Peak Oil: More Than Cars

grist.org

Earlier this week, Joe Romm said he doesn't see peak oil radically changing U.S. culture, since hybrids and plug-in hybrids will reduce the fuel necessary to get around. Matt Yglesias, reacting to a recent Michael Klare piece, "Beyond the Age of Petroleum," agrees with Joe, saying, "even current gasoline prices are actually quite low as a share of household income by historical standards so even if plug-in technology doesn't materialize (which is hard to believe) we're not on the precipice of such never-before-seen apocalypse."

Atrios weighs in here and here (as do his commenters, with a cumulative 861 [!] comments), saying, "rising oil/gas prices, over time, might impact peoples' behavior in terms of what kind of car they use and how much they use it. ... But ... it's just hard to see how any realistic scenario leads to the kind of of economic and social Armageddon that some authors predict."

The presumption shared by Joe, Matt, and Duncan -- and even by John, in arguing against Matt -- is that cars are the central issue here. Can drivers handle a hike in gas prices? Well, if that's the question, then sure, they can -- gas prices have risen sharply in the last couple years and the economy hasn't so much as twitched. Gas prices will keep going up, but hybrids will increase in market share, plug-ins will come online, and all will be well, right?

Now, I'm no peak oil doomer (by the way, when you're talking with peak oil types, be sure to use the word "doomer" frequently -- they love it!), but it seems to me this is a slightly pinched perspective on the oil problem. Transportation represents 69% of our oil use; light vehicles are 61% of that; thus, what all these folks are discussing, personal vehicles, are about 40% of overall U.S. oil consumption.

That 40% is worrisome, but the other 60% is what keeps the peak oilers up at night. Rapid and continuing escalation in the price of oil will affect virtually every corner of the economy. It will make raw materials more expensive to extract; construction more expensive; infrastructure improvement more expensive; shipping freight more expensive; industrial agriculture more expensive; food itself more expensive; on and on. Oil is not confined to the personal transportation sector -- it's the foundation of industrial economies.

Of course, there are a panoply of efficiency opportunities for every use of oil, not just personal vehicles. I don't expect "economic and social Armageddon" -- or more to the point, I don't like to make predictions, since I, like everyone else, have about as much chance of being right as a dart thrown at a dartboard filled with predictions.

But simply waving your hands toward more fuel efficient cars hardly makes the oil supply problem go away.

Comments

[cylindar]

We need to move into a HYDROGEN economy!!!

[mmckinl]

Today France dipped into its strategic petroleum reserves to service oil companies!.

[mamacat]

Traveling in Europe 40 years ago, I saw prices for gasoline that were higher than anything I have yet to see in the U.S.
The prices were high because some of their governments made a conscious decision to discourage people from relying on imported oil for mass transit.
While I am not saying that the time has arrived for the U.S. government to install massive taxes on gasoline and diesel, it does look like the time has come for government, businesses, and the public to stop buying so many SUVs, Hummers, and pick-ups.
If we are to survive as a species on the face of the planet, we may need to see the end of our reliance on oil sooner, rather than later.

[peacehappens]

I think we are always manipulated and rarely told the truth about anything to do with oil.

For example, when we experienced the 'energy crisis' back in the 1970s. We could only buy gas for our cars every other day and the lines were horrific. We were told there was a shortage because the middle east had stopped selling us oil.
I had cousins working in Texas oil fields who told a different story. Yes, we stopped receiving oil from the middle east BUT there were tankers filled with our oil in the Gulf of Mexico that we were not allowed to use. Another relative that was some type of manager in a US oil company told me that there was actually a glut of US oil but because of trade agreements we would not receive any of it.

My apartment building just switched to Biofuel with is 20% soy oil. We didn't go with 100% soy oil because of the additional maintenance and changes that would have been made to the boiler. The point is we can use vegetable oil to heat our homes now. We can use it to run our cars and probably anything else that we use oil for.

I trust that science is also coming up with a replacement for plastic - maybe something that can be manufactured from soy oil.

This is much ado about nothing.

[mmckinl]

China: Rationing diesel

"China's No. 2 oil company defended its efforts to meet the booming economy's fuel needs Wednesday amid diesel shortages that have led to rationing, public criticism of suppliers and a gas station brawl where one man was killed." google 'china oil'

Another sign of the coming crisis....

[Ratbert]

Imagine a world where oil discoveries peaked in 1965 and have declined fairly steadily since then. A world where 30 billion barrels of oil are consumed in a year and 6 billion are found.

Then imagine politicians, talking heads and oil company executives saying "There's plenty of oil out there". Then imagine the press siding with the politicians, talking heads and oil company executives and looking at the people who point out the impending disaster as "doomers". It's hard to imagine, but that's our world. And you get a glimpse of it here on the Huffington Post.

[ljsfolly]

Everything is affected by oil prices and we have an economy already broken too badly to support the cost we have to pay for everything it affects. When will the demand for fuel meet the demad to have fuel efficient cars and house heating etc? The elderly and the poor have a long colder winter to survive while trying to feed, clothe and stay warm enough until spring. The feds will not help and the big business (oil companies) will make huge profits as a result of bush and his administrations lack of response for years.

[mmckinl]

Bass Ackwards:

"Transportation represents 69% of our oil use"

The real story is that oil represents 95% of all transportation fuels . And there are no scalable substitutes any where in the comiing years.

Food is all about oil : Plowing ,planting , insecticide spraying , fertilizer spread, harvesting , storage , distribution, refining, production, packaging , warehousing, retail outlets. In all those stages oil and only oil is used. You have 12 steps , all needing diesel farming or transpotation , not to mention the petro- chemicals used for pesticides, fertilizers and packaging. Why do you think food is going up ?

The problem is that with peak oil the price will go up and keep going up unless and until a depression hits and economic activity slows appreciably. Even with a depression the amount of oil available keeps going down and any price slide will only be temporary. Oil is a finite resourse..

[macrumpton]

I suspect that the economics of shipping (boat and truck and to a lesser extent planes) are going to change radically in a peak oil scenario.

Walmart and the entire internet shopping experience are both dependent on being able to shuffle goods around at a cheap rate. when that rate doubles or triples, what is going to happen to the price of low margin goods? The domino effect of this is not going to be pretty.

What is going to happen to the economics of farming when there is no more cheap oil to power equipment or make fertilizer? Lastly, what is going to happen to the military with its huge oil appetite?

There are big changes coming, and faster than the doubters think, because China and India are both just starting to wake up as economic powers, and those economies are fueled by oil. Interestingly they both have the bomb as well, so they will be unlikely to crawl back into their caves when we try and grab all the goodies for ourselves.

[gerontion72]

Analyses of peak oil that lean toward the optimistic always neglect the most important factor: human psychology. There is absolutely no reason to believe that once the problem has been diagnosed (as it has)human beings will join hands in a show of rational solidarity and march toward the cure. On the contrary, structural incentives and human irrationality will push society in a million different directions.

Just ask yourself: How many NASCAR fans are going to part ways with their sport simply because some uppity scientist or government official or Huffington Post columnist tells them their sport is anachronous with the post-oil era?

[MauricioBabilonia]

Tom Whipple made a very similar point in his commentary last week:

"Food production and distribution would come first, then public health (clean water, sewage, sanitation, medical services), then public safety including the armed forces, and finally some level of economic activity that uses petroleum products.

Thirty seconds of pondering this situation should leave you with the idea that there will be very little gasoline available for your gas station to sell to you. For sure, there will be a lot fewer gas stations around ten years from now and you are not going to like the prices. "

http://www.fcnp.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1984&Itemid=35

Private automobiles aren't the only thing we need to be concerned about. Not even the first thing.

[TrustInKnowledge]

I must whole-heartedly disagree, if they "the people" would look beyond the everyday given news, and the so-called-FACTS, from what they see and hear on the news to find the truth of what is truly going on with the "High Gas and Oil Prices", furthermore, it seems that Mister David Roberts is bouncing around on his OWN discussion topic,
First; he condemns those who "point out" the high oil prices and who only try to share their discoveries with others.
Secondly; He then tries to find a common ground, and even goes about trying to agree with them on what they are saying for the most part.
I think Mister Roberts needs to "Discover" which side of this he is on?
Furthermore, There is something happening with Gas and Oil. The Gas "RESERVES" are getting BIGGER not to mention Diesel "RESERVES" are getting larger, as well as, Jet fuel which as for your information is in the same category as Diesel. What do all of these on in common? The majority is used in such Vehicles as Tanks, Aircraft-Carriers, Hummers, not to mention, Jet fuel is a Higher Reformed state of Kerosene. So I believe we have the "Right" to ask ourselves. Why are the Stock piling these things that are used primarily in Military Aspects?
I will be the first to admit that the Oil "RESERVES are getting smaller. Then why are the Gas and Distillate "RESERVES" getting larger?

A admit I might, just might be wrong, however, I seriously doubt it.

[Henry]

The technology revolution has yet to deliver. Working from home, computing not commuting, will make a measurable bump down at the margin for gas.
Plus...everyone can save 10% of current gas consumption without even a scintilla of difference to life style.
Is there a Conservative left in this country?

[jay1975]

Peak oil will change the world as we know it. It is not a matter of "if", but "when". Peak oil production has been delayed because of directional drilling (previous oil fields were only getting to 1/3 of the oil due to vertical drilling) but it will still come. There needs to be a serious focus on alternative energy sources.

[veracitatus]

For a balanced and thorough education on the peak oil phenomenon and the potential problems it may cause for the American (world) economy I would urge everyone to read the fine series of thoughtful books from Richard Heinberg: "The Party's Over", "Power Down", and "The Oil Depletion Protocol". Richard covers the full range of possible scenarios related to when Peak Oil will occur and what it will mean for our consumptive society. He is no doomer. On the other hand he doesn't try to paint a picture that allows us to keep up the current life styles.

There will be consequences that we can anticipate when oil extraction and refining start to diminish (there is a strong possibility we are at peak right now - we really won't know for sure until several years afterward unfortunately). The need to put heavy emphasis on efficiency in what we do, the need to choose essential activities and products and leave off our preoccupation with toys and diversions, the need to use our fossil fuels wisely to build a new energy infrastructure, etc. are all pretty clear.

What we don't have any way to know is how people in general are going to react to dwindling resources. We have never had to face this before. Energy resources have always been increasing over human history. And many people today believe in their heart of hearts that we will somehow find some technological fix that will mean it will continue to increase even if we have this little fossil fuel problem. Of course we all hope some technology will ease the shock. But if you have even a little knowledge of thermodynamics, Carnot efficiency, work, etc. you will know that we are pretty close to the limits of technology of energy. There are no magic discoveries on the horizon. Saving some kind of breakthrough discovery in fusion we are not likely to have any replacement energy sources any time soon.

Thus prudence suggests we plan for the worst and hope for the best.

V.