If you have limited time to devote to following the presidential election this fall, I suggest you follow the data on just three states: Florida, Virginia, and Ohio. Mitt Romney's only likely path to victory over Barack Obama is to win those three states. Conversely, if Obama can carry just one of those states, he will likely win the election.
All of the predictions in this column update in real-time on PredictWise. I create the predictions with a combination of three types of data: polls of voter intention (via the HuffPost Pollster API), prediction markets, and fundamental data. For the unfamiliar, prediction markets, such as Betfair and Intrade, are markets where the user buy and sell contracts on outcome of the upcoming election.
Obama is extremely likely to carry 191 electoral votes from 15 states and DC. Likewise, Romney is extremely likely to carry 167 electoral votes from 20 states. In these states, the other candidate has a negligible likelihood of flipping the state.
Obama has 46 electoral votes from three additional states where Romney has a non-negligible likelihood of stealing a state (Obama's likelihood of victory): MN (89.5 percent), PA (89.2 percent), and MI (86.6 percent). Romney has 39 electoral votes from four additional states where Obama has a non-negligible likelihood of stealing a state (Romney's likelihood of victory): AZ (94.4 percent), MO (90.3 percent), ND (86.9 percent), and NC (85.2 percent).
I actually expect, on average, one of these states to flip. Electoral College elections are not independent outcomes; it is highly likely that any candidate that picks up a state where he had a 5 to 20 percent likelihood of victory has also won a lot of states where he had a 20 to 50 percent likelihood of victory. In order to capture a long-shot state, a candidate needs something more than an idiosyncratic shock to that state, but also a national trend that carries a few other states with it as well. Thus, it is extremely unlikely that the long-shot state would swing the election; rather, it will pad a solid victory.
Before considering the only eight swing states, Obama has 237 electoral votes to Romney's 206 electoral votes; the winner needs 270 electoral votes or 33 more for Obama and 64 more for Romney.
Florida (29), Virginia (13), and Ohio (18) account for 60 or the 95 remaining electoral votes and constitute Romney's only viable path towards victory. Victory in all three would require Romney to just pick of one of the other five remaining states (Obama's likelihood of victory): Iowa (52.1 percent), Colorado (60.8 percent), Wisconsin (67.5 percent), New Hampshire (71.2 percent), and Nevada (73.7 percent).
If Obama wins Florida (41.1 percent), there is almost no likelihood that Romney sweeps the rest of the states to take the presidency. This is the only swing state that leans Romney. If Obama wins just Virginia (52.4 percent) or Ohio (58.9 percent), it is possible for Romney to win, but highly unlikely, because he would have to virtually sweep the remaining swing states.
Where does this leave the overall election for me as we head into the Republican National Convention -- I have Obama with a 58.9 percent likelihood of reelection, or the exact same likelihood as his chances in the pivotal swing state of Ohio.
Follow David Rothschild on Twitter: www.twitter.com/DavMicRot
 |
 |
|
| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Electoral Votes (270 to win) |
332 | 206 |
| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Total | 65,899,660 | 60,932,152 |
| Percent | 51.1% | 47.2% |
| Democrats* | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Senate | 53 | 47 |
| Seats gained or lost | +2 | -2 |
| New Total | 55 | 45 |
| Democrats | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Seats won | 201 | 234 |
Welcome to the Voters Club :)
obama/biden 2012
no jobs = no obama
Under GOP....WE were LOSING OVER 2 MILLION JOBS every 3 months !
A bit disappointed....but not crazy to go backwards...defeat the Republicans !
obama has LOST jobs not gained -- he has a NET LOSS of jobs in 4 years... not accomplished since Truman... meaning there are LESS jobs now than when he took office!
and no jobs = no obama
so w/o jobs, there will be no more obama
This is the first election in modern history where the Electoral College actually gives an advantage toward the Democrats.
That said, I think the President will comfortably win the popular vote and easily win the electoral vote.
It doesn't matter what the polls say. The important thing is for all Democrats, Independents, Progressives, Undecideds, and Reformed GOPTers must get out the vote for...........
OBAMA & STATE & LOCAL DEMOCRATS 2012
are against
yet
ANOTHER NEOCON WAR $$$$$.....election corruption and suppression....
Wall St. Crooks....etc.....then
get them to register, vote as soon as possible....and talk to other...MULTIPLY !
And folks....it takes money too.....a bit now....or
thousands per family for more war's !
OBAMA 2012!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Out of the remaining swing states, I would say Obama's grasp on Iowa and Colorado are the weakest. Take those two away and give it to Romney and Obama is still winning by 317 to 221. There are now only two questionable states remaining for Obama...Virginia and Florida. However, he can still lose BOTH and win the election 275 to 263.
However, I doubt all of those scenarios happening. I have Obama losing in Florida, but taking Virginia, Colorado, and Iowa, meaning Obama wins 303 to 235.
The election will come down to one simple fact....People like the President. He's charismatic, yet still has people's best interest at heart. Romney, on the other hand, is awkward, gaffe-prone, and he's been on the defensive for literally this ENTIRE campaign all because he wont release his tax returns and claims that his experience working in the Private Sector makes him qualified to turn around the economy yet at the same time he wont let anyone ask about his time at Bain.
I live in Fort Collins, CO, and Obama visited here yesterday. I was fortunate enough to be nominated to have my picture taken with the president, and let me tell you that this man lights up the room when he walks in. Talking to him one-on-one, I realize that he is able to make every person he meets feel special. This man could win on charisma alone. Then he went out and pumped up the students at CSU, and had the biggest rally of his re-election campaign so far.
When I watch Romney, I see an uneasy man trying hard to connect with the average person, and then making the most awful blunders. I have watched him carefully through the very few interviews he has done. He will have these very quick in-breaths when he is either totally uncomfortable, lying or trying to get out of the questions posed to him.
David Brooks, who is (was?) a conservative commentator, has this funny Op-Ed that has run in many papers in various forms today. One of the links is: www.post-gazette.com/stories/opinion/perspectives. I am not sure why this link doens't light up so you can click on it, but trust me, it is worth hunting down. It is a hoot.