Iranian-American Tells Why He Believes Ahmadinejad Got More Votes (UPDATES)

Updated 7.14.09, 7.25.09

ANN ARBOR, MI -- Years ago in Ann Arbor, an Iranian expat repaired part of my piano. Ahmad lived and worked in the basement of an apartment building on the leafy University of Michigan campus. His "space" was lined with musty old books and funky metal filing cabinets. An oscillating fan, a hot plate, and a dead computer were the only signs of life in the room.

Once upon a time this big bear of a man and his wife were prominent figures in Iran. She was the glamorous director of glittering cultural events. He was supportive and professorial -- the kind of man who spoke with a twinkle in his eye. Together they enjoyed the good life. But life turned on a dime when the U.S.-supported Shah of Iran was overthrown in 1979. Suddenly everyone associated with the monarch found themselves in grave danger, especially the men. Ahmad dove into the Persian Gulf and swam to freedom.

By the time I met him in the early 90s, Ahmad had been living in Ann Arbor for over a decade. His children were attending school in New York City, and his wife had moved to Manhattan to be near them. Ahmad's melancholy living situation didn't depress his desire to teach, which he still does in Michigan.

While visiting Ann Arbor this week to check out the city's summer music festival and the newly expanded University of Michigan Museum of Art, I visited Ahmad. I was eager to hear what he had to say about events unfolding in Iran. I figured he would say he was pro-Mousavi, and very eager to see Iran revert back to the modern country it once was.

I was wrong on both counts.

* * * *

Are you following events in Iran?

Ahmad: A little. My computer doesn't work, but friends are calling me on the telephone with information.

Are you pleased that so many Iranians are protesting the Ahmadinejad victory?

Ahmad: Ahmadinejad won. Even if they do a recount, you will see that Ahmadinejad won.

Seriously? You think he won fair and square?

Ahmad: In Iran, many people believe Ahmadinejad is backed by Russia and China, and they believe Mousavi is backed by the United States. That is why it is not difficult to believe that Ahmadinejad is the choice of many voters. Maybe he did not win in the relatively cosmopolitan city of Tehran, but I think he probably did get more votes in the rest of the country.

But when the Shah was in power, Iranian girls wore shorter mini-skirts than American girls. It's hard to imagine any of these women, who are now in their 40s and 50s, voting for Ahmadinejad.

Ahmad: Well, today more women have college degrees because of Ahmadinejad's initiatives.

But when they graduate, can women find jobs?

Ahmad: These things take time.

* * * *

Of course not everyone agrees with Ahmad's gut feeling about the election results. Many Iranian women who supported Mousavi worry that the election may have been stolen from them. I wrote about it here.

Over at Politico two bloggers wrote: "Ahmadinejad won. Get over it." -- you can read Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett's post here. HuffPost's Taylor Marsh roasted the Leverett's post here.

HuffPost's Nico Pitney is liveblogging the events unfolding in Iran. You can read his updates here.

* * * *

5:00 PM Update

At first Ahmad's comments really annoyed me. I expected him to say that Ahmadinejad is a fanatic who wouldn't think twice about rigging an election. How could anyone vote for Ahmadinejad? But today the Russian news agency Rosbalt indirectly offered some insight when they published Eugene Pozhidaev's thoughtful analysis of the situation in Iran: The Middle Class Against The Ayatollah. Here are excerpts:

(The Russian-to-English translation is partly mine, so if you notice a crucial error, please let me know in the Comments thread.)

The election results coincide with Iran's geography. The riots are almost entirely concentrated in Tehran, Isfahan and Shiraz, while the ever-rebellious Azerbaijan Tabriz is fairly quiet.

So who is for and who is opposed to the current Iran? Remember that with the coming of Khomeini, a large part of the modernized elite and middle class left the country. Meanwhile, under the Islamic regime, life expectancy in Iran rose from 50 to 70 years, the proportion of the population with access to safe water increased from 51% to 92%, and infant mortality fell from 169 to 35 per thousand. These successes were achieved against a background of extremely rapid population growth.

Iran spends 5% of its gross national produce on education -- more than Japan, Russia, Luxembourg, the Czech Republic, and many other advanced countries. Equally impressive has been Iran's technological development. In other words, the Islamic revolution has not been a total failure, so the confrontation between the Iranian middle class and the traditionalists was inevitable.

What is my forecast? The revolution will not be -- yet. The protesters number in the thousands, not the millions. The new Iranian middle class is not sufficiently strong. However, with demonstrations like this, it is only a matter of time. Of course there is one important condition: that Iran not revert back to the Stone Age.

7.14.09 Update

Iranians around the world are creating and signing a Green Scroll proclaiming Ahmadinejad is not Iran's president that they plan to unfurl from either the Eiffel Tower or Toronto's CN Tower on or before Ahmadinejad's inauguration. Read more. The post includes a slideshow.

7.25.09 Update

The Green Scroll was unfurled in Paris today. At two kilometers in length, it is the longest petition on record. Read more, with video screen grabs from live coverage of the ceremony, posted on Ustream.

Follow Diane Tucker on Twitter: www.twitter.com/dianetucker

Comments

[miriada]

I heard from my Iranian friend, that poor people in Iran are all for Ahmadinejad. Therefore, middle class Iranians from Tehran who are for Moussavi, are really against the poor people who feed them. What a pity.

[marcusfrancisco]

That is the same feedback I have repeatedly heard from Iranian-Br­azilians..­. but surprisingly enough you guys in america are getting bombarded by the one point of view that will get the backing of good americans to "liberate" the iranian people... hope you guys have gotten smarter, specially after your recent history. Best wishes to all of you.

[red sea rose]

"But when the Shah was in power, Iranian girls wore shorter mini-skirts than American girls. It's hard to imagine any of these women, who are now in their 40s and 50s, voting for Ahmadinejad."

Herein lies the problem with the Western feminist understanding of Islamic cultures. Hate to tell you ladies, but freedom isn't about mini-skirts or bikinis. The West should get over the hijab as a symbol of repression and just see it for what we all see it as, a piece of clothing.

Clothing doesn't cause oppression, people, and governments, do.

[rodii]

Great comment.

[Diane Tucker - Huffpost Blogger]

Ditto!

[wayne92587]

"The West should get over the hijab as a symbol of repression and just see it for what we all see it as, a piece of clothing.

Clothing doesn't cause oppression, people, and governments, do."

----------­----------­----------­----------­----------­----------­----------­----------­----------­----------­-----

Are you saying that Fundamentalist Islam does not oppress woman?

Fundamentalist Islam is dead in Spirit.

The election is not at the seat of the unrest in Iran.

The lack of Freedom is at the seat of the unrest in the Islam World.

Do Fundamentalist Islamic Women walk at the side of the Fundamentalist Islamic Male; I think Not.

Every wonder why the Fundamentalist Islamic Woman wears Black and the Fundamentalist Islamic
Male wears white.

As idiotic as it may sound there is more to it than you can imagine.

And I saw when the Lamb opened one of the seals, and I heard, as it were the noise of thunder, one of the four beasts saying, Come and see. 2 And I saw, and behold a white horse: and he that sat on him had a bow; and a crown was given unto him: and he went forth conquering, and to conquer.

I would say to the Pharaohs of Islam should they have ears to hear, " Set the People Free!"

[Diane Tucker - Huffpost Blogger]

***"Are you saying that Fundamentalist Islam does not oppress woman?"

No. But I think Catholicism oppresses women, too, and yet for some reason it never bothered me that I had to wear a veil to church when I was a young girl. It bothered me more that I couldn't be an altar boy. (The name says it all, doesn't it?)

***"The lack of Freedom is at the seat of the unrest in the Islam World."

Today in the Russian press, a writer said something I think you might enjoy:
"Is what is happening in Iran like the Velvet Revolution in Eastern Europe? My friend and brilliant journalist Trudy Rubin, who knows the problems of the region, believes the answer is no. Her opinion is that unlike the Eastern-European dissidents, who were oriented to the West and America for many years, Iranian protesters are not pro-Western, not anti, not radical in their objectives, not revolutionary. They want to reform their society. To be more open."

***"Every wonder why the Fundamentalist Islamic Woman wears Black and the Fundamentalist Islamic Male wears white?"

Yes. Why do they?

[red sea rose]

I'm saying it's not about hijab, and that our attention in the West gets diverted from serious wrongs over an abaya and tarha. It's a smokescreen.

[watchful123]

I totally believe that Ahmadinejad is backed by Russia and China. Why not?...both countries are backing North Korea. They're why NK keeps making threats to the US.

[BassMonk]

Try again.

[monty7]

Of course Ahmadinejad won, many of us knew all along that we were witnessing U.S. propaganda at it's finest. Not that any Americans who bought into the propaganda efforts are going to admit it now of course. It's just going to make them more hot under the collar and more anxious to get out their bombs.

[benoosh]

I am Iranian and I know the kind of person you are talking about. These people are called "dayijan napoleon" in Iran, based on a satirical novel about them. They belong to the older generation. Most of them were supporters of the Shah, and had positions in his government. They believed that anything that happens in Iran is directed by English, to a lesser degree by Americans. Your guy is a dusty old person from that generation. He still believes that everything in Iran is run by foreigners. In no way at all you can compare him to an average Iranian. I am appalled by how Americans are ignorant of what is going on in Iran right now. Nobody in Iran believes like that. Ahmadinejad has a stable vote of around 5 million, based on his past election results. I believe even that vote has been reduced hugely during the 4 disastrous years he was the president. The extra 35 million votes registered now was by people who came out in force to vote against him, to anybody but him, just to get rid of him. These people would have voted for Satan itself if he was the only other candidate in this election.

[jaleh]

Benoosh, I am an Iranian/American and left Iran during the Shah. I totally agree with you. I have no idea what this Ahmad guy is talking about but I think Iranians have been trying to get rid of the Mullahs after the first year they took power. My 82 year old moslem mother prayed for Bush to be elected so he would attack Iran and get rid of the Mullahs. I don't actually know anyone like this guy, do you?

[Diane Tucker - Huffpost Blogger]

I just added an update to this post. Curiously, a Russian analyst and commentator sounds alot like Ahmad.

[thepoliticalcat]

Benoosh and jaleh, I agree with both of you that Ahmed represents the fossils of the Pahlavi's rule, but there is one other thing that I find worrisome. Robert Fisk recently wrote in the Guardian that when he talked to people in the more rural and working-class areas, they were slightly more supportive of Ahmedi Nejad vs. Mousavi. Fisk thinks that Ahmedi Nejad won, but by a very tiny margin, around, say, 49% to 46 or 47% for Mousavi. Given G. W. Bush's "victories" in the U.S. elections, I wonder if that is not a possibility? I would really appreciate your opinion on this. Thanks, tpc

[Diane Tucker - Huffpost Blogger]

Fisk is a veteran Iran watcher and a good read. Click here for a list of his recent reports on Iran:

http://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=robert+fisk+iran&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8

[bbbear]

I hope you're right. However, since the Brits and we Yanks have for decades been stirring the pot in Iran, what makes you think they/we have backed off? I'd wager CIA's finger is still twirling away in all nations of the ME.... Hey man, the Pentagon intends to conduct a 50 year war in that area. You know, for the sake of ME democracy... uh, and the right of Big Oil to take the largest share of the profits while the US controls who they sell it to...

[Beltiras]

We will never know. The statistical analysis on the election results show us that the election was rigged.

[Beltiras]

I meant to say: of the election results. Apologies for the grammar flaw.

[BARRY08]

I disagree with that assessment...

if they had won fair and square, why not do a re-count ?
why sent international press out
why suppress Internet
why not come clean and have a re-count

sorry, do not buy it - tell it to the HAND

[bbbear]

Thank you for an interesting and timely blog. Based upon a few email comments from Africa and other exotic places, plus an excellent editorial in the Nation, "Turmoil In Tehran," dated July 6th, 2009, I suspect Ahmad may be right. Ahmadinejad probably won. Without a doubt, the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is heavy handed, but then so is the US Supreme Court, especially when it effectively led the coup that ousted President Al Gore.. That is, uh, maybe that's politics as practiced in so-called "democracies." Had we the timid sheeple taken to the streets the US police/swat/army reaction may have put the Kent state shootings to shame..

[Jesster]

Hmmm bbbear: THAT is powerful - but painful. There are so many things that go on and on - that even the biggest of hearts cannot hold...

UNLIKE Al Gore (I am sorry to say) you probably will not win the popular vote with your opinion of how (supreme???) "democracies" operate... and how excruciatingly docile and intellectually lazy (mindless) we as a people have become - and I make no pretense of being in anyway "superior" to anyone (although I do at least vote in every election...)

[bbbear]

LOL, true, neither of us will win any popularity contests... I said much the same as my last comment to an pal yesterday over coffee. A few heads turned our way and I could feel my friend's discomfort before he loudly said something like, " Well, I love this country! It's been good to me! I've been in this wheel chair for 29 years and live well. I have excellent health care, a very nice condo and I know you do pretty damned good too... Hell, you've even got tri Care for life, thanks to the USAF and Uncle Sam!
I replied. " All true, and the U.S. is still one of the free-est nations on earth. There's no doubt, even in this market anyone, provided s/he is driven, can still make oodles of moola..There's just so many ways to do it! Still, not everyone is driven to amass money. Some people simply want to have decent paying jobs and support their family's... And live well rounded lives. So sure, you and I are okay, but what about the over 40 million people who don't have health care? Shouldn't all of us demand they get it, as well as demanding that their children have a shot at University?

[dsws]

Gore was president-elect, not president. He was not ousted: that would mean that he had taken office and then was removed.

[bbbear]

Yeah, and single payer universal health care is bad for the people. And unions are terrible things. And people should know their places in life. And the Corporation is all good and so is Ayn Rand and the godly notions of The Fountainhead.

[Diane Tucker - Huffpost Blogger]

Hello BBBear,

This evening I updated this post to include an op/ed piece that appeared today in the Russian media. The Russian analyst and Ahmad are kinda on the same page. I'm not saying they're right, but it's always interesting to hear different points of view.

Time will tell?

[bbbear]

Good morning Diane,
Thanks again for presenting a thoughtful piece on Iran and not merely tracing the footsteps of Corporate Media's talking Air Heads.