iPhone app iPad app Android phone app Android tablet app More

Featuring fresh takes and real-time analysis from HuffPost's signature lineup of contributors
Dear John Thain

Dear John Thain

Posted: November 4, 2009 08:27 AM

One Year Later: The Post-TARP Questions We Should Be Asking

What's Your Reaction:

In the time since T.A.R.P. was enacted, there has been a lot of debate over how the government has done. Some of this debate, obviously, is difficult to truly judge -- what would have happened without T.A.R.P.? No one knows. What if we required different things of T.A.R.P. banks at the onset? No one knows.

However, while we can't decisively compare outcomes of choices that were made to alternative choices (certainly a double edged sword in a political debate), we can ask why certain decisions haven't even been tackled. In fact, there seems to be a huge deficiency in tackling very basic issues! Is there a legitimate reason to have not even proposed a solution to institutions being and/or becoming "too big to fail?" I can't think of one. Let's ask some of these questions.

1. How have we fixed the broken incentives at banks?

If we're being honest, the flash point of the public debate has always been compensation. And, by the way, not incorrectly. Consider this: the argument has always been that we need to honor contracts and that saving the banks saved us from a worse fate.

I generally buy into these arguments. However, how is it not fair to say to someone, "If we didn't step in and save your firm all the stock in it you own would have been worthless forever and you would have been out of a job. We saved your firm, but on the condition that you were paid no more than $250,000 while we own it ... Is that not more than the zero (even less, counting the devaluing of your prior stock compensation) you would have received without us?"

This reasoning is perfectly consistent, but instead we're told that that this "talent" (the audacity of that term, referring to people who were at the most broken institutions, is tantamount to lying and laughing at taxpayers at the same time) needs to paid millions or they will go elsewhere. I'll deal with this argument in more depth later (coming attraction: What have we done about institutions being "too big to fail?"). However, gently putting aside this argument (for a later thrashing) still provides us with a myriad of criticisms we can level at the administration for being totally incompetent when it comes to ensuring these sorts of problems don't occur again.

Now, as an astute reader of the news, you're probably wondering, "Hasn't the pay czar helped with this problem?" Well, I'll let the WSJ explain why you're misinformed:

Already, Citigroup Inc. is telling employees the net impact of Mr. Feinberg's rulings will be minimal because the cut salary will be shifted from cash to longer-term stock grants, said people familiar with the matter. (Emphasis mine.)

Whew! Thank goodness we're getting tough on the banks that were reckless! And then, it turns out Mr. Feinberg did the banks the favor of removing the risk from a large portion of their compensation: he boosted base salaries at these firms, fearing top employees might leave (I also fear a leviathan will crawl onto land and end life as we know it). For those unfamiliar with how Wall St. compensation works, the variable portion that can be cut on a whim without recourse is the bonus--by increasing the salaries, he increased the money that is guaranteed.

Regardless of the aforementioned actions, we still don't have a good answer on how firms will tie their own fortunes, in the long term, to that of their employees. Why won't a trader at Bank of America take a big risk hoping for a big payout? What recourse will shareholders and other stakeholders have when decisions made years ago cause problems today? None of these issues have been addressed on a systemic level. Nothing has been innovated to fix these problems and no action on the part of the government has dealt with excessive risk taking by individuals within the institutions that are now their wards. Although, its fine, I'm sure none of the people Mr. Feinberg is trying so hard to retain would ever make bad decisions that could put a massive financial institution in peril. Which leads me to...

2. What have we done about "Too Big To Fail?"

The one thing everyone seems to agree on is that institutions that are "too big to fail" are also "too big to exist." Not only has there not been any movement on solving this problem, but there isn't even a hint of a plan for the institutions that currently fall into this category.

These institutions need to be gutted, broken up, and sold. Instead, they are allowed to limp along and do whatever they can to continue to exist. For example, the argument about needing to pay employees large amounts of money so they won't go to other institutions is a symptom of this problem. Would these firms need to pay so much if they were stable? Why do we want people who can generate revenue sitting at a firm where they won't have capital to use? And, if they are given capital to use, is this how we want to risk taxpayer money, ensuring that star employees at failed institutions can take enough risk to justify their pay?

There's an extra layer to the problem as well, management is out of options. If you back an animal into a corner, it just attacks because it needs to get out of the corner to survive. A comparison, I believe, is apt. Now that the government has declared to the market that these firms are backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government, they have just facilitated more risk-taking. As a matter of fact, wasn't this why the government hand-picked replacements at A.I.G. and forced a management change? If you keep the old management, the incentives are for them to try to dig themselves out of the hole, and now they have an implicit government guarantee to help them take even more risk ("Hey, we're backed by the government! You know that it's not going anywhere!")

Further, why should any institutions slow down its own growth? History will dictate that, once a firm is large enough, it has to be saved--by continuing to pay millions and keep management, you're giving no disincentive for future firms. The government needs to put stiff rules in place that will prevent institutions from getting too big, and breakup the ones that exist now. Of course, everyone else agrees that's a good idea as well...

3. What is the administration's exit strategy... for T.A.R.P. banks?!

I know in other realms people tend to harp on the lack of an "exit strategy" a lot. Why not with the banks? If what we've seen actually occur is any indication, there can't possibly be a plan here, and that's not just disappointing, its dangerous.

If private industry has so much to teach us, according to the critics of "public industry," then we should take a play out that book and take aggressive action to get our investment recouped. Changing management, selling parts of these firms, and merging with competitors should, in essence, be forced upon these institutions. Indeed, this has already begun to happen organically at some institutions (think Ken Lewis and Bank of America).

I do not, however, take this non-forced action as a positive development, but a large, looming omen of bad things to come: if an investment firm purchased a distressed company and then waited around, without interfering, hoping that company would right itself... Well, I can't imagine their investors being too happy about their "buy and prey" investment strategy. In fact, I would say they were negligent, in the event anything went wrong--to have control and not exercise it is a tacit endorsement of the current course of action.

Dear John Thain writes the anonymous blog by the same name. His experience in the financial services industry includes extensive time in trading and working with securitized products. He is anonymous so that he can continue to provide an untainted insider's perspective and expertise on a myriad of topics.

 

Follow Dear John Thain on Twitter: www.twitter.com/@dearjohnthain

In the time since T.A.R.P. was enacted, there has been a lot of debate over how the government has done. Some of this debate, obviously, is difficult to truly judge -- what would have happened without...
In the time since T.A.R.P. was enacted, there has been a lot of debate over how the government has done. Some of this debate, obviously, is difficult to truly judge -- what would have happened without...
 
 
  • Comments
  • 22
  • Pending Comments
  • 0
  • View FAQ
Comments are closed for this entry
View All
Favorites
Recency  | 
Popularity
06:18 PM on 11/06/2009
1. How have we fixed the broken incentives at banks?
We haven't.

2. What have we done about "Too Big To Fail?"
Allowed them to become even bigger.
Assured them that endless "bailout" funds will be at their disposal.
Given them trillions with no accountability or transparency.

3. What is the administration's exit strategy... for T.A.R.P. banks?!
Bwaa hahahaaa!! Stop! My sides are aching!! Hang on... I have to wipe the tears from my eyes...
The administration has demonstrated NO intentions whatsoever of curtailing this massive financial coup. It is going to be up to us, a massive movement of citizen opposition, to see any change from the blatant ongoing pillaging by the banks and our corporate government.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
01:54 PM on 11/06/2009
The only truth about all of this is "Nobody has a clue who is in charge". . . and nobody has a clue how to fix it. Americans are about to repeat the civil unrest of the 60's but it won't be about race. . . this time it is about oligarchy's and their attempts to create class systems bases on capital systems. Main Street versus Wall Street. Once people loose their fear that they 'might lose their house or their job' , especially since a lot of them have lost them already. . . It could be a 'no holds barred' affair.
photo
humanbeing-rick
Born in the USA 1947
05:33 AM on 11/06/2009
Why do the federal regulators not do their jobs? Why is the Federal Reserve and Federal regulators in cahoots with the financial industry? Why did we allow the investment industry to hijack the banking industry? Why has executive pay become so excessive?
Most Americans cannot understand the complex financial instruments and trading markets that have been devised over the last couple of decades, but we do know when we are getting screwed. We may be slow to realize it, but we do now, and we want something done about it now.

This government by the people and for the people will be brought down if it betrays us.
We want satisfaction now!
12:02 AM on 11/05/2009
The question we should be asking is why are Mel Watts and Barney Frank so against an audit of the Fed?

http://wallstcheatsheet.com/breaking-news/a-less-than-opaque-look-at-mel-watts-motivations-to-kill-the-audit-the-fed-bill/?p=3361/
04:29 PM on 11/04/2009
There are only a dozen or so comments here but I'm surprised that people still swallow this whole 'argument' without a peep. Nobody has heard of ANY plans to deal with the too-big-to-fail financial institutions? Nobody is aware that TARP money has and is being paid back? You wouldn't call that an 'exit strategy'? What about Elizabeth Warren? Even she is doing nothing to address these problems?

I was happy when Obama backed off the plan to directly deal with executive compensation at some banks who received tarp money and not at the majority of other banks who didn't. It was a hysterical and even if all salaries at all the tarp institutions were cut to zero, the average pay of workers at large banks wouldn't be affected much at all. Even if he were to drastically reduce average pay across the board at institutions that make some large amount in profits, how does that help anybody?

It's not fair that some people negotiated contracts last year that said they'd get payed no matter what. Fine. Can we get somebody to pay attention to the reforms being worked on by the treasury and congress right now? I've noticed that even Krugman doesn't get on here anymore. Instead, we get John Thain, writier of the influential blog, Dear John Thain.
11:16 AM on 11/05/2009
Europeans regulators have already decided to break the "too-big-to fail banks and insurance companies. Why can't we have a similar firmer position on this issue baffle me. It is fair to assume that it happens because notwithstanding all his heralded intelligence, Obama chose to put in charge of the process people who were responsible for the problem as well as many former wallstreeters at the Treasury and the Feds who are deeply invested in continuing the status-quo. This " bonus for retaining talents" argument is an insult to our intelligence because those individuals are responsible for all the bad judgment calls that resulted in the blow-out. Those are not "talented individuals". they are greedy financiers only interested in creating new derivatives (as it is now shown) to make more money for themselves. They are not interested in helping Mainstreet and will never accept any effective regulation of their cash cow.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Siebenstein
> there is no endless growth
04:45 AM on 11/06/2009
Europe has a different mindset.

Here it is: me first
In Europe it is: we need to do something for the greater good

This does not exclude crooks which exist there as well, as we all saw, still, the mindset is more socially oriented. You guys are trained to be on your own , so you can be controlled easier.
02:48 PM on 11/04/2009
The inventors of Tarp program should be tar(p)ed and feathered and then ran out of town on a rail.
06:04 PM on 11/06/2009
Beautiful!!
02:11 PM on 11/04/2009
The most important question we should be asking is:
When is the government going to enforce the law and arrest the criminals who stole money from the Treasury?
04:18 PM on 11/04/2009
That is sooo the most important question.We would all feel better if some one went to jail. Then those good feelings would make us feel like buying new clothes, which would help us at job interviews! Crisis averted.
11:18 AM on 11/05/2009
this will never happen. Congress is owned by those bankers as Senator Dick Durbin stated a few months ago!
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
rollingrock
12:21 PM on 11/04/2009
Letting the too big to fail zombie banks go under would have been a vast improvement for the economy. They were the cause of the economic meltdown in the first place, so keeping them in on life support with our tax dollars makes no sense. We would have been better off letting them die once and for all. It would have been a great relief to release all the dead weight. But the zombies are still alive, like the walking dead, thanks to Bush and Obama and they are back to their crooked ways. Should have pulled the plug when we had the chance!
11:53 AM on 11/04/2009
I don't know what everyone is worried about, Timothy Geithner keeps assuring us that we are making great progress (I am being sarcastic)

There is another GREAT Huffington Post article, outlining what about 20,000 homeowners are doing to help themselves. They have started a petition to Congress, and it speaks on behalf the completely gagged and bound homeowner who's fate seems to be last on the list of considerations right now.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/richar..._b_342665.html

It's really more about saving those banks. We have allowed these banks to become SO large, and to tightly woven into our government (in fact, I can rarely see a division between the two any more) then it's logical that in order to save the country that our homes are IN, we must first save the banks.

Here's the problem: They aren't going to be saved, because the SERVICERS are still FORECLOSING on homeowners and calling the OWNERS of these mortgages and saying, "Sorry Mr. Investor, we had to foreclose. After deducting our huge foreclosure fees and incentives, you now have a huge loss... Sorry about that!"

WE ARE PAYING SERVICERS TO FORECLOSE!! WHEN is the government going to UNDERSTAND THAT? INVESTORS need to demand modification, short sales, whatever it takes to keep people in their homes.

I urge you to sign the petition, not to help a homeowner necessarily, but to SAVE our country.
Link to the Huff article: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/richar..._b_342665.html
photo
batmancw
Turn fear against those who prey on the fearful
04:09 PM on 11/04/2009
Great article you linked to! I loved what the lady said about FICO scores, because that "game" that's been played on all of us is coming to an end. As Dave Ramsey, points out, once you get over the addiction to credit and start to "pay as you go" (wow, what a concept) you don't need a good FICO score. If you can put 20% down on a house (as used to be required, and is starting to be again) AND can document your ability to pay via your income, you can buy a House, PERIOD. My wife and I both have 750 FICO scores, are ranked in the "lowest 5% risk to lenders" and have had our interest rates jacked up and access to credit shut off. FICO scores are a "mind-game" the banks used to be able to get way with. Now that more and more of us see that we're getting scrooooed anyway, they just don't matter.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
TJCole
10:27 AM on 11/04/2009
Both Bush's Tarp and Obama's were the biggest thefts in world history, massive redistribution of wealth to the most corrupt of our Ruling Class..we get the crumbs that fall from their table...!

So it worked just as Bush and Obama intended..!
12:46 PM on 11/04/2009
TJCole: nicely-stated. You are spot-on and your brevity cuts right to the chase.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
TJCole
01:12 PM on 11/04/2009
Thanks Venusvic...!
iridium53
Semper Fi
10:16 AM on 11/04/2009
You might also ask, what effect this has had on Main Street?

Student loans are more difficult to come by.
Small business loans are now non-existent.
Business credit cards mostly cancelled, some of those companies that provided business credit cards have gone out of business themselves.
Credit card rates and consumer loan rates have soared beyond all reason.
Foreclosures have increased and increase at an increasing rate.
Home loans are very difficult to get now, were impossible until quite recently.
Millions of people have been put out of work - with millions more to come.
Some have been out of work so long the extended unemployment benefits they received have run out.
Untold increased numbers of homeless - apparent to any city dweller.

Did I mention that many millions of people are out of work and that the numbers keep getting larger?

The reason that the government is so confident about the 10% number is that so many fall off the "back side" of the unemployment roles because they've been unemployed so long - that the government conveniently and cynically stops counting them.

But, Obama, Summers, Geithner and Bernanke made darn sure that the executives at the big banks got their compensation assured. And, the taxpayers got the bill for that too.

Thank you Obama.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Jimboy17
12:55 PM on 11/04/2009
While I was no fan of Bush, thanks for pointing out (as I did to much pillory in another thread) that Obama has done exactly nothing to fix the problem. In reality, he has made it worse, precisely for the reasons that you outline (and a few that you don't).
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Carl Caroli
I just don't understand people
10:00 AM on 11/04/2009
And yet the experts, Geithner, Summers and Bernanke, are all working to maintain the status quo, defending the banks and letting TBTFs get bigger. Go figure.