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Guy Ziv

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The Jordanian Peace Initiative: A Case of Déjà Vu?

Posted: 04/11/2012 4:30 pm

Twenty-five years ago today, Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres and Jordan's King Hussein concluded a series of secret meetings in London by drafting a document aimed at jumpstarting the moribund Arab-Israeli peace process. The London Agreement called for the convening of an international peace conference that would be followed by bilateral negotiations. We will never know if these negotiations would have led to a peace settlement because the agreement reached by the two veteran statesmen was ultimately scrapped by Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir. What we do know is that Israel paid dearly for Shamir's obstinacy. The lessons from this debacle are relevant today as the Jordanians have taken the initiative, once again, in reviving the peace process.

The London Agreement would have served the interests of Israel, Jordan, and the Palestinians. Israel would have negotiated a peace deal with a joint Jordanian-Palestinian delegation, rather than with the more militant PLO. The Jordanians would have won back territories they lost to Israel in the 1967 war. And the Palestinians could have rid themselves of the burdens associated with Israel's occupation of the West Bank and Gaza. The document's basic principles -- that all parties must accept UN Resolutions 242 and 338, and renounce violence and terrorism -- are today widely accepted as the basis for any peace agreement.

Fearing that an international conference would push Israel into a corner, however, Shamir torpedoed the Peres-Hussein agreement. Shamir's decision turned out to be short-sighted. That December, the first Intifada erupted in the occupied territories, leading to widespread violence in the West Bank, Gaza, and Jerusalem. Seven months later, on July 31, 1988, King Hussein announced that he was severing all administrative and legal ties to the West Bank, signaling an end to Jordan's formal role in Israeli-Palestinian talks. Within four years, Shamir found himself at the very international conference he had feared, but under terms less favorable for Israel. Shamir's successor, Yitzhak Rabin, was left to conduct negotiations with the mercurial PLO leader, Yasser Arafat, in place of King Hussein.

Although Israel today enjoys peace with Jordan, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues to fester and, once again, Jordan is attempting to breathe life into the peace process. In January, the Jordanians hosted preliminary talks in Amman and have since been trying to get the Israelis and Palestinians back to the negotiating table. Yet, just as his father's efforts were rejected by Shamir a generation ago, King Abdullah's initiative has thus far received a tepid response -- this time, by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his counterpart, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.

Five rounds of exploratory talks have produced little progress. The Palestinians are refusing to return to the talks until Israel freezes settlement activity, releases Fatah-affiliated prisoners, and agrees to a return to the pre-1967 lines as the basis for negotiations. Beyond rejecting these pre-conditions, the Netanyahu government is threatening to exit negotiations entirely if Abbas' Fatah party and his rival Hamas resume their reconciliation talks. Meanwhile, Israel's focus on Iran has effectively relegated peacemaking to the backburner.

The Jordanians have been promoting these talks for good reason. With a sizable Palestinian population, King Abdullah is concerned about Jordan's stability given the revolutions sweeping the region. Renewed violence in the West Bank in the form of a third Intifada could easily spill over the Jordan River and create existential problems for Amman. A new Intifada would also be disastrous for Israelis and Palestinians, fewer and fewer of whom believe that a two-state solution is viable.

The Israelis and Palestinians are squandering yet another opportunity in spite of favorable conditions. Netanyahu currently faces the most moderate and pragmatic Palestinian leadership in history, one that is committed to a path of nonviolence and to a two-state solution. For his part, Abbas faces an Israeli interlocutor who heads the most stable Israeli government in decades, one which would likely be able to sell a deal to the Israeli public if a deal can be reached.

As decades of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations have shown, talks are no guarantee for success. The absence of talks, however, is likely to prove worse. Just as the collapse of the London Agreement resulted in the first Intifada and the removal of Jordan's moderate King Hussein from the Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations, the failure of Jordan's current initiative may give way to renewed bloodshed and the replacement of Israel's moderate Palestinian peace partner with a more extremist leadership dominated by Hamas. With both sides growing more skeptical by the day about whether a two-state solution is possible, a third Intifada may be only the harbinger for what could yet come to pass.

This article was originally published in the Hebrew version of Haaretz.

 
 
 
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Twenty-five years ago today, Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres and Jordan's King Hussein concluded a series of secret meetings in London by drafting a document aimed at jumpstarting the moribund A...
Twenty-five years ago today, Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres and Jordan's King Hussein concluded a series of secret meetings in London by drafting a document aimed at jumpstarting the moribund A...
 
 
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Trollstein
Once you go Schwartz, you never go back baby
01:28 PM on 04/12/2012
I don't know what is to be accomplished by negotiations at this point. The primary disagreement relates to the status of the offspring of Arabs displaced in 1947/48. There are more then 5-million of these people and Israel is refusing to allow them to migrate to Israel. I happen to agree with that decision. But even if I did not agree, it would still be impossible without a segmented surrender by Israel, which would become another Arab/Muslim nation--soon thereafter. Until this issue is settled, which really means the "Host" nations accepting (what is now the third/fourth generations), the world best get used to no agreement.
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12:18 PM on 04/12/2012
I would propose a measure unprecedented in annals of Arabo-Islamic.history.
But one that has a real chance of injecting life into the peace negotiations And make Jordan a an international leader.
Here it is:
When Israelis and Palestinians reach an agreement, Jordan will contribute 1,000 square kilometers of border land to the future Palestinian state.
To help their brothers in Islam and to atone for 2 decades of annexation and occupation of Palestine 1948-1967).
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roch1234caputo
03:06 PM on 04/12/2012
They is no need for Jordon to contrebute anything, Israel simple should return the occupied Lands. This woun't happen since Israel can't get enought of what isn't theirs, oh yea, WAR SPOILES. So things will stay the same, Israel is now to powerful to think of listening to anyone else Anyone want to waste they time, this is a good place to do it in..
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03:55 PM on 04/12/2012
It is unfortunate that your hatred of Israelis overwhelms your desire to help Palestinians.
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04:58 PM on 04/12/2012
"They is no need for Jordon to contrebute anything, Israel simple should return the occupied Lands. "

Occupied from whom?!

Before Israel, West Bank belonged to Jordan before that to British and Ottoman Turks.

Which previous owner do you prefer?
10:53 AM on 04/12/2012
Israel will never make peace with the pals unless there is pressure from the UN. And they know they have US's veto in their back pocket so the UN will never pressure them. Its a state with "apar theid" license.
Rosin the Bow
Palestine doesn't want peace. Meshaal said so
01:19 PM on 04/12/2012
The Pals will never make peace with Israel, period.
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stockton jeff
07:08 PM on 04/12/2012
No the texter is right, Israel wants to take the land and make no peace.
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roch1234caputo
03:08 PM on 04/12/2012
The U.S. will veto anything that envoles Isreal. just like Russia and China will veto anything that hurts their clint States.. What goes around comes around.
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notmisaacm
That which is attributed to malice is often explai
10:52 AM on 04/12/2012
It is interesting that all of the parties in the middle east agree that only Israel and to a lesser extent, the Palestinians, should be forced to make compromises. Egypt is never asked to open up the Sinai to settlement of Gaza refugees, who are the descendants of people who fled the 1948 Egyptian attack on Israel. Syria and Lebanon are never asked to give citizenship to the descendants of the people who fled their 1948 and 1967 attacks on Israel. Jordan, which was given to the Hashemites as a consolation prize after the British evicted them from Mecca in favor of the House of Saud, is never mentioned for what it is; the real Palestine. Only Israel, and to a lesser extent the residents of the west bank, are asked to make sacrifices.

The King of Jordan is following this same path. He is trying to keep his little kingdom, and avoid his responsibility for the residents of the west bank, which were once ruled by Jordan. It's time to incentivize Jordan to reattach the West Bank. Then the Palestinians/Jordanians can have their state and everyone can move on.
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stockton jeff
07:12 PM on 04/12/2012
Why should Egypt give up any land at all?? It was these European Zionist that came in and displaced the indigeous population and you want to punish Egypt for that. Strange logic. Your solution just rewards Israel for its theft of the land. Remember Israel is basically a colonial enterprise by Europeans.
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notmisaacm
That which is attributed to malice is often explai
09:35 AM on 04/13/2012
Egypt should resettle Gaza refugees, caused by Egypt's failed wars of 1948-67, and offer them citizenship much as the US did after we lost our war in Indochina. After we lost our Indochina wars, hundreds of thousands of refugees came to the US, we have a name for them; US citizens. It was our responsibility, just as Gaza is Egypt's.

As for the population of Israel, the majority are descendants of people who fled Arab dictatorships, not Europe. Unlike the Arabs, however, Israel resettles people fleeing war, it doesn't lock them up for decades to be used as pawns. Something you and your Arab friends appear to support.
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MarcEdward
likes all cats more than most people
09:38 AM on 04/12/2012
The 1967 borders (why aren't they called the 1948 borders?) are the basis for negotiation and peace.
Until Israel agrees, there is no point in starting negotiations.
How can one recognize Israel's "right to exist within her own borders" when nobody knows what those borders are?
09:37 AM on 04/12/2012
"the Arab revolutions have changed a fundamental fact for the first time since the 1970s, the geopolitics of the region cannot be analyzed without taking into account, the aspirations of peoples and countries that have become masters of their own destiny again. For decades, the United States was able to support Israel unconditionally without having to pay the price - except that of their unpopularity in the Arab streets, which they didn't care about - since the Arab leaders remained faithful allies. This period is coming to an end. In March 2010, General David Petraeus, then head of the US military's Central Command (CENTCOM), was heard saying, "Arab anger over the Palestinian question limits the strength and depth of US partnerships with governments and peoples in this region and weakens the legitimacy of moderate regimes in the Arab world." This can also be seen in the Egyptian debate around the Camp David accords and the question of Israeli-Palestinian peace. As Steven A. Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations (New York) wrote, "From the perspective of many Egyptians, this arrangement hopelessly constrained Cairo's power while freeing Israel and the United States to pursue their regional interests unencumbered. Without the threat of war with Egypt, Israel poured hundreds of thousands of Israelis into settlements in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, invaded Lebanon (twice), declared Jerusalem its capital, and bombed Iraq and Syria."
http://english.dohainstitute.org/Home/Details?entityID=5ea4b31b-155d-4a9f-8f4d-a5b428135cd5&resourceId=505e1e35-107a-4022-9c65-fd5c5786f174#4
12:00 PM on 04/12/2012
Well said!
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NTT
Fighting rants with facts
09:08 AM on 04/12/2012
>>>"King Abdullah's initiative has thus far received a tepid response [...]"

There is a very good reason why neither Israelis nor Palestinian Arabs trust the Hashemite monarch: this Saudi dynasty is not part of the solution -- it's part of the problem. The Hashemite rulers are the reason why "Jordan" (plus the predominantly Arab areas of West Bank, plus Gaza) is not "Palestine".

After all, it is undeniable that:
- Palestinian Arabs constitute by far the major ethnic component of Jordan's population;
- There's absolutely no ethnic, linguistic or cultural difference between Palestinian Arabs inhabiting either bank of the Jordan River;
- Historically, there's never been a "Jordanian nation" (nor a "Palestinian Arab nation"). The Kingdom of Jordan is a contraption manufactured by British colonial interests in 1922, with the only purpose of establishing a British-friendly entity & finding a throne for the Hashemites -- a pro-British Saudi family.
- The West Bank was part of Jordan between 1949 & 1967; the vast majority of population accepted that union. West Bank Arabs were granted Jordanian citizenship & happily applied for Jordanian passports.

To those interested in a solution, there's a clear & feasible one: territorial compromise allowing full political rights for Palestinian Arabs in their own united country (whether they wish to call it "Jordan" or "Palestine" is their decision). Palestinian Arabs whose place of residence will place them within the Jewish state should have the option of choosing Palestinian/Jordanian citizenship while retaining rights of residence in Israel.
09:38 AM on 04/12/2012
Im no fan of the $@ud royal dynasty, but to say they are an impediment to |$rae|'s goals is stretching it a bit.

"The Kingdom of Jordan is a contraption manufactured by British colonial interests in 1922,"

Guess what.... So was |$rae|, not so long ago....
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NTT
Fighting rants with facts
08:02 AM on 04/13/2012
I don't know why you insist on not writing normal words. It's annoying. If you think it makes you look interesting, I think you're wrong.

I did not say that "the $@ud royal dynasty, but to say they are an impediment to |$rae|'s goals". I said that the Hashemite dynasty (which originates from Hijaz, today's Saudi Arabia) is an impediment to a united Palestinian Arab state. I'm not at all sure such a state would be in Israel's best interest. Given the amount of anti-Israel hostility in the Arab world (the result of decades of brainwashing) Israel would probably prefer a weaker neighbor. A small & demilitarized Palestinian Arab state in between Jordan and Israel would be the best situation from Israel's point of view.

Israel was not manufactured by the Brits. The Jewish people populated that state 2000 years ago. They never ceased longing for it. The mass return to it started in the 19th century, when the place was still ruled by the Ottomans. And Israel ultimately got its independence AGAINST British wishes.
12:05 PM on 04/12/2012
The control of the West Bank between 48 and 67 was negotiated by Abdullah for the benefit of his kingdom. He later paid the price for his mistake. There is no Palestinian that accepted this arrangement and never will.
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NTT
Fighting rants with facts
06:47 PM on 04/12/2012
>>>"There is no Palestinian that accepted this arrangement and never will."

Actually, there were some 1.5 million Palestinians who accepted it -- 1 on the East Bank and 500,000 in the West Bank. All of whom gladly accepted "Jordanian" citizenship and applied for Jordanian passports.
05:52 AM on 04/12/2012
Or, the US and Israel could take seriously the Arab Peace Initiative of 2002, which not only complies with international law but is morally the only offer available on the table that will work in the long-run. Moreover, it provides Israel with the only true security around and that is a Pan-Arab peace. Of course, Israel doesn't want to remove its colonial structures on the land it has occupied since the June 1967 War. That is the real problem. Below is a link to the text of the offer.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/1844214.stm
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06:52 AM on 04/12/2012
The so-called Arab peace initiative is an attempt to circumvent international law and bilateral agreements that are already in place. In addition, this proposal still refuse to accept Israel's RIGHT to be, to exist as the independent NATION-STATE OF THE JEWISH PEOPLE on any parcel of land between the Jordan River and the Med. Sea. At the most, the proposal suggest that Arab states will accept Israel's FACT of existence but not its RIGHT to do so, and this only after Israel complied with every single demand of the proposal. No wonder, serious people never took this proposal seriously, and rightly so.
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MarcEdward
likes all cats more than most people
09:39 AM on 04/12/2012
The Arab initiative does give Israel full recognition.
Your post contains a lie.
12:06 PM on 04/12/2012
Thank you for your comment.
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04:06 AM on 04/12/2012
This, as so many approaches to "peace" don't take two fundamental elements into consideration:

1) The essence of the Arab Israeli conflict is NOT land but rather the very fact that Israel, the independent nation-state of the Jewish people, by RIGHT is, exists on ANY parcel of land between the Jordan River and the Med. Sea, contrary to Islamic - not Christian or Druze religions, mind you!!

2) By law, international law, after the legal 1921/22 partition of "Palestine" - a territory, never a nationality or a state, mind you!! - between Arabs and Jews, 77% of the territory, located east of the Jordan River was handed over to the Arabs while only 23% of it, located between the Jordan River to the Med. Sea, was assigned to the Jews.
http://www.mythsandfacts.org/conflict/mandate_for_palestine/mandate_for_palestine.pdf

The only legal basis for reconciliation between Arab and Jew, between the Muslim-Arab world, local and regional, and the independent nation-state of the Jewish people, Israel, is through this wonderful tool: UN Security Council Resolution, 242, of Nov. 1967. 242 was designed for this purpose by diplomats, historians and jurists, passed unanimously through the Security Council and subsequently accepted by all parties to the conflict. Furthermore, it served successfully in reaching an accommodation of peaceful coexistence between Egypt and Israel and between Jordan and Israel, and has been the solid basis for all other peace talks.
http://www.mythsandfacts.org/Conflict/10/resolution_242.htm
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04:49 AM on 04/12/2012
P.S. A more meaningful discussion about 242 may be found here:
http://www.mythsandfacts.org/Conflict/10/Resolution-242.pdf

It is important to highlight the fact that 242, while calling upon the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to retreat from "territories" captured during the defensive Six Day War of 1967, doesn't expect Israel to do so from "all" or "the" territories. Israel, of course, has accomplished this demand by 242 several decades ago. Also, the IDF is not to retreat to any particular lines but rather to "secure and recognized boundaries", to be decided by the warring parties.

Furthermore, 242 true to international law, doesn't call for the setting up of an additional state between the Jordan River and the Med. Sea, nor does 242 even make use of concepts such as "Palestinians" or "Palestine".
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09:57 AM on 04/12/2012
You forgot to keep the Sebba farms and the Golan heights.
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stockton jeff
07:23 PM on 04/12/2012
There you go again. Again Jordan was created for the Hashemite tribe. Not for the Palestinains. It would be like Mexicans and people from Guatemala. Their racial background is the same and they speak the same language but their cultures are different. You have a nasty habit of conflating all Arabs together when they all have different cultures even if they speak the same language. That my Zionist friend borders on racism.
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01:30 AM on 04/13/2012
Jordan consists of 77% of "Palestine". Who among the Arabs took control of it; this clan or another, this political party or the next is totally irrelevant. It was a partition between Arabs and Jews. And now, in addition to the fact that the Arabs received 77% of the territory, they attempt to drive the Jews even from the little left in their possession, the remaining 23%. This is the face of Arab nationalism and Islamism.
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Vlady
Better Late
03:10 AM on 04/12/2012
Watching Syria's unrest makes the Jordan feel uneasy as it has similar proportion between a ruling class minority and an oppressed majority. One of the outcome of the looming unrest in Jordan could be creation of the first Palestinian state.
09:41 AM on 04/12/2012
Perhaps... once the Jordan|an regime forever in the service of |$rae|, (for the sake of it's own relevance), falls, perhaps J0rd@n can truly embrace the P@|3stinian cause....
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Marcus047
given up on HP
10:00 AM on 04/12/2012
and unlike syria's leadership, which is at least syrian, the leadership of jordan does not even share a common ethnic background with the people they govern. The jordanian monarchy are literally elite foreign rulers with no connections to the people they govern.
fullofmitt
Willard was a rat in a movie!
12:59 AM on 04/12/2012
As the article says..Jordan is seeking any way it can to stabilize its majority Palestinian population! Stabilize??
01:08 PM on 04/12/2012
Yes, I think that would be correct. Stabilize before it erupts into another quagmire as we coninue to see in Arab states. Some are striving for it. Al_qassam responded to one of my posts. Unfortunately, it has not yet been published here. It gives an excellent example of why Jordan would want to stabilize its situation, and why Israel should NOT be one state with Palestinians. Stabilization, because a coup against the Hashemite Kingdon and its government already has taken place in the past, and continues to simmer. Most of the Refugees, or at last many of them, I have no numbers, are fugitives from JORDAN after that coup. The fact that the King of Jordan does not have links to the population (now he does, his wife Rania is Palestinian), is a moot point. Foreign nationals often have become royals in other countries. Examples of that are to be found in Europe's histories.
fullofmitt
Willard was a rat in a movie!
05:35 PM on 04/12/2012
...BUT THEY ARE N-O-T FOUND IN MIDDLE EAST HISTORIES!! Apples and oranges!
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Marcus047
given up on HP
10:08 PM on 04/11/2012
The best peace initiative jordan could offer would be to admit that with their 80% + population of self-identified palestinians, that jordan is indeed the palestinian nation state. So what if their king and royal family are natives of saudi arabia, the people are palestinian, thus, so is the state.
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stockton jeff
07:26 PM on 04/12/2012
The reason Jordan has a Palestinian majority is because of Israel. Your seem to reward Israel for its action of ethnically cleansing the Palestinains into Jordan.
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Geo80
Truth. Reality. Smart, sane people agree with me
06:14 PM on 04/11/2012
Hamas want to wipe Israel out.
The Palestinian Authority want millions of Palestinians to flood into Israel so Jews are a minority and Israel is no longer Israel and can be turned into Palestine.

Until these things change, Israel can't make peace with them. And some Jews building some apartment buildings on some empty hilltop somewhere is not a factor.
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Vlady
Better Late
02:54 AM on 04/12/2012
Good point
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roch1234caputo
03:29 PM on 04/12/2012
So you say, but it does seem to come up every day as a sticking point for peace. The Settlements must all go, of course things will most liklyly stay the same. No peace any time soon. It's a great place for a holiday or buying cheap settlement housing, take your pick. Think of it as a good place to invest your money. There isn't a settlement bubble yet.
05:20 PM on 04/11/2012
It says Israel suffered from not having the conference, but I think the Palestinians have suffered much worse.
fullofmitt
Willard was a rat in a movie!
01:02 AM on 04/12/2012
Of course they did! This is just another anti-Israel blog! Get it!
04:55 PM on 04/11/2012
There is no place for King Abdullah in the peace process. It is for Palestine only. Third party interests are a thing of the past.
11:51 PM on 04/11/2012
Well, dare I disagree with you, Al-Qassam? Approximately 80% of the Jordan population is Palestinian. Then there are Palestinian refugees who left Jordan after an attempted coup on the regime. There are large internment camps of Palestinians in Syria and Lebanon, next door. Iran might like a free path through Jordan to get closer to the Arab Peninsula, and Hezbullah and Hamas both, are Iranian proxies. That puts Jordan and its king straight in the middle of dangerous tensions, which could erupt at any time. If he can help settle the Palestinian issue, he would be (slightly) better of. The best thing for King Abdullah would be to include the disputed areas in his considerations and to work together with Israel, and with Lebanon and Syria as well. If he can achieve that the Palestinian refugees are assimilated where they now reside, can apply for citizenship, and get some compensation, that would open options for Palestinian refugees which are now not achieveable. Jordan was also part of the Palestine mandate (geographical area), in fact the largest part of it. So, King Hussein is by no means a third party. Such propositions are already on the table, if ONLY the Palestinians would come to that table.
fullofmitt
Willard was a rat in a movie!
01:04 AM on 04/12/2012
There IS no Palestine. Now what?
11:07 AM on 04/12/2012
God gives us the mind to be truthful or to deceive. I choose only to speak the truth. You can never hide behind the truth or from it.
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stockton jeff
07:30 PM on 04/12/2012
There was no United States of America before 1776 or Israel before 1948.....Why do you zionist continue with the silly talking points, they are easily shot down.