There is no easy way out of Afghanistan. The problem starts with India and Pakistan and ends only if peace can be found between them.
India and Pakistan have gone to war four times. In 1947, they fought a long and intense battle over Kashmir. In 1965, they fought another war over Kashmir. In 1971, they fought during the Pakistani civil war that resulted in the creation of Bangladesh. Finally, in 1999, they fought in the Siachen glacier region of Kashmir. Since then, they have successfully tested nuclear bombs and are presumably capable of launching nuclear-armed missiles at each other. Few other conflicts, with the possible exception of the Palestinian-Israeli dispute, have proved to be as intractable.
Over the years, Pakistani decision-makers have over-estimated the desire of Kashmir to be a part of Pakistan and have underestimated Indian military power and its likely responses to force. Throughout, Pakistan has held an immutable belief in its own cultural superiority to India. Now, Pakistan looks forward to the U.S. end game in Afghanistan.
In the Pakistani military's view, the international community will leave Afghanistan as President Obama has promised. When that happens, Pakistan feels that it must install a friendly regime in Kabul, one that will expel the pro-Karzai Indian advisors and provide a potentially friendly area to the rear of Pakistan in the event of another major war with India. This is the Pakistani idea of "strategic depth." The most likely candidate for a friendly government is the Pashtun-dominated Afghan Taliban. However, Pakistan is also battling a civil war with the Pakistani Taliban, also composed of Pashtuns. In Pakistan's eyes, the Pakistani Taliban is a dangerous rebel, while the Afghan Taliban is the next government of Afghanistan.
When the U.S. leaves, Karzai's government will face enormous pressure from the Afghan Taliban, supported by the Pakistani intelligence service. India will do what it can to support Karzai. If Karzai's government falls, Afghanistan returns to where it was in 1996 when the Taliban took control of the country. If Karzai remains in power, his government will probably not control Pashtunistan, the swath of land in Afghanistan and Pakistan inhabited by the Pashtuns, and likely will not control much of the Tajik-controlled north. In either case, civil war looms if the ancient hatred between the Tajiks, the Hazzari, and the Pashtun escalates into widespread violence.
Add to this inflammatory mix the potential mineral wealth recently discovered in Afghanistan. The Chinese are probably the only ones willing to take a risk in Afghanistan to get at the resources. When it comes to corruption, Chinese firms have not been troubled by partnerships with regimes that engage in human rights abuses. Thus, as long as it gets the minerals and is not troubled by extremists in its own Islamic regions, China will probably tolerate any regime. Apparently, India and China have had some talks about joint ventures about mining in Afghanistan, but the relationship between China and Pakistan has been close as well. China could also play India against Pakistan for its own economic and strategic advantage.
The upshot for the U.S. and its allies is this: Settle the Pakistan-India conflict. Until the two countries can live in reasonable security and peace with each other, their competition for power and influence will perpetuate the chaos in Afghanistan. That peacemaking assignment will be long and challenging. If the India-Pakistan relations are normalized, however, Afghanistan might peacefully evolve to a loose federation guaranteeing significant regional autonomy to the Pashtuns, Tajiks, and Hazzaris in exchange for agreements not to support terrorists or opium production. In the absence of peace between India and Pakistan, chaos will reign in the region.
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There is an easy way out. We leave. Just like that. I don't care if we declare victory and leave, or declare the war unwinnable and leave, or say nothing at all and leave. But leave we should, and must.
India and Pakistan are a serious problem... for India and Pakistan. That they could, theoretically, descend into total war and exchange nukes is a nightmare scenario, but one that is in absolutely no way effected by our continued fighting of the taliban in A-stan. Contiue trying everything diplomatically to keep both sides at the peace table, but accept that at the end of the day there's only so much we can do to stop enemies from wanting to pound the dog snot out of each other... and while I know it sounds heartless, we need to accept that even the nightmare scenario of a nuclear exchange between I&P would be a tragedy for citizens of I and P. Not the U.S. This is not an existential threat to the U.S. or our way of life, and as such the continued sacrifice of US troops should not be part what we're willing to give.
Time to pull up stumps in A-stan and bring everybody home. NOW.
However there is tremendous irony in the Pak-India problem when compared to the Israel-Palestianian one; on the one hand, at this point in time, there is no doubt that the India-Pak problem is the most dangerous and south asia the most volatile unstable place on earth yet on the other hand the India-Pak problem is not as intractable as the Israel-Pal problem which has an incredible level of complexity.This is the great irony...
Kashmir for instance can bring India and Pak closer together
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If for instance the idea of a somewhat porous border on the Line of Control is implemented with respective militarizations on both sides on the Loc intact, then in the long run such a proposal could bring the countries together.
However as the larger country, India must have the courage to be generous and look towards the very long run (200 years maybe, when even one might be able to think of some sort of economic union or more); there will be negative events no doubts in the future from those who dont want peace in South Asia. However India must have the courage to be generous and look towards the very long run to a time when things might look very different than they today.
Needless to say if the India-Pak problem is resolved, the Isra-Pal will have greater probablity of success.
Pakistan knows that America doesn't have the staying power and so they are back to supporting their proxies in Afghanistan, whom they have never really abandoned. Pakistan and India ought to be adult enough to talk to each other and make peace. No amount of American meddling will ever achieve anything.
We must concentrate on saving our own democracy. In order to succeed we must kill the Empire. We cannot remain a democracy at home and empire abroad.
I have serious doubts about India or Pakistan being adult enough to actually talk to each other...but they may listen to someone they both trust. That would be where China could conceivably step in as peacemaker. For all the anti-Chinese rhetoric I've heard ginned up of late, it is worth remembering that this is a nation who knows how to play the subtle game better than just about any other international player on the board. Having two mutually antagonistic nations in China's debt would be a PR coup.
Whatever India and Pakistan decide it is primarily their business. Pakistan is basically a failed state. If it did not have billions given to them they would have to grow up just like we Americans need to grow up and face the true facts around us.
I would rewrite that as Pakistan has attacked India four times. And India has successfully repelled them.
Obviously the author has real understanding of the way things work in Pakistan. Even after the recent wikileaks revelation of Pakistani duplicity, you still want India and Pakistan to "Just get along".
There is not going to be peace between India and Pakistan because it is in the interest of the Pakistani army to maintain a state of cold war. They cannot justify the size of their army and their cushy salaries and perks without big bad India. What is the point in peace talks if one side has no interest in it?
India may have an eye on Afghanistan but there is very little chance there will be a war with Pakistan over it. Nor will it go out of their way to have a proxy war there. Its just not worth it.
That is not being neutral. That is being disingenuous because it suits your narrative. The underlying assumption here is that India and Pakistan are equal and equally at fault. India is a huge peace loving country with a thriving democracy while Pakistan is about 1/5th the size and a pretend democracy. India has not attacked another country. The same cannot be said about Pakistan. You will note that other smaller surrounding countries do not fear an attack from India the way Pakistan does.
India and Pakistan have been having peace talks for decades to no avail. The lack of peace is a symptom of the problem. The root cause of the problem is that the military runs Pakistan. As soon as that is fixed, all these problems like the Kashmir problem will vanish like water in the desert sand. Peace talks will do nothing.