The George Washington University Graduate School of Political Management Survey Finds that Gov. Mitt Romney's Campaign Wins Week 5.
Sixty-Two Percent See Republican National Convention as Effective in Communicating its Message to America
On Tuesday, Sept. 4, the George Washington University Graduate School of Political Management (GSPM) released the fifth installment of its weekly Horse Race poll, which found that Gov. Mitt Romney's (R) campaign bested President Barack Obama's and entered the week of Sept. 3 with the most momentum.
Top findings for the week ending Sunday, Sept. 2 include:
• Momentum shifted back to Romney campaign with the Republican National Convention taking place in Tampa, Florida.
• Fifty-three percent of insiders thought GOP House Budget Committee Chairman Rep. Paul Ryan speech was effective. Thirty percent thought it was not effective. Eleven percent thought it was neutral.
• Sixty-two percent of insiders thought Romney's convention speech was effective; Only twenty-four percent thought it was ineffective. Thirteen percent thought it was neutral.
• Ann Romney scored the highest among insiders for her speech having a significant positive impact with a 1.53; Condoleezza Rice ranked second with a 1.79. Marco Rubio ranked third with a 2.01 (1=significant positive impact; 5=significant negative impact)
Full survey results for the week ending Sunday, Sept. 2 are as follows:
Rate the prior week's performance (1- Very Ineffective, 5 - Very Effective)
Mitt Romney's PERSONAL PERFORMANCE as a Presidential candidate 4.02
Barack Obama's PERSONAL PERFORMANCE as a Presidential candidate 3.14
Mitt Romney's presidential CAMPAIGN OPERATION 3.59
Barack Obama's presidential CAMPAIGN OPERATION 3.26
Which presidential campaign "won" the previous week?
Romney Campaign -- 74 percent
Obama Campaign -- 11 percent
Neither -- 13 percent
Both -- 02 percent
Don't know -- 00 percent
What was the pivotal moment of the campaign in the previous week?
Democrat Insider: "The convention was a disaster. Overall, the net-effect was nil, which is a huge missed opportunity for Romney. From Christie talking about himself to Clint Eastwood and his chair, the outcome of the convention is not what Romney needed and that has shown through the negligible post-convention "bounce" in the polling."
Republican Insider: "The Republicans pulled off a successful convention that helped energize the party and the Romney campaign for the final stretch. The Democrats will obviously be looking to do the same this coming week."
Democrat Insider: "A solid GOP Convention successfully framed Romney defensively from the charges levied by the Obama campaign in recent weeks. Short of the Eastwood incident, it was a solid presentation for American voters who are just now starting to tune in to the 2012 campaign."
Republican Insider: "Ann Romney's speech was the pivotal moment last week. It really sent the 'humanize Mitt' campaign into overdrive."
Democrat Insider: "A mistake-ridden convention detracts from Romney's best speech ever. Ryan went from truth teller to liar, and Eastwood stole Romney's spotlight. Below average poll bounce for Romney confirms the ineffectiveness."
Independent Insider: "The Republican convention allowed Romney to show a more human side, which was badly needed, in his speech with the story of his parents. However, it was overshadowed by Clint Eastwood's odd performance and won't have the impact it could have had it stood alone."
What advice would you give either of the presidential campaign's based on the performance of last week (please indicate either Obama or Romney at the beginning of your answer)?
Democrat Insider: ROMNEY -- "Focus on the sluggish economy and the lack of jobs created by Obama's administration during the first term. Every moment spent on other subjects is a moment in which you are off message."
Republican Insider: OBAMA -- "Hit Romney back hard from the convention, try to reinforce his negatives and be humble. Give a good speech and acknowledge your errors while promising more. That should neuter some of the tougher GOP attacks."
Democrat Insider: OBAMA -- "Seize the opportunity that the Republicans convention has no lingering effect and have a fantastic convention. Use this opportunity to remind America why they voted for you four years ago and how that hasn't changed."
Republican Insider: ROMNEY -- "The country is conservative, but also competent, so give them your conservative answers. The election is yours to lose, but don't think voters will vote for you if they are unsure of your plan."
Democrat Insider: OBAMA -- "Give the best speech of your life and run on your record. Mention the difficult times as well as the difficult political environment, but run on your successes. A healthy auto industry, healthcare, equal pay for women and women's rights in general. Don't get caught up in the 'disappointing first term,' story the GOP is so eager to sell. Also, please put a rubber ball in Biden's mouth. Please, as a Democrat I'm begging you."
Republican Insider: OBAMA -- "Keep the differences about policy and vision for the future of America. Stay away from talking about his record or personal attacks. Those may backfire if they come off too strong or aggressive."
Independent Insider: ROMNEY -- "If Ann Romney is serving as your surrogate for women, and you desperately need more women in your camp, you need to expand your view of women. Women serve as more than simply wives and mothers, and while addressing that is important, it is also necessary to demonstrate how you will help economically, with jobs, taxes, health care, etc."
The GSPM Horse Race is an aggregated, weekly measure of the opinions of graduate students, alumni, full-time faculty and adjunct professors at GSPM. The results are not intended to be representative of any larger population. The responses have been weighted to ensure that they are balanced politically, by equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans. The comments provided are from survey participants. The survey results are released weekly and are available on the GSPM websitehttp://gspm.edu.
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