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Dean Baker

Dean Baker

Posted: May 27, 2010 06:31 AM

The Cult of Subprime Central Bankers

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The world is suffering from the worst downturn since the Great Depression. The crisis has left tens of millions unemployed in the U.S., Europe, and elsewhere. The huge baby boomer generation in the United States, now on the edge of retirement, has seen much of its wealth destroyed with the collapse of the housing bubble.

It would be difficult to imagine a worse economic disaster. Prior periods of bad performance, like the inflation ridden seventies, look like mild flurries compared to the blizzard of bad economic news in which we are now enmeshed.

None of this is new. People don't need economists to tell them that times are bad. However, what the public may not recognize is that the same people who caused this disaster are still calling the shots. Specifically, there has been little change in personnel and no acknowledgment of error at the central banks whose incompetence was responsible for the crisis.

Remarkably, this crew of incompetents is still claiming papal infallibility, warning governments and the general public that bad things will happen if they are subjected to more oversight. Instead, the central bankers and their accomplices at the IMF are dictating policies to democratically elected governments. Their agenda seems to be the same everywhere, cut back retirement benefits, reduce public support for health care, weaken unions and make ordinary workers take pay cuts.

Given how much they have messed up, it is amazing that these central bankers have the gall to even show their face in public. They are lucky that they still have jobs -- and very good paying ones at that. (Many of the boys and girls at the IMF can retire with six figure pensions at the age of 50.) Ordinary workers, like teachers, autoworkers, or custodians, would be fired in a second if they performed as badly as the world's central bankers.

What was going through their heads when they saw house prices in the United States, the UK, Spain and elsewhere spiral upward with no basis in any of the fundamentals of the housing market? How did they think this bubble would end; did they think that trillions of dollars of housing bubble wealth could just disappear without any impact on the economy. Or, did they think the bubble would never end and that house prices would just continue to go skyward forever?

How about the central bankers who allowed the euro to be imposed on a mix of economies with very little in common and no controlling governmental organization? Did they think that wages and prices would follow the same pattern in Greece and Germany? If not, what adjustment mechanism did they envision once these widely different economies were tied to together in a single currency?

Yes, many of the central bankers are now saying that they knew the euro was a bad idea back when it was established. Some of them even muttered quietly to this effect. But the central bankers and the IMF in 1998 were not making the same bold pronouncements and issuing the same directives to elected governments about structuring the euro zone that they are now doing in telling them to dismantle their welfare states. In other words, these central bankers failed disastrously -- why do they still have jobs and why on earth is anyone listening to them?

At the top of the list of villains in this story is the IMF. Its ineptitude managed to reverse the fundamental flows of capital in the world economy. In normal times capital is supposed to flow from wealthy countries with large amounts of capital, like the United States and the European countries, to the developing countries who need capital to fuel their development. Due to the failure of the IMF to establish a workable system of international finance, the flows went in the opposite direction in a huge way. The world's poor were sending their capital to the United States because the IMF gave them little choice.

It is important to be clear about the responsibility of the central bankers and the IMF for this totally preventable disaster. The first reason is accountability, something that is very important to economists who believe in economics. Economic theory teaches us that if workers are not held accountable for poor work, then they have no incentive to do their jobs well. If the central banker and IMF crew can mess up disastrously and continue to draw their paychecks as though everything is fine, what is their incentive to do better next time?

The other reason why it is important to recognize the responsibility of the central bankers and the IMF for this disaster is so that we don't continue to take advice from people who apparently don't have a clue. Before anyone listens to Ben Bernanke, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, or IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn, they should first be forced to tell us when they stopped being wrong about the economy. We cannot afford to let these subprime central bankers control economic policy any longer.

 
 
 
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12:14 PM on 06/02/2010
a now proofread REWRITE if you please: (thanx! - Peter Choyce, Zeitgeist correspondent)

THEY. The BAD PEOPLE, the nefarious individuals- is where you make your mistake. Corruption is a built in by-product of Wall street. Whoever the BAD PEOPLE are, and please, go ahead, release your frustration; name names !- the addiction to money has its consequences! Any one in charge would behave precisely the way they do as they are conditioned through their schools of eager competition and slapped on the back by their backstabbing good old boy friends. Democracy shall be spoken of but n'er applied, x'cept to give preeminance to this pestulance at the top- they who elected themselves to be in charge of the life flow of the planet. Go ahead sir, continue to toss the blame around while I sit here so very patient and eager to watch it all at last flush itself down the drainpipe of pre-civilis. Upon the oil wars and food riots must you still be blaming THOSE PEOPLE ??? Or will you finally copt to what is plainly evident, the outdated and immoral money system itself, my good sir!
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12:01 PM on 06/02/2010
THEY. The BAD PEOPLE, the nefarious individuals- is where you are making your mistake. Corruption is a built in by-product of Wall street. Whoever the BAD PEOPLE are, and please, go ahead, release your frustration and name names - the addiction to money and its consequences are just what happens. Any one in charge would behave precisely the way they are conditioned through their schools of eager competition and profit affected backstabbing good old boys. Democracy shall be spoken of but not applied, or if it ever were it would give preeminance to this pestulance at the top who elected themselves to be in charge of the life flow of the planet. Go ahead sir, continue to toss the blame around while I sit here patiently eager to watch it all collapse. WIll you still be blaming THOSE PEOPLE or will you finally copt to what is plainly evident, the outdated and immoral money system itself, sir!
10:02 PM on 06/01/2010
Nice article ! But somehow I think we're fooling ourselves to think we can deficit spend our way back to prosperity without triggering inflation and higher interest rates. The real problem we have in the world, and have had for decades is exponential growth in debt and debt service burden. Debt, of course, is leverage, and higher debt to equity ratios yield higher levels of volatility on both micro and macroeconomic levels. What we need is a movement toward higher levels of equity rather than debt in all sectors which will have the effect of reducing overall volatility and providing a more stable financial environment. Along with this we need to eliminate much of the complexity of the financial sector which serves no purpose and only enables speculators and insiders to mask unethical activities while extracting money from true investors.
Of course, to be realistic, we can expect nothing of significance to change. Those who run the show will continue to do so to their own advantage. Money and wealth will continue to buy Power. But some day the inevitable break will happen, like unplugging an ocean of oil at the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico, and the world as we know it will disappear.
12:55 PM on 06/01/2010
I'm trying hard not to get depressed. Try a little comic relief:
http://www.baitandswitchtv.com/comedy2.html
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EdCorner
Now what - more of the same...
08:52 PM on 05/31/2010
Very good article - 100% agree. "Before anyone listens to Ben Bernanke, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, or IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn, they should first be forced to tell us when they stopped being wrong about the economy." Excellent point that eludes many, by choice I'd say! "We cannot afford to let these subprime central bankers control economic policy any longer." Wholeheartedly agree. It's almost like they're trying to bankrupt the world and get everyone in debt.
10:25 AM on 05/31/2010
Ron Paul is an joke.., Just last week I actually heard him lobbying to be oil lobbied.... money he's begging for from the already corrupted establishment... Lets just stop all this "Great taste- Less filling" political excrementing and just ask the central bankers "Who they want to be President"..... When you own both superbowl teams does it matter who wins?..... Now here comes Ron Paul begging to be lobbied by a already controlling oil entity..... We have become cattle & sheep while being herded by the central banking system....
Linda from Deerfield
Paying attention
11:07 PM on 05/29/2010
Dr. Baker, I think there are quite a few examples of IMF failures around the world now -- grand economics austerity experiments that didn't work. Can't you get the New York Times or somebody to publish a timely article exposing them? A heads up from Latin America that pushing too far actually does lead to the oh-so-dreaded socialism might be just the right touch.
09:48 AM on 05/29/2010
I thought we were going to get a list of name of the actual people in their ivory towers who did this. I think that if they are not taking it in the wallets like the rest of us then they should at the least be getting a first hand earful from an aware population of people who have been adversely effected by their mess.
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Reno Fickler
Head Lifeguard/Dead Sea Marina
11:48 AM on 05/28/2010
The "average" home buyer is not smart enough to realized the $100k home @ 8% is the same place that is valued @ $200k @ 4% loan rate. The inflated value is a function of interest rates not true value. Ergo, as the rates increase the value decreases. The banks pleaded ignorance of what was going on when they got caught approving every sub-prime loan. The solution was to give them MORE money?!? Now the NYSE is fluctuating madly and those in charge are pleading "ignorance" once again. Guess who we will bail out next?
Yea, the biggest ponzi scheme ever invented (NYSE) is "too big to fail". The hedge fund manager who made $4 Billion last year ($2 million an hour for a 40 hour week) certainly is too big to fail. At least in his own eyes.
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DuncanONeil
11:04 AM on 05/28/2010
"People don't need economists to tell them that times are bad. However, what the public may not recognize is that the same people who caused this disaster are still calling the shots. "

This statement itself could not be more true! However, those people work for the Government, not the banks!
11:30 AM on 05/28/2010
Bankers own our govt. First and foremost, campaign finance reform is a must.
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DuncanONeil
04:53 PM on 06/07/2010
Campaign finance reform will do nothing to "fix" the Lords and Ladies in Congress! Just creates a new bill for the taxpayer to pay.
As for owning the Government do not forget the Unions, who seem to have a better link to Government than the Banks!
08:02 PM on 05/28/2010
Only a few work for the government: Geithner, Summers, Rahm Emanuel, to name the most obvious. Employees of IMF/World Bank, Wall Street and honchos at the Fed, are NOT employees of the government, and that's who Baker is referring to. So your attempt to extend the Rabid Ronnie Raygun mantra "Government bad; private corporations good" is a FAIL.
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02:28 PM on 05/30/2010
Geithner and Summers are busy painting themselves up and calling it centrism, when it would have fitted nicely with voodoo, and please acknowledge Geithner's role at the Fed, and Summers as a bankster before he worked for the gov't. The capture of regulatory and policy positions by bankers and those who follow bankster ideology makes them all of a piece- cut from the same cloth. The WS boys call those in gov't socialists and they call themselves centrists, when in fact they are as far right as you can go and still call yourself a market capitalist; it is a farce, except for our little teensy enslavement to service of debt. read 13 Bankers?
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DuncanONeil
04:54 PM on 06/07/2010
Sorry but the Fed is a Government entity!
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old timer 37
Retired CEO, engineer
10:51 AM on 05/28/2010
The Central Banks were set up to stabilize the economic system and reduce the rate of local and regional economic calamities. This they have done, but at a price which is an intrinsic tradeoff found in all systems… reducing local or regional failures automatically increases the probability of global ones because failures are vital mechanisms for releasing accumulated stresses. Preventing or postponing failures always increases the stresses within the system.
The book Ubiquity by Mark Buchanan discusses this issue, and forest fire prevention is one of many cases he uses to illustrate it. By preventing and quickly putting out all local forest fires, the timber load builds up and forests run together until a massive fire wipes out a region. Controlled burns (or induced avalanches in the case of mountain snow packs), are the most effective management technique for reducing the rate of uncontrollable global conflagrations. We haven’t considered controlled burns in economics, because we want to avoid pain. Our public policy is naively to prevent or postpone as many economic failures as possible…with the consequence that the very acts which cause postponement (low interest rates, massive loans) enable stresses to build up which eventually bring down the entire economic system.
Beating up central bankers for doing what they are appointed to do, postpone economic hardships, is silly. The error is ours because we believe we can construct an unfailing economic system; a fundamental impossibility; which is why the first law of evolution is to “embrace uncertainty.”
11:35 AM on 05/28/2010
Central banks have not stabilized the economic system. They created a house of cards. PRIVATE central banks and the banks that own them create most all money, out of thin air, and loan it back to us at COMPOUND INTEREST. Exponential growth of compound interest is not repayable and is a free lunch for rich people. END THE SYSTEM OF USURY.
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old timer 37
Retired CEO, engineer
11:47 AM on 05/28/2010
Our central bank was created as a consequence of the panic of 1907. Check out the rate of regional and national panics before and after.... the data suggests far greater economic stabilization. Facts are facts. We agree that central banks are not a panacea, but for different reasons. Eliminating the Fed wouldn't reduce the abuses by private banking.... only tough, enforced regulations would do that, and we seem to lack the political will to regulate anything related to the economic system.
04:01 AM on 05/29/2010
Let's be very clear, old timer - it wasn't until central banking became established that banks were able to expand credit for any length of time and the boom/bust cycle really took off. Depressions/Recessions/Panics/Slowdowns...whatever you want to call them, they are not inevitabilities. baked into the market - they are the results of the Fed's monetary policies, manipulating interest rates/money supply. Even Ben Bernanke has stated that the Federal Reserve is what caused the Depression of '29.

Jackson had it right when he dashed the first iteration of a US Central Bank. Congress/American citizens should control the money supply in this country, as decreed by the Constitution.
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old timer 37
Retired CEO, engineer
12:32 PM on 05/29/2010
Fromn1809 to 1909 there were 6 financial Panics (1819, 1837, 1857, 1873, 1893 and 1907) and no central bank in the USA. In the first 100 years after forming the Fed there has been one major panic....1929-1941. The Fed was, in hindsight, complicit in producing and lengthening our Depression in two ways: too low interest rates and too loose credit in the 1920's which fueled speculation and borrowing (much like the error it practiced from Greenspan on throught Bernanke to create the housing bubble) followed by overly restrictive, gold related, credit policy once things went south. Smoot-Hawley then crippled international trade. The first nations to get out of the golbal Depression (France for example) were those who effectively abandoned the gold standard and loosened credit in the early 1930's. We stuck to the gold standard and kept credit tight, until WWII.

I seriously doubt, having read Ben Bernanke's "Essays on the Great Depression", that he ever took such a simplistic view of its cause. I suspect you may be quoting something out of context. I do think that he is over-reacting to the lessons learned from the Great Depression and leaving interest rates far too low for far too long.
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old timer 37
Retired CEO, engineer
12:41 PM on 05/29/2010
Also, the boom bust cycle is an intrinsic feature of the economic system. It's primary source is the collective beliefs of people about the economy and its risks. Human beliefs are primarily based on past experience, the longer things have gone well, the more people believe things will go well in the future. Our beliefs, metaphorically, are looking into the rear view mirror to make decisions about which direction to drive and what the traffic conditions are. The delay between the reality of the present and the collective beliefs about it produces a feedback oscillation.... a boom bust cycle. One of the danger signals in economics should have been the collective belief of economists from the 1990's on that we'd solved the riddle of boom-bust and could prevent it. Again, that was based on the history of the previous decades, not on any particular understanding of economics. For more on this I suggest reading Paul Krugman's "The Return of Depression Economics", first written in the 1990's.
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Romeover
Civilization is for weaklings.
05:39 AM on 05/28/2010
I keep hearing how "wealth was destroyed" in this "economic collapse"; it is a complete misnomer.

Our military destroyed wealth in Iraq.

Wall Street stole wealth in the bubble and the collapse that followed.
08:59 AM on 05/28/2010
You're missing the point that without central banks controlling the monetary decisions and printing money such as our Federal Reserve that the war could not be so easily funded, nor businesses able to make bad decisions when fiat money can just be printed to give to them to cover their mistakes.
I don't understand why progressives complain about the "bad corporations", when those that are bad are only enabled by central banks. Paper money is not wealth, but actually credit on the backs of the people, as that money is not backed by anything but the potential of the people to create wealth and thus taxes, either directly or indirectly through inflation, will take from the people the fruit of their labors. This is what happens when you want government to be in control solving the problems of the world, it gets made big enough to oppress the people, rather than merely enacting a legal system and protecting the people through a police or military force.
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SWRichmond
09:19 AM on 05/28/2010
A great many of the world's ills can be traced straight back to central banking. The welfare/warfare state is made possible by central bank inflation. Central bankers privately, and some times even publicly, acknowledge that inflation is a hidden form of taxation. Unnaturally rapid economic expansion is enabled by central bank inflation. Want a place to put the blame for rapid resource depletion? Look no further than central banks and their credit bubbles.

The world's central banksters are aware of our own increasing awareness of them and their misdeeds. KEEP UP THE PRESSURE.

When this bubble finally bursts for real, we must be certain the blame is laid where it belongs: on the notion that a global economy made up of billions of souls can be managed by a few people on a committee. The viability of that idea died with the Soviet Union, yet we continue to want to believe it here in the West. It's a myth, as childish and stupid as Santa Claus.
11:38 AM on 05/28/2010
Bankers own our govt. Govt is broken because of the private corp takeover of govt. Ben Franklin inspired good govt is possible but not when corps, banks, and their military are in control.
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Scott Zwartz
11:32 AM on 05/28/2010
Wealth can be destroyed in more than one way.

When people work, they are paid in dollars. Money is a concept invented by man. It allows people to translate various things and services into a common denominator, the dollar. The value of anything is based upon the assent of others. The system works very well. Charles, a man in his 20's, can say, "we agree that my work equals $50,000.00, but I need only $25,000 right now. Thus, I will give Joe Corp. $10,000, who will use my money to make more money and when I am 65, Joe Corp. will start paying back the money I gave him when I was 25, 35, 45, etc." Joe Corp. agrees.

Thus, the concept of money along with the concept of a pension allows a Charles to preserve his wealth over decades. For several generations, Joe Corp. had to follow rules (regulations imposed by the government) to make certain that the value of Charles' money did not decrease. We have to remember that the money Charles gave to Joe Corp is Charles' wealth. He worked hard for that money and he could have spent it as soon as he got it and have bought something physical. His decision to trust this massive conceptual system of money did not mean that his "abstract concept of $10,000" was any less wealth than if he had bought a car.

see below
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Scott Zwartz
11:36 AM on 05/28/2010
When Joe Corp, however, invests Charles' money in defective bundled mortgages, Charles' money disappears. When the bundled mortgages turn out to have no value, Charles's wealth is destroyed.
The matter is worse when there is systematic fraud of millions of Charleses. In the abstract system we have, Joe Corp. was supposed to loan Charles' money to Ted, Bill, Mary and Sally who would use that money to build factories, provide services, make inventions. Ted, Bill, Mary and Sally never received Charles' money because Joe Corp. used Charles' money to buy worthless bundled mortgages. Thus, the entire society was deprived of the benefit of Charles' money.

Thus, wealth can be destroyed by bombs, but it can also be destroyed in other ways.
05:35 AM on 05/28/2010
Very fine article. I think it gets to the point. As a Spaniard, and Spain is mentioned in the article, I can tell you a couple of things about the building bubble there. Real estaters touted ---and banks didn't disawow them-- that real estate would double its value every two or three years, so only fools wouldn't invest in it. I don't know if real estaters and bankers did believe it, but the majority of those affluent enough --and many that weren't affluent, but decided to take the risk-- did believe it. Human greed is always attracted by the idea ---for much nonsensical it may be-- of getting rich in a very short time. The consequences: Spain alone built as many houses, appartments or condominiums as the rest od the European Union, and now no one knows what to do with them, many people have been ruined, and many more are unemployed.
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Romeover
Civilization is for weaklings.
06:27 AM on 05/28/2010
It's not just "getting rich in a very short time" that attracts greedy people.

It's getting rich without having to do anything to deserve it that attracts greedy people.
Linda from Deerfield
Paying attention
09:27 PM on 05/29/2010
Thank you for a first hand report that proves American home buyers and speculators were not the only greedy suckers! There are people in the U.S. who want to lay the blame for the whole global crisis at the feet of the most gullible Americans who thought the train might leave without them, unaware that sheer speculation was pumping prices to impossible heights. I ask how these supposedly awful people managed to crash Spain's market first, and then the U.S., the U.K., Ireland -- pretty much the whole western world.
04:11 AM on 05/28/2010
Enron- The Smartest Guys In The Room - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o5clNtt7PgM
More relevant today than when it actually happened - in fact the same criminal practices and fraudulent accounting and market manipulation never has never ended -

"What was going through their heads when they saw house prices in the United States, the UK, Spain and elsewhere spiral upward with no basis in any of the fundamentals of the housing market? How did they think this bubble would end; did they think that trillions of dollars of housing bubble wealth could just disappear without any impact on the economy. Or, did they think the bubble would never end and that house prices would just continue to go skyward forever?"

The same above (quoted statement) could have easily been applied to Enron and their energy scams with minor substitutions. Bubble = Ponzi - Housing = energy - Spain = California
03:31 AM on 05/28/2010
"IMF" in Africa especially, is apparently believed to stand for Infant Mortality Fund as their proscribed policies lead to huge increases in child mortality rates.