Stealing Arizona: Obama's Last Minute Incursion Into McCain's Home State

PHOENIX -- In Arizona's capital city, traffic news helicopters roved over polling stations reporting both the shortest and the longest lines throughout the morning. Over the weekend, I spoke with voters who planned to get in line Tuesday morning at 5:00 AM - a full hour before the polls were scheduled to open. One voter in the Phoenix area says he was late to work even though he arrived at 5:30 AM. He had to wait in line about an hour and a half after the polls opened, until about 7:30 AM.

Lines are expected to be long throughout Election Day here. Voters reported 2-3 hour waits at early voting locations last week, and if voter turnout reaches as high as the secretary of state is expecting (approximately 85%), then voters could be waiting in line for hours after the polls close Tuesday night. Approximately one third of Arizona's registered voters requested early ballots, and all but 180,000 of those have already been returned.

John McCain, his wife Cindy, and his children emerged from his polling place at 9:15 AM this morning, adding a handful of votes to his tally - but that won't be enough if Democratic turnout outweighs Republican turnout today. The presidential race has become so competitive in John McCain's home state that he rushed back to Prescott to headline a midnight rally Monday night - the eve of Election Day.

Supporters arrived at the Yavapai County Courthouse late in the evening, and festivities were kicked off by Hank Williams Jr. around 11:00 PM. At nearly 1:00 AM, a weary John McCain finally performed a shortened version of his standard routine. John McCain also began and ended all of his Senate campaigns at the same spot in honor of Barry Goldwater, his predecessor, who did the same. The sub-headline of a foreign paper summed it up, Underdog invokes spirit of home state's most famous loser. The author went on to call Prescott the "final resting place" of the McCain-Palin campaign and said that McCain "summoned up the spirit of Arizona's most famous loser, Barry Goldwater."

Howard Dean spent Monday traversing Arizona, energizing volunteers and voters, hoping to boost enthusiasm for Obama enough to put him over the top here in McCain's home state. He told volunteers in Tempe that the race here will be determined by turnout. If Democrats turn out enough voters, he said, Obama could win McCain's home state electoral votes.

Randy Pullen, Chair of the Arizona Republican Party, sent out an email late Monday night bragging that their party had made 20,000 calls over the course of the last week. An email sent to the Obama Arizona Call Team sent out an email touting 450,000 phone calls made by its volunteers. It was unclear if that number included calls made by the coordinated campaign - either way, the disparity between the ground operations of the two major parties in Arizona is astounding.

Democratic offices in Arizona are overflowing. At every office I visited, tables were setup outside to accommodate overcrowding. At the Obama headquarters in Phoenix, they expanded into the house next door and scattered banquet tables across the porches and yards of both houses. Monday night, Arizona Communications Director Dave Cieslak estimated the number of democratic Arizona volunteers to be in the tens of thousands.

The volunteers have been motivated by an unexpected spate of polls showing Barack Obama within the margin of error in Arizona. Last week, five polls came out showing that Obama had overcome a 21 point summer deficit in Arizona to get to within striking distance just days before Election Day.

Despite the extraordinary number of volunteers, Democrats need even more help throughout Election Day -- ironically because of the closeness of the race. Because the tightening was unanticipated, the state party had been focused on specific down ticket races - targeting very specific areas parts of the state. Now, though, every voter in Arizona matters whether the down ticket races in their district or precinct are competitive or not.

Arizona has more than 2.9 million registered voters. That's a tall order in the final days of a campaign. Yet, the numbers already contacted (more than 450,000 phone calls by democrats, more than 20,000 by republicans) are staggering. If Democrats are able to continue recruiting new volunteers throughout the final hours of the race, they may come close to meeting this goal. If Obama wins this state, it undoubtedly will be attributed to the extraordinary ability of the Obama campaign and local democrats to organize and deploy an incredible large number of volunteers in the final days and hours of the race.

Saturday night, dozens of Obama volunteers worked late into the night at Obama's Arizona headquarters and other satellite offices across the Phoenix area. Local Obama volunteers and staff have sent emails in the wee hours every day for the last week. Throughout the weekend, offices across the state were overflowing with volunteers. The Obama headquarters had to extend into the house next door and scattered banquet tables across the front and back lawns of both houses to make room for more volunteers. In the heart of the most conservative district in the state, the GemDems (Greater Eastern Maricopa County Democrats) office was forced to expand onto the sidewalk out front and the loading dock in the back. Phone bankers without personal cell phones waited patiently in queues for access to party-owned cell phones and land lines. In an admirable show of teamwork, some volunteers offered their own personal cell phones to those without a phone.

Meanwhile, Sunday evening the McCain headquarters was locked and empty during prime phone banking hours. This is not an anomaly - not long ago I was forced to take photos of the McCain office through the little glass window beside the door because it was locked and empty - in the middle of a weekday afternoon. The empty office phenomenon has been noted in McCain offices across the country.

The McCain-Palin campaign stepped up efforts in other, more controversial, ways. Last Wednesday the McCain-Palin campaign began robo calling voters in Arizona with one of their controversial attacks on Obama. Latino voters also began reporting robo calls over the weekend. One local voter who wished to remain anonymous says she received a Spanish language robo call warning her to vote against Obama to protect her children from "drug traffickers, child molesters, and assassins." Like other robo calls into Arizona, this call originates 866-520-5769.

Obama Communications Director Dave Cieslak said,

In 2000, John McCain said that he would not "take the low road to the highest office in the land." Eight years later, he is running one of the most dishonest, dishonorable campaigns we have ever seen. He's using automated calls to lie about Barack Obama -- the same tactics that were used against him in 2000. Colin Powell called the automated calls "inappropriate," and four Republican U.S. Senators have called on McCain to stop these calls. That just tells you how poorly they're being received by voters.

While McCain began making automated calls attacking his opponent in the final days of the race, Obama spent money on positive television advertisement - both an indicator of the difference in tone of the two campaigns and the disparity in funding.

To win in Arizona, Obama would need to boost Kerry's 6 point margin in Pima County to nearly 20 points to make up for losses throughout the rest of Arizona - a reasonable goal given that Tucson (the state's second largest city) is a liberal bastion. Obama would also need to almost break even in Maricopa County (where Kerry lost by 15 points) while cutting into McCain's numbers throughout the rural counties, particularly Yavapai County (where Kerry lost by 23 points), the location of McCain's midnight rally Monday night.

The state has already begun counting early ballots received before Election Day, and state elections officials say they expect to finish counting those by the time the polls close Tuesday. On Wednesday, elections officials will begin counting early ballots that arrive on Tuesday. With 180,000 outstanding ballots as of Monday evening, that count could take days. If a large number of voters cast votes using provisional ballots, that could also delay results.

Pima vote count will likely be slow due to a decision by Pima County elections officials to submit results to the central office via vans because of concerns about the security of modem transmissions. Pima County elections officials said they hope to have county results by early Wednesday morning.

As results are reported, the race to watch is Arizona's third Congressional district. It is the hottest race in Arizona, and as its returns come in, it may provide a hint whether Obama will be successful in stealing McCain's home state electoral votes. If Bob Lord (D) wins the third district, which usually goes for Republican candidates, it will be a good sign for democrats watching the presidential election.

Down ticket candidates are fighting it out for control over the state legislature. With up to two dozen Arizona House seats set to be picked up by democrats, the Democratic Party is favored for taking a majority in the House. Democrats also have an outside chance at taking a majority of the state Senate.

Even "America's toughest sheriff" may be affected by Obama's coattails. The Democratic Party has taken a new tact in their battle with the conservative Maricopa County lawman: They intend to rein him in with bureaucracy. In an attempt to control Sheriff Joe Arpaio through his budget, line by line, Arizona democrats are aiming for a 3 person majority on the 5 seat Maricopa County Board of Supervisors.

Besides incumbency advantage, McCain does have one thing going for him in Arizona. Prop 102, an anti-gay referendum, will likely boost conservative turnout. This referendum, if passed, would amend the state constitution to define marriage as between one man and one woman. Arizonans voted down a similar measure in 2006, but the ultra conservative Arizona legislature placed it back on the ballot this year. Conservative evangelicals have been passionate about this issue, and turnout for this proposition could boost McCain's numbers.

Follow Dawn Teo on Twitter: www.twitter.com/dawnteo

Comments

[jumPingkoKanee]

Arizona voter turnout in this election fell short of record

Perhaps One reason we had few lines....p­eople here were not inspired by "Favorite Sun....oop­s Son" John McCain...t­here were more Bumper stickers, etc for Obama anyway.
This report was also made on CBS 5 news.
http://www.azcentral.com/news/election/azelections/articles/2008/11/05/20081105turnout1106-ON.html
Arizona voter turnout in this election fell short of record
by Scott Wong and Matt Wynn - Nov. 5, 2008 08:30 PM
The Arizona Republic
About 230,000 ballots remain to be counted, but voter turnout in Tuesday's election fell short of the record participation that had been anticipated in Arizona.

As of Wednesday evening, the Secretary of State's Office reported that 64 percent of the state's roughly 3 million registered voters cast ballots in this presidential election. That figure mirrored voter participation in Maricopa County, where 63.7 percent of 1.7 million voters turned out at the polls.

....snippe­d due to space limits of comment section...­..

But statewide turnout in this year's presidential contest - featuring Arizona favorite son John McCain and Barack Obama, the first Black nominee of a major political party - won't top the 80 percent turnout seen in 1980, when Ronald Reagan unseated incumbent Jimmy Carter.

In fact, it probably won't even best the participation seen in the last presidential race in 2004, when George W. Bush defeated John Kerry.

story continues at the website cited above

[kareemachan]

Just for the hell of it, I tried calling the robocall number listed in the article (866-520-5769). Funny thing, I think the phone was off the hook...

[RGuillory]

Dawn, I always enjoy your posts. Wanted to let you know that calling today from Bob Lord's headquarters was amazing and followed closely your description of other phone banks: sign-up lists for landlines and plenty of us volunteers using our own cell phones. The voters we reached for the most part had already voted--great news--but there were a few I talked to who not only had NOT voted but didn't realize they had to go to a particular polling place to cast their vote (they were confused by being able to drop off their absentee ballot anywhere and thought that meant they could also cast their vote anywhere); fortunately, we set the record straight and several more votes for Obama are rescued from the "OOOPS" bin. A pointed reminder that the absentee/early voting system has its own peculiar challenges. Anyway, it's been so rewarding to work on this campaign and I'm very encouraged by what we heard from voters regarding turnout today. It sure would be a stretch to turn AZ blue on the presidential race this year, but the campaign that President Obama has waged has strengthened the progressive community here and that's a welcome change!

[Dawn Teo - Huffpost Blogger]

Thanks so much RGuillory. And thanks for working for Bob. He is a good candidate, and I hope he runs again.

[FACINGREALIT]

I am so amazed how Obama has affected the thinking of children and their ability to process his information. I have 2 granddaughters who were visiting (ages 3 and 5) and they are Obama-kids for real. They were really acting up - pushing each other - screaming stop touching me etc, until an Obama commercial came on television. Instantaneously, they stopped in their tracks and began saying Grandma - look its Obama, turn it up! They were a little upset when the commerical went off so 'being a grandmother seeking quiet in the middle of a fight' I grapped my computer and pulled up some Obama speeches on YouTube! They were estatic, and they actually sat long enough to watch the whole speech (or two). Every now and again they would say, look grandma that's Obama, Yes We Can! They clapped when those in attendance of the speeches clapped and giggled instead of fighting.

Overall it was better than the Disney Channel and I now have a solution that will calm them the next time they visit. So yes, I have a lot of hope for the next generation and their increased involvement in politics. Tonight, the YOUTH are going to surprise a lot of nay-sayers and come out in DROVES!

Go Obama/Biden 08/12 and thanks for the quiet time! Who knew a video of a politician could work such magic?

[Archivist1000]

OH Grandma ! What a great thing it is, that you can share this historic election with your grand-daughters !!

Just think: those little girls will be SHOCKED some day, to hear that ... Once upon a time, it was historic for a BLack Man or a Woman to run for President!

All in their lifetime !

[beantowner]

A friend of mine in Wilhoit (about 15 miles south of Prescott, a small town with mostly dirt roads) was on her way to vote this morning with her husband. They live about a mile from their polling place.

They stopped and picked up a hitchhiker on their way - a 100-year-old lady who was walking with a cane and had stuck her thumb out (!) when she heard their car approaching. She was determined to vote, come hell or high water, since she's voted in every single election in the past and was going to get there today, one way or another. My friend and her husband waited for this lady to cast her vote and then drove her home again (even though they had planned to go elsewhere after voting).

This little old lady probably voted for McCain, considering this part of AZ is pretty red (or has been in the past; who knows how it'll go today?). But no matter. My friend and her husband are Obama supporters who went out of their way to help this lady take part in the election. That's a united Obama America for ya!

I have great friends. :-)

[BUTCHER111]

This just in!!. McCain wins his home state by ONE VOTE!

Just kidding!

[FACINGREALIT]

ROFLMBO - Imagine that happening, that would be tooo funny!

[beantowner]

LMAO! Very good!

[Archivist1000]

HAHA even Cindy didn't vote for him???? lmao

[beantowner]

I voted at about 10:00 a.m. in my tiny town in Yavapai County. It wasn't a long wait but, for the first time ever, there were people in line. They had one machine and a number of booths for paper-ballot voters.

A schoolbus had brought several middle-schoolers and their teachers to the polling place so the kids could learn about our election process in action. As I left the building after voting, I stopped to chat with a small group of these kids (all around ages 12-14) and asked them, "If you could vote today, who would you cast your ballot for?" Four of the five cheered, "Obama!" Just one girl said, "McCain."

The Obama supporters asked me who I'd voted for, and I pulled my jacket aside to reveal my Obama button. Their faces became broad smiles, and each of them raised their hands to high-five me. I then patted the lone McCain supporter on the back and wished her good luck today, to which she nodded with a lowered head. She sure didn't look confident about her candidate's chances.

Ahh, the future is here right now. :-)

[Archivist1000]

There is at least ONE stupid kid in every classroom.

[dzent1]

The arid, blazingly hot and parched desert of Arizona is a fit resting place for the rotting carcass of the McCain campaign. I have no memory of another such disgustingly smear-ridden campaign, which set a new low for discourse in this country and single-handedly made a citizen's race a factor in the political process once again, a shameful stance from which our country has been successfully retreating until this year. I hope the Arizona sun bleaches the bones of McCain's campaign as it lies dead on the desert floor, a warning to neo-cons that the average person will no longer stand for the deceits and propaganda of the ultra-rich who have ruined America for generations yet unborn. Eternal shame be upon the Republican Party, and may they disappear from American politics and never return.

[jacklambert]

dzent1, I second that......­.Very funny. I hope it's true

[yesicanne]

dzent1, your remarks above were the impetus that caused me to sign up for comment at this site. You really captured so much of what I've been feeling about the republican m.o., whether while in office or on the campaign trail. Very eloquent, sharply incisive comments - thank you for so brilliantly expressing my own angst.

[AnalyzeIT]

Beautifully stated. Thank you.

Ex-Zonie

OBAMA-BIDEN

[StillweRise]

I voted early (last week). My wife voted today (dropping off her early/mail in ballot). The line at our kid's school was longer than I have seen it before, but would have been under an hour voting 9 believe.

THRILLED to see Arizona contested.

[Ani]

Dawn, thanks for another great post regarding Arizona. I spoke with a woman who voted today (for McCain) in Anthem, north of Phoenix. She said her daughter, a kindergartner, had mock voting in her class. I was glad to hear that Obama won the kindergarten vote. I'm looking forward to hearing about the grownup vote here and hope it reflects the wisdom of the children.

[knowwhatimsayin]

I voted this morning up in Kingman. No lines at all and the operation seemed smooth as silk. I'm hoping that the enthusiasm for Obama all over Arizona can at least cut in half the natural advantage the Republicans have in the rural counties. At a minimum I think Obama will win Pima, Santa Cruz, Coconino, Navajo and Apache counties and maybe come close in Maricopa.

[sewbug]

Dawn,
I love the Arizona info. Thank you so much. I went to the Howard Dean rally here in Tucson yesterday. The headquarters was so full that they were only letting people who were calling inside. The rally was held in a lot cross the street.
We wish that Obama had been able to come to Arizona. My doctor said that if he had, she would have closed her office so that they could have all gone to see him. My husband and I are crossing our fingers to see McCain lose in Arizona!

[OddManOut]

Great post Dawn.

My parents both voted early, where they waited in a long line, and said the lines were quite long today all around metro Tucson.

Go Arizona!

[jumPingkoKanee]

I drove by 3 polling places at 1:25 pm here near Downtown Mesa, AZ..... no apparent lines at that time,

Gee, Howard Dean was here today, I could have known that ahead of time. I was born in Vermont and his proposals matched my thoughts.I lived in Washington State at the time.
As an early supporter of his in 2003-4, he engineered and started a lot of what is coming about today in the success of the Obama campaign..­.primarlil­y the internet fundraisng and the 50 state strategy.

Bob Bourke

[Dawn Teo - Huffpost Blogger]

Glad to hear there are no lines at your polling place. My polling place does not have much of a line either. I think people are waiting about 20-30 minutes there, which is quite reasonable. Just a little bit down the road, though, people are waiting about an hour. It seemed to get a lot better everywhere after the morning rush. Let's hope it doesn't get too bad at the end of the day when folks get off work.

[xkater]

Dawn, thanks for your excellent reporting!