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Dean Baker

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Getting Those Republican Attacks Right

Posted: 09/07/11 11:53 AM ET

At this point, Republican politicians are beginning to sound almost like wind-up toys when they complain about job-killing taxes and regulations that keep businesses from hiring. The media should at least do the Republicans and the public the courtesy of attempting to discern if these complaints make any sense. (McClatchy gets high marks for this effort.)

If the charges are true, then there are logical implications that can be explored. The media should be taking the time to see whether the evidence is consistent with Republican claims.

The tax side of the story is pretty simple. The Republicans are making things up.

We still have the Bush-era tax rates in effect. The wealthy are paying a smaller share of their income in taxes than at any point since the Great Depression. The tax rate on corporate profits is also hovering near a post-Depression low.

Some of the more inventive Republicans may claim that it is fear of higher taxes in the future that discourages hiring, but this doesn't fly either. There is a huge amount of turnover in the labor market, especially in sectors like health care, retail and restaurants.

Even if employers were convinced that higher tax rates in 2013 and beyond would make it unprofitable to have more workers; that would hardly be a reason not to hire workers today. It's a safe bet that ordinary turnover would allow them to reduce their workforce to the desired level long before the tax rates returned to their Clinton-era levels.

Of course we created 3 million jobs a year from 1996-2000. This makes it difficult to claim the Clinton-era tax rates would destroy jobs.

The regulation part of the story isn't much stronger. It is not easy to find the flood of onerous regulations coming from the Obama Administration. The health care bill is the one Republicans most often mention. This will put additional restrictions on insurers and also require firms with more than 50 workers to either provide insurance directly or to pay a fee to contribute to their employees' health care costs.

This one suffers from the same problem as the fear of taxes story. Suppose employers fear that the higher burden imposed by the bill will be a big cost when they first take effect in 2014. Why would this matter for hiring in 2011?

Furthermore, most large firms already meet the law's requirement since they provide insurance to their workers now, and most small businesses are not close to the 50 person cutoff where the regulation takes effect. Why would these firms be constrained in their hiring by the ACA?

If anything, the ACA promises substantial cost-saving to many large firms, since Republican economists have been maintaining that companies will dump their employees on the exchanges created under the ACA. If they believe this employee dumping story, then this means companies will be looking forward to big savings when the law kicks in. Obamacare should then be leading to a big surge in hiring.

At the very least, if ACA is the big bad job-killing regulation that is scaring employers then we should see its biggest impact on the employers most directly affected. This would be either large firms that do not currently provide insurance or alternatively firms that are near the 50 employee cutoff that would be subject to the law's requirements if they crossed the 50 worker threshold. Is there any evidence that these firms have curtailed investment and hiring? If the Republicans believed their "job killing" claims then they should have mountains of it.

It is also worth remembering that if firms would otherwise be hiring, but are prevented from doing so because of fears of taxes and regulation, then we should expect them to be hiring more temps and to increase the hours of their existing workforce. If this is happening, it sure isn't showing up in the data. Average weekly hours worked actually declined in the August data, and they are still below the pre-recession level.

The same is true of temp employment. Job growth in this sector has been stagnant for months and is nowhere near its pre-recession level.

These are the sorts of things that reporters should be looking at in assessing the claims of job-killing taxes and regulation. This is not a he said/she said. These are claims about the economy that can be verified.

Tens of millions of people are suffering from this downturn. It's not fun and games. Reporters have a job here. The reporters that just copy down outlandish claims by politicians without making any effort to verify them should switch places with the one of the unemployed who would like to work for a living.

 

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12:13 PM on 09/09/2011
"These are the sorts of things that reporters should be looking at in assessing the claims of job-killing taxes and regulation."

But won't.

Because, as Jon Stewart has successfuly pointed out, the media is too lazy to get up and do their jobs properly without having to chase big shiny objects they think is important to the public.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Edward Wilkes
Poet/Stage Actor
11:39 PM on 09/08/2011
The Republicans are professional liar's!
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
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zogimperator
is this microbiology?
10:00 AM on 09/08/2011
American journalists have adopted the simple, central right-wing theme that poverty is evil and wealth is good, and there's no space between the two.

So people making $35,000 a year think they're rich, because otherwise they'd think they were poor, and therefore evil. Which means they identify fervently with people making a billion dollars a year. And journalists do nothing to disabuse them of this idea, preferring to talk about 'reforming' 'entitlements' that parasitic poor folk (and the elderly, and school children, and veterans) are 'enjoying.'

The low-information people most journalists are playing to see an immense gulf between rich and poor, and imagine they're much closer to the rich -- although they're nearly penniless. Why don't journalists do the work to explain reality to them? Because the journalists themselves believe they're one scoop away from being rich themselves. They suffer from precisely the same logical fallacy.
rocklandmike
Seeking Reason for no apparent reason
06:13 PM on 09/08/2011
There is a big difference between journalism and media commentary/editorializing. Journalists are so fearful of being labeled 'partisan' or 'biased', that they try to artificially 'level the playing field' when the skewed field IS the story. Just as employers can't be forced to hire, ignorant people can't be forced to question their information sources.
12:17 PM on 09/09/2011
Journalists shouldn't be afraid of being labeled biased if they've got the cold hard facts ready to show.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
dch58
To think is to differ.
09:12 AM on 09/08/2011
It's not taxes or regulation that's killing jobs. It's lack of demand. Corporations are sitting on the sidelines except in those countries where they is still demand for their products. I don't fault them for that. It's good business.

It also demonstrates in very clear terms why throwing the recovery into the hands of the private sector will not fix things any time soon. Supply side economics is kind of like a black hole. Eventually the consolidation of wealth results in a situation like we have here - the people that drive most of the economy (i.e., consumers) have had their wealth transferred to the top and demand dies.
04:44 PM on 09/08/2011
When was the last time government action ended a recession? The only two I can recall are Kennedy"s tax cut in 1960 and Reagan's in the early 80's. Government has never been able to spend or tax it's way out of a recession.
rocklandmike
Seeking Reason for no apparent reason
06:04 PM on 09/08/2011
Government spent its way out of the Great Depression, although it took 8 years under FDR and WW II war spending to fully recover. Perhaps, government spending's value lies in assisting in the survival of its needy. That COUNTS a great deal to those who truly care about people.
08:23 PM on 09/09/2011
I say let them keep thei Bush tax cuts. However we then raise tariffs on companies that employee more then 20% of their work force overseas, thus eliminating their profit from that practice. We could also end the loopholes which allow the rich to get out of paying their taxes like GE did last year. And finally we make hedge fund managers pay at least 35% on their income tax as opposed to 15%. It's not like they need to hire anyone.
rocklandmike
Seeking Reason for no apparent reason
05:16 PM on 09/08/2011
Faved! I have bestowed to you an "Insightful Badge". A capitalist society must FIRST use free markets to correct any inequalities or inefficiencies in the system. In the event that free markets FAIL, other methods such as those used in socialist countries ought to be in the discussion. The global economic Depression of the past three years demonstrates that the capitalist free market system is NOT the ONLY answer, perhaps not even the PRIMARY answer. Good luck convincing ignorant, closed-minded, religious zealots that decent Americans were victims of a major disaster and deserve our help.
07:25 AM on 09/08/2011
Right along party lines, it's always the republicans huh? We have the most inept lying admin in history and your credibility with me has eroded down to nothing as you do nothing but repeat them. All the spin from you and all the spin from the president are falling on deaf ears in this country, Americans are tired of lies. He shouldn't run again, the humiliation of a big loss will be devastating to that massive ego.
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Soulsurfer
Solar Electrician,Longtime Surfin'Fool
08:29 AM on 09/08/2011
Well, if the shoe fits.............why do you think the country's finances are in the toilet? Who spent us into the poor house? Just repeating what you hear on Fox is not a stance. You don't offer any evidence, just the same old broadly general accusations. Bush/Cheney were the most blatantly corrupt administration we've ever had, but due to a lack of spine, the current administration hasn't investigated or prosecuted anyone. Reagan's administration had more people indicted than any on record. Nixon was driven from office under threat of impeachment and prosecution, but was saved by his vice president's pardon. Both of them repub administrations. Check out some numbers, if you dare take off the blinders;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_by_U.S._presidential_terms
08:04 PM on 09/08/2011
Who spent us into the poor house? BOTH parties, that's who. You don't remember '07 to '11 dems controlled both houses of our congress? You have Barney Franks fingerprints all over the housing crash. Maxine Waters stole money for her husband's bank (year after year consistently makes the top 10 most corrupt politicians). All kinds of mistakes from both sides.
HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
Angie Tyne 1
I want my disagree button!!
04:18 PM on 09/08/2011
Facts:
- Deficits spiked w/each republican president; went down under democratic ones.
From US govt spending.com
http://tinyurl.com/42n2pcl

- Taxes're lower w/Obama. We should be in a boom according to trickle down.
http://tinyurl.com/3sbnwss

Reagan raised taxes on the rich:
http://tinyurl.com/2ew3hml

1995-2006 saw the biggest bubble blown since the Great Depression. The bill that ultimately repealed Glass Steagall was introduced in the Senate by Phil Gramm (R-Texas) and in the House by Jim Leach (R-Iowa) in 1999. This regulation dismantling was an abomination. Clinton should never have signed it.

The housing market was in a normal high part of its cycle when Bush gave this infamous speech regarding housing in ’02 which turned a normal cycle into a bubble of epic proportions:
http://blog.vdare.com/archives/2008/09/24/2002-bushs-speech-to-the-white-house-conference-on-increasing-minority-homeownership/

The deregulation of the banking industry and the juicing of the housing market has a direct line to what we’re experiencing now.
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
tacevad
American SS Card Carrying Socialist
10:38 AM on 09/09/2011
fanned and faved , too bad the blinders are on and ear implants to faux noise prevents those who really need to see these facts from ever doing so
05:57 AM on 09/08/2011
Every guitar making in america use the wood as gibson guitar. But gibson was raided. Gibson is a republican, and if the order the part complete from india it will lay off emplowees. Boeing builds a plant in america in SC, NLRB want to close the plant. Federal government attacking companies to support the people who donated to them and attach people with a different view then thiers. I am retired, I talk to company owners who will not hire because they do not know the cost of new regulations and Obamacare. You write a wonderful fairy tale. I sit with unemployed construction works whose jobs were filled by illegals. Other unemployed say they make more staying home taking care of thier kids and saving daycare and gas to go to work. All brought to you by your nieghbor liberal who know better but has never been a worker, unemployed or watch illegals take thier jobs while liberal fight for the illegals not the american.
07:09 AM on 09/08/2011
Please turn off your TV, for your own sake.
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Soulsurfer
Solar Electrician,Longtime Surfin'Fool
08:19 AM on 09/08/2011
And learn how to use your English language skills. I'm sure their resume' gets rejected on a regular basis just on grammar and spelling.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
ssffww
02:52 PM on 09/08/2011
Companies do NOT hire just because they have the dollars to do so. They hire because of demand for their products or services, which you do not touch upon even once in your rant. If the demand was there I doubt they would hesitate to hire because of "regulations." And who is hiring the illegals you rail against? The very companies you are speaking with who you claim are not hiring because of liberal policies. May I remind you that this country was built by immigrants who stole it from the native peoples. You probably still believe the myth that Columbus discovered America.
rocklandmike
Seeking Reason for no apparent reason
05:29 PM on 09/08/2011
You are correct. Columbus discovered the natives in the Carribean. Ponce De Leon discovered the Floridian natives. Companies move operations to foreign places because LABOR is cheaper. Part of the savings comes from the lack of local regulations regarding wages, benefits, hours, or working conditions. Why should America go back to 'sweatshops' just to compete with poor nations' desperate labor force?
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tristrixi
Hon! Ministry of Love agents are at the door!
04:05 AM on 09/08/2011
Despite the informed comment concerning the condition of the economy, the U.S. will not regain any jobs which have been lost to labor arbitrage. The government is complicit in creating and sanctioning policies which do nothing to protect national interests which many understand as production, manufacturing, and resulting employment.

As long as the U.S. continues upon its path of plutocracy and financial fraud, there is no political solution which is being offered which will rectify this degradation. If globalization is continued to be praised as the solution to our national needs, concerning wealth, earnings, employment, etc, we as citizens can expect nothing but more of this deprivation and evisceration of what was once a productive nation.

Truly a radical shift must take place where the citizens are restored as the primary reason for representative government of the people. The nature of our corrupted system provides no succor for the plebe, it acts only to suppress the citizenry in favor of the super citizens, those big people, corporations.
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tristrixi
Hon! Ministry of Love agents are at the door!
03:00 AM on 09/08/2011
I applaud Dean Baker again for speaking plainly and coherently about the present economic conditions and the political (ir)respon­se. Yet there is one point which must be noted. Until the political solution embodies the idea that globalizat­ion is an ill to our citizenry, and thus to the nation, we as a nation will never recover the jobs lost through arbitrage.

The employment gained in infrastruc­ture repair, would indeed employ many over a lengthy period of time, and the wages would indeed stimulate, it in the end would end and the jobs will disappear as soon as the funding or the project ends.

The true long term employment of a vast segment of our society has been off shored with the explicit complicity of our own government at the behest of multinatio­nal corporatio­ns. Welcome to the plutocrati­c age. What the U.S. once was it will never be again until a radical solution is imposed, one which restores the primacy of the citizen in his own governance­.
07:34 AM on 09/08/2011
Many 64 dollar words and very little content. This gov't has to get out of the way of our country's real job creators and industries. You can't keep business from off-shoring, the trick is to make it worth keeping industry here. You watch, since our admin does not understand business principles and is clueless on how this economy works, they will instead continue to attempt to punish industry and regulate our success which is not possible. Barack made a slight move in the right direction days ago by halting those EPA regs. But he didn't change his mind, he still wants to make his own laws, that move was solely a political one once the concensus came out the measure would equate to the loss of many jobs. He stood in Lisa Jackson's way because of votes. Perfect example of what an empty suit we truly have residing on Penn Ave, the guy must live day and night reading poll numbers.
rocklandmike
Seeking Reason for no apparent reason
06:30 PM on 09/08/2011
The government was 'out of the way' of the financial industry which nearly destroyed the economy and the oil industry which caused the Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill and the natural gas industry which causes cancer & birth defects with its use of 'fracking' chemicals into the water supply. I feel safer when government is 'IN THE WAY' of corporate immorality. I don't want to keep you any longer from your Fox News shows.
08:29 PM on 09/09/2011
I say tariff companies as foreign trade if they offshore more then 15-20% of their labor. You can't stop them from offshoring the jobs with the tax cuts we gave them, but you can eliminate the profits they make from it.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
mike Forrest
02:39 AM on 09/08/2011
Fact: Obama sai unemployment would not go over a certain amount!

FACT: HE FAILED!
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
maninla
www.kitchensinkradio.podomatic.com
04:33 AM on 09/08/2011
Like Bush/Cheney was a stunning success.

It all sounds so familiar...less regulation, less taxes. You tell me what went wrong under B/C then?
07:37 AM on 09/08/2011
Are Bush/Cheney still in the WH? I'll answer it for you...NO. Please don't attempt to cross any busy streets, to safely do so requires looking at what's in front of you.
05:51 AM on 09/08/2011
It's not an exact science. Sure, I guess you could say he's failing (if you strictly hold him to his hopes), but he's still trying. Just wait and see how well received any idea of his is with the Republicans. They care more about beating Obama than they do about ANYTHING else.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Lane Campbell
Say what?
01:08 AM on 09/08/2011
I've not seen it on HuffPo (maybe I was off-line), but did anybody see the article on GIbson Guitar being raided because they had "illegal" rosewood and ebony in their inventory? Seems there's this obscure law that says the US has to bar the import of any commodity based on _any_ law of the source country. It leads to some pretty bizarre results. Like imported lobster being seized because it was in plastic bags, not paper, according to a Honduran law that (according to the article) is no longer enforced in Honduras. And the Rosewood? It was illegal because it was "unfinished". If it had been "finished" in India, it would have been legal. Yeah, it keeps getting weirder. Overbearing government at work. And you wonder why Republicans want to roll back some of this garbage? It's been going on a lot longer than Obama's been around; but with the leftist baggage that rode in on his coat-tails, it can only get worse, unless it's resisted.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
ekstatik
Granfalloon-free!
02:58 AM on 09/08/2011
Maybe you should take it upon yourself to investigate rumors before you spread them.
06:22 AM on 09/08/2011
but but but but it was on faux teevee, must be true!!
rocklandmike
Seeking Reason for no apparent reason
05:03 PM on 09/08/2011
Why don't you trace that regulation back to who passed it? Maybe, there was a good reason at that time, but has since changed. It is completely UNFAIR to BLAME every problem that ever existed on Leftwingers while giving Rightwingers a 'PASS' on any wrongs that they are responsible for. With all of the problems facing our country, you come up with 'unfinished foreign wood' regulation.
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unionave
Old Codger
12:50 AM on 09/08/2011
Dean Baker is an expert at painting a true picture . The media is making an issue out of unemployment today when it should have done that 10 years ago when GWB claimed "we are in a recession" . We were , had been , and still are in the same recession . The main problem now is the money GWB and cohorts took out of circulation was so huge it will take the cooperation of Congress and the corporations to replace the money needed in circulation for an improved economy .
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
TheGreatRenewal
Naming the next paradigm
12:35 AM on 09/08/2011
Well done ... the question is ... with the media so controlled by a few and fewer investigative journalists we get very little truth or investigation. I'll read your article here but it won't be on Fox News nor put into newspapers. So your message and truths are lost to most people.

So the question is how do we get the truths out?
12:34 AM on 09/08/2011
lets face it the working class in america is being blamed for all the ills of the economy. it is are fault that the production went overseas it is are fault that the deceit is too high it is are fault that the country is in a supposed moral decline. it is class warfare for the working class to want a fare deal and fare treatment. look at the article in the american thinker where the headlines says that giving the poor the vote is like giving burglar tools to the criminals. so you workers and public who have are considering voting republican remember that; remember that is class warfare for you demand a living wage and even a job or the vote. the only class that matters in the new america is the rich. in the new america making $250,000 a year is just barely above the poverty line while a teacher making $50,000 a year is stealing that money. wake up america you have very little time before it is to late.
12:28 AM on 09/08/2011
the rich do not have a reason to invest in this country any more. in the past it was important to have an adequately trained and educated work force and a good communication system and transportation system all of those things where vital for the success of a business. but now days a very large percentage of the production is over seas and it is no longer a concern to have good roads or communications or adequately trained workers. public school teachers and public road workers are unneeded any more. the rich could care if the school system falls apart and the roads and bridges crumble they do not use them any more. it is not necessary for the wealthy to invest in America any longer.
12:14 AM on 09/08/2011
Every rich person should be required to prove they have fully employed someone - other than a blood-relative.