Hillary's 2012 End Game: Part 2

Hillary's silence is deafening. And it's, in some measure, the reason why Obama's lead has disappeared against McCain.

Of course, this was predictable given her acrimony during the primary season. All that's happened, since her ungracious concession, has been an announcement that Bill Richardson is going to try and help them raise funds to pay down their huge primary campaign debts and that she will campaign for Obama in Florida and Nevada.

Clearly, the Clintons are aiming for 2012. They began doing so when they turned nasty against Obama during the primary marathon. They are betting, and by so doing they are helping, McCain win a one-term presidency. By that time, Hillary will have been re-elected to the Senate and Bill's business activities and some questionable associations will be ancient history. But that's just Bill's "fairy tale" ending.

Here's what I wrote in the Huffington Post about this on June 1 followed by a few quotes from HP readers who now look prescient:

By Wednesday morning, Hillary and Obama will up neck and neck in popular vote, give or take 100,000 votes between them.

That means the pressure will be on for him to make her his running-mate.

But she may not be interested. In fact, she will likely turn down recruiting efforts. If you take the Clintons at their word Obama is doomed to failure so why would she want to go down in flames with him this fall against McCain?

It's not like she hasn't made this perfectly clear. Her feelings about Obama's inadequacies have been articulated and broadcasted for months.

She has said he is an untried rookie who shouldn't get the nod and can't beat McCain. Her character assassination has been subtle but effective: The reference to Bobby Kennedy. Her doubts about his beliefs, (he's Christian or so they tell me). Her attacks on his manhood. Her husband's description of Obama's entire campaign as a "fairy tale."

All these statements and others will be generously splashed across Republican ads this fall to the point that some voters, who only wake up to their democracy during elections, may actually think she is McCain's running-mate.

Joining the Obama teams means she will have shot herself in the foot beforehand.

So what emerges is what I believe is the Clinton no-lose strategy.

They have used Obama's unelectability as their excuse to continue running against him even though they cannot win because, by saying he's unelectable, they help in part to bring about his defeat.

His defeat by McCain would make them look really smart and also set them up for the nomination and run in 2012. This is based on their professed logic that only Hillary can win against McCain; McCain will be a one-termer because he will be decrepit in four years and there will be a job vacancy in 2012 for the White House.

The tricky part for Hillary will be to appear to be a team player if she declines the VP slot or isn't even asked. Obama will offer both of them something in return for a few stump speeches made in between long absences from the campaign due to "exhaustion."

Here are a few choice comments from HP posters following this entry which point to why Obama is lagging and not getting Hillary's voters.

Bakossi wrote:

The tricky part for Hillary is that if Obama loses this fall, a lot of his supporters (myself included) will be as angry with her as her supporters are with Obama. We will look at the exit polls, look at how many white older women, for example, went over to the other side because of her repeated gender card plays, and begin organizing immediately (b/c a lot of the grass roots organizers are Obama supporters) not only to deny her any chance at the 2012 nomination, but to unseat her from the Senate as well. Unlike Lieberman in Connecticut, if she loses the Democratic primary in NY, she's toast, and we may support an independent against her as well, just to make sure. If her supporters decide a term of McCain is just 'punishment' for alleged Obama 'sins,' our attitude is going to be: "why not two?" So to Hillary supporters in advance, if this is the plan, we're letting you know: WE told YOU so.

Nostalgia:

Someone has to pay Clinton to play.
"Negotiations are understood to be taking place between the Obama and Clinton campaigns about the Illinois senator helping to repay some of the massive debt incurred by his rival. One of Hillary Clinton"s donors said that the former First Lady"s campaign was as much as $40 million in the red.

Dawlishgal:

She has already damaged Obama to the point that she can't do much more harm, and she has inflamed her crazy people so that they won't vote for him even if she tells them to. But, hey Obama might win anyhow.
And she can't be expected to campaign for him because Hillary does not campaign for presidential candidates....remember 2000 and 2004 where she and Bill sat on their hands and waited for Bush victories so they could keep the seat warm for her;

Fourex:

My guess is that Bill and Hillary will actively undermine the Obama campaign in the general election. The animosity they displayed to those who supported Bill's eight years in the WH is mind numbing. Then they disgustingly courted the Bush bigots to continue the race. They have the hubris to slander most of the party and then run as Democrats in 2012.

Paralogos:

From the moment Hilary Clinton endorsed John McCain over Barack Obama in the famous "commander-in-chief test" soundbite, she made it clear that she is NOT a team player. She staked everything on grabbing the nomination this time. If she fails - and it sure looks as if she is failing - her aspirations to be the Democratic candidate for president, or indeed to hold any national position for the Democratic party, are dead. That's one of the reason's she's carrying on so desperately.

Lisakaz:

She probably is angling for 2012 but make no mistake: Obama supporters DO NOT WANT HER AS VP. Sorry. To present this like that door is open is its own "fairy tale" I think.

But as many commentators have pointed out recently, Carter led Reagan in the polls until the 1980 debate when Ronnie landed a KO punch just as Obama likely will.

What do you think?

Comments

[mollybrown]

First, Obama accused the Clinton's of being racist. Racist!?! A man who worked for decades to break through racial barriers, who placed his office in the heart of Harlem. A women who has fought for minority issues as a Senator... INSANE. And now they Clinton's are almost going overboard with their campaigning for Obama and STILL his supporters say it is not enough. Well....
Pat Buchanan was right - Hillary supporters are definitely a sisterhood, and many of us are not so easily swayed. Hillary may be gracious, but we don't have to be. Obama was wrong and he has never apologized. Bill Clinton did a lot for minorities in America and Obama dismissed his good work with a wave of the hand and words accusing him of being a racist. How ungrateful, how disrespectful.
We understand why Hillary must convince her supporters to vote for Obama - she is a great party leader and that is what great leaders do, but as unfortunate as it may seem, the truth is that there are still many of us out there feel that a vote for McCain is a vote for Hillary 2012. Did you hear her speech? Amazing! And she has a senate record of actually DOING not just talking.
Obama supporters can feel however they want come 2012. Hillary told Obama she was running for president and asked for his support. He gave it. Then he went behind her back and registered to run. Yeah... great sportsmanship.... real class.

[BritChik11]

As a Brit this 'team player' crap that everyone is critisising Bill and Hillary for is ridiculous.... if there was ever true "Flip Flopping" it would be to run against someone, lose the nomination and then turn around and give them your blessing going to point of even supporting, chearleading and fundraising for that person!! Why the **** should they?

That's the problem with Amercia - no one is allowed to lose and be pissed about it... everyone gets a trophy and everyone just puts on a smile, pats the winner on the back while secretly stabbing them there......... we may be arrogant and bitchy in Europe - but at least we're HONEST and don't suffer fools gladly.

[BritChik11]

McCain 2008 / Hillary 2012 - we shall overcome!!! NEVER underestimate the loyalty of Clinton supporters!

[morefromLA]

What is sad is that a man so maddeningly talented and charismatic could be so unbelieveably petty and pouty that he would allow this part of his dark side out. And the worst is that if Obama wins he'll get another pass and if Obama loses ... he'll get another pass. But his wife is not forgiveable, she has no pass if Obama loses.

[Yohomegirl]

I'm registering voters in Western NC like a maniac. 26 Last week, and I'm at 10 for this week. I'll beat the 26 this week, and keep on 'til the 10 of October. We SHALL overcome! Obama 08!!!

[saltysea]

way to go, yohomegirl!

[blaqntelligence]

High Five yohomegirl.....!

[Republicnotademocracy]

Dream on, baby!

[JaneEyrez]

It would be really encouraging if people would remember that Hilary was ruthless in her diminishment of Obama during the primary, to the point of saying that she and McCain were ready to be President and all Obama had done was give a speech. As far as I can recall, Obama was never anything less than courteous and generous to her, so I feel that he has ever reason in the world to distance himself from the Clintons and their "winner take all" brand of politics.

[Johnnn]

Neither Obama nor Hillary will ever be President. We will cancel each other out. The smart thing
would have been for Obama to wait until 2012. Now the Republicans will keep the White House for 8 more years.

[customgreen]

I don't see Obamas lead evaporate. It is at 5% and has been there all along. The trend has stayed the same. This post just seems like a veiled "why can't he close the deal" statement that we heard over and over again. I don't see anything here but an attempt to try to get the animosity between the two camps going again.

[benjaminblue]

Again, Mrs. Clinton's run was, essentially, a thmb-in-the-nose gesture toward the 22nd Amendment.

The Clintons had their co-presidency (as they themselves called it) in 1993-2001, and they are not eligible to run again.

We've had more than enough rule-bending/breaking with Mr. Bush, and especially now we need leaders who will honor the actual spirit of the law.

No more talk -- now or in 2012 -- of Mrs. Clinton as a presidential contender. If we expect our leaders to respect the Constitution, then so must we, as the electors.

[RobertArend]

Hillary Clinton wrote an oped about the obscene war profiteering blessed by and rewarded by the most corrupt administration in this nation's history.

If interested, you can find that oped here:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121798030763715107.html

[chucktrotter]

"The institution of Royalty in any form is an insult to the human race."

Mark Twain

[Doofus]

It's going to be Obama's run for the Presidency. It might be 'nice' to get
more support from the Clintons, but given their high negatives, not
essential. Let's admit it, we're over them. Many are, anyway.

At least til 2012, if it goes unexpectedly badly for Obama. Hillary is
a consummate politico, people will pay for her to run. If she
has the chance, she'll be baaack.

[saltysea]

Chuck Todd just stated that Hillary's supporters were "led to believe" that she had more support than she did, and if she goes for a nomination vote, she will lose by more than she did the first time.

Finally, someone telling it like it is.

posting this around.

[Bisharama]

Make no mistake, if Barrack does not win, its no one's fault but his own. The Clintons have their marker in history. If Barrack isn't good enough to win this I'm sorry but he isn't up to the task of being President. This is about Barrack not the Clintons. Take responsibility. Stop whining and get to work. Barrack is our nominee. He's the man. Its his responsibility to win this thing. No one elses. The way Barrack's people talk about the D party and the Clintons is how they talk about me. The Barrack folks better win this. If he doesn't win this time he will never be President. Deal with it and get to work.

[coloradosiren]

Either way, Clintons can forget 2012. The perception out here is they are not team players.

[allonfla]

Yep. If he loses , there will be tons of conspiracy theories about the clintons and after 4 more horrible years under mccain - O's supporters will be so skeptical and bitter Hillary would not have a chance in heck of winning in 2012

[4real]

If Bill wants improve his image he needs to swallow his pride and come out swinging for Obama. We all know it was a tough fight between the two of them but Obama won and it's time to move on.

I can almost guarantee if Obama had lost the nomination he would be out stumping hard for Hillary and firing up his supporters to back her.

It's sad to see people have so much pride in their hearts that they can't wish someone else the best and do all they can to help.

[Republicnotademocracy]

The last thing Obama needs is a paragon of racism trying to stick his red nose in this campaign.