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Dean Baker

Dean Baker

Posted: March 7, 2011 05:36 PM

Public Pensions 101


With the recent spate of attacks on climate science and evolution it should not be a surprise that traditional defined benefit pensions in the public sector are now also under attack. There are powerful political actors in this country who are anxious to build a bridge back to the 19th century; taking us to a time where working people enjoyed few protections and could not count on sharing in the gains of economic growth.

The effort to weaken or destroy public sector unions and take away their pensions is the latest battle in this larger war. As usual, the right has been busy making things up to push its agenda, confident that the media will not expose untrue claims.

At the center of the right's story is the view that governments are somehow being reckless or irresponsible when they provide guaranteed pensions for their workers. They tell us that these guaranteed benefits will bankrupt state and local governments, imposing impossible burdens on future taxpayers.

This story can be easily shown to be untrue. While the right has been scaring the public with talk of a trillion dollars in unfunded liability in state pensions, this sum can also be expressed as about 0.2 percent of state income over the time-frame in which the liabilities will have to be paid.

In other words, if states raise 20 cents in taxes or cut 20 cents in other spending for every hundred dollars of future income, they will be able to meet their current pension obligations. This is not a trivial sum, but it doesn't seem likely to bankrupt our youth either.

Furthermore, the vast majority of this shortfall was due to the plunge in the stock market that followed the collapse of the housing bubble. Overly generous pensions were not the problem. The problem here were the greedy Wall Street types who profited from the housing bubble and the incompetent economists who did not see it. Of course the market has recovered much of its losses, so future years' pension reports are likely to show that most of shortfall has already been eliminated.

But it is important to understand the basic logic of defined benefit pensions, since many are trying to eliminate them altogether. Defined benefit pensions are in effect a form of insurance. They guarantee workers a level of retirement income based on the years that they work.

This guarantee of future income is more valuable to workers than getting the same amount of money in salary since it would be very expensive for workers to buy the same insurance from the financial industry. From the standpoint of the government, the insurance is virtually costless.

State and local governments will survive into the indefinite future. If the stock market is down any given year or set of years there is little consequence for a government offering a pension fund. Of course, a down market would be devastating for an individual worker if it happens at the point where he/she retires.

This simple logic means that governments can give workers something that is of great value - a guaranteed retirement income -- at very little cost. (Research shows that even after adding in pensions, health care and other benefits, public sector workers are paid slightly less than their private sector counterparts.) This means that because governments offer defined benefit pensions they can either attract better workers at the same pay, or the same quality workers at lower pay, than if they did not offer pensions. This is as basic as economics gets.

Not offering pensions would be comparable to a company that had beautiful grounds, with a lake and woods, and then telling workers that they could not use them. Obviously workers would value being able to bring their families to swim at the lake and hike through the woods.

When considering different job opportunities many workers would be willing to forgo somewhat higher pay to work at a company that gave them access to such facilities. If there was little cost to the company to make its grounds available, it would just be shooting itself in the foot by closing them to its workers. This is the story with defined benefit pensions; although the issue is far more important since it involves the retirement security of workers and their families.

Most private sector workers formerly enjoyed defined benefit pensions, but these pensions in the private sector are now a fast dying relic. Rather than bring about a downward leveling by eliminating defined benefit pensions for public employees, it makes more sense to take steps to re-establish defined benefit pensions for all workers.

Defined benefit pensions did not create this economic crisis. Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and the other giant banks did. It says a lot about the state of politics that these too-big-to-fail banks seem likely to survive the crisis, while defined benefit pensions may not.

 
 
 
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01:58 AM on 03/09/2011
“““The reason the private-se­­­ctor worker must fully fund her or his own retirement is this:

Corporate America has spent the past 100 years and more doing everything in its power to destroy unions. To a great degree, they have succeeded.

the private-se­­­ctor worker has no bargaining power. private-se­­­ctor workers no longer even __remember­­­__ what it was like to be able to negotiate with her or his employer on even terms. Over the past 50 years, Corporate America has destroyed the workers' memories of pensions, medical benefits, and workplace rights.

Let us take a look at a country where the worker's rights are respected and protected:

Germany.

When the global banking system was about to collapse, it was German banks that stepped in and shored up the European-b­­­ased debt that American banks held.

German workers---­­­all of them---rec­­­eive lifetime 100% medical, dental, eyeglass, and hospitaliz­­­ation coverage. They all receive ___six___ weeks of vacation. They all receive 12 holidays.

German companies cannot lay off workers without the permission of the German Government­­­.

German worker will receive a pension equal to 70% of her or his lifetime average net pay. The required payment from the employer is 9.5% of pay. The employer matches this amount.

Germany's economy is doing quite well.

Was it not the USA that won World War II? Shouldn't we have it nicer than the Germans?

The Germans get 100% free lifetime medical care. Why not us? Are we not as good as the Germans?
04:06 PM on 03/09/2011
Have you ever lived and worked there?
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07:43 PM on 03/09/2011
I know people who do and have ...your point?
My best freind lived there for 6 years when she was in the service.She loved it.My aunt is from Austria and goes back frequently to visit family.
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drumz
Those little red panties they pass the test
04:18 PM on 03/09/2011
We used to take care of our people but then raygun came in and the corporate overlords have taken over. Add all the fauxbots and here we are, F'd.
03:22 PM on 03/08/2011
Mr. Baker,

You wrote, "There are powerful political actors in this country who are anxious to build a bridge back to the 19th century; taking us to a time where working people enjoyed few protections and could not count on sharing in the gains of economic growth."

Please stop protecting these powerful political actors and name them. We should give them a chance to address our concerns and/or change their intentions.
01:33 PM on 03/08/2011
This is seriously flawed:

"The effort to weaken or destroy public sector unions and take away their pensions is the latest battle in this larger war." - it is not to take away pensions but to reduce the drain on general funds, and change work rules that have inhibited efficiency

"From the standpoint of the government, the insurance is virtually costless." - no, in San Jose CA a quarter of the cities general fund went to benefits for retirees last year ...resulting in a very difficult financial situation.

"(Research shows that even after adding in pensions, health care and other benefits, public sector workers are paid slightly less than their private sector counterparts.) " - well ..again, no...Even Willy Brown (hardly a Repub shrill) emphasized the need for action. In 2010 he wrote a widely-cir­­culated column in the San Francisco Chronicle lamenting the "out of control" civil service: "The deal used to be that civil servants were paid less than private sector workers in exchange for an understand­­ing that they had job security for life. But we politician­­s -- pushed by our friends in labor -- gradually expanded pay and benefits . . . while keeping the job protection­­s and layering on incredibly generous retirement packages."

If the author is correct, all we would have to do to solve people angst is separate the future public benefits from the taxpayer by having them funded by current and future contributions by the public sector workers.
09:24 AM on 03/08/2011
It still seems unconscionable to me that the only way to get close to affordable health insurance in this country is through employment, IF your employer offers it.

The same is true for pensions....they all seem to be at the option of your employer which puts more power in the control of corporate shenanigans.

Its a shame
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Carl Caroli
Give peace a chance
09:23 AM on 03/08/2011
The assault on the middle class has pitted brother against brother, while the big money waits to see who's left standing.
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TheDuke75
Of the People, For the People and By the People
09:23 AM on 03/08/2011
When I retire, I will only get 65% of my salary averaged over the last trhee years I work. I will have to pay for healthcare too. I don't know where people think I get this million dollar pension each month. Yes top administrators get great retiement packages that are negotiated by themselves most of the time because they are not repeat are not represnted by a union. So don't lump me or my fellow hourly workers into that pot. Most top positions are appointed by the governing body and the compensation package is negotiated with the governing body, who adhere to the addage that if you want good people you have to pay for them, the same arguement Wall St makes for their compensation packages that they negotiate.
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Cynthia Dudley
08:08 AM on 03/08/2011
Defined retirement benefits are part of what kept a Great Depression at bay this time as they were designed to do after the last one. What happens the next time the economy rumbles if the financial foundation for seniors is taken away through arrogance and stupidity?
04:11 PM on 03/09/2011
Defined benefit retirement plans are just annuities. Why does the city or state have to guarantee an annuity? Even worse, why do public employees (or their representatives) get to select the hedge fund manager to invest the money and then expect the taxpayer to pick up any underperformance by the hedge fund manager?
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unionave
Old Codger
12:52 AM on 03/08/2011
This is another great Dean Baker article ! At one time in our history we had politicians that depended on the voters for their election and reelection . During that time several public protection laws were enacted along with some public assistance programs for the needy . The Republicans always objected to those laws and programs but were afraid to block their passage . Today's politician does not depend on the American electorate . One of the public protection laws that has been rescinded is the media ownership . One corporation can now own all the media outlets in any area . With that kind of power corporations can control the outcomes of the voting nation wide . Republican politicians never campaign on life or economic improvements for the American people . Their campaigns only deal in division , distortion , paranoia , and divisiveness . And as long as these tactics get the results desired they will continue to use their media ownership advantage as is .
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JScott
John Galt's last name is McGuffin-Smithee
11:00 AM on 03/08/2011
It's mentioned in passing:
As usual, the right has been busy making things up to push its agenda, confident that the media will not expose untrue claims.

When the RW decided to consolidate media ownership in the Reagan eara into fewer larger corporations, it's no surprise the the corporate news MSM media does nothing to expose the untrue claims...............seems to me the RWNM had a plan all along and the libs progs dems didn't do anything, and now it's almost too late.
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Daphydd
Lets play some music
02:13 PM on 03/08/2011
I agree with all your points. But, I would add that new technology may expose their Achilles heel.
12:16 AM on 03/08/2011
Let's look at how a public employee defined benefit pension plan works. Each month money is paid in, either by the employee or the employer (with SS it is 50/50) based on a large number of assumption s such as how long you will work, your final salary, how long you will live and the return the money will earn. The money is typically given to a hedge fund, CalPERS or CalSTRS in CA, two of the largest hedge funds in the world. They then invest that money in the marketplace, with holding of real estate, stocks and bonds from inside the US and around the world.
The biggest issue is the expected return assumption of around 8% annually in perpetuity . If these hedge funds do not earn that return they are allowed to go back to the city or state and ask that they contribute more to make up the difference . These contributions come out of the general funding, so everytime the hedge funds underperform we have to cut services or lay people off. They typically underperform in recessions, so they are pro cyclical.

The public employee defined benefit pension is a government guaranteed annuity with an 8% return in perpetuity . Because it would cost a non public employee more than $1 to buy the same annuity the public employee is getting for $1, it is underfunded and will cause a crisis the moment the market goes down. That is why corporations stopped offering them.
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cabinetmaniac
"Without a struggle, there can be no progress. "
07:11 AM on 03/08/2011
In other words the stock market is an unreliable investment and should be treated as the crap shoot it is.

☮
01:39 PM on 03/08/2011
Nearly all investments are unreliable. Some are more unreliable than others. In general there is a correlation between how unreliable (ie. risky) an investment is and the expected return.

8% is a very high real return and very unlikely to be realized (ie. risky to try). The private sector would not be able to use that assumption. It is a bit like a Bernie Madoff...too good to be true...although, in fairness, he was worse.
06:04 PM on 03/08/2011
Correct, but the guarantor is the state or local entity. Why would the taxpayer want to play the crap shoot and not benefit from the upside but pay all the downside?
oilfield
small manufacturing business owner
12:04 AM on 03/08/2011
in a world where all must be fair......state and federal employees should have to participate in the pay a bunch of money to eat bread when you old program...aka social security like the rest of us.
01:40 AM on 03/08/2011
1) The vast majority of public employees DO pay a portion of each paycheck for retirement.
2) Not all of them are eligible for social security (many teachers unions are not)
3) As the article states (and speaking from experience), public employees earn less than their private sector counterparts. Not only do they earn less, in a majority of the positions they are not permitted to have overtime and in many of the higher pay grades, they are salaried positions (such as teachers).
4) Its helpful to do the math rather than just throwing out the numbers. Lower pay also equals a lower dollar amount when it's based on a percentage. A $50K teacher paying 5% ($208 monthly) vs a private sector position paying 10% more ($55K with 5% participation = $229 monthly).
oilfield
small manufacturing business owner
01:33 PM on 03/08/2011
so you are saying paying 5% of your pay should get you to 50-100% of your salary in 20-30 years..i doubt it...if governments were to shrink as they are, this system is in trouble. ..i am also saying what is good for the goose is good for the gander.....social security shouldnt be mandatory if public folks can participate in pensions.
11:35 PM on 03/07/2011
Again, this article is folly, more good reading.

In 1999 Davis retroactively gave a 50% increase to the pension formulas. So everyone that was already retired and was not promised this increase GOT A MAJOR boost and didn't even work for it. "Since then state has increased its workforce almost 40% since the pension formula was changed and boosted the average state worker’s wages by 50%. Local governments, meanwhile, raised their average salaries by 60%. Much of the growth came in the ranks of police and firefighters, who increased significantly in number and in pay.

The problem, particularly for local governments, is that the plans are proving to be far costlier than officials anticipated or prepared for. By their own reckoning, the 10 largest public pension systems in California had a $240-billion shortfall in 2010.

When the funds don’t have enough money to cover their long-term liabilities, state and local governments are compelled to increase their contributions. In Los Angeles, the report says, the city’s retirement contributions are projected to double by 2015, taking up a third of the city’s operating budget. It projects that governments throughout the state will have to raise their contributions by 40% to 80% over the next few years, then maintain that higher rate for three decades." Source, Uncoverage "Commission: CA Gov’t Employee “Pension Costs Will Crush Governmentâ€"

Here is a link to the Little Hoover Commission if you really want an eyeful. http://www.lhc.ca.gov/studies/204/Report204.pdf
11:24 PM on 03/07/2011
This has got to be one of the WORST and most mis-leading articles posted here. Just use CA as an example to de-bunk everything written. First and foremost, just in L.A. pension liabilities will consume 1/3rd of the cities $6B dollar budget!! In the state we will spend $5.87 billion, or 6.94 percent of our total budget! AND we have a $25B deficit! AND An independent report commissioned by the State Controller’s office suggests retiree health liabilities are underfunded by $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion in Brown’s budget for 2012 alone. So we will incur further losses and owe more money. The California State Teachers Retirement System needs nearly $4 billion annually on top of the $1.35 billion budgeted by Brown this year in order to be fully funded in 30 years. Just and FYI, CA can't print money.

The fact is we are paying a large percentage on every dollar and we are STILL short! Which means less services, less potholes filled, less teachers, less firemen etc. which makes our situation even worse.

And one more thing, I will guarantee you every job in this state will be filled regardless of whether they had a pension or not. We currently have 20+% real unemployment here with people begging for work.
01:44 AM on 03/08/2011
Perhaps you might look at how it got to where it is starting when Reagan was Governor. His California experiment went national and now look at where we are.
09:34 AM on 03/08/2011
We didn't have Unions during Reagan, coincidentally it was Jerry Brown who marshaled them in and now he's back and HAS to clean up the problem. He won't because the unions got him elected but if he doesn't, he fails.
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Daphydd
Lets play some music
02:14 PM on 03/08/2011
Narrowing the discussion to one state doesn't show anything. Dean is spot on.
02:59 PM on 03/08/2011
So you should exclude some states? There are only about 7 in the U.S. that AREN'T in this position and in total some say over $3T in unfunded liabilites. That's a lot of potholes that won't get filled. You could just as easily use CA as the GREATEST example of abuses that Dean says don't exist. Easily debunked as folly on his part.
11:14 PM on 03/07/2011
All the ignorant vitriol and wild fables about the 'public employee next door making $80,000 per year plus benefits' aside, I think I'll go with the guy that has the Ph.D. in economics.

Another article addressing these corporate sponsored urban legends:

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/03/06/109649/why-employee-pensions-arent-bankrupting.html?storylink=addthis

Those without defined-benefit plans should be pissed because corporate greed blew their 401(k), but blame the traders and their handlers, not the public employees.
11:47 PM on 03/07/2011
Again, all these numbers are based on unrealistic sustained rates of return over 7.5%. You cannot decry Wall Street (properly) for thinking the party would never stop with one breath and declare the state employee pension across the country "healthy" (improperly) with the next using the same unrealistic sets of expectations for both.
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cabinetmaniac
"Without a struggle, there can be no progress. "
07:17 AM on 03/08/2011
If what you say is true then you can't be a capitalist because sustained growth is exactly what capitalism relies upon.

☮
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OSCPJ
Want it? Work 4 it. No 1 has ever drown in sweat.
10:58 PM on 03/07/2011
I think zerohedge summed it up pretty good.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/doug-kasey-labor-unions

Doug: My take is that there's nothing inherently wrong with unions, as long as they are voluntary associations of people – they're just associations working in certain trades or in certain places. It's natural. Sure, why not?

But there are problems with the way unions exist in reality today, particularly when membership is made mandatory. That's a violation of the human right to work. When you can't work unless you join the union, and union membership is limited – often to people with political connections or family relations with union officials – it's clear that the union is not a defender of the little guy, but a kind of protection racket. It's a fraud.

That doesn't just harm the individual worker who may wish to enter a unionized field; it has broad economic consequences. When only union members can work, the union can set wages at whatever level they want. That makes the product or service in question more expensive for everyone in society. In other words, unions don't help the average working man – they only help those who can get into the unions. They hurt everybody else: non-union workers, employers, and consumers at large. And it gives union bosses extraordinary power.

L: Always a dangerous thing. As a matter of principle, whenever unions get politicians to write their wishes into law, what they do ceases to be collective bargaining and becomes naked coercion. And of course the politicians pander to the big unions; unions are big blocks of voters. How could it be otherwise?
Democrat in the South
Empathy, the most important word
11:21 PM on 03/07/2011
So are you saying unions are in it just for the big bucks and favors? That workers don't really benefit from unions? If I had to choose between a self serving for profit corporation and a union, I'd choose the union. The only alternative to unions is to go back to being exploited...or forced to compete with Chinese wages and conditions. We tried that already and THAT"S why we have unions. If I owned a business, large or small, and I had the choice to pay a laborer $7 an hour or $25.00 an hour, which one do you think I would chose? And if I had to give up some of my profits to pay benefits to that same worker, which do you think I'd choose? Again, that's why we have unions. It all comes down to who gets screwed to most. Me or you? And who do you think I would choose?
oilfield
small manufacturing business owner
12:03 AM on 03/08/2011
if you had a business, would you be a union shop?
10:48 PM on 03/07/2011
This is a terribly dishonest article. To take one example, most California public pension funds assume a growth rate in their investment portfolios of 7.5% to an astonishing 9%. This is the reference in the linked article by CEPR indicating those miniscule shortfalls. They assume year-over-year returns of 7.5% to 9% every year. If you use a more realistic 5%, which is still a fairly aggressive position, you more than triple the shortfall. And who knows what other assumptions are burried in even that number.
11:07 PM on 03/07/2011
"This is a terribly dishonest article"....why would you expect anything else. For more of the same read some of the articles on SS
11:10 PM on 03/07/2011
On top of that in that same year Governor Davis gave a retroactive 50% increase in the pension formula which was supposed to only cost the taxpayers $650M in 2011, it will cost us $3.5 BILLION!! These "rosy" scenarios for returns were based on items such as DOW 100,000. Bernie Madoff would have been proud!This article is full of misinformation as is horribly written. Fanned!