct professors at GSPM. The results are not intended to be representative of any larger population. The responses have been weighted to ensure that they are balanced politically, by equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans. The comments provided are from survey participants. The survey results are released weekly and are available at gspm.edu.

  Obama Romney
Obama Romney
332 206
Obama leading
Obama won
Romney leading
Romney won
Popular Vote
33 out of 100 seats are up for election. 51 are needed for a majority.
Democrat leading
Democrat won
Holdover
Republican leading
Republican won
Democrats* Republicans
Current Senate 53 47
Seats gained or lost +2 -2
New Total 55 45
* Includes two independent senators expected to caucus with the Democrats: Angus King (Maine) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vt.).
All 435 seats are up for election. 218 are needed for a majority.
Democrat leading
Democrat won
Republican leading
Republican won
Democrats Republicans
Seats won 201 234
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