Obama's Already Won

It's nine months until the election, seven months until the Democratic national convention, and four days until Super Tuesday. But already, it's clear that Barack Obama has won, at least in one key respect. Only he can now say that at some point, some day, he will be the Democratic presidential nominee.

It may happen in 2008. I'd still put his chances at less than 50-50, but he's rapidly approaching that mark; Clinton retains a slight lead, and is essentially running out the clock. Even if it doesn't happen this year, Obama will be the vice presidential nominee -- that is, if he wants it. Others make more sense for Hillary to pick, and she'll clearly try to do so; for all of the smiles last night, she'd surely prefer someone more pliable, subservient, and appreciative. And someone who'd appeal to a constituency that's actually in play, like border state moderates (James Webb for them) or Hispanics (Bill Richardson) But so great would the pressure be to pick Obama that she'd effectively have no choice.

Offer in hand, Obama can then handicap her chances against John McCain. If he thinks she'll win, he'll take the post, and become both vice president and heir apparent. If he thinks she'll lose, he'll run for the seasoning and exposure, or pass it up and save himself the tsouris; he'll be the heir apparent anyway. One way or another, then, Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee, whether in 2008, 2012, 2016, or 2020 (that is, assuming this country's tendency to knock off its most promising politicians doesn't repeat itself.) Since he's a young man (and has quit smoking) he can afford the wait.

Hillary Clinton might lead in delegates and in the national polls (for now) but she has no such guarantees. This year is her only shot, and she may not get even that. She's not even a good bet for number two; why would Obama assume all of her baggage? We don't yet know who won Super Tuesday. But in one real sense, Barack Obama has already won even more. A presidential nomination: it's not a bad thing to have in your pocket. Maybe that's why he's in such a good mood these days.

Comments

[Kane]

I like the idea that Obama is considered the underdog, and I like the notion that he doesn't have a chance against the inevitable force of the Clinton machine. I wouldn't have it any other way.

Something magical is in the air. You can taste it and feel it and breathe it and dream it. I don't want to jinx anthing by offering a state by state prediction, but I will predict that something very special is about to happen.

[DietrichMoody]

This post, which some have seen as condescending is really not in touch with reality. Someday?? We are at War sir, this is a post 9/11 world sir. We are in the Middle East and we went into a electable war. Like some , "pretend it's not happening" I believe Hillary needs Obama more than he needs her.

What the Clinton campaign, their ilk, and some in the MACHINE have done, to the parties disadvantage is they have assaulted us with every available weapon in their back dated campaign arsenal, its tired, condescending and divisive. Voters, will be paralyzed and numb with assaults once the nomination process happens, and they will be comatose too and have no energy to vote, by November. Your bad judgment on airing "suspect dirty laundry", about Hillary rival, Obama, is as bad as Hillary's judgment to go to war, her judgment to go to Florida the other day, and her judgment to bypass answers about National Security at todays debate. When this is all over your judgment would have zapped the energy right out of the Democrats, and made them too demoralized to go to the poles to vote for Hillary Clinton, if her VP isn't OBAMA.

With all of Hillary's experience, her actions have shown her Judgment to be suspect. But we are on a precipice, this war on terror, against islamic militancy, and terrorist in general This war is draining the economy, draining our resources, and killing 40-100 soldiers a month, with thousands of civilians killed monthly.

This war is going to intensify, sustain or demise. Hillary has shown her judgment to be enabling. I'm Sorry but the stakes are too high, to send a well meaning message to the world, that a woman is President, its noble but not in this Country's best interest right now. There are great woman who can be President. We need right judgment to steer us while shrewdly deflecting off our enemies.

[Wanod]

All,
Be carefull what you ask for...Bush was an agent of change and change we got. I'll put my money on Hillary, Obama can wait, like yall say he's young. There's so much mess that needs to be cleaned up, there's no time for on the job training, get real people Hillary is by far the best choice.

[vsign]

This could be the most exciting election in a long time. But I'm really worried, not excited, about the possible outcome. I used to think that I could not trust anyone over 30, because they must have sold out. Now I don't trust anyone under 30 to vote, because they must have sold out. Sold out? - sold out their ability to think and giving in to the media messages they carry around in their pockets like little red books.

This election is like no other - it is exposing the great generational divide. I dare say it might be greater than the racial or sexual divides.

Obama's message, for me, is not to hate the actions of our current leaders, Bush and the republicans, and win with the democratic party - but to hate the Clintons. Young people unite and do away with the old people!

[DeeperTruth]

Please see what is truly important. I would consider voting for Obama later, but he is not ready, or truly qualified to lead our country.

Although very well-educated, I am also in debt, and I really don't have money to back any campaign, but I stand for truth. And I am behind Hillary. Deep in my gut, I know without a doubt, that she is the most qualified, competent candidate we have to successfully govern our country.

Her administration would never have gone to war in Iraq. She thought that the threat of force was necessary for Saddam to comply with the weapon inspections.

I wish that she had voted against the war, but it is all so much more complicated than that.

The Clintons deserve much more respect, it is sickening how everyone blames them for everything and makes them their scapegoat.

Bill got too frustrated. He knows Hillary is much more qualified than Barack at this time. The Clintons know what it takes to run the country, and they know that Barack does not know how to at this time. Yet he gets away with saying that he would be perfect, but it is an illusion. Barack will make mistakes too, all leaders, and all Presidents do. An Obama administration would be slow and awkward getting to it's feet. They would have to learn all the ropes from scratch.

This is best demonstrated in the debates. Hillary is undeniably the most qualified and competent at this time. Obama doesn't really know what he's talking about too often. I have plenty of inspiration in my life. I don't want another inexperienced president. If there's anything I've learned in the last 7 years it's that speeches and rhetoric mean nothing, proven competence means everything.

I am inspired by the person who is truly qualified, and who has been so unfairly mistreated.

Hillary inspires me! True Proven Competency!

I just hope that truth and justice prevail, and we will not once again lose to an inaccurate understanding of the truth.

[FogBelter]

Obama wins when he is sworn in as President of the United States on the steps of the Capitol in January 2009 ...

and on that day, America wins as well.

[Jordanu12]

Obama can win this year...if Edwards endorses him. I'm in favor of an Obama/Edwards announced ticket before Super Tuesday - support it at WWW.DRAFTOBAMAEDWARDS.COM

[naschkatze]

If McCain is the Republican candidate, in spite of or contrary to what the pundits are saying about him being the hardest to defeat, I think the Democratic candidate will have a better than 50-50 chance of beating him. All one has to do is play the tape of him singing Bomb-bomb-bomb, bombbomb Iran, and the vaults are filled with material of Loose Cannon McCain losing it. However, I still doubt that McCain, Romney, Huckabee etc. will be the Republican nominee. So who do they have? I can't for the life of me think of anyone.

[Nutcase]

You're wrong David. Democrat or Republican, Obama or Clinton, the people have already lost. There are no real Democrats, no progressives left in the race.

cognito ergo populistae

[Irizzee]

I will say this, I'm tired of the rumor spreading that Hilary has more delegates than Barack...She doesn't, she may very well win this entire race yet(very distinct possibility) but all these pollsters are including Superdelegates, which would be fine except it's all guesswork since they can switch up until the convention, and because not all of them are as decided as the pollsters like to think they are in the know...As far as committed, defined delegates go, Barack has a slight lead of 18 I think

[SoldDowntheRiver]

Go ahead everybody, chain us to Hillary. If you do that, McCain will win in November and we'll be in Iraq for at least 6 more years. She's not electable, not because she's a woman but because she's Hillary Clinton. Come on people, don't you all have a bad taste in your mouths even thinking about electing another Clinton to the Presidency? Why don't we all just write in Jeb Bush?

[paixa3]

As an INDEPENDENT, I will not vote for either Billary or Obama.

EDWARDS 2008

[naschkatze]

Yes it's a risk for the Democrats to run either a woman or a black in November, but it is a risk they should take. It's part of what they stand for, for pity's sake (said as an independent). It's time for either a woman or a black president, but I just happen to feel that Clinton is not the right woman and Obama is the right black. How many more generations would it take to repeat his appeal to both races? He's perfect for the moment.

[Illinoisdan]

There is a Rip in the Fabric of our Society that widens with each passing day. The only way that we as American Citizens will be able to pull the fabric together and mend it is with the help of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents, it will take young and old alike pulling together, not in different directions. There is only one candidate running that can inspire all of the separate parts of this Union to function as a Union again, and that is Senator Obama. The difference between a successful Field General, and just a tactician is the ability to inspire his men to believe that he knows how best to defeat the enemy, and that with him in the lead, they can accomplish their mission. The General’s men have to be willing to follow him into battle against great odds. Senators Obama, Clinton, and Mc Cain are all political tacticians; only Senator Obama has the ability to inspire. Joe Scarboro on his morning show stated that his Republican friends would e-mail him after hearing Senator Obama speak, and say that they now believe. What we need at this time in our nations history is the inspiration to once again believe that “yes we can”! Senator Obama has the ability to bring out the voters, both young and old, to inspire us all to work together. Senator Clinton also will bring out the voters, but the Republicans will be inspired to work against her. Senator Mc Cain will cause Republican voters to stay home; he means more of the same failed misguided Bush policies. Only Senator Obama has the ability to bring together all sides to pull the Rip in our National Fabric together.

[DenverDem]

Do you really think that the Clintons will choose someone as VP who has superstar qualities??

They couldn't tolerate the day to day contrast.