Why Now Is the Time To Trust the Polls Mr. Trump

Why Now Is the Time To Trust the Polls Mr. Trump
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Yesterday at a campaign rally in Colorado Springs, Colorado Donald Trump declared ""Even though we're doing pretty good in the polls, I don't believe the polls anymore." Ironically, there are several reasons why now is the time we should objectively trust the polls the most.

First, Election Day is only three weeks away. As we get closer to Election Day, there are fewer undecided voters and less likelihood that voters will change their minds. Historically polls do a better job of predicting voting outcomes the closer we are to Election Day. This isn't only true for polling--but most predictions--for example, weather forecasters can do a much better job of predicting tomorrow's weather than they can weather one week out.

Second, the polls have been remarkably consistent over time. Hillary Clinton has been ahead of Donald Trump in the majority of national polls for several months. If you look at the base support for Donald Trump, he has consistently maxed out in the low 40's. With the plethora of numbers so focused on the magnitude of the lead, you have to look very hard across various polls to find ones that show Trump ahead of Clinton. (Of course, I'm not including the non-scientific online "polls" that are popular after each debate, as these polls are not an accurate reflection of the actual voting population.)

Third, the trend lines are also tilting towards Hillary Clinton. Amongst several core demographics--women, millennials, and African-Americans, Hillary Clinton has continued to show gains. And, many of the battleground state polls are showing movement towards Hillary Clinton.

Since Sunday, Real Clear Politics has reported results from two dozen polls on the various states of the race. It would be hard to be hiding the polls that showed different results--in fact, outlier polls tend to get the most attention.

Could the polls be systematically wrong? Anything is theoretically possible. But, overall, the closer we get to the race, the more consistent the results appear, and the more the trends move in the same direction, the more likely we should believe the polls.

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