Signs of a Political Earthquake in Oregon

The conventional wisdom in national politics is that lawmakers from coasts and tech regions must support our current international economic policies or face a backlash among their information sector constituents. Economic populism -- i.e., pushing for fair trade reforms, progressive taxation, and financial regulation -- has been billed by the Establishment as not only substantively unacceptable, but only politically effective in the industrial Midwest and Northeast. That's why the Oregon senate race is so incredibly significant: as I explore in my newspaper column this week, if Democrat Jeff Merkley defeats incumbent Republican Gordon Smith, all the calculations that undergird our corrupt economic politics will collapse like a package of mortgage-backed securities.

The Pacific Northwest is a collage of economic sectors -- extractive industries, high tech companies, and ports. Throughout the go-go 1990s, going populist on trade could get a Democrat votes in traditionally conservative places like Douglas County (see Rep. Peter DeFazio's success there), but could also alienate suburban office parkers -- and Republicans like Smith effectively exploited that wedge.

But as I originally found in reporting the Microsoft section of my book The Uprising, there has been something of a convergence.

As outsourcing and wage cutting hit the information sector, an unspoken -- and almost unacknowledged -- solidarity between blue and white collar workers began developing. More and more, a Democrat could talk tough on issues like NAFTA and CAFTA and feel comfortable that both manufacturing and high tech workers would agree with them. Put into movie terms, as the outrage of Gung Ho's factory workers became the seething anger of Office Space's cubicle drones, politics began realigning along class lines in places like the Northwest - -with the "us" being most workers and the "them" being the very wealthy.

The financial crisis and the subsequent decimation of everyone's 401(k) plans, of course, has only accelerated this convergence -- and now the wedge politics of Smith is being aggressively countered with the unabashed populism of Merkley. And polls show it is working.

The populist path was blazed in 2004 by leders like Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D-MT), and in 2006 by candidates like Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and Jim Webb (D-VA). But whereas these figures were able to leverage populism in states that seem more ready for full-throated economic progressivism, Merkley is running in a place known for its so-called political "moderation" (read "blandness"). The fact that Merkley is in the race at all shows that the realignment of economic politics is happening not just in the boarded up factory towns where national political pundits expect it to happen, but even in the heart of the "new economy." Should he defeat Smith, he would deliver a painful shock to the status quo -- one with major policy ramifications.

As just one example, a Democratic U.S. Senate that included Merkley as one of its stars would have a much more difficult time rubber stamping the corporate-written trade policies. And because Merkley would have just won in Oregon's "Silicon Forest," Democrats would suddenly face very real counter-pressure to ignore their high-tech industry donors demanding more unfair trade pacts.

To be sure, there is going to be a significant effort by Big Money to try to force a Democratic Congress to stay the Bush course on even the most unpopular and immoral policies. After all, in the face of polls showing bipartisan anger at our current globalization policies and more headlines about the Colombian military killing anti-free-trade protesters, John McCain nonetheless used the last presidential debate to continue advocating for the Colombia Free Trade Agreement. Indeed, the forces of money and power will stop at nothing to get their way - and a Merkley victory will strengthen the populist pushback inside the Democratic Party.

You can read the full column here.

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Comments

[NationalTreasure]

VOLUNTEER, VOTE OBAMA/BIDEN

The race is not over. Republicans have the "terrorism" card left to play.

In 2004 every time Sen. Kerry pulled ahead of GW Bush there would be some sort of terrorism scare and high terror alert. Keith Olberman was able to rebutt all of the charges, as well as others in the main stream, but by the time the facts got out it was January 2005 or later.

This year the republicans are not going to go any easier and will play every nasty trick in the book: fear, racism, bigotry, xenophobia, socialism and terrorism anything except address the issues in a positive manner.

Help get out the vote over the next fifteen days. Contact the Obama/Biden office near you or any local Democratic politican or Democratic canidate running for office in your area and offer to volunteer.
You all can help win this election by volunteering and helping get out the vote. Take as many of your family and friends with you to volunteer. It does not have to be for a lot of hours just two or four hours can help make a difference.

VOLUNTEER and VOTE OBAMA/BIDEN!

[NationalTreasure]

Folks need to be reminded that John McCain and the republicans preach the republican economic policy of "trickle down economics" and "whatever is good for corporate America is good for all Americans" these false paradigms have led to the collaspe of our financial marktes and more people unemployed or underemployed since the great depression.

Help get out the vote over the next fifteen days. Contact the Obama/Biden office near you or any local Democratic politican or Democratic canidate running for office in your area and offer to volunteer.
You all can help win this election by volunteering and helping get out the vote. Take as many of your family and friends with you to volunteer. It does not have to be for a lot of hours just two or four hours can help make a difference.

VOLUNTEER and VOTE

[Oakland]

"As outsourcing and wage cutting hit the information sector, an unspoken -- and almost unacknowledged -- solidarity between blue and white collar workers began developing. "

Duh - if they were half as smart as they thought, they would have known from the beginning that they can't exist without manufacturing. Talk about a well deserved come uppance, I suppose better late than never. Nothing is more ignorant than arrogance.

[Badger84]

Here in Portland, our newspaper is the Oregonian. It has a proud history of union-busting. It has also actively promoted the charade the Gordon Smith is a moderate--focusing on his rhetoric while ignoring his actual votes. It supported W in 2000, when he told the editorial board that, although he was ultraconservative as the governor of Texas, he would govern from the center as president. Their collective response was, "Oh, OK." And they endorsed him. We need a real newspaper.

[Midnight Writer]

A real newspaper is hard to find these days, I suppose that's why many of us search on the internet to find out more information than what mainstream tells us. But then it is no wonder as JP Morgan once decided to buy out certain key media out lets and after the deregulation's it is no wonder that the hands of a few are in control of the propaganda machines. Since I am a believer in both mainstream party's being 2 sides of the same coin and very few patriots left in both party's I have been looking into other party's believing it is time to break the 2 party system into many more as the American people need more real choices in government as this is supposed to be our government not the corporations which is obvious.

[Agent420]

There is nothing in the Constitution that say we have to have two parties. If fact the Constitution is set up for multiple parties. Sorry, that is wrong, there is nothing in there about parties, just candidates and that we can have many candidates for Pres. and VP.

As far as newspapers in Oregon, there may as well be none.

[TommyMcCarthy]

I'm going to go ahead and vote for Jeff Merkley for the obvious reason that I'm a Dem...and I want reliable progressive votes in the Senate (hopefully 60 of them....not impossible!!)

The more I have learned about Merkley, the better I like him.........

That said....I have to tell you Idon't think he's going to make it ...not because Oregonians distrust him.....but because they don't KNOW him.....
Merkley has not run a BAD campaign.......he just hasn't run enough of one.

Oregon is a "retail poitics" state....and Merkley... whether for lack of money or what....... started quite late to introduce himself to Oregonians who DON'T follow the ins and outs of the statehouse (practically everybody)

Must disagree with a number of commenters...... By national Republican standards.....Smith is VERY moderate............

Just calling Smith some names and pasting a "D" next to your name will not suffice in our state, where, by national standards,.....EVERYONE is an independent.
Regards
tm

[emsique]

I beg to differ. I'm an Oregonian, too and people are sick of Republicans. Merkley is leading in the polls and even though Smith is a so called moderate, he still was with Bush most of the time. People here are sophisticated enough politically to know that it will take more than a democrat in the White House. We also need full control of the Senate, too if we want to get anything done. Gordon is done. See ya!

[naschkatze]

I live in Central Oregon, and I urge all of you west of the Cascades to get out and turn your ballots in on Nov. 4 if you haven't mailed them in. I imagine it's only a small number who will not have mailed them in, but here, east of the Cascades, the people tend to see Gordon Smith as "our" Senator, representing our half of the state. What I'm saying is that we have to win this for Merkley on the western side of the mountains, so please do not stay at home just because you think Obama has won and nothing else matters. It does.

[guajiro]

Looks like Republican Gordon Smith votes with Bush 90% of the time. Check it out.

http://www.stopgordonsmith.com/2007/07/smith_bush_agai.html

"Gordon Smith votes with President Bush 90 percent of the time. He’s voted with him on the Iraq War, on tax breaks for corporations, on drilling in ANWR, and a host of other bedrock conservative issues.

Again, that’s 90 percent. So, the only person in Oregon who agrees with our President on nine out of every 10 decision he makes unfortunately also happens to be our junior U.S. Senator.

He served as co-chair of Bush’s 2004 re-election campaign in Oregon, has raised money for him and frequently campaigns with him.

So, even though President Bush has broken our country’s budget, broken our military’s resources and broken his trust with the American people, Gordon Smith won’t break away from him.

How does that serve Oregon’s interests?".

[HanSolomente]

This is the best chart comparing McCain and Obama's tax plans that I have ever seen. It makes the stark differences very clear at a simple glance. I would love for the MSM to use this:

http://chartjunk.karmanaut.com/images/taxplans.pdf

[Pdubya]

They're both crooks. Lets hope David Bownlow makes a good showing, though, he is going to be the one that tips the election. Maybe next time David, thanks for your hard work.

[PatRyan]

There is no comparison between the two. Smith , as has been pointed out, has never been a moderate.

Jeff's history, from his roots as the son of a Myrtle Creek millwright, through his education and work in a variety of charitable foundations and orgs has been all about service to the underdog. He's been a major player with the Lutheran charities while employed as an arms control number cruncher in DC, with Habitat for Humanity in Oregon, and he met his wife while she was working for Mother Theresa's organization.

From backbencher to his latest stint as Speaker with a razor thin majority in the Oregon Legislature, he has been a consensus builder and a reliable progressive.

Now let me add, that Jeff's a true wonk in the Gore/Wellstone tradition, and he ain't likely to light up a stage with his rhetoric. What we will get is a thoughtful guy who's knee rarely jerks in any particular direction.

The entire Oregon delegation will benefit from his presence.

[sticksnstones]

For those Oregon voters who, like me, vehemently opposed the passage of the recent 700 billion dollar bailout package, it may be wise to recall that most of Oregon's members of congress also opposed its passage. Two elected congressmen voted in support : Rep. Greg Walden and Sen. Gordon Smith, both Republicans. My intent is to hold both Smith and Walden accountable for their votes in support of the bailout as passed. I will vote for their Democratic opponents.
That said, I also strongly believe an injection of competent new blood is long overdue in both houses of congress. There are many voters who say that we should throw all the bums out and start fresh, that the replacements couldn't do any worse. Although this seems like an extreme make-over, I honestly cannot come up with a better solution.

[Indubio]

I'm curious why you 'vehemently oppose' the banking legislation? I've heard people express dislike for it but without offering alternatives. The legislation increases national debt and doesn't change banking and finance regulations but that's not important short term. Most opposing arguments remind of me those used by social conservatives to support their beliefs: Support is based on instinct. Instinctively, I want to see Wall Street banks fall on their faces but that's irrational.

This legislation was necessary and no arguments mitigate that necessity. Whether you or I like it, national and international economies live/die on baking and credit. We may wish that wasn't the case but wishful thinking isn't helpful. I'd like to hang the scoundrels who created a situation where our economic well being rests in the hands of Wall Street suits but that's the way things are--short term: Let banks and the financial sector fail and our economy tanks worse then it already has. That's not hyperbole spread by Paulson. If you believe Paulson wanted to use public money to partly nationalize banks then you don't know Paulson--or Bernanke: They proposed what they did out of desperation and with luck their actions stemmed the crisis before the situation became truly catastrophic. We'll know in perhaps a month if the actions thus far have been successful: Lets hope they are because it they aren't people will lose more than 401k value.

[sticksnstones]

Although I appreciate your comments, let me attempt to direct us back to the heart of this article, which is about a shift in political dynamics which favors the candidacy of Jeff Merkley in his run for the US Senate. My comments were made in support of yet another aspect of this dynamic, which involves Sen. Smith's vote to support the bailout package and the inevitable negative fallout that his support will likely have in his bid for re-election.
That said, I stand by my comments concerning the bailout package. You, nor Paulson, nor the Executive Office in particular will pursuade most voters that the bailout will ultimitely benefit the average taxpayer. It IS about insuring the continuing solvency of the wealthiest 2% of our population. Bad investments result in financial loss. Those investments made in an environment of unregulated oversight which allows the leveraging of one dollar in assets against 30 to 40 in borrowed dollars will result in collapse if markets reverse. And that's what happened when the housing bubble collapsed. 700 billion won't be anything more than a thumb in the dike. Do I have an alternative plan ? No. It's an unfair question.

[Obibrenner]

As an Oregonian for the last 14 years, it always makes me laugh when someone describes Gordon Smith as a moderate. Gordon is a party line republican for 4.5 years of each of his terms. As his reelection looms, he finds out how a bill is going to fare, if his vote won't change the outcome, he'll vote the Dem's way so he can crow about working across party lines. In fact one of Gordo's first TV ads shows him in a picture with Barack Obama as evidence he is not a partisan Republican, & works with Dems. With the hate portion of the campaign now calling Obama a terrorist, will Gordo denounce these Robo-Calls. If you think he will, I've got a bridge to nowhere to sell you.

To make matters worse, Ron Wyden, the Dem Senator, tours the state with Gordo & refuses to make anti Smith statements or call for Smith's defeat.

Oregon has only one state wide elected Repub, Smith. The reasons are more complex than the author has stated.

I live on rural East of the Cascades, Republicans outnumber Dems by a significant amount. Fortunately, the major cities are on the west side of the Cascades and the Dems hold a more significant lead. Therefore, on State wide elections, the West outnumbers the East.

I'm hopeful that this year, Gordo goes down, &Wyden comes out and throws his support for Merckley, even if it costs him some votes on the East side next election.

[cindyward]

Ron Wyden has done an ad for and with Jeff Merkley and has asked Gordon Smith to quit featuring Wyden in one of Smith's ads. Smith pulled Wyden's signature(!) from the ad but did not pull Wyden's sound bite. I guess that's how Smith meets Wyden halfway :-(

I don't know if Merkley can beat the Smith/RNC sleaze machine but I'm hoping for the best. I do know Merkley's campaign needs money and volunteers. If you can help, please do! Merkley's Web site is www.jeffmerkley.com .

The one sort-of good thing is that the competitiveness of the Oregon Senate race (as well as others) is forcing the RNC to pull resources out of McCain's campaign. I have not seen a single McCain ad on TV here in Portland, and my understanding is that McCain has essentially conceded Oregon to Obama.

[cindyward]

Somehow HuffPo made a mismash of the Merkley URL I posted. The correct URL is:

http://www.jeffmerkley.com

[rich misty]

http://election.princeton.edu/2008/10/10/a-hard-look-at-reality-and-what-you-should-do/

Dr. Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium has this as one of three knife edge races to target in an effort the break the GOP filibuster.

[jorge4u]

Wasn't Smith at one using Obama in his ads showing how he can work Democrats?

[MountPanic]

He still is, but it's gotten worse. The guy is basically trying to run as a Democrat, tying himself to Obama, Ted Kennedy and stalwart Oregon Senator, Ron Wyden, but with the typical Republican "tax and spend, Tax and Spend, TAX AND SPEND!!!" campaign tacked on. Thank God he hasn't called himself a "maverick."

I wasn't sure I'd vote for either of them at first, because Merkley's ads were kind of douchey, but Smith's have gotten SO bad, and in the end it'll be worth sending Merkley just for the votes.

Readin Sirota's article here, though, it sounds like he might actually have some leadership in him too, and I certainly can't say no to some more principled pro-worker leadership in Washington.

[Social Construct]

I'm sitting on the fence as far as the Merkley/Smith race is concerned; the campaign tactics are unremarkable from any Dem./Rep. race. This sugests to me a "meet the new boss, same as the old boss" senario. The rhetoric of the party will fall too short of the reality of the result for my taste. Having said that, I am in favor of the more progressive of the two gaining the Senate seat. I am just wary that a Merkley win will translate into a meaningful victory for the hard working, have-nots in this beautiful state. I'll hold my breath and hope that the working poor find a real friend in government and not just another snakeoil salesman.

[cindyward]

As another Oregonian, I promise you that a Merkley win will be much close to the meaningful victory you seek for us hard-working have-nots in our beautiful state. All you need to know about Smith you can read in the Willamette Week:

http://wweek.com/editorial/3444/11499/

This article details how Smith is a petty employer who uses a demeaning demerit system to keep his low-wage Latino workers - some of whom are likely illegal - in line. He could use a system called E-verify to check if applicants are legal immigrants but he chooses not to "because it doesn't work very well." Workers are fired if they are not available to work on-call on more than one occasion. Only about a third of the employees are offered health insurance.

I think it's safe to say that Smith is a have who is exploiting have-nots in our state ...

[drumz]

Smith is a POS. His ads are disgusting gutter politics coming from the party that only knows one thing, slander.

[Rascalitis]

The TV stations in Oregon must be rich from all the ads for these two guys...and it's been going on for months and months. Makes you crazy.

[Marlyn]

What a crazy election system we have in America. You might as well make it a dollar a vote. It is all about money and the money all goes for ads. This is basically a corrupt system.

The media should give free time for ads.

[LillyDePlume]

I'll be so happy when the ads finally disappear, especially the one of Jeff eating a hot dog. That light-hearted moment was deliberately twisted by Smith to make Jeff look like an idiot.

I especially appreciate Ron Wyden stepping up and making it clear that he supports Merkley. I think they would make a wonderful team for Oregon!

I wrote to Smith to ask him to denounce the hate-mongering spewing from Palin but he did nothing. ::shrug::

I finally resigned from the Republican party after 28 years and will be voting the straight Democratic ticket from now on. I hope the GOP experiences a "bloodbath" across the nation on November 4th; God knows that they deserve it!

[Wumpie]

Even though I am voting for Merkley, I mute the TV when either candidate's ads come on. I am so SICK of this race. If I feel and act in this manner, I'll bet many other are too.