Today was supposed to be the start of the much-anticipated ceasefire in the Syrian civil war, declared by the former UN Secretary General, Kofi Anan. Ceasefire in Syria? An oxymoron, and a very tragic one. Yesterday, as was announced by the most reliable Syrian opposition group, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, 155 people were killed. They were killed in Aleppo, the suburbs of Damascus, Hammah, Idlib, Deir-a-Zor and Dar'a. All are Sunni areas, and all were supposed to be pacified already, if we are to believe official Syrian announcements.
Well, the civil war is far from over, the rebellion continues, and in the early hours of today more casualties are registered due to the relentless attacks of tanks, which are not supposed to be in the towns, according to the Anan plan. So, this plan was stillborn, and no surprise at all about that.
Anan's initiative was, to start with, a typical UN plan, using the widely-used and completely meaningless mantra about "political solution being the only possible solution," a nice but totally unrealistic slogan. On this occasion, when the plan is already collapsing, it is important to remind us all of the true nature of the struggle in Syria, what really is happening there, and why the standard UN "political solution" is just a euphemism to empty words. In Syria there is a struggle of life or death between a minoritarian regime and a majority of the population who fight over complete control of the country. The Alawites in control of Syria know very well that after four decades of systematic oppression of the Sunni majority, their downfall may be the prelude to a long night of sectarian bloodshed aimed at them.
For the vast majority of the Alawite community, the question is no more the fate of one particular Alawite clan, that of the Assads. Much more is at stake -- their very existence -- and they are signaling to us all that they are ready to do whatever it takes to remain in power. "Whatever it takes" means exactly that, and we haven't witnessed the worst yet, nor are we even close to that point. The regime knows that "real" pacification of the rebel areas, basically the vast majority of Syria's territory, requires much more than what has already transpired. As predicted in this blog before, violence in Syria will dwarf anything that we have witnessed until now either there, or in any other Middle Eastern country.
The regime is sophisticated enough to try and be seen as if being ready to take part in international initiatives to solve the crisis, such as the Anan plan. They want and need to gain time. Time is of the essence in pursuing the survival strategy of the Alawite community. So, every opportunity that the regime has to gain some of it will be fully exploited by them. Ceasefire, in itself an admission by the regime that it is engaged in a major struggle, is a very flexible notion in the annals of the Middle East. In neighboring Lebanon, during the civil war of 1975-6, there were tens of ceasefires. So, we should not be surprised if the Assad regime will play this kind of game also in dealing with its own civil war.
That means that Kofi Annan will find himself more times in the guest room of Bashar Assad's presidential palace, and why not? The regime will bestow on him all the pleasantries which they can master, and in the meantime, the killing machines of Division 4 and other special units will continue to work, and everybody should know by now what that means.
I, for one, suspect that Kofi Annan himself knows that a real political solution In Syria, based on compromise and power-sharing, is out of the question; and I also believe that he is experienced enough to know that a Noble Peace Prize is not awaiting him, not this time, and not so far as Syria is concerned.
Judging by the reactions of other key players -- Turkey, the US and Arab countries -- it is clear that they too do not believe that something good can and will emerge out of the Annan plan, so why wait? The carnage is just going to intensify, and the Syrian people deserve more -- much more -- than the futile attempts to persuade Bashar Assad to do what he cannot and does not want to do, which is to relinquish his power peacefully. Even if he thinks about that, his community and the remaining Ba'ath cronies will stop him.
It is time to change the discussion about Syria. Blood is thicker than water, as they say in the Middle East, and too much has already been spilled. It should stop and quickly, but that will not happen through the Annan plan.
The Saudi's have openly called for arming and helping the Sunnis who oppose Assad. They have also put up over $100 million to pay for revolutionaries/soldiers (mercenaries) while the US has committed to providing night goggles, intelligence and other technical "humanitarian" aid. Now they have attracted every malcontent Sunni extremist from across Africa and only adding to the conflict.
Assad agreed to the cease-fire and the opposition rejected it?
Maliki and the Iraqis see what the plan is and know exactly what is going to happen.
Without significant outside assistance, the opposition cannot defeat Assad with military means, it will never happen. Allowing external players such as the house of Saud those paragons of democracy to arm and pay the opposition is reckless in the extreme.
I agree that Annan's plan is doomed for the bone yard, however, the blood that will be spilled should not be completely laid at the feet of Assad, other all too familiar players are up to their necks in the mess as well.
However, Bible prophecy does give us insight into the future for at least 3 of these Arab nations: Syria, Egypt, and Libya. The ancient Jewish prophet Daniel wrote many years ago that these 3 nations would be the first 3 to make a move to destroy the Jewish state of Israel (Daniel 11:40-43). The king of the north and the king of the south in verse 40 are identified as Syria and Egypt early on in chapter 11 (Daniel 11:5-20). Libya is mentioned in Daniel 11:43.
The results of the Arab Spring in Syria, Egypt, and Libya are indeed setting the stage for Bible prophecy to be fulfilled.
You sound like need a good smite of two.
The first thing would be to put an arms blockade to prevent Russia from resupplying tanks, guns, and other weapons.
Second thing is to establish a humanitarian corridor to allow peaceful evacuation of innocent civilians.
Next, a no-fly-zone should be implemented to allow for air strikes on hostile military targets who are targeting civilians.
I think we can all agree that military intervention, although costly, is much more preferrable than allowing genocide.
This is not a US national security matter, and we have no business injecting ourselves into that fight.
Russia and while you are it why not China, what the heck let us usher in the new era
with a nuclear conflict and let us go with the fireworks. good luck with freedom fighting
and see you " not " in Syria, put your money where your mouth is and head tomorrow
to Syria. I am sure that the allawis will be more than happy to get some american
fresh meat if you know what I mean.
Syria just attacked Turkey, a NATO nation. That is an attack on all NATO members, including the US.
The s has just hit the fan. Syria will be attacked, their military likely destroyed within a month.
This is a complicated global issue: Russia, Iran, Turkey, and the US have to agree on what military munition should be banned from the Assad regime. They should agree on a long-term plan for Syria that includes autonomy for Kurds in the North-West and Alawites in the traditionally Alawite mountain regions. They should guarantee minority rights. Since Russia is eager to keep Syria as its own satellite, the USA should agree to a Russian-led security council approved multi-national force to police Homs, and other hot spots for a limited decided time (1-2 years) until elections can be held. Although in the short run this may look like a loss by the US, Russians citizens in the long run will hate being involved. Iran should not be allowed to participate in that force (they are already in charge of the Assad army.)
The stick by the west can be a blockade from three sides (Turkey, Iraq and Jordan) in return for added benefits to those three countries.
This reminds me of a late friend of mine whose cure for his morning hangover was to drink more of what gave him the hangover in the first place, and he never understood why he always had a headache, and was never fully sober. His cure killed him.
Beware America, and don't get conned again.
Exactly. There will be genocide on a level we have not seen since Hitler until we admit that there is no choice but to intervene militarily. The only question is how much longer it will take for the world to realize this.
If the men, women, and children weren't making a feeble attempt to defend themselves, then we'd have a genocide. Because they are, it's "civil war."