Suddenly Obama's Auto-Policies Matter: Michigan Is The New Florida

"If he carries Michigan, many routes to victory are open for Barack Obama. Without Michigan, he's got a big problem," said Washington Post columnist E. J. Dionne Jr. "Michigan could be to this election what Ohio was in 2004 and Florida was in 2000."

What should Obama understand about Michigan? People here are suffering. They've lived with a deep economic recession much longer than the rest of the nation. And now they are demanding attention, and looking for the candidate with the best answers and solutions. Traditional party lines have evaporated -- which makes Michigan the ultimate swing state.

Obama must understand also that as goes the automotive industry, so goes Michigan. How do voters feel about the candidates' auto-related policies? OffTheBus asked Peter M. De Lorenzo, author of The United States of Toyota and founder of Auto Extremist, the Internet magazine devoted to news and analysis of the car biz. For nearly a decade De Lorenzo has been a"must read" for policy makers looking for the unvarnished, high-octane truth.

You often say, "It's clear Americans don't care about Michigan." Why should we?

Peter M. De Lorenzo: The Detroit automakers are either directly or indirectly responsible for at least 1 in 14 jobs in the U.S. If people in this country don't think a bankruptcy at one or more of the Detroit manufacturers won't affect them -- no matter where they live -- they're sadly mistaken. On top of that, the continuing erosion of our manufacturing base in this country has reached the crisis stage. We cannot exist simply as a Starbucks Nation of mindless consumers. If we lose the ability to manufacture hard goods in this country, then I fear for our long-term future as a nation.

Detroit automakers have been "crying wolf" for the past five years -- saying they're "12 months away from going out of business." How long do they really have?

I can tell you that the situation is precarious. There is no crying wolf, not by any stretch of the imagination. Chrysler will not survive past 2009 no matter what, because Cerberus Capital Management simply bit off more than they could chew. GM and Ford have eighteen months -- tops -- if they don't get things rolling again.

What's your perspective on the short-term government loans that are part of the debate? If the U.S. government offers some kind of bailout, will auto executives get it right this time? Their track record isn't very good.

First of all they are loans, not a bailout. Without access to money at more favorable interest rates one of these companies will fail. And the country can't afford that. Will the manufacturers get it right this time? Yes. As a matter of fact, they have been doing things right for several years now, but are finding it almost impossible to gain the consumers' consideration -- at least in America -- due to past transgressions.

For years the domestic automakers have fended off more stringent fuel economy standards. In retrospect, did it do more harm than good?

The CAFE system was a flawed program from the very beginning. It was unrealistic, reactionary, and it actually prevented the domestic manufacturers from developing long-term solutions and technologies. Higher gasoline prices have made more of a difference in our nation's fleet of vehicles in the last six months than any CAFE standard ever did.

What happens if Detroit retools, then oil prices drop like they did after the oil shocks of the 70s? Would Americans return to their gas-guzzlers?

It won't happen, on either count. The era of cheap energy is over for America and we'll never be able to go back. Sure, Americans will still need a diverse line-up of vehicles including trucks because, believe it or not, people still do real work in this country and they're going to need real workhorse vehicles to get that work done. But faddish embracing of SUVs and urban cowboy pickups? Those days are long gone, never to return.

What is your perspective on John McCain's proposed $300 million prize to the auto company that develops a next-generation battery?

It is a monumental waste of time and total campaign B.S. because $300 million won't buy squat in that arena. McCain and his handlers are clueless and amateurish when it comes to the auto industry. Just showing up at a plant saying he "cares" about the auto biz doesn't mean he "gets" it. Far from it, in fact.

McCain also pledged a $5000 tax credit for zero-emission vehicles, with less money for reduced emitters like plug-in hybrids. Obama proposes a $7000 credit for advanced-technology vehicles, plug-ins included. Who has the better plan?

Let's be frank here. Michigan is a key swing state right now, but what these candidates are saying to get elected has exactly zero to do with what they'll do once they get to the White House. Any sort of cash incentive to get manufacturers to build more efficient vehicles -- and to get people to buy more of them -- is an admirable thing. But let's not forget that if people just make smarter choices (like they've been doing lately), this nation's energy usage will go down dramatically. So who has a better plan at this point? It's hard to tell. The fog of the campaign is masking real ideas.

Obama wants to accelerate the commercialization of plug-in hybrids. What is your perspective on this?

The guy has great speech writers who know how to turn a phrase, but I don't believe they have a clue what the hell they're talking about. People will buy cars that meet their needs for dependability and efficiency. But don't ever forget that people also want to drive cool, desirable cars -- and the presidential candidates are not qualified to figure out what that means.

What are you hearing about the election behind closed doors?

The top auto executives are focused on just one thing: S-U-R-V-I-V-A-L. People outside this business have no idea just how precarious it is for these automakers right now. They're running 24/7 trying to make it work. It is grim. The loans will help a great deal, but these executives don't see a clear winner between McCain and Obama. They know the difference between campaign rhetoric and actual understanding of the issues.

Michigan is being called "the ultimate swing state" because voters blame both parties. What's your perspective?

Michigan has been in a recession for three years now. We're teetering on a full-blown depression. People in the rest of the country don't care -- and we get that -- but it's the harsh reality. As for the candidates, the voters here are disillusioned and beyond cynical. They look at McCain and Obama as having to choose between the lesser of two evils. Optimism left town a long time ago around here.

Which candidate is better for Michigan?

At this point the jury is still out. How they react once the loan money is in place will be telling. Right now, Obama seems to "get it" slightly more than McCain, but no one's lighting up the "I Get It!" meter. Detroit is the canary in the coal mine for America's manufacturing base, and until I hear one of the candidates say that, then they're both mired on Clueless Island in my book.

***

Michigan has chosen the Democratic presidential candidate in the last four elections, and Barack Obama needs to extend that streak. In a poll conducted on Sept. 20 for The Detroit News and television stations WXYZ, WILX, WOOD and WJRT, Obama leads by 1 percentage point over John McCain in Michigan. A recent CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. poll reports the race is a dead heat.

McCain leads by 14 percentage points among whites in the Great Lakes State. The Republican also has an 18-point lead in the Detroit suburbs -- surprising since they split about evenly between Bush and Kerry in 2004. A recent AP-Yahoo News poll finds that the percentage of voters who may turn away from Obama because of his race could easily be larger than the final difference between the candidates in 2004 -- about 2.5 percentage points.

Rasmussen Reports, in partnership with Fox Television Stations, found that Obama has an eight-point lead among Michigan women while the candidates are essentially even among men. McCain leads handily among regular church goers while Obama has the edge among those who rarely or never attend services. As for the running mates, 53 percent have a favorable opinion of Sarah Palin while 52 percent say the same about Joe Biden.

Michigan's working families are hurting: the August unemployment rate again led the nation at 8.9 percent. These people are crying for change. Which candidate is listening? It's important, because as Michigan turns - so goes the election.

***

Candidates Voting Record On Auto Industry-Related Issues:
Clean Energy Achievement Criteria (2007): McCain - no vote; Obama - Yes
Preventing Petroleum Export Organizations (NOPEC Act of 2007): McCain - no vote; Obama - Yes
Reduction in Dependence on Foreign Oil (2005): McCain - No, Obama - Yes
Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (No) Drilling Amendment (2005): McCain - Yes, Obama - Yes

This week OffTheBus is publishing a variety of stories that cover the policy differences between Senators John McCain and Barack Obama. If you have a policy expertise and would like to participate, please see Calling All Policy Gurus.

Comments

[Diane Tucker - Huffpost Blogger]

The last day to register new voters is Oct. 6. If you would like to help sign-up new Obama supporters in Michigan, click on this link for the MI/Obama office nearest you: http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/mioffices. Go get 'em!

[PT6]

Wouldn't it be nice to have a REBIRTH OF THE AUO INDUSTRY!

Stop sending Jobs Overseas and Build New Jobs Here!

Wouldn't be nice to be rid of the BIG OIL PROFITS!

We need what Obama Proposed:

From what we save on future fuel costs we could fund:

EVERY IDEA with quantify-able pay-backs.
Put tens of thousands of researchers to work.
Put millions of people to work in construction.
Put tens of millions to work in new corporations!

Lets Put Obama in Charge of AMERICAS ENERGY FUTURE!

[PT6]

This could help the AUTO INDUSTRY:

Wouldn't be nice to be rid of the BIG OIL PROFITS!

We need this!

WOW Palin is sooooo SMART! DRILL BABY DRILL!

BOONE WANTS TO SELL NAT GAS! The rest of his stuff is Bull!

We need what Obama Proposed:

From what we save on future fuel costs we could fund:

EVERY IDEA with quantify-able pay-backs.
Put tens of thousands of researchers to work.
Put millions of people to work in construction.
Put tens of millions to work in new corporations!

Lets Put Obama in Charge of AMERICAS ENERGY FUTURE!

[RingofTruth444]

To Jingles

You cannot possibly be serious with your remarks. If you cannot and will not see McCain's posturing for what it is, then you are bl**nd and dense. He opportunistically inserted himself into the bailout talks as a ploy to win over more support. Give me a break and get a clue. He is stalling the debate at a time when we need both candidates to communicate their policy stances clearly to the country. His presence forced Obama's hand.

However, if YOUR candidate has the country's interest at heart, REALLY at heart, maybe he can start by managing to multi-task as presidents are expected to do, meet his commitments, pick a prospective VP that knows what the heck she is talking about (her comments on RUSSIA, FORIEGN AFFAIRS, AND INABILITY TO CITE EXAMPLES TO SUPPORT HER RUNNING MATE WERE LAUGHABLE AT BEST EXCEPT THEY MORTIFIED ME AT THE SAME TIME, not trot her out for a dog and pony show, stop telling whoppers every chance he gets, own up to his history of DEREGULATION SUPPORT/STANCE, and have more accesibility and transparency with the media.

I live in MICHIGAN and can tell you the tide has effectively turned here towards Obama. We and the BIG 3 were shown NO SUPPORT by YOUR REPUBLICAN PRESIDENT BUSH and know that with John McCain in office, we have nothing coming from that retread either. If it's not about BIG OIL, DEFENSE CONTRACTS, OR BANKS the REPUBS don't care.

[lorla]

At the end of this bleeding of jobs in our country, the union workers will be the last ones standing. Everyone else will turn to the union workers for some help in fighting for jobs back, and for help in organizing.
The dot.com crowd sure wished they would have organized to save the jobs that were paying back huge student loans, when they started to leave for India.
The salary workers at GM, who worked beside hourly workers for 30 or more years just lost their health care benefits that were promised to them. The union has kept the hourly workers benefits, even though they have been forced to give up some coverage.
In this global economy, it is the US worker who has modeled what a fair day's work for a fair day's pay can do to improve quality of life. It is our responsibility to organize every sector of business and demand that there is an opportunity for EVERY worker to have the ability to afford basic needs and a few dollars more relax after that work is done.

[AynRand123]

The unions are one of the major problems impacting the auto industry, so to think that they'll be "standing" after all this shakes out is entirely naive. Overpaying undereducated employees to perform low skilled grunt work just doesn't make sense. I'm sure there are those who were concerned about jobs for producers of buggy whips and type writers, but guess what? We either embrace globalization and modern production technologies or we doom ourselves to be overrun by them. In any event, it's coming. Union folk can stomp their feet and wave placards until the cows come home -- it won't do any good. True economic forces march on. There's no stopping them -- they are linked too closely to the base elements of human nature.

[lorla]

This is an antiquated view of the union worker, and putting the blame on the union worker for the operating costs of manufacturing, is like blaming the teller's wages for the banking fallout.
Unionized manufacturing workers, under new 2 tier plans, make only $12.00 an hour to start, and top out at about 18.00. New flexible equipment requires more than just "low skill grunt work". Our workers were required to make multiple trips to Germany, to learn and teach about the equipment, and practices of our business.

What we do achieve is that our companies be held accountable for the waste they produce, thereby, helping to protect our environment.
I am a woman, and I get the same wage as my male co-workers, without having to fight for it.
I get a 40 hour work week, with overtime for anything I CHOOSE to accept.
I do not have to tolerate ANY form of harrassment, period.
I can get sick and have my illness covered and still keep my job.


Contrary to what you may believe, it is possible to embrace globalization, and still require that we are treated with dignity and respect.

[momof3inGA]

Funny how another headline on this page is "McCain's track record DISMAL when it comes to Worker's Rights". That's what the state of Michigan is all about -- the American worker.

I'm from Michigan, and it seems that you've got your facts wrong.

http://thepoliticalcarnival.blogspot.com/2008/09/obama-gas-detroit-station-swaps-signs.html

Also:

"Obama has 13 pt. Michigan Lead over McCain"

The Detroit Free Press/Local 4 Michigan Poll shows the Democratic senator from Illinois with a commanding lead of 13 points over Republican John McCain in the presidential race. Obama"s lead of 51% to 38% in the poll is nearly double the edge he had a month ago..."

The poll showed momentum swinging clearly to Obama in almost every demographic. Among women, his lead is now 54%-35% -- among independents, Obama enjoys a 14-point lead.

As for what"s driving it " it"s the economy.

Asked who is best able to fix the problems with the U.S. economy, Obama did even better than the head-to-head with McCain, 52% to 37% among the 602 likely voters polled from Monday to Wednesday of this week by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, Iowa. Asked which candidate was more likely to fight for the concerns most important to you and your family, 56% of respondents said Obama, compared to 36% for McCain...."

http://www.sefermpost.com/sefermpost/2008/09/barack-obama-ha.html

[jingles01]

Iff that it rue, I am so sorry for the citizens of Michigan.

You have a choice of two persons, one who was told by a Senator (Harry Reed) in Washington, DC that he was "not needed" to help resolve the biggest financial crises we have have since the Great Depression, and the other who said "I need to be there." If the so-called leader is not "needed" now, why is he needed at all? Is sort of makes you wonder.

This leader, who is not needed, wants to debate. The other wants to help resolve the problem and the heck with a debate. One places self first, the other places country first. Are you kidding me? Obama has shown himself for what he is, self-absorbed and the heck with the nation - "I just want to be elected" and to heck with the rest of you."

Then of course, we have this great VP pick (Biden) who says this is the greatest test since FDR went on television after Black Monday. Seems to me it was Harding and before TV.

[killa9500]

"People will buy cars that meet their needs for dependability and efficiency. But don't ever forget that people also want to drive cool, desirable cars -- and the presidential candidates are not qualified to figure out what that means."
Here's the problem, though - for the past 40 years, Detroit automakers have proven that THEY aren't qualified to figure out what that means. If they REALLY knew, then they wouldn't be in the predicament they're in now. Autoworkers, unfortunately, rely upon the wisdom of executives (or in this case, are doomed by the utter lack thereof) who have demonstrated zero foresight (they could have started developing fuel efficient cars back in the 80s, but instead focused on the loopholes of SUVs to qualify as "trucks" to give us Hummers), constantly resisted change as "restrictive" to their bottom line, and tried to cut costs by taking it out on assembly line workers instead of tightening belts in middle and upper management. This is NOT an overnight phenomenon - the death rattle has been going on for three DECADES! I've lived in Michigan. I've driven by the abandoned River Rouge plant and the empty corporate buildings. But I also have friends who have worked for Japanese automakers while they opened new plants in Kentucky (that's in the U.S. by the way, creating jobs for Americans). They have managed to f*** themselves royally, and totally hang their employees out to dry, but they never, in all these years, pointed the finger at themselves.

[Shozen]

I went with Toyota in 2001 because "The Big Three" felt it was below them to produce a low cost fuel efficient car. Time and time again Detroit has failed to anticipate the market. (Ironically they produce fuel efficient vehicles to sell overseas, where gas standards are higher.) I do feel for Detroit and Michigan. But they need to retool their management first then focus on the factories and labor.

[plooger]

This interview demonstrates what's at the core of Detroit's problems. This guy still wallows in the short-sighted, free market, anti-CAFE camp. Detroit, or at least GM, would be world eaters today if they hadn't fought so vigorously against California's zero-emissions initiative and they'd moved forward with the EV1... and subsequent vehicles.

The sales of the Toyota hybrid pretty much refutes de Lorenzo's moronic dismissal of hybrids, as well.

It really seems like our auto industry is doomed as long as the residual, usual suspects remain involved.

[icemilkcoffee]

Want to save jobs in Detroit? Nationalize the healthcare! Right now the healthcare costs, both for employees and for retirees, are cripling the Big 3. A nationalized healthcare wil go a long way in leveling the playing field.

[jingles01]

Nationalization worked so well in Canada and Great Britain, examples. You need to go to the doctor for the flu - no problem - just wait six months until there is an opening. You want to have your child cleared to play a school sport - no problem - just wait eight months until a doctor is available. You had a wreck and neeed an emergency doctor, you will probably find one.

But in England, France, (30 hours work week), Sweden, Norway, Finland, Germany, etc, there is no way you can get to see a doctor quickly unless it i is a a result of a trauma situation.

Frequently, Canada is held up as the "shining example" of the way things should be. It can take up to five or six months to see a doctor for anything beyond a common cold. This is what you want?

I know we can do better, and as a member of the "white trash" as defined by the CBC, we need to do better. But, I am afraid of nationlized medicine.

[winediva]

You're afraid of national health care? Are you going to refuse to take Medicare when you turn 65? I bet not.

Also, have you ever talked to anyone who lives in Canada or England? I have friends who live in both countries. And guess what? They love their national health care coverage. They think we're idiots in the U.S. for not having such coverage.

[ARKARK]

Jingles01
You seem extremely well traveled, with a propensity to get sick while traveling internationally. That must be the case, to know so much about the quality of other health care systems. Unless of course, you are parroting the sad old lines of the Repubs. Which is it?

[morbie5]

I'm from Michigan and I'm not going to excuse the extreme mismanagement of the big 3 or the stubbornness of the unions. However, "free trade" and unfair trade practices by the Japanese and Europeans have also contributed to the problem.

The downfall of Michigan is a forward indicator of what will happen with the rest of the country. We can't survive without a manufacturing base, we are becoming a hallowed out nation. We can't survive as a "service economy." Manufacturing made us this great nation and we need manufacturing to stay a great nation.

[Gary47]

It's great if Obama wins Michigan but not at the expense of supporting the auto industry, the biggest, most incredibly stagnant dinosaur in the country. Sorry Michigan, but it's way past time to broaden your economy and jump in to the 21st century. And no, if the auto industry folds it will not be the end of America, your whiny hype notwithstanding.

[Johnagain]

As the auto industry goes, so too will all other heavy industry in this country except weapons. Our prosperity was built on manufacturing. Not on designing websites, not on buying and selling each other houses, not on day trading or even on our bloated entertainment/sports sector. The term 'industrialized' is used to describe advanced countries for a reason. Countries that lack the capacity to make things constitute the third world. That is where the Republicans are taking us.

[Ourrias]

And Obama is ahead of McCain in every Michigan poll I've seen in the past week.

Does my heart good.

[sandrarita]

It's not only MIchigan. Every American that understands how serious this election is to their well being should vote for Obama. In my mind, there is no other choice.

[ccsky]

Sounds like positioning for a bailout. Jobs and homes have already been lost. So sorry Ford, GM and Chrysler, I'm all cried out. Big business fights tooth and nail against regulation, against consumer desires and then we're supposed to bail them out? Nope. When you were busy acquiring Hummer and building Excursions, giving minimal attention to greening and efficiency, you put the final nail in your own coffin. So good luck on turning it around, but not w/my tax dollars. Americans already have enough bad investments in our portfolio.

McCain is not going to win Michigan. The only reason it might be closer than normal for a Rep candidate is b/c we have an awful Dem. governor. The whole primary mess was just another example of her very poor leadership. Congressional Republican have turned a blind eye to the meltdown here for the last several years, so if it goes Blue it's b/c the KKK, KC and Michigan Militia types are burning crosses in front of polling places.

We're bleeding in Michigan, not just hurting, so that breeds optimism, despite what De Lorenzo thinks. Hope is all we have left. If McCain gets elected maybe he can send Pres. Palin, so she can teach us all how to kill deer. It's the only way we'll be able to feed our families.

[Oakland]

Hope and $3.00 will get you coffee at your new job at Starbucks. Congressional Republicans, Democrats and Bush have turned a blind eye to the meltdown in MI. We have been a donor state as far back as I can remember. Optimism? My foot. It was Bill Clinton that sold us down the river with NAFTA, and it was NAFTA that cost Hillary MI. People on the coast lost their houses? Too bad, move. People in the SW have no water? Too bad, move. I am one Michigander that believes in tit for tat, and I don't care wtf happens to anybody else after we got sold out and left for dead.

[wideout179]

NAFTA was, in my mind, a 'declaration of war' against the American manufacturing workers to improve corporate profits. Perhaps the single most devastating economic legislating passed in the last 50 years.