A new report put out today by The Century Foundation urges the start of serious peace talks among the parties to the Afghanistan War. The report warns that even with the massive influx of U.S. troops over the past year, the war has settled into a stalemate in which neither side has a credible potential to eliminate the other on the battlefield. As such, the only credible path to an end to the Afghanistan conflict is through serious negotiations, which must begin now.
The Century Foundation's call for serious negotiations to end the war reinforces the message pushed by the Rethink Afghanistan campaign for months, specifically that the only feasible way to end the war is through a political settlement, and the longer we wait, the less acceptable the settlement is likely to be. From the foundation's report:
For all sides, the longer negotiations are delayed, the higher the price is likely to be for restoring peace at the end. While negotiations will involve difficult trade-offs and priority-setting, a substantive agreement that would end the war in a way acceptable to all parties is possible. The sooner a peace process starts, the better the odds that a genuine peace can be reached well ahead of 2014.
Earlier this year, a report by Felix Kuehn and Alex Strick van Linschoten showed that current U.S. policy was standing in the way of negotiations and allowing more radical elements, who are less open to negotiation, to take control of the Taliban. This latest report reinforces the view that the sooner the U.S. abandons its demand for a de facto surrender before talks can begin, the better.
The Century Foundation's report also relayed the importance of withdrawing troops from the war:
A willingness of ISAF troop contributors, and particularly the United States, to accept a phased withdrawal will thus be an important component of any political settlement. In negotiating a phased withdrawal with the Afghans, there will need to be consideration of the capacity of the declining force levels to deter signatories from reneging on their obligations during the transition period, as well as a consideration of whatever residual elements, if any, the future Afghan government might wish to request after major forces have withdrawn, and what ongoing military training, assistance, and support--if any--the Afghan government would seek for its own security forces.
This new report is just another indication that the ongoing war isn't making us safer and isn't worth the cost, and the time is now to start real negotiations to end the conflict.
You can read the Century Foundation's full report here, and a webcast of the event is available here.
If you're fed up with this war that's not making us safer and that's not worth the costs, join Rethink Afghanistan on Facebook and Twitter, and find others who agree with you in your hometown at your local Rethink Afghanistan Meetup.
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The Taliban understood this ten years ago. Their strategies and tactics have long been adapted to this situation; they may not even want to "win" on the battlefield,they may have greater political leverage at the local and regional levels in a stalemate.
And it's clear that US strategy is not about "winning" anything either, it's simply maintaining a military colony next to Iran and Pakistan, leveraging military intimidation on the economics of the region - indefinite war there enhances the profits of our MIC corporations.
In short, the war is as both sides wish it.
What the American people need to do is bring pressure on the US government demanding an end to US involvement. When it becomes clear the US is intent on leaving, the Taliban will be more likely to negotiate, in an effort to stave off a tribal/civil war in which their positioning and chances of success are no longer very clear.
Alas for all, that civil war is inevitable - but at least the US need not be stuck in it.
They don't get more leverage out of a stalemate. They get more leverage if the U.S. goes home too early and they can achieve a battlefield victory over the remaining ANSF. As this report makes clear, though, the new pace of ANSF training is revealing that this "wait till the Americans go home" strategy won't work. The ANSF will be too strong to overcome on the battlefield.
The report does not agree with you that the Taliban will be more likely to negotiate if we leave. The Taliban have long said there's no incentive for them to negotiate because the Americans will soon leave and they are winning. What makes the Taliban likely to negotiate now is the realization that their current strategy will not achieve their goals, thanks to increased U.S. commitment, not less.
-FB's Card-Carrying American
But keep trying, you may work your way out of the 'conventional wisdom' rhetoric eventually....
Now more than ever, it is important not to conduct a hasty retreat or a precipitous withdrawal.
There are several critical things in the report that many in your organization seem to disagree with. I recommend they read the report!
Page 18 of the report summarizes the current strategy's success:
"Meanwhile, despite proclamations of inevitable victory from Taliban leaders in Pakistan, some former Taliban privately seem to accept that its progress in recent years has provoked sufficient counterforce to contain it.
------more below
"...The Islamic republic that emerged from the Bonn process has delivered some tangible economic and social improvements...It is developing a sizable army that aspires to professional standards and that, despite problematical ethnic imbalance in its officer corps, appears to enjoy the respect of much of the Afghan public...Taliban forces are sustaining punishing blows that appear to be decimating their mid-level leadership...The lock they had regained over Pashtun areas in the south and east of the country has been disrupted...by intensified U.S.-led military operations. ...The alliance between the government and the forces deployed by NATO remains a formidable obstacle to any prospect of an outright Taliban victory."
Seems the current strategy has actually been bearing fruit. It also talks about the threat of the Taliban:
pg62: "While there have been reports of tensions between the two prior to the September 11 attacks, when the Taliban were providing al Qaeda and its foreign fighters with sanctuary in their country, the fact remains that, despite persistent, significant international pressure, the Taliban would not abandon their al Qaeda connection...There are...serious doubts in the international community that the Taliban and al Qaeda are separable."
I hope the report causes an evolution in the thinking of many of your group members that think the war effort isn't producing results and that we go home this month.
A quick withdrawal would be a disaster to the report's goals.
-FB's Card-Carrying American
http://tcf.org/publications/2011/3/afghanistan-negotiating-peace
I don't claim at all that the Rethink Afghanistan campaign and the Century Foundation agree on all points. Where they do agree, however, is that there is no military solution to the conflict, that negotiations are the only way out, and that the time for those negotiations is now.