iPhone app iPad app Android phone app Android tablet app More

Featuring fresh takes and real-time analysis from HuffPost's signature lineup of contributors
Dean Baker

GET UPDATES FROM Dean Baker

Cutting Social Security by Stealth

Posted: 07/25/11 06:40 PM ET

There is a full-fledged drive to cut social security benefits by lowering the annual cost of living adjustment for people already receiving benefits. The plan involves changing the index for calculating the cost of living. The new index, which is known as the "chained consumer price index" (CCPI), typically shows a rate of inflation 0.3 percentage points less than the CPI currently used to adjust benefits.

A reduction of 0.3 percentage points in benefits may seem small, but this will accumulate through time. After being retired ten years, benefits will be almost 3% lower with the CCPI. After 20 years, the loss will be near 6%, and after 30 years, the reduction in benefits will be close to 9%. This is a serious loss of income for seniors, the vast majority of whom rely on social security for most of their income.

The justification for the change in the benefit formula is that the CCPI takes account of the substitutions that consumers make in response to changing prices. The classic story is that if the price of beef rises and the price of chicken doesn't, people will buy more chicken and less beef. The CCPI takes this switching from beef to chicken into account in calculating inflation. The current CPI does not.

While there is an argument for taking account of this sort of substitution in the index, there are two important issues that arise when evaluating the cost of living of seniors. First, their consumption patterns differ substantially from the rest of the population. They consume more healthcare and fewer computers.

The Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) has constructed an experimental index that tracks the consumption patterns of the elderly. This index actually has shown a somewhat higher rate of inflation than the CPI currently used to adjust benefits. In other words, it implies that the current cost of living adjustment is too low, not too high.

The other problem is that it is not clear that the elderly would be as likely to make consumer substitutions in response to price changes as the rest of the population. There are three reasons for this. First, many of the items consumed by the elderly don't lend themselves well to substitution. If the price of heart surgery goes up, people are unlikely to substitute other medical care. Healthcare and shelter together account for almost half of the consumption basket in the elderly index. Second, they tend to be a less mobile population. This means that if responding to a change in prices means travelling further to shop, the elderly might be less capable of doing this than the rest of the population. Finally, older people may just be more set in their ways. If they have been eating beef twice a week for 40 years, they may continue to eat beef, even if the price does rise.

At this point, we don't know what a full elderly index that included substitution would show about the cost of living for the elderly. However, if the point of changing the indexation formula for social security is to make the indexation more accurate, then it would seem that we would want to find out. In other words, if the people who claim to want a more accurate cost of living adjustment are being honest, then they should be calling for the BLS to construct a full elderly index. This index would then be used for adjusting social security benefits. At this point, we don't know if this index will show a higher or lower rate of inflation. We just know that it will be more accurate.

In the push to cut benefits, many have claimed that "all economists agree" that we should switch to the social security adjustment to the CCPI and thereby lower benefits. While the claim is not true, it is also worth pointing out that "all economists" have a very bad track record.

"All economists" missed the $8tn housing bubble that wrecked the U.S. economy, as well as the bubbles whose collapse did similar damage to the European economies. "All economists" thought that the stock bubble of the '90s would just keep inflating indefinitely. In fact, those wanting to invest social security money in the stock market effectively assumed that price to earnings ratios would rise into the hundreds in the decades ahead.

"All economists" even have a very bad track record on this exact issue. Back in the '90s, there was an effort to reduce the annual cost of living adjustment for social security by 1.1 percentage points, based on the report of a commission chaired by Michael Boskin, the chief economist for the first President Bush. At that time, "all economists" lined up behind the report, agreeing with the Boskin commission that the CPI overstated inflation by 1.1 percentage points.

This effort was defeated in Congress. Remarkably, all the economists who accepted the Boskin commission's claim that the CPI overstated inflation by 1.1 percentage points then continued to use it as though it was an accurate measure of inflation. (According to estimates from the Boskin commission, changes in the CPI reduced the overstatement by about 0.3 percentage points.) In other words, when there was a political reason to claim the CPI was overstated, "all economists" were willing to rise to the occasion. But when that reason disappeared, they ignored what they had previously asserted.

Based on this track record, the public should view "all economists" as people who are either not very good at their work, or not very honest, or perhaps both. They should not be looking to them for guidance in policy debates.

(reprinted from the Guardian)

 
 
 
  • Comments
  • 146
  • Pending Comments
  • 0
  • View FAQ
Comments are closed for this entry
View All
Favorites
Recency  | 
Popularity
Page: 1 2  Next ›  Last »  (2 total)
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
photo
dadw5boys
Disabled Vietnam Vet
09:50 AM on 07/27/2011
In 1979 a steam pipe burst and 14 women were injured from falling pipes and material.
After a month or more in the hospital most were sent home to live with the damage to their bodies.
The Company filed a Pre Emptive Bankruptcy and went out of Business only to reopen 2 weeks later under a new name.

Lawyers told 3 of the women I know there is not money for their injuries they can only go on Social Security Disability. This was Lawyers they hired to repersent them not Company Lawyers.
Since the did not know any better that is what they did. 2 of them can not lift their arms from the damage to thier necks being hit with falling steel pipes. 1 has had 9 back operations and procedures.

Things like this have been happening all around the USA for years and years. Is this not Corporate Welfare for the Lawyer to push these good hard working people off on disability without even bringing suit for damages and medical ?
Social Security Disablilty and Medicare paying when some Insurance Company gets a pass ????
photo
SevenUPtheUNCOOLA
give me reproductive freedom or give me death
11:56 PM on 07/26/2011
grandma has already NOT received a raise in the past two years because of the way the CPI is figured. what i really want to know is this: is grandma going to get a check in August? because she has a trailer payment, and utilities payments and prescription drug co-pays, and she needs to eat. she lives paycheck to paycheck like everyone else. she already knows she's going to get shafted for a cost of living increase until the day she dies. she's not planning on being around for much longer anyway, why make her life sheer torture?
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
photo
dadw5boys
Disabled Vietnam Vet
10:01 AM on 07/27/2011
Well Reagan did say Ketsup was a veggie.
Maybe Mayo is a Meat ?
Mustard a cheese ?

mmmmm mayo, ketsup and mutard sandwiches
Sure beats the Beans 6 days a week and the meat and potatos meal on Sunday that my family lived on for many years after an accident at work crippled my dad .
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gvscmr
www.seanbond.me
11:33 AM on 07/26/2011
Utterly amazing how WE (90%) of working Americans Pay for Social Security and Medicare our entire lives and because the GOP refuses to make the Super Rich (Top 10%) Pay their fair share of the tax burden, the penalty is to take retirement money away from middle America so that the Super Rich can continue to not pay their fair share.

For Those of You who believe that Not Taxing the Rich will Generate Jobs, You are deluding yourselves, as the only jobs that have been created during GOP Presidencies have been shipping US Jobs overseas.

Why do the Republicans and Super Rich not care about Social Security and Medicare? Because they are wealthy enough to pay for retirement and medical for them and their entire family.

The Voting Majority had better drop party lines and stop giving the Republicans and the Super Rich everything they need to destroy the middle class. All You have to do is look at the pure statistical facts to see this. If You are not liquid to at lease $1 Million and you vote for Republicans, You will get what You deserve in the end.
01:12 PM on 07/26/2011
The only issue that I would take is OBAMA is the one who put social security on the table.
People would be wrong to assume this was just the Republicans with Obama, naturally, opposing the agenda.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gvscmr
www.seanbond.me
02:39 PM on 07/26/2011
Yes... Social Security and Medicare should never be on the table for any reason
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
tbone99
cruisin' duality
03:09 PM on 07/26/2011
People are refusing to see the good cop bad scenario being played out , in order to get our Social Security .

Dems are expected to be grateful to Obama because his proposal is less threatening than the GOP's . What they refuse to see is that he started the conversation with his stacked Deficit Commision , knowing the GOP would take the bait , run it rightward, leaving him looking like the sane one.
Its still robbery whether done with an iron hand or a velvet glove
11:33 AM on 07/26/2011
There have been no cost of living adjustments made in the past two years, though there have been checks issued just....well, just because. As long as the government keeps the cost of food and energy out of the equation, they can say there is no inflation. The beef v chicken comparison doesn't hold up if food is not part of the equation to begin with.

"A reduction of 0.3 percentage points in benefits may seem small, but this will accumulate through time. After being retired ten years, benefits will be almost 3% lower with the CCPI.'

Baker is disingenous when he makes this statement. The baseline benefit amount will not change. The only change would be in cost of living raises. Hence a benefit increase might not happen. A more correct statement would be the increase would be 3% lower over ten years. And it sounds good to extrapolate the numbers out for thirty years so they look dramatic but what percentage of people live to 95 years old?
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
photo
dadw5boys
Disabled Vietnam Vet
10:03 AM on 07/27/2011
If they can compare BTU's in engery
they can compare protiens in beef, chicken, and other meats

Ketsup is a Veggie .... Reagan --- eat up
11:32 AM on 07/26/2011
With illegal aliens not able to collect social security, it seem their stealth control of the legislature and a president and the supreme court is making it shrink for those who are entitled to it.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
silverstreet
All you need is love
12:04 PM on 07/26/2011
Wall Street owns America -- not illegals
photo
genboomxer
Don't believe everything you think.
12:14 PM on 07/26/2011
WTF?
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Ralph Perman
Unapologetic Progressive Liberal
11:22 AM on 07/26/2011
Congress likes "adjusting" COLAs! For everybody But Themselves!!
10:32 AM on 07/26/2011
This is a great article that all Americans who receive, or hope to receive, social security benefits need to read. Very informative.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
aacme
My micro-bio is on a strict need-to-know basis.
10:15 AM on 07/26/2011
The fact that low income people already eat the chicken, not the beef, or more likely they eat the beans, would likely elude economists who didn't see the housing and financial crash coming. The fact that I saw the whole mess coming in time to sell my house and retire early to a less expensive country before it struck can be excused by the fact that I am not an economist. Maybe I can also be excused for not understanding why changes in the cost of living are not as impactful on poor people as on rich people. I guess it has to do with having so much more to spend. I mean, 3% of %10K a year is miniscule, a lousy 300 bucks, but 3% of $10 million a year is getting into some real money.
09:11 AM on 07/26/2011
It is far more likely that present political actors are more intent in creating a crisis to justify their attack on Social Security. Like abortion rights, they will attack it from all quarters just to erode it rather than risking a challenge of deliberate sabotage. Ultimately the intent is to serve and preserve the entitlements of wealth and privilige at the expense of the citizenry. Programs like Social Security came out of the recognition of needless suffering--it was a moral achievement, and that Obama seems to view it as an entitlement worthy of the chopping block during a time of economic hardship for those most dependent on it calls into question his values as well as his competence.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Matthew Christopher
07:55 AM on 07/26/2011
Maybe if social security was fully paid for by the people benefiting from it this would be an issue. However since it is not, I don't see how we can possibly hope to pay all the benefits without changing something. I am 30 years old and have no intention of counting on social security when I retire since the baby boomers will have voted themselves all the benefits before I can collect anything I paid in.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gavrielle
Empty... Empty... Empty...
08:21 AM on 07/26/2011
So, if I worked for 45 years, which is the average for most people, and I paid taxes every month into the benefits plan, you don't think I deserve to get back what I put in with interest accrued? Baby Boomers RAISED the Social Security tax rates on themselves to pay for their future needs. That money was "borrowed" by congress and IOUs were left in the trust fund, because the boomers created a huge surplus for their future use. Now, Republicans don't want to pay back those IOUs. In fact, they want to turn the trust fund over to the private sector and loot the rest. You have been misled, Matthew.

And no one ever plans to have Social Security as their only income when they retire. Sometimes, life just happens to you. Look at all those people whose pensions Congress allowed corporations to steal under certain conditions. They worked hard for that money, and now all they have left is Social Security. And all those people whose 401k plans and other investments were trashed when the housing bubble collapsed. You might have seen them working the check out counter at your local supermarket, or bagging groceries because that's all the work they could get at 70. And up until recently, you rarely saw someone of retirement age working those kinds of jobs. I'm glad you're planning for the future, but please stop assuming that no one else ever thought of the idea.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gvscmr
www.seanbond.me
11:44 AM on 07/26/2011
Bingo and You are exactly correct. This is Class Warfare of the middle class and the Super Rich. The combined net worth of the top 10% in this country is over 45 Trillion and that top 10% own 2/3 of the wealth in this country and yet pay less taxes than a school janitor. If a 35% Super Rich Flat Tax were enacted, the entire deficit would be erased and there would be a 1.25 Trillion Surplus and Social Security and Medicare would not have to be touched.

http://twitpic.com/5rs9fu/full

It is TIME to make the Super Rich Pay Equal Share in the stake of this country!

For the Record a German Citizen has paid medical benefits from the cradle to the grave an when a German Citizen loses their job they receive unemployment until a new job is secured. How is this? The Super Rich in Germany pay equal share in the tax burden.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
grammasher
01:41 PM on 07/26/2011
Very well said.
08:24 AM on 07/26/2011
Many of the boomers will have paid in for 45 years or more to be eligible for Social Security benefits and Medicare. Many of them are still are paying in. All workers have paid for the surplus 2.6 trillion.

There is supposed to be a shortfall of less than 20% in 2037. We can deal with that farther down the road. Things will be so different in 25 or so years.

I have read that one third of the boomers don't want to retire and another third can't afford to retire. It may be only one third of the boomers will retire and there will be lots of money for the future retirees. Some of each group will die before we draw benefits, too.

Once they reach full retirement age the boomers can work and draw Social Security benefits. Right now the full retirement age is around 66 headed toward 67.
07:33 AM on 07/26/2011
The chained CPI is a stealth attack in more ways than one. The secure retirement income, which Americans have worked and contributed for a lifetime, is being stolen away, hi-jacked, by greed driven politicians through so-called "economists" who can twist the numbers to please who ever is paying for them.

This stealth attack on SS is a appalling assault on the weakest economic class in our society, people who are or become unemployable. As it is, SS provides only a subsistence level of income. The chained CPI will be like a vise, squeezing the elderly more and more toward the end of life. It will be very much like pushing granny toward the edge of the cliff, and then dumping her off. The cuts to Medicare will cause further economic squeeze.

The corporate hot-shots have decided to move the good jobs offshore, leaving Americans with an extremely poor jobs market, which trends toward non-existent for older workers. Try applying for a job if you are 50 or older.

The R's have allowed Wall Street to gamble away much of our wealth in the form of housing values and and 401k accounts. We have spent what was left of the 401k's on living expenses while unemployed.

It will be an an old age of increasingly desperate existence for retirees if this chained CPI is implemented.

BTW, Fox watchers are not being informed about this, they think the R's want to protect their SS.
08:27 AM on 07/26/2011
Many won't be able to pay the $6,000 yearly increase in Medicare. Some make less than 18,000. A person living alone will draw about $12,000.

The government will have to help these people so why not leave them alone? The savings won't be much but the degrading of the elderly will be too high.
HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
indc
04:38 AM on 07/26/2011
Wherever government laws, regulations, definitions or whatever reduces discretionary income that is a tax. Obama is doing what he has done best, but is becoming increasingly less effective. He is lying about taxing people in the bottom 98%. Freezes on salaries are a tax, increased contributions to health and pensions are a tax, reducing cost of living increases by redefinition is a tax. Extending patent rights to big pharma is a tax since it delays by years cheaper generic drugs thereby taking more money out of the pockets of citizens. It is a private tax, like a private toll road, which goes to corporations. Obama has been taxing middle and lower income people since he got into office.
The massive spending on wars and more wars under Obama is a tax on the future of the American people, particularly middle and lower income citizens because these expenditures come with great opportunity costs and raise state and local taxes, including tuition at public university, many of which are being partially privatized.

Obama is to the right of all republican presidents including Bush II.

He is a disaster for this country and if re-elected will pretty much doom this country to another four years of lies, and predatory and unaccountable business practices, and insure the election of a republican in name as well as action in 2016. Obama is the worst president this country has ever had, and he has seized this title from W in only 2.5 years. Incredible.
08:31 AM on 07/26/2011
They cut FAA for some unknown reason. Instead of the Airlines selling the tickets for less, they took the money saved from cutting the FAA for profits.

What we need to keep in mind is the republican leaders hate taxes and love profits. The middle class and poor won't save a dime, but the republican leaders will turn our taxes into profits for them and their rich base. They plan to privatize Fannie and Freddie and privatize public schools.
photo
Footwarrior
Progressive Apparatchik
01:31 PM on 07/27/2011
Congress didn't cut the FAA, it just failed to reauthorize the agency. The didn't get around to doing the job they were entrusted to do. Right now, that failure is costing the US $200 million a week in lost revenue.
09:23 AM on 07/26/2011
Great, well-thought out post. Thanks!
01:26 AM on 07/26/2011
I recently went on SS. When I went to the SS office I felt like a minority. VERY few people in the waiting room were over 62. Many of the people in the waiting room didn't speak very good, if any English. SS was only intended for retirement but it's been dipped into for other things that have depleted what's available. As far as I'm concerned, if you aren't a retired US citizen, and you are in the Social Security office, you are stealing our retirement money.
HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
indc
04:43 AM on 07/26/2011
SS is healthy and simply raising the level of income of what is taxable from about 106 K to 250K would provide many decades more of solvency at current levels. I see your point, but I am not sure the money for disability is SS money rather than SS being the administrative agency to provide benefits.
photo
unionave
Old Codger
05:21 AM on 07/26/2011
http://www.ssa.gov/oact/progdata/assets.html

SS has been taking in Billions more than it pays out for several years . It does not need fixing . SS was invented to be an economy stimulator in Germany (1889) during a long depression . We copied Germany's SS during a depression . (1934) As did many other nations during recessions/depressions .

Those that have wrecked our economy know this and since wrecking is what they do , they are focused on wrecking the lone standing economic stimulus . It retires seniors to open employment for the emerging youth . Recycles jobs .

Killing the cost of living raise effectively reduces the stimulus a SS program gives to an economy .

That is why the French youth were rioting . It was their jobs that raising the retirement age was damaging .
07:47 AM on 07/26/2011
There are two seperate trust funds, the Disability Insurance (DI) and Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund. Since the DI trust fund is projected to empty in 2018, it is widely thought that a fix will be made which divert more of the payroll tax to DI. The typical estimates you hear of Social Security Trust fund depletion in 2036 assumes that the two funds are merged together as OASDI.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gavrielle
Empty... Empty... Empty...
08:38 AM on 07/26/2011
I was also recently in the SS office. Many of those folks were not there to get benefits, but to get SS cards and SS statements for other purposes. For example, if you are unemployed and need to apply for Food Stamps you need a Statement of Benefits with your application - don't ask me why, it just works that way. The same goes for anyone living in subsidized housing such as Section 8. Even if you are not the lease holder and are living with an elderly parent you care for you have to supply a benefits statement as well as other income documentation once a year, along with every member of the household so they can adjust the portion of the rent the leaseholder pays accordingly.

The Social Security office handles much more than benefits. Besides the other things I mentioned, it also handles disability claims. That, btw, doesn't mean the people applying for disability will ever get any. You are free to apply though.

So, taking all that into account, you often see apparently working age people in the SS office. Doesn't mean anything, so please stop worrying.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
grammasher
01:48 PM on 07/26/2011
Good clarification. Too many people want to believe that all of their problems are the result of someone who is poor or speaks another language. It justifies their selfishness and seems to help them sleep at night.
06:59 PM on 07/26/2011
When my sister was 18 she married a soldier just back from Nam. More NamVets died at their own hands than died in Viet Nam. Her husband lasted almost a year before he committed suicide. She was pregnant. She received social security checks until she remarried and her son received them until he was 18. They were not disabled. SS is used for more than retirement. I was unaware of the DI trust fund.

As far as people in the SS office to apply for a new card, this may interest you. http://www.judicialwatch.org/blog/2009/jul/illegal-aliens-get-monthly-welfare-checks-0 and http://articles.latimes.com/2010/sep/05/local/la-me-illegal-welfare-20100906.
01:26 AM on 07/26/2011
I know the use of chained CPI was floated as part of a grand bargain, but is this part of the current Boehner plan? Thanks in advance for any answers.
08:34 AM on 07/26/2011
Who knows. I would like to see a detailed plan by each party. I just hear bits and pieces of what the plans do.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
anthonyNtx
live and let live
01:19 AM on 07/26/2011
I know a whole lot of workers in their late 50's early 60's who are living in a dreamworld. Thinking I just have to work a few more years then I can collect social security and retire. GOD help them.