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David Meerman Scott

David Meerman Scott

Posted: January 18, 2010 06:06 AM

Coakley v Brown: The Social Media Divide May Decide Election

What's Your Reaction:

A significant factor in putting Barack Obama in the White House was the brilliant social media marketing of the Obama for America campaign. The Obama campaign realized that social media was a primary importance, not an afterthought. The number of people the campaign reached on the Web was staggering: Millions friended Obama on Facebook and joined the MyBO social organizing site. By election day, Obama had nearly 4 times more Facebook supporters than McCain and twenty times more Twitter followers.

The Pew Internet & American Life Project April 2009 report The Internet's Role in Campaign 2008 says some 55 percent of all adults--and 74 percent of all Internet users--said they went online for news and information about the election or to communicate with others about the race.

So it's fascinating to watch Martha Coakley's campaign for U.S. Senate in Massachusetts basically ignore new media in favor of the old playbooks that elected Ted Kennedy to the seat.

Of course there is much more to the race: Politics and platforms and personal connections are important. But didn't Obama for America teach us that the Web has the power to push a candidate over the top? Obama also showed the importance of young people (whose communications of choice is digital).

Let's look at a few numbers. As I compare the morning before election day, @MarthaCoakley has 3,520 Twitter followers compared to @ScottBrownMA with 10,214 followers. Coakley counts 14,487 Facebook fans to Brown's 76,700 fans. Advantage Brown by more than three to one.

2010-01-18-CoakleyRally.JPG


Living in safe, secure blue state Massachusetts, I always envied those from Iowa and New Hampshire who got so much candidate face time in Presidential elections. Now that I've lived through a tightening race, forget it. The robocalls are crazy! I get a half dozen a day! And the television commercials! Don't get me started.

At the same time, why is social media ignored?

The event section on the Coakley site shows a dozen or so rallies and nearly one hundred phone bank events in the three days leading up to election day. Yet there are zero Tweetups and zero virtual events listed.

Massachusetts is a hotbed of information technology. People here are plugged in. Most of my friends don't even use the phone anymore except to call the plumber. It is a college town with young people who don't have landlines.

On Saturday I learned that President Obama was to rally for Coakley in Boston and wanted to go. But there was no mention of the event on her Twitter feed at all prior to the event. Nothing. What about telling fans first? Recall that Obama announced Joe Biden as his running mate via social networking tools like SMS and Twitter before he sent a press release to the media. Coakley seems to be on Twitter and Facebook as an afterthought, an item on a checklist. The Brown social media efforts seem much more active.

I did make it to the rally yesterday. It was the first time I had seen a sitting president speak live and I enjoyed it. Hoopla was generated. Television soundbites were secured. It seemed to be a success.

But wait. Look closer.

The event was held at Northeastern University and sponsored by the Student Democrats. Quick. How do college students communicate? Facebook and SMS of course! Yet these two forms of communications played absolutely no formal part in the rally. The brochure that was handed out had no web addresses or social media sites. At the rally, Coakley fans were asked to vote. They were asked to volunteer at phone banks. They were asked to talk to neighbors and friends.

But were the many college students in the crowd told to talk up the Coakley campaign on Facebook, the college student communications tool of choice? No. Were people at the rally asked to tweet? No. Were they asked to join Coakley's fan page? No.

The Coakley campaign is underestimating the importance of social media and the new rules of marketing and PR.

John McCain relied on what worked to elect George W. Bush and he lost mainly because of social media. Now Martha Coakley is relying on the playbook that elected Ted Kennedy and she may lose because of social media too.

 
 
 

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03:38 PM on 01/20/2010
The WordStream Internet Marketing Blog broke a related story nearly a week ago regarding the impact of social media on this senate race: http://www.wordstream.com/blog/ws/2010/01/14/ma-senate-race-poll-scott-brown-trounces-martha-coakley
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donasanya
01:35 PM on 01/19/2010
Coakley thought she had the campaign in the bag (much like Hillary did). She only started campaigning after it became obvious she would likely lose. A day late and most probably a dollar shot.
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bbrecht
"pray for the dead, fight like hell for the liv
10:25 AM on 01/19/2010
I have received quite a few notes via email asking for support for Coakley-- not from her campaign though. Well, it's a wake up call I guess. Democrats better learn how to organize.
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InternationalObserver
07:20 PM on 01/19/2010
Yup! If they lose this race its all over - the Republicans will have tasted blood and want more...
Who knew it could be over so fast for a Democrat Administration? I hope those 'Blue Dog' Dems who stalled healthcare reform choke on it...
10:13 AM on 01/19/2010
From my view, the one key difference between the best social media-driven campaigns and Coakley's is a passionate, plugged in base of supporters. Dean in 2004, Deval Patrick in Mass in 2006 and Barack Obama in 2008 all had this special ingredient. In fact, if Ted Kennedy were running for re-election, I'd argue he would have the same thing. There are some candidates who can tap this passion and translate it into online and offline action -- and others who can not regardless of the tools.

One other lesson I've learned from two decades of campaigns -- strategists and consultants nearly always get too much credit for wins and losses. It's about the candidate.
07:31 AM on 01/19/2010
I think you have put the cart before the horse. What wins elections is GOTV. Getting Out The Vote.

The best way to do this is direct contact to voters by a living volunteer. Face to face is ideal but even a phone call is good.

What the Obama campaign did was use social networking to facilitate its GOTV operation not replace it. In effect allowing them to run a national campaign as if it were local. They scaled up the traditional grassroots campaign to a national level.

I would say far from e-mail or twitter the one big technological change was the use of "virtual phone banks" and this was due to the popularity of cell phones that allow you to call anywhere and in the US.

It all comes down to GOTV and education. For example MoveOn.org ran a virtual phone bank in order to call every one of their members in Texas to explain how the state's combined primary/caucus system worked. This was a key move that helped Obama get the nomination.

Its not how many twitter followers you have but how many of those followers are knocking on doors and making phone calls.
02:07 PM on 01/18/2010
I'm not getting any support for Democrats on Facebook anymore. All I see is the latest post on the latest corporate giveaway in the health care bill. What politicans don't realize is that information travels faster than ever though social media.

They may not have read that health care bill, but as various friends and friends of friends read bits and pieces and pass the horrors on to their networks, support falls pretty fast. For example, I've read had dozens of friends forward me links to Glenn Greenwald's column on Sunstein, and that's not going to make me very trusting of suspicious social media forum posts.

Top-down messaging campaigns and sock puppets on web sites aren't going to change that.
02:19 PM on 01/18/2010
And I unsubscribed to OFA. They don't listen to supporters. It's a top-down tool of the DLC. I don't need to get their self-congratulatory emails about things that I know are ignoble compromises. I don't need their solicitations for funds.

Social media is supposed to go two ways. When it doesn't, it dies.
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sarabono
Oldie but Goody
11:49 PM on 01/18/2010
meko,

You hit the nail on the head ! I unsubscribed for exactly the same reasons !
01:14 PM on 01/18/2010
Starting with the idea that social media is the container for content; that content needs to be meaningful and valuable for the listener/voter.

Social media does not win elections. Social media only allows for a message to be shared and exposed to more people quickly in ways the "traditional media channels" can not.

A bad message widely distributed actually causes more harm than good. On the other hand, a good well thought out meaningful message distributed strategically will create leveraged opportunities in the marketplace as media and news creates more media attention and news.

One of the items which is overlooked is that messaging (value of the content) is still extremely important. Wrapping up a poor communication with technology just allows more people to know that you are not creating value in the marketplace.

The number of Facebook fans is a good initial gauge for social media success. But the real question is how many of those voters received a message via the Facebook community. Left the Facebook community. And then moved to the website to get fully engaged with the "mini movement". And then, took action in the real world. That is the real number to track to know if "social media" is getting the job done.

The www.Barack20.com project documented this whole "multichannel" sequence during the 2008 campaign cycle. It is good to see that the political world is embracing the use of new media to connect with their voters.

David Bullock
01:09 PM on 01/18/2010
Well written article. The perception of the people is that Coakley campaign is using the same attack-ad strategy we see year in and year out in Massachusetts. People view her as part of the old regime that has led to a poorly run economy, bloated government, and high unemployment. Big businesses like Fidelity Investments find themselves leaving the state for other states where the corporate tax structures is more favorable and they don't have to pay people as much. We finally have an opportunity to affect some real change with Scott Brown and I've spoken to several people that have never been active in voting and politics and they're voting Brown.
JEP57
To the right of Genghis Khan
12:22 PM on 01/18/2010
One mistake Coakley is making is to be running against George Bush and Dick Cheney in her campaign ads. A certain amount of voters in Mass. are rolling their eyes when they see these commercials with its dated technique to get votes. Bush and Cheney are retired now and Scott Brown is a Mass. state senator with no connection to national politics. It's time to move on.
10:41 AM on 01/18/2010
Read J Dionne article in the WaPo for some insight. Obama and co have been truly terrible at propounding a narrative about what it is they think they are doing. Of course one big problem is that they have spent the first year coddling wall street and letting the Congress take a leadership role in the health care debate. Contrast this weak performance to Reagan and Bush2's beginning when they jammed through legislation. Obama was always going to be blamed for deficit spending--he should at least have pushed through an adequate stimulus program--granted the Chinese have more money to spend, but their stimulus seems to have worked and it was for 600 billion--almost as large as ours (larger, actually, since it was spent faster) for an economy which is much smaller. But is there any kind of consistent argument made to the American people about "priming the pump?" Nope, basically the dems have come across as aloof and out of touch and have (predictably) let themselves be outflanked by Republicans pretending to be populists. A very pathetic performance. At this point I think we should start looking for another presidential candidate for 2012. Obama seems to be a wishy-washy conciliator with no firm ideas of his own.
11:51 AM on 01/18/2010
The amazing thing is that Republicans have succeeded to a large extent as painting Obama as a "radical" who has rammed through his agenda, when nothing could be further from the truth.

So, on the right, he's seen as a fiercely partisan liberal who has bypassed democracy and shut out all debate.

On the left, he's seen as someone who is more interested in compromise than action and who has NOT rammed through needed legislation.

He missed a window in which he could have actually effected change by really forcing an agenda, since he was going to be painted as doing so anyway. He just conceded power by trying to reason with the right.
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sarabono
Oldie but Goody
11:59 PM on 01/18/2010
Nope. His mistake was turning over the reins of the content of his proposals to Pelosi and Reid.
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BlueRoseofTexas
There is nothing micro about my bio
10:34 AM on 01/18/2010
Since Obama was inaugurated we have seen the vast independent middle wobble toward the conservative side as they respond to masterful communications tactics on the parts of Roger Ailes, Rush Limbaugh and others. We have been losing the communications battle almost from January on. It's truly amazing how fickle the American public can be and how quickly they forget.
10:27 AM on 01/18/2010
All the tweets and Facebook "fans" in the world won't help an essentially lousy campaign pushing a hollow message.
09:12 AM on 01/18/2010
David, I agree Coakley is doing a rubbish job, but I also must agree with @rexx18 who is spot-on. Although all us interactive types want to believe "that the Web has the power to push a candidate over the top" it is also true that Obama hugely out-spent his rival on old fashioned TV buys. But that's not such a sexy SM success story. Howard Dean's campaign in 2003 literally put apps like Meetup.com, Cafe Press, ActBlue on the map, well before buzz words like Web 2.0, social media and crowd sourcing were even used. But sadly he lost. The secret, if there is one, is not virtual events, but turning casual Facebook fans into dedicated precinct walkers and reliable voters.
11:53 AM on 01/18/2010
The mainstream media was complicit in framing his famous Iowa speech as the rantings of a lunatic.
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07:58 AM on 01/18/2010
McCain did not lose "mostly" due to lack of social networking. He lost because of a terrible message, a legacy of a bad Republican president the past few years and a terrible, terrible economy.

Separately, we're in trouble in this country if we judge our "leaders" by how many friends they have on Facebook or Twitter.
02:16 PM on 01/18/2010
His hate-mongering running mate also had a lot to do with why he lost - at least here in North Carolina.
07:03 AM on 01/18/2010
This seems to be more evidence of horrible campaigning. She hadn't even canvassed in Boston until Saturday. May-be her experience will break the mentality of raising kajillions from special interests and running clever ads.