Security forces scramble to react to an eruption of violence that kills 85 people in one day. Later, a mass grave is uncovered in the desert, revealing 72 mangled bodies. In a separate incident, gunmen ambush the police, executing 15 officers. This chaos isn't occurring in Iraq or Afghanistan -- it's happening on America's southern border with Mexico, a country has been teetering on the brink of disaster since 2006, when President Felipe Calderón decided to launch a full-scale offensive against the country's drug cartels. Initially conceived as only part of a larger anti-corruption effort in the wake of his disputed victory in the presidential elections, Calderón has since found that dismantling the drug cartel network is a far more gargantuan task than he originally anticipated.
Now entering its fifth year, the conflict has claimed over 35,000 lives, which is about five times more than America's total fatalities in both Iraq and Afghanistan combined. And yet, despite all the bloodshed there is still no end in sight: 2010 was the bloodiest year to date, with over 15,000 drug-related deaths, a 58% increase from 2009. But at this point, the numbers themselves fail to tell the whole story, because the violence itself has reached an almost theatrical level of absurdity that would make Quentin Tarantino blush. And it gets worse. Just recently, Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano suggested that a worst-case scenario now includes a possible partnership between Al Qaeda and a Mexican drug cartel.
Clearly, something must be done to stem the violence, rein in the drug cartels, and regain a sense of normalcy for Mexico. But time's running out.
Calderon insists that Mexico is doing all it can, and that the United States is doing too little, especially since the cartels are armed and funded with weapons and dollars from the United States. In a 5,000-word essay published last year, Calderon argued that the origin of Mexico's crisis "begins with the fact that Mexico is located next to the country that has the highest levels of drug consumption in the world."
I've argued elsewhere that the real culprit isn't America's addiction to drugs, but rather Mexico's addiction to criminal impunity. Drugs are only part of the problem. Corruption and bribery are rampant, while violent crimes like rape and murder simply go unsolved. And now, with many police departments tainted by the scourge of drug money, Mexico's military has had to step in to fill the void.
But according to State Department cables, leaked to the press by WikiLeaks, the United States has become increasingly concerned with the army's performance. One cable points out there is "considerable basis" to many of the human-rights claims that have been filed against the army, which include kidnappings, torture, and illegal raids.
These harsh tactics are leading some to question who exactly the military is targeting, and whether it was wise to deploy the armed forces in the first place. The military is not imbued with the power to actually participate in the judicial system. So while arrests have skyrocketed, prosecutions have remained flat. For instance, only 2% of those arrested in Ciudad Juarez are ever brought to trial. The rest either languish in jail or are set free.
Mexico cannot continue fighting an open-ended war against drug cartels. The military cannot continue serving as a domestic police force. The Mexican people cannot continue living under siege. At some point Mexico will have to win this war or concede defeat. The day of reckoning is fast approaching.
While President Calderón remains steadfast that victory is possible, and that Mexico's army can defeat the cartels by the end of his term in 2012, the U.S. government is not so sure. According to one State Department cable, a top Mexican official offered a sober assessment of his country's chances: "We have 18 months," he said, "and if we do not produce a tangible success that is recognizable to the Mexican people, it will be difficult to sustain the confrontation into the next administration."
That cable was filed 17 months ago.
Ending the conflict will seem especially attractive if Mexico's dismal fiscal outlook doesn't improve, given how costly the operation has been. Mexico is already heavily reliant on quickly diminishing oil revenues and outside sources to fund its basic environmental and social services. Simply put, Mexico can't afford to pay for another six years of this drug war. It would go bankrupt.
Mexico will elect a new president in 2012. Facing mounting pressure to change course, Calderon's successor may choose to cut his losses, scale back the anti-drug offensive, and try to return the country to its pre-2006 days. But that would be a mistake.
If Calderon pulled back now, Mexico would be ceding huge swaths of its own territory to heavily armed militants bent on smuggling narcotics into America. Simply put, this is not a war of choice. It's a war of last resort.
So far, the Mexican public has supported the efforts. But that may change if exhaustion and hopelessness begin to set in. It certainly doesn't help that of the many thousands of allegations filed against the military for human rights abuses, only one soldier has been sentenced. By running roughshod over human rights, Calderon's government risks alienating those who are bearing the brunt of the violence. These people will be less likely to support a continuation of Calderon's strategy during the next presidential administration if doing so means another six years of military impunity and an increasingly severe fiscal crisis.
At some point Mexicans are going to ask themselves whether they would rather live in a pre-2006 world, where drug traffickers moved freely through their country, but violence was relatively low; or a future of near-constant violence where innocent Mexicans are caught between heinous drug traffickers on one side and brutal military operations on the other.
The clock's ticking.
David A. Perez is an attorney in Seattle, and the author of America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward. A longer version of this article first ran in the April 2011 edition of the Yale Politic.
http://twopesos-protestfortheundocumented.blogspot.com/
The issue here is not "corruption" so much as a skewered justice system... one huge problem being that the present administration (not by any means considered legitimate by a good percentage of Mexicans) has focused on this one, not particularly important, problem (narcotics smuggling) to the detriment of social and political change.
For those who say "legalize it"... fine, but what your country does has little to do with Mexico, really. The big danger in legalized U.S. consumption would be U.S. attempts to control the agricultural market here, as they have done with our other export crops. And, by the way, Mr. Perez, your numbers on Mexican drug users show a whopping growth in users to almost one point five percent of the total population. And that includes weekend marijuana smokers. Hardly a major social issue, although one for our national heath system to consider.
The way to solve this is to legitimize the demand in the United States and use the tax revenue to help addicts.
Will the Department of Homeland Stupidity wait until the first terrorists come across the border and attack? Will that be the time we actually decide to fight this "war on drugs" as a real war and not a holding action? Or will we keep sending money and military arms and equipment to Mexico in the hope that things will change?
Easy to fight wars thousands of miles away and even easier to ignore the problems right on our own border. Starting in 1954, I visited Mexico regularly and loved the people, the country, the wonderful atmosphere - took my kids for weeks at a time for fun - the laid-back attitude was terrific for all of us and the friendliness and hospitality unending. Now it has become a battleground, seemingly with no end in sight.
I would like to know if Mr. Perez believes that this may actually be accurately described as a revolution.
If the Mexican government loses major parts of the nation will essentially become much like Somalia. That will be a situation that the US cannot afford to tolerate on it's Southern border.
It does lack the classic signs of a revolution (like a known leader who spouts political firebombs) but the takeover of territory says something is going on.
For now it is Mexico's war and they have bitten off more than they can chew. If they lose it could easily become our war defending our own land and people.
It would be a good idea to call our troops home from all points east and get them ready for a battle right here in America. Asymmetrical warfare will rule the day.
When a nation stands to lose territory to a well-funded insurgency, does that make it a revolution?
Seems more appropriate since we usually do not think of the use of tanks in a "Drug War".
No, this is a proxy "drug war", funded by the US Dept of State (Merida Initiative) being waged on Mexico's soil. This is YOUR "war" and 35,000 + Mexicans have been slaughtered since Calderon took the Presidency and signed this initiative during the Bush Admin. YOUR war is a 40 year long failure. Last year 800,000 arrests were carried out in the US for drug offenses. 1 + millionj inmates are currently imprisoned for drug convictions. Millions more are on parole (and have lost their voting rights).........DEA is currently stationed in 63 countries around the globe charged with keeping drugs out of the USA, and seemingly failing, as drugs have never been cheaper and/or more available to YOUR users
YOUR love of drugs in the USA has created misery and turmoil for others. Yet you point an accusing finger outward seeking to deflect responsibility onto the suppliers ......end the prohibition now. When will YOU in the USA enact policies that address the issue of recreational drug use (pharma and illegal)
You are naive if you believe all your drugs are originating from south of the US/Mexico border. Poppy is produced in Afghanistan. Precursor drugs used to manufacture synthetic drugs are originating from Asia..........all to fill the demand of YOUR market !
BTW, don't kid yourself, there is just as much corruption in the US as in Mexico. Think I'm lying? Visit rural America and you will see plenty of blatant corruption. In the cities, it's a lot less obvious. Without corruption, how do you think drugs move so freely from the border to the interior of the US? You would see the same violence here as in Mexico if the US authorities actively tried to stop the drug trade like they are doing in Mexico. Read up on the Prohibition era to get an idea of how violet the situation gets when authorities are actively trying to stop illicit activity. Solution: Legalize all drugs. I say let everyone pick their poison, we should be allowed to choose how we die.
But alas, you are also right that there is a great deal of corruption in America as well.
It's at a much higher level than anyone notices.
Good point and I am honored to be your first fan.
thanks for stating the facts some willfully refuse to acknowledge about this "drug war"
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Corruption has begun escalating in the U.S. too....as many law enforcement personnel have probably begun to realize the long-term futility of attempting to facilitate the extinction of a particular species of a plant, they've decided to start "helping themselves" now:
"War on Drugs Corrupting America's Cops
March 21, 2011
If you browse the website of Law Enforcement Against Prohibition (LEAP), you will notice a conspicuous theme: The war on drugs is corrupting America's cops.
LEAP, a group of current and former cops, prosecutors, and judges who oppose the drug war, lists "police corruption and misconduct" as one of the four main topics covered by its speakers. The profile of former Portland, Oregon, Det. Donald Dupay, for example, says he "witnessed the unintended consequences of the war on drugs that caused some of the officers in his department to become corrupt." The profile of former Oakland, California, prosecutor James Anthony says his opposition to drug prohibition stems in part from observing "the negative impact of the 'War on Drugs' on the integrity of the police force." The profile of Fred Martens, a former undercover narcotics cop with the New Jersey State Police, says he saw the drug war "corrupt innumerable law enforcement officials."
http://www.opposingviews.com/i/war-on-drugs-corrupting-america-s-cops
Let's stop wasting money on blackhawk helicopters and night vision goggles to spend it on actual SOCIAL GOODS for Mexicans and Americans alike.
This is never going to stop unless we stop acting as a relief valve for mexico.