I was on Canadian network BNN last week. It is earnings time for banks and as much as I loathe talking about economic safety and soundness through the distorting lens of equities I attempted to field questions. It seems that "earnings per share" is looking better at some banks this quarter and people are asking if the time is "now" to get in on the gamble. The buzz must be hot to get people to pony up because I'm getting emails asking if I think this is the bottom of the well. Just a reminder, brokerages earn a living by charging commissions on the volume of transactions, not on the gain or loss of the investment.
As I tried to explain on air, picking through the lint in my belly button I'm not sure that today is the equivalent of the day Ford was at $1.00/share for the banking sector. We're still seeing a lot of accounting based earnings coming from numbers in a computer being moved from one ledger to another creating what - in the time of Sarbanes-Oxley (remember that?) - would be categorized as one-time events. As for me, I still see banking as a supporting cast service provider to the economy. I'm waiting to see indicators of fundamental change in the direction of Main Street. Everything else is what the Wall Street townies call "optics" when happy hour comes around.
The continuing decline of domestic economic reinvestment
It's not looking all that great on Main Street. Domestic economic reinvestment continues to slumber like Sleeping Beauty waiting for true love's kiss. It's weird really. How else can one explain the juxtaposition of "exceeds analysts expectations" with "six one-hundredths of a percent of real growth" in the same news cycle? These are the times when the solace of perspective is best found by ignoring volatility and focusing on the deeper trend lines.
Just so you know the overall amount of commercial and industrial lending by banks in the United States eroded by about 1/3rd from roughly $1.4 trillion in Dec-2007 to a bit over $1 trillion at the end of Sep-2010. Not to make light of a $400 billion dollar loss in going concern domestic economic investment by the banking system, but the really shocking numbers are in the unused line of credit commitments of banks to U.S. business. This is the canary number I like to look at because it is a direct expression of banking and finance confidence in Main Street industry. It's gone from $92 billon in Dec -2007 to just $24 billion as of Sep-2010. More importantly, the vast majority of this contraction of credit availability to American industry has been by the larger banks, C&I LOC from $87B down to $18.8B by the institutions with assets over $10B. Poof!
We are now entering the fourth year of our saga. The kicking the can down the road approach to preserving banking infrastructure as a vital national resource continues. It's now been husbanded by both a Republican and a Democratic White House. Both have succeeded in preserving banking. The "can" itself - the US domestic economy -- is still getting smaller. Is that really the best plan we can come up with?
So what can you do?
Next time you interact with your bank, ask them to tell you more about they are doing about expanding loan production. Ask specifically to tell you some details about what they are actively doing to clear away their remaining impediments to new lending. Are they modifying or disposing of whatever non-performing assets they have to get them back on track? How else are they using their resources to invigorate the Main Street economy? How are those line of credit commitments to small business commercial and industrial borrowers coming along towards recovering to pre-2008 levels?
Some bankers will balk that you'd dare to ask such questions. Others will gladly wax on about all the things they are doing to make things better. You'll certainly learn something about who's being a responsible banker and who isn't. Be prepared to be both disapppointed and pleasantly surprised.
Bear in mind that these questions aren't about small versus large. They are about discovering where decency and responsibility still are in America. It's there. The task at hand is to find and reward it. Remember that in America the voices of ordinary people still matter. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.
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